NBA Prop Bets
Malcolm Darnley
Updated: Oct 20, 2023
Looking for NBA betting predictions for player prop bets? You can find this week’s picks here.
For dinosaurs like myself, traditionally, when we talked about betting on the NBA, we meant moneylines, point spreads and totals (O/U) betting.
However, with the recent legalization of sports betting across North America, sportsbooks today are so tech-focused that they have developed hundreds of new NBA prop bets for bettors of all skill levels and experience to enjoy.
These props can focus on different events within the game (like the first team to score 10 points), or they can be focused on specific players. (Will LeBron James score more than 26.5 points.)
For all your NBA prop betting odds, insights, and strategies, we have you covered below.
Most Popular NBA Prop Bets
Hundreds of different NBA prop bets are now available for each NBA regular season and playoff game.
We can’t detail all the different prop options available in the market, but we can dive into the most popular prop bets today.
Points, Assists, Rebounds
These bets are as straightforward as they come.
NBA Prop Betting Examples:
| NBA Prop Bet | Total (O/U) | Odds |
| LeBron James Total Points | +26.5 | Over -115 | Under -105 |
| Chris Paul Total Assists | +7.5 | Over -110 | Under -110 |
| Nikola Jokic Total Rebounds | +12.5 | Over – 120 | Under -105 |
Above, we see three player prop bets we have an opportunity to wager on.
As a bettor, our job is to analyze the total for each bet, and then evaluate that total to the moneyline of the outcome we want to wager on.
Meaning – Do we think LeBron James will score 27 or more points, and if we do, are we comfortable betting that at -115 odds?
These types of player prop bets are extremely popular, and you will see all kinds of options available, including steals, turnovers, fouls, and more.
First Player To Score
The first player to score – prop bet is more complicated than deciding if a player will go over or under his point total.
| Player | Team | Odds To Score 1st Basket |
| Devin Booker | Phoenix Suns | +400 |
| Kevin Durant | Phoenix Suns | +275 |
| Jalen Brunson | New York Knicks | +350 |
| Julius Randle | New York Knicks | +600 |
A bettor will notice that ten players start an NBA game, and a sportsbook will offer odds on all ten players to score the game’s first basket.
Now, as a bettor, we are dealing with a lot of options and trying to evaluate a lot of different odds and players.
Understanding the rules for these types of bets is essential as well. There is a version of this bet, but it is called First Player To Score. With that prop wager, the results include made free throw attempts.
In the First Player To Score A Basket prop, free throws don’t count, and a player needs to make an actual field goal during game play.
The excitement and attraction for this bet is very similar to those who love to bet on the NRFI in MLB.
The First Player To Score A Basket has you on the edge of your seat from the opening tip until a player can deliver that first hoop.
This bet is huge drama but over in a very short time.
Sometimes, we are in the mood to sweat out a 2.5-hour bet, and sometimes, we want our betting experience to be intense but over much quicker.
Of course, there is always the option to play both.
Race To 10 Points
Prop bets can be player-specific, like our examples above, or they can be what is called Team or Game Props.
With game props, we aren’t betting on the performance of individual players, but we also aren’t betting on the game’s final outcome.
The Race To 10 Points prop bet is exactly what it sounds like.
Every NBA game has a home team and a visitor team. For this wager, we get to decide which of the two teams will reach ten points first.
Like many other prop bets, this bet can be attractive for several reasons, including the fact that it is over in a very short amount of time.
Teams are averaging 100 points a game in today’s NBA, and when we are betting on one