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NBA Winning Margin Prediction Stats



Updated: Jun 19, 2024

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NBA Winning Margin Prediction Stats

TEAM WM arrow WM 1-5 WM 6-10 WM 11-15 WM 16-20 WM 21-25 WM 26-30 WM 31+
Trail Blazers6.00-61-50-60-60-60-60-6
Standings Last Updated: June 19, 2024 at 9:30 AM ET

Table Legend

  • WM: Average Winning Margin over all of this season’s games
  • WM 1-5: Record of Winning Margin between 1-5

NBA Winning Margin Prediction

Have you ever wondered what is a winning margin in basketball?

While most basketball bettors like betting on the moneyline or the spread, there are a few decent alternatives to such popular wagering options.

One of these is placing a bet on the winning margin.

While this may sound eerily similar to spread betting, there are a couple of deviations that make this a lucrative betting option.

The team you select needs to win the game by a specified margin. Predict correctly, and you can expect a handsome return.

But If their margin of victory is greater or less than your prediction, your wager will be settled as a loss, so accuracy is the crucial factor here.

This added risk means that you have to nail your prediction, but it also means that the odds are greater compared to spreads.

So, should you bet on the winning margin? In this article, we will cover everything you need to know about NBA winning margin betting to help you decide whether or not this is the right betting avenue for you.

Plus, we’ve included our BestOdds standings to help you make the best winning margin wagers possible.

So if you’re eager to learn more about this betting market, stick around for our analysis.

What Is NBA Winning Margin Betting?

Winning margin betting is a famous game prop bet, and the wager is as straightforward as it sounds.

Here, you’re simply predicting the number of points that a team is going to win by.

While this may seem a lot like spread betting, there are a couple of key variations here.

The main difference is that a sportsbook usually gives you a range of points to choose from and the team you select needs to win by this exact margin for your wager to land.

For instance, if you pick the Lakers to win by 1-2 points, their margin of victory has to be within this range; otherwise, your bet will be a loss.

So scores like 100-102 or 99-98 that are in favor of the Los Angeles Lakers would earn you a win in our outlined example.

But if they instead won by more than two points, e,g., 111-100, you would lose this bet as the winning margin is greater than your prediction.

And that’s the catch here and what distinguishes such bets from point spreads.

Because in point spreads, if you pick a favorite, as long as the team covers the spread, they can win by as many points as possible, and the wager will still count as a win.

However, because betting on the winning margin requires a high level of accuracy, the odds are usually higher than point spreads.

We’ll stick with the Lakers and use an upcoming game to show you precisely what we mean:

  • La Lakers (-8.5) Point Spread Odds: -110
  • La Lakers To Win By 7-9 Points: +650

Clearly, betting on the margin offers a higher return. If you bet $100 on the spread and the Lakers win the game 110-101, your projected win will be $90.90.

However, if you bet the same $100 on the Lakers to win by 7-9 points, you can win as much as $650 from this wager.

Another thing to remember is that point spread bets that focus on the underdog allow you to win the bet even without the underdog having to win the game. In winning margin betting, this isn’t possible, as the team needs to win outright.

If you enjoy betting on NBA Winning Margin, you’ll probably enjoy our NCAAB Winning Margin stats page as well.

How Does NBA Winning Margin Work?

As we’ve outlined, NBA winning margin betting focuses explicitly on the number of points that a team is going to win by.

Sportsbooks usually offer various point ranges for this wager, giving you much flexibility. E.g., you can bet on a team to win by 1-2, 3-6, 7-9, 10-12 points, etc.

So if you bet on an NBA team to win by 10-12 points, their win has to be within this range for your wager to be settled as a win.

For example, a score of 112-100 is enough for this wager to land, but scores like 107-100 or 113-100 are outside this specified range, and thus your bet won’t count as a win.

You can also go for less restrictive lines that give you more leeway and a better chance of winning, e.g., 1-5, 6-10, etc. But keep in mind that the main tradeoff here will be the odds.

As expected, tighter lines offer you greater odds but a lower chance of winning, while less restrictive ranges, like 6-10, boost your chances of winning but end up eating into your odds.

The ranges offered vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, so you need to shop wisely so that you can settle for what you prefer (better odds or a less-restrictive line).

You may also see ranges like 21+ with no upper limit. Here, your wager will be graded as a win if your team wins by the minimum specified range, which is 21 or more in our example.

