2024 AFC South Odds
Malcolm Darnley
Updated: Aug 11, 2023
Here is the state of the AFC South Division: The Football Gods gifted Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis by sticking a hapless, three-win team in their division.
Yet, the three wins the Houston Texans had last year came at the expense of Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis.
The reality is, at least in 2022, there were no great teams in the AFC South division.
Of the four teams, only Jacksonville finished above .500, and that was just.
| Team | 2022 Overall | 2022 Divisional |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-8 | 4-2 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7-10 | 3-3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-12-1 | 1-4-1 |
| Houston Texans | 3-13-1 | 3-2-1 |
Based on the win totals set for all four teams this year, it doesn’t look like 2023 will be much different.
Only Jacksonville is set above nine wins (+9.5 wins), with everyone else in the division expected to be below .500.
That said, to be successful as an NFL bettor, you don’t need to restrict yourself to betting only on great teams.
If a team is very bad, and you know they are very bad – then an opportunity to win a bet exists.
In our article below, we discuss:
- 2023 AFC South – Win Totals
- 2023 AFC South – Super Bowl
- 2023 AFC South – Division Winner
- AFC South – Player Awards Betting
Let’s Go!
2023 AFC South Win Totals
Last year, Trevor Lawrence and his Jaguars took a big step forward by finishing at 9-8, winning the division and making the playoffs.
Lawrence himself took significant strides in his improvement as an NFL starting quarterback.
This year, the +9.5 win total set for the Jags suggests they will take another step forward, but it will be a much smaller step than what they took last year.
2023 AFC South – Win Totals
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +9.5 | O -150 | +9.5 | O -150 | +10 | O -110 |
| Tennessee Titans | +7.5 | O +110 | +7.5 | O +104 | +7.5 | O +120 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +6.5 | O -135 | +6.5 | O -128 | +6.5 | O -125 |
| Houston Texans | +6.5 | O +110 | +6.5 | O +110 | +6.5 | O +120 |
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have a win total of +8.5 this year, which is the least amount of wins set for any of the teams in the AFC North. Meanwhile, in the AFC South, only Jacksonville is projected above .500.
- Big things were expected in Indianapolis last year, and they had a disastrous 3-13-1 season. Hard to gauge who the Colts will be in 2023. They might be much better, or they might be much worse than that +6.5 total. Get the homework right with Indy, and there might be an opportunity with the Colts.
2023 AFC South – To Win Super Bowl Odds
In 2021, Jacksonville won just three games. In 2022 they bounced back to win nine.
If that progression trend continues in 2023, then maybe Trevor Lawrence can lead his Jags to the promised land.
At +2500 and playing in a terrible division, some bettors will like Jacksonville as a Super Bowl long shot, specifically because they should have a clear path to the playoffs.
AFC South Teams – Super Bowl Odds
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Tennessee Titans | +8000 | +7500 | +10000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +10000 | +10000 | +12500 |
| Houston Texans | +20000 | +18000 | +20000 |
If you squint hard enough and use your imagination, you can see a potential path for the Jags to be crowned NFL Champs — with a clear path to the playoffs, it’s an interesting futures bet to consider.
If you are into betting division winner long shots, shopping for your Best Odds is imperative.
Caesars offers Tennessee at +10000, and FanDuel lists them at +7500.
That is a massive difference in a potential ROI %, simply by shopping for the Best Odds available.
2023 AFC South – To Win Division Odds
There is no doubt that the Jaguars are the betting favorite to repeat as the AFC South champions.
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -160 | -160 | -185 |
| Tennessee Titans | 360 | 350 | 325 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 600 | 500 | 600 |
| Houston Texans | 800 | 950 | 950 |
It’s very interesting to look back at last year’s AFC South division odds.
The Tennessee Titans were the betting favorite at -158. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars were +444 and paid out nicely for anyone able to invest in them at that number.
This year, a $10 wager on Jacksonville (-160) pays out $6.25 in profit.
