2022 Passing Touchdowns Betting Odds

While playing for the Green Bay Packers in 1932, Arnie Herber led the NFL in passing attempts (101), completions (37), yards (639), and set the single-season passing touchdown record with nine. 

To say the offensive style of play in professional football has changed since then would be a bit of an understatement.

NFL quarterbacks are being asked to do more with their arm now than ever before. 

In 1984, a young Dan Marion threw 48 touchdowns and set the record for the most TD passes in a single season.

Marino’s record would stand for 20 years until Peyton Manning threw 49 playing for the Indianapolis Colts in 2004.

Almost a decade later, Manning would break his record, tossing an unbelievable 55 touchdowns during the 2013 season. That is an average of nearly 3.5 TD passes per game.

Of course, few would be surprised to learn that the NFL G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, has led the league in touchdown passes five times.

At age 44, Brady shows no signs of slowing down, as he led the league in passing TDs last season with 43.

How Is The Winner Decided?

Same as other statistical competitions, the one who gets the most wins. Simple. Tom Brady had 43 in 2021.

PlayerTotal Passing TDsTeam
Tom Brady43Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matthew Stafford41Los Angeles Rams
Justin Herbert38Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes37Kansas City Chiefs
Dak Prescott37Dallas Cowboys
Aaron Rodgers37Green Bay Packers
Josh Allen36Buffalo Bills
Joe Burrow34Cincinnati Bengals
Kirk Cousins33Minnesota Vikings
Carson Wentz27Indianapolis Colts

2022 NFL Passing Touchdowns Odds

Passing TDs Betting Odds Reports

Hard to believe that well into his 40s, Tom Brady is still leading the NFL in total passing touchdowns in a season.

As Brady continues to do Brady-like things, there are a lot of impressive young quarterbacks who look ready to take over as the game’s best QB.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson headline a group of young NFL QBs capable of putting up incredible stats.

Let’s dive into all who have a shot at leading the league in total passing touchdowns this year.

The Favorites

Justin Herbert – Justin Herbert is doing things in the NFL that most QBs in their early 20s are incapable of doing.

At age 24, Herbert already has 9,350 career passing yards, and 69 career touchdown passes in only 32 career starts.

Last season, the former Oregon QB had seven games of at least three touchdown passes and ended the year with 14 TD tosses in his final six games.

It feels like just a matter of time before Herbert leads the NFL in total TD passes; this could be the first year he does it, with many more to come.

Patrick Mahomes – In his first full year as an NFL starting QB, Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes in a single season, and the football world took notice.

Mahomes had another excellent year with 37 TD strikes through the air in 2021 but compared to his 50 a couple of years earlier, it hardly stands out.

In his final five regular-season games, the 26-year-old had 12 TD passes. That kind of pace this year would put him over 40 for the year.

Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill this past offseason. Bettors will have to decide how much the loss of one of the game’s best deep threats will impact the Chiefs offense, if at all.

Tom Brady – For the fifth time in his Hall of Fame career, Tom Brady led the league in total TD passes. 2002 was the first time Brady led the league in passing touchdowns, and almost 20 years later, he did it again.

With 300+ games started in his career, the NFL G.O.A.T. has the most touchdown passes in NFL history, and this year he will continue to pad his lead.

Even though he is 44 years old, it would be foolish to expect Brady won’t have another MVP-type year.

The Contenders

Matthew Stafford – Last year in the NFL, there were two quarterbacks who threw at least 40 touchdown passes.

Tom Brady was one, and Matthew Stafford was the other. After years of putting up big numbers and lots of losses with the Detroit Lions, Stafford was able to win a championship in his first season with the Rams.

Last year was the second time in 13 years Stafford had thrown for over 40 TDs in a single season.

With Cooper Kupp returning, there is no doubt that the NFL’s best pass-catching duo will again put up big numbers this year.

Joe Burrow – In his rookie season Joe Burrow was busy living up to big expectations before being derailed by a torn ACL injury after only ten games.

With many wondering how the second-year pivot would respond, all Burrow did was go out and throw for over 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns.

