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2024 NFL Passing Touchdowns Odds


Malcolm Darnley

Updated: Sep 25, 2023

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While playing for the Green Bay Packers in 1932, Arnie Herber led the NFL in:

  • Passing attempts (101),
  • Completions (37),
  • Passing yards (639),
  • and set the single-season passing touchdown record with nine. (9)

To say the offensive style of play in professional football has changed since then is a bit of an understatement.

NFL quarterbacks are being asked to do more with their arm now than ever before, including throwing a lot more TD passes than 9 in a single season.

Of course, few would be surprised to learn that the NFL G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, led the league in touchdown passes five times.

Odds To Lead League In TD Passes – 2023

Who leads the NFL in passing touchdowns?

PlayerOdds2022 TD Passes
Patrick Mahomes+35041
Joe Burrow+60035
Justin Herbert+60025
Josh Allen+60035

Many NFL experts believe quarterback play and QB depth around the league are at an all-time high.

When it comes to throwing a lot of TD passes, many gunslingers are capable of leading the league in this category.

However, Patrick Mahomes and his league-leading 41 TD passes in 2022 definitely stand out above the pack.

Mahomes begins the year as the betting favorite, but with so many talented QBs across the league, there is a lot of value to be found as you slide down the odds board.

How Is The Winner Decided?

This one is pretty easy to decide. The winner is the quarterback who has thrown for the most touchdown passes once the regular season ends.

  • This bet doesn’t include the playoffs
  • This isn’t a statistical average of TD passes per game
  • Whoever throws the most touchdown passes at the end of the NFL regular season will be named the Winner

2022 NFL Passing Touchdown Leaders

Player2022 Passing TDsTeam
Patrick Mahomes41KC Chiefs
Joe Burrow35CIN Bengals
Josh Allen35BUF Bills
Geno Smith30SEA Seahawks
Kirk Cousins29MIN Vikings
Jared Goff29DET Lions
Aaron Rodgers26GB Packers
Tom Brady25TB Buccaneers
Justin Herbert25LA Chargers
Tua Tagovailoa25MIA Dolphins
Trevor Lawrence25JAX Jaguars

2023 NFL Passing Touchdowns Odds

Hard to believe that well into his 40s, Tom Brady was still leading the NFL in total passing touchdowns as recently as 2021.

With Brady now retired, there is a list of impressive young quarterbacks who look ready to take over as the game’s best QB.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson headline a group of young NFL QBs capable of putting up incredible stats.

Let’s dive into all who have a shot at leading the league in total passing touchdowns this year.

The Favorites

Patrick Mahomes (+350) Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in passing touchdowns for the second time in his young career, throwing up an impressive 43 last year.

Along with his 43 touchdown passes, Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards per game, with over 308.

300-yard games are definitely more common in the NFL, but to average 308 per game is pretty special.

When it comes to weapons, the Chiefs are not loaded at the WR position. Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are not household names.

However, you have heard of Chiefs TE – Travis Kelce.

The future NFL Hall of Famer continues to be a TD threat and is Mahomes’ favorite target. Kelce has 32 touchdowns in the last three years combined.

Josh Allen (+600) Buffalo Bills

At +700 to win the NFL MVP Award this year, only Patty Mahomes has shorter odds than Bills QB Josh Allen to be named the game’s best player.

In 2022, Allen threw for just under 270 yards per game. However, the dual-threat QB also rushed for almost 50 yards per game.

Those are MVP-type stats, especially considering the Bills are a true Super Bowl contender.

There has been some drama in Buffalo this past off-season, with the Bills downplaying the impact of Stefon Diggs publicly speaking out and sharing frustrations about the team and the offense.

Allen says there is no issue between him and his star receiver and that they are both just fiery competitors.

I’m not sure I believe him fully – and the risk that something escalates during the season might scare me off Allen for this bet.

Joe Burrow (+600) Cincinnati Bengals

Regarding weapons, Joe Burrow has options in Cincinnati.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, there is no doubt that between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, many touchdown passes will be caught in Cincinnati endzones this year.

In only three seasons in the league, Burrow has developed a reputation as one of the league’s top passers.

In 16 regular season games last year, the former number-one overall pick threw for 4,475 yards.

A 5,000-yard passing season is not out of reach for Burrow. Over the last two seasons, the Bengals signal-caller has thrown for 69 touchdown passes in 32 games.

No doubt, in 2023, he will once again throw many more.

The Contenders

Justin Herbert (+600) Los Angeles Chargers

With 4,700 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes in 2022, Justin Herbert again had a great statistical season.

However, the third-year QB is probably a little disappointed at what he accomplished last year.

The 25 touchdown passes are 13 fewer than he threw in 2021 while playing the same number of games in both seasons. (17)

In 2020, Herbert was part of a QB draft class that saw Joe Burrow (1), Tua Tagovailoa (5), and Herbert (6) all drafted very early on.

All three quarterbacks have big expectations in 2023, Herbert included.