Of course, it goes without saying that if the team you bet on loses, you have no chance of winning this wager at all.

How NBA Winning Margin Odds Work

Needless to say, since favorites have a greater chance of winning, their odds will be lower when compared to an underdog’s price.

Still, since this wager often requires a greater level of accuracy compared to other alternatives, the odds will usually be on the higher side, with most being positive odds (+).

Here’s an example demonstrating the prices that you can expect when placing such wagers.

Winning MarginChicago Bulls’ OddsToronto Raptors’ Odds
To Win By 1-5 Points+500+390
To Win By 6-10 Points+700+390
To Win By 11-15 Points+1200+600
To Win By 16-20 Points+2200+900
To Win By 21-25 Points+4000+1500
To Win By 26+ Points+4500+1500

As you can see, it’s easy to tell that the Raptors are the favored side as their odds are lower compared to the Bulls. Also, as the points margin increases, so do the odds.

If you think that Toronto will win by 1-5 points (+390) and you choose to back them, you’ll win $390 if you risk $100 and they win by 1 to 5 points.

On the other hand, if you fancy the Bulls and put $100 on them to beat Toronto by 1-5 points, you’ll get a profit of $500 and a total payout of $600.

As mentioned above, this wager is highly lucrative compared to point spreads, which usually have odds of -110.

Using NBA Winning Margin Table

We know that researching bets can sometimes be time-consuming, and that’s why we put together an NBA winning margin table that helps make your work easier.

The table shows you a team’s average winning margin and how often a team wins by specific ranges, starting from 1-5 points and going all the way to 21-25 and 26+.

Of course, most winning margins in the NBA are within 6-10 points, which is evident as most of the teams in the league have more wins within that range.

Depending on what you want to bet on, you can search for specific teams and see their overall record or sort by particular ranges, e.g., 1-5 points, 6-10, etc.

You can even see a team’s record as the favorite or as the underdog or sort by home and away. This will help you know the team’s scoring record at home compared to how they perform on the road.

NBA Winning Margin Betting Strategies

As with any betting option, you can improve your chances of success by implementing certain strategies.

When it comes to NBA winning margin betting, here are a few tips and strategies that we recommend:

  • Go With Lower Stakes: Betting on the winning margin is a prop bet, and such types of wagers are usually harder to win compared to conventional bets. Plus, the odds of such wagers are typically high, so a lower stake still means that you’re guaranteed a great return.
  • Consider Other Factors: Apart from judging a team’s form, you should also take other factors into account. How often does the team win by more than 5 points on the road? Does the team win by more points as the favorite or the underdog? These and many other factors are things that you should consider.
  • Shop Around: As discussed below, shopping for the best odds and lines guarantees you’ll get the best possible value from your winning margin wager.

What Are Some Variations Of This Bet?

The most common alternative to an NBA winning margin bet is the point spread, particularly a point spread bet focusing on the favorite team. This is because both wagers focus on the margin of victory that a team should win by.

If you want to stick to betting on the winning margin, you could choose to bet on a specific half or quarter instead of focusing on the whole game. That way, you can settle your wager quickly without worrying about the rest of the game.

You can also bet on the exact winning margin, that is, choosing a team to win by an exact no. of points instead of a range of points. Here, we simply mean betting on a team to win by 1 point, two points, etc., instead of 1-5 points. So if you pick a team to win by 2 points, the team has to do precisely that.

Other alternatives include switching from a 7-way bet to a 14-way bet to increase the number of options, while other books even offer a 3-way alternative.

In case you head over to a sportsbook and can’t see this wager, just know that it may also be called the margin of victory or something similar.

Shop Around

If you’re familiar with online shopping, shopping around in betting means the same thing.

Essentially, you’re chasing value by looking at various sportsbooks to ensure you get the best odds and the most favorable lines.

Let’s show you an example of what we mean:

Toronto Raptors To Win By 1-5 Points+360+390+420

You can see that the same wager has different odds at different sportsbooks.

If you had decided not to shop around and stuck with BetMGM, you would have lost a lot of value on this wager, as both FanDuel and DraftKings boast better odds.

FanDuel, in fact, offers this at a juicy +420!

So if you were to risk $100 on this wager, you’d only win $360 at BetMGM and would have lost out on the extra $60 that the same wager would have yielded had you placed it at FanDuel.

Looking for more stats? Check out the NBA Team Total Betting Stats for betting.


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