A $5 wager on Indianapolis (+600) pays out $30 in profit, and a $5 wager on Tennessee (+360) pays out $18 in profit.
If you are prepared to bet one unit on the AFC South division, would you rather one unit on the clear betting favorite or half a unit each on Tennessee and Indianapolis?
Different strategies work for different bettors.
2023 AFC South – Player Awards Odds
Heading into the 2022 season, odds suggested the Houston Texans were in for a disappointing season.
The Texans lived up to those expectations and earned themselves the second overall pick in the 2023 draft with a 4-13 record.
With the second overall pick, the Houston Texans selected quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Stroud is a fun pick to discuss because the Carolina Panthers selected QB Bryce Young just before him.
Young and Stroud will forever be linked by the 2023 Draft.
From a betting standpoint – before either player takes their first snap in the NFL, the odds for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award (O-ROY Award), look like this:
2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – Odds
| Player & Position | Team | Odds |
| Bijan Robinson RB | Atlanta Falcons | +250 |
| Bryce Young QB | Carolina Panthers | +500 |
| Anthony Richardson QB | Indianapolis Colts | +600 |
| CJ Stroud QB | Houston Texans | +750 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | Seattle Seahawks | +800 |
Franchise quarterbacks can be difficult to find. Finding one who can step in and immediately make an impact is even more rare.
Running back Bijan Robinson wasn’t selected until the 8th pick overall this past draft. However, that reflects more on his RB position than his talent.
QB Anthony Richardson was drafted 4th overall by the Colts. Interesting that the third QB selected in the draft has shorter odds to win the O-ROY than the second QB drafted.
It will be fun to watch how Young, Stroud, and Richardson all perform and to compare them against each other this year and for many years to come.
Interesting AFC South Bets to Consider
In the 2022 NFL draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars surprised nobody when they selected Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick.
Lawrence struggled under Head Coach Urban Meyer in his first season with Jacksonville. In fact, the entire Jags team underperformed under Meyer.
In his second year, Lawrence took several strides to further his development as an elite passer.
Trevor Lawrence to lead NFL in passing yards
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | Caesars |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2200 | +1600 | +1500 |
Coming out of school, the projections for Lawrence were extremely high. After two seasons in the NFL, the hype around the Jaguars starting QB is not as high as it once was.
However, there is an opportunity with DraftKings for those who believe Lawrence is about to take that next step to stardom.
At +2200 odds, a $10 wager on T-Law to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2023 pays out $220 in profit.
Those +2200 odds with DK appear to be an outlier, with the rest of the market closer to +1500 or +1600.
Last year, Lawrence had six regular season games with at least 275 yards passing, finishing 10th in the league in total passing yards.
Assuming he continues to develop at the position, +2200 might seem like huge value halfway through the 2023 season.
Always Shop Around
There is no better feeling than spending time in the data science lab analyzing the data and stats and then using that information to help win a bet.
Professional sports bettors spend hours and hours doing their homework and analyzing data, trying to gain edges as small as 3% or 4% in their favor.
In fact, if a sharp bettor believes they have a 5% edge based on the odds, they will usually see that as an opportunity to place a very big wager.
As recreational bettors, many of us also enjoy spending time in the data science lab, analyzing data, and developing our strategies.
However, it is important to note the single greatest edge any bettor has against the sportsbooks is our ability to shop around for the Best Odds available.
Looking at the odds for Trevor Lawrence to lead the NFL in passing yards this year, we can see odds that vary between +1500 and +2200.
As a bettor, there is a huge difference in profit when betting +1500 or +2200.
When you shop around for the Best Odds available every time you bet, you can increase your overall profit by an additional 20% or 25%.
If your goal is to be a long-term profitable sports bettor, there is no bigger advantage than our ability to shop around for the Best Odds.
Betting Odds For AFC Divisions
About the author
Malcolm loves to watch all kinds of different sports. He also writes about them.
