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UFC 303 Odds & Picks | Pereira vs. Prochazka

UFC 303 Odds & Picks | Pereira vs. Prochazka


Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jun 27, 2024

UFC 303 takes place at the home of the UFC – Las Vegas, Nevada – and the short-notice co-main event of Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes in the featherweight division promises to thrill on Saturday night.

After the cancellation of the originally scheduled bout between Connor McGregor and Michael Chandler was, the featherweight bout of Ortega vs. Lopes was officially set on the UFC 303 main card on June 13th.

The main card also contains a welterweight match between Ian Machado Garry and Michael Page, a women’s bantamweight fight pitting Mayra Bueno Silva against Macy Chiasson, a light heavyweight match between Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze with the main event being another light heavyweight clash between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.

As we can see from the “Pereira vs. Prochazka 2” title for UCF 303, these two have duked it out before.

Let’s dig into these UFC 303 main card fights and pinpoint some worthwhile bets to put into a hammerlock and submit.

All bouts have a tale of the tape, with the best odds included!

Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

170.5 lbs.Weight170 lbs.
74.5 inchesReach79 inches
-145 BetMGMBestOdds+130 Caesars

Garry’s capability of managing the pressure of high-profile bouts and delivering under the spotlight has cemented his status as an emerging star in the UFC – even if his outside the octagon antics put him in the headlines for other reasons.

Any publicity is good publicity for the UFC though.

Inside the octagon, Garry’s focus on solid striking and stamina should give Michael Page fits this Saturday, considering the age gap.

Although, if I looked and got around like Michael Page at 37 years old, I would be quite proud of myself.

Garry has won all seven of his fights since entering the UFC, and I have a hard time seeing one of the sports’ largest up-and-comers dropping a bout to an aging fighter coming in from Bellator.

Page won his first UFC bout, defeating Kevin Holland by unanimous decision at UFC 299, but this time around, I’m expecting Garry to bounce around the canvas and wait for Page to make the incorrect move and attempt to move inside, where Page will be met with a foot or fist.

Daniel Rodriguez suffered a similar fate at UFC Fight Night in May 2023.

I can’t fade Garry until I see a number in the loss column, and even then, fading him would still be difficult.

Pick: Garry – To Win | Best Odds: (-145) BetMGM

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

Bueno SilvaChiasson
135 lbsWeight135.5 lbs.
73 inchesReach75 inches
-110 DraftKingsBestOdds-110 BetMGM

In Mayra Bueno Silva’s last match, she fought Raquel Pennington for the vacated bantamweight title at UFC 297.

Bueno Silva came up short in her attempt at gold, losing by unanimous decision, but as the #3 contender in the division, a win over Macy Chiasson this Saturday could have her knocking on Pennington’s door.

Chiasson has gone back-and-forth in the win column over her last four bouts, with her most recent being a victory over Pannie Kianzad by way of a first-round rear naked choke back in March.

Chiasson’s specialty is getting her opponents to the canvas and choking them out, but considering that Bueno Silva has yet to be submitted, a ground victory for Chiasson won’t come easy.

This is a matchup between two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialists, and with Bueno Silva’s stronger record of getting her opponents to tap, I’d give her the edge in this near-pick’em bout.

Bueno Silva has come too close to the bantamweight title to take a step back now.

Pick: Bueno Silva – To Win | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze

205.5 lbs.Weight186 lbs.
76 inchesReach76 inches
+122 CaesarsBestOdds-138 bet365

I faded Anthony Smith in his last match against the undefeated Vitor Petrino.

Petrino was the heavy favorite and Smith was seemingly just another obstacle in the way of Petrino’s path to the light heavyweight belt.

I was wrong. Now I must stop fading Anthony “The Underdog” Smith.

For this bout against Roman Dolidze, Smith is an underdog once again.

Dolidze has lost each of his last two fights, with the most recent being a loss in February on UFC Fight Night to Nassourdine Imavov by majority decision.

Dolidze is not an undefeated youngster like Petrino, so I feel more than comfortable backing Smith in this bout.

I don’t see Dolidze going to the ground and being submitted by Smith, considering that Dolidze has not lost by submission in the UFC, but I would expect Smith to provide more striking.

In fact, I’m expecting this one to be more of a stand-up fight as these two won’t want to drain their stamina on the canvas. The number of rounds in each fighters’ matches appears to be getting larger, too.

Ultimately, I’ve learned my lesson on fading Anthony Smith.

Pick: Smith – To Win | Best Odds: (+122) Caesars

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

146 lbs.Weight157 lbs.
69 inchesReach72.5 inches
+125 bet365BestOdds-145 Caesars

Brian Ortega picked up a submission victory over Yair Rodriguez in his previous fight at UFC Fight Night back in February, which was a rebound over a knockout loss from Yair Rodriguez, way back in 2022.

Ortega has been vying for the featherweight belt for some time now, losing two featherweight title bouts, one to Max Holloway and another to Alexander Volkanovski. As the current #3 contender in the division, a title fight is still within reach.

Injuries have worked against Ortega in the past, and at this point of his career, he’s just trying to see where his fighting game is at.

“This is what’s going to test where I’m at,” Ortega said, regarding his upcoming bout with Diego Lopes.

That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence from this bettors’ point of view.

Lopes is on a three-match winning streak, with his last victory coming by knockout against Sodiq Yussuf at UFC 300, and the #14 contender is climbing the featherweight ranks.

In the lead up to UFC 303, this Ortega vs. Lopes matchup is being looked at as the potential match of the night.

Both fighters are submission specialists that have the ability to end this bout with a strike.

Ortega’s injury history has me leaning towards Lopes in this one, but this one should be a slobberknocker.

Pick: Lopes – To Win | Best Odds: (-145) Caesars

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

205 lbs.Weight206 lbs.
79 inchesReach80 inches
-148 DraftKingsBestOdds+125 bet365

UFC 303’s main event will have Alex Pereira defending his light heavywieght belt against Jiri Prochazka.

In his previous bout, Pereira defended the light heavyweight belt by knocking out Jamahal Hill at UFC 300.

Prochazka also won his last fight by knockout against Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300.

The striking in Saturday’s match could be reminiscent of Prochazka vs. Pereira 1 at UFC 295, when Pereira won with an elbow strike.

Pereira has a slightly better striking game and striking defense, but that’s not to say that Prochazka can’t throw a bow of his own.

In the divisions above middleweight, older fighters, or shall I say more seasoned fighters, tend to hold their own.

Prochazka may be more likely to attempt a takedown, and moving inside against the kickboxing Pereira is a recipe for disaster.

Pick: Pereira – To Win | Best Odds: (-148) DraftKings