At 25 years old and with only 26 career starts. Burrow is still learning on the job. With a Super Bowl appearance in only his second season in the league, the former first overall pick has set a high bar for his third year.

Josh Allen – Because Josh Allen already has four years of experience in the NFL, many of us forget that he is just 26 years old to start the season.

Allen had his best year in the league last season and was listed as the odds favorite for NFL MVP this year with many sportsbooks.

The former seventh overall pick of the 2018 draft, Allen and his Buffalo Bills have Super Bowl or bust expectations heading into this year.

The Bills will again put a lot of points on the board, and Allen and his right arm will again be the main reason.

Great Value Bets

Russell Wilson – At 33 years of age, Russell Wilson is one of the senior members on our list of QBs who could lead the league in TD passes this season.

Last year, Wilson threw for 25 touchdowns, which was his fewest total since the 2016 season.

This year, there are great expectations for the ten-year veteran. After playing his entire career with the Seattle Seahawks, Wilson has jumped to the Denver Broncos.

Denver now has Super Bowl aspirations with Wilson as their quarterback, but it won’t be easy with fellow gunslingers Mahomes, Herbert, and Derek Carr all in the same division.

Aaron Rodgers – All Aaron Rodgers did in 2021 was win his second consecutive MVP award while throwing for over 4,100 yards and 37 touchdowns.

Maybe the most impressive stat of Them all was Rodgers throwing only four interceptions despite dropping back over 530 times last year.

There is no doubt the Packers’ aerial attack will be hurt by the departure of Davante Adams this offseason.

However, Rodgers is only one season removed from throwing 48 touchdown passes and has led the league in that category twice. Seeing him do it for the third time wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys fans watched their 2021 season end with Dak Prescott and the offense scrambling to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to get one last play-off.

Unfortunately, that last play never came.

What did happen for Prescott and his teammates last year was the further development of the Cowboys’ passing game.

The 28-year-old pivot threw a career-best 37 touchdowns, only the second time he had surpassed 30 in a season.

Prescott had 12 TD passes in the final three games of the regular season, including five against the Eagles in the last week. That could be a sign of bigger things to come in 2022.

Total Passing Touchdowns Betting Strategies

Let’s not overthink this bet; there isn’t much to it.

The first thing that jumps out when looking over the historical data is that quarterbacks seem to rarely repeat as the league leader in touchdown passes.

Drew Brees was the last player to lead the league in passing touchdowns two years in a row. That was back in 2011 and 2012.

Before Brees, you must go back to Brett Favre, who finished as the league leader in passing TDs three years in a row, starting in 1995.

There is a bit of randomness to this stat. Aaron Rodgers had 48 TD passes two seasons ago and last year had “only 37” while winning the MVP award.

Always Shop Around

Probably the best piece of strategy advice a bettor can have for this wager is to shop around for their Best Odds.

If you can find Patrick Mahomes at +900 at one sportsbook and +1200 at another sportsbook, then you have an opportunity to give yourself the best possible chance to be profitable.

Identify 3 – 5 different QBs that you like and go odds shopping.

Giving yourself the Best Odds for the players you want to bet on is your best chance at earning a profit long-term.

NFL Total Passing Touchdowns Leaders – Last 10 Years

YearPlayerTotal Passing TDsTeam
2021Tom Brady43Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020Aaron Rodgers48Green Bay Packers
2019Lamar Jackson36Baltimore Ravens
2018Patrick Mahomes50Kansas City Chiefs
2017Russell Wilson34Seattle Seahawks
2016Aaron Rodgers40Green Bay Packers
2015Tom Brady36New England Patriots
2014Andrew Luck40Indianapolis Colts
2013Peyton Manning55Denver Broncos
2012Drew Brees43New Orleans Saints

How To Bet On Passing TDs Betting Odds

Here’s how you can bet on the Passing TDs leader for 2021:

1. Log into your sportsbook account.

2. Click on the ‘Odds for the NFL’ tab.

3. Go to the ‘Player Futures’ section.

4. Select the ‘Most Passing TDs’ submenu.

5. Pick the QB you want to bet on.

6. Place the bet on the bet-slip window shown in the right-hand side of your screen.