Expect a significant upgrade from the 25 TD passes he threw last year.

Kirk Cousins (+1200) Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings won 13 football games last year. A ridiculous amount of them (11) were one-score, close games.

Heading into the playoffs, the Vikings were being touted as potentially overrated, where, sure enough, they lost at home to the NY Giants in the opening round.

The Minnesota offense will look different in 2023 because all-world running back Dalvin Cook has moved on from Minnesota. 

However, the Vikings still have Justin Jefferson returning in 2023, and last year, the former LSU wide receiver proved to be the best player at his position league-wide.

Over the last eight years as an NFL starting QB, Cousins has been healthy enough to play in every game except for one. This guy is a workhorse who can play through injury.

In his last three years, the former 2012 fourth-round pick has 97 touchdown passes, including 29 last year.

Aaron Rodgers (+1400) New York Jets

Mike McCarthy, Olivia Munn, his brother Jordan Rodgers – the list of people who have a beef with new Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is long, but so are all his accomplishments on the football field.

In 2020 and 2021, Rodgers was so on his game that he managed to win back-to-back NFL MVP awards. Packers fans were hoping for a three-peat in 2022, but it was a worst-case scenario that played out instead.

Rodgers and the Packers organization had a public split.

Rodgers appears quick to dislike and also seems to hold a grudge.

He might throw the most TD passes in 2023 while with his new team in New York, just to prove to the Packers organization they made a big mistake letting him go.

Great Value Bets

Tua Tagovailoa (+1600) Miami Dolphins

Among all NFL starting QBs in 2022, Tua Tagovailoa was one of five who managed to average over 270 passing yards per game, and one of them (Tom Brady) has retired.

Dolphins fans had concerns starting in 2021 about Tua as a QB. Today, Miami knows they have one of the best at the QB position when he can stay healthy and on the field.

In 13 games last year, the Dolphins signal caller threw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns.

In 2023, the Dolphins return Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at the WR position. There are a lot of great WR duos across the league, but Hill and Waddle just might be the best.

If Tua can find a way to play all 17 regular season games, he might be a great long shot to win this bet.

Trevor Lawrence (+1800) Jacksonville Jaguars

You can draw some parallels between the early careers of Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

Specifically, I am referring to some rookie season issues that made many of us forget they were number one overall draft picks who were also Heisman winners while in college.

As a rookie, Burrow injured his ACL and missed many games. Fans forgot about him until he reminded us all that he is Joe Burrow.

With Trevor Lawrence, it wasn’t an injury, but Urban Meyer, who set back the whole Jacksonville franchise during his rookie season.

However, Lawrence showed many flashes of brilliance last year, including an incredible come-from-behind playoff victory.

Lawrence was a decorated college QB and the consensus number-one overall NFL pick. He has been trending in the right direction in his brief two-year career, and year three could yield MVP-type stats.

If there was concern about Trevor for this bet, it’s that the Jags aren’t loaded with big-name playmakers at the WR position.

NFL Passing Touchdowns Betting Strategies

Let’s not overthink this bet; there isn’t much to it.

The first thing that jumps out when reviewing the historical data is that quarterbacks rarely repeat as the league leader in touchdown passes.

Drew Brees was the last player to lead the league in passing touchdowns two years in a row.

That was back in 2011 and 2012.

Before Brees, you must go back to Brett Favre, who finished as the league leader in passing TDs three years in a row, starting in 1995.

There is also a bit of randomness to this stat.

Aaron Rodgers had 48 TD passes in 2020, but in 2021, he had “only 37” while winning the MVP award.

Always Shop Around

The best strategy advice a bettor can have for this wager is to shop around for their Best Odds.

Suppose you find Tua Tagovailoa at +1600 at one sportsbook and +2000 at another.

In that case, you can give yourself the best possible payout and, in the long term, your best opportunity to be a profitable bettor.

Identify 3 – 5 different QBs that you like and go odds shopping.

Giving yourself the Best Odds for the players you want to bet on is your best chance of earning long-term profit.

NFL Total Passing Touchdowns Leaders – Last 10 Years

YearPlayerTotal Passing TDsTeam
2022Patrick Mahomes43Chiefs
2021Tom Brady43Buccaneers
2020Aaron Rodgers48Packers
2019Lamar Jackson36Ravens
2018Patrick Mahomes50Chiefs
2017Russell Wilson34Seahawks
2016Aaron Rodgers40Packers
2015Tom Brady36Patriots
2014Andrew Luck40Colts
2013Peyton Manning55Broncos

How To Bet On Passing TDs Betting Odds

Here’s how you can bet on the Passing TDs leader for 2021:

1. Log into your sportsbook account.

2. Click on the ‘Odds for the NFL’ tab.

3. Go to the ‘Player Futures’ section.

4. Select the ‘Most Passing TDs’ submenu.

5. Pick the QB you want to bet on.

6. Place the bet on the bet-slip window shown in the right-hand side of your screen.


About the author

Malcolm loves to watch all kinds of different sports. He also writes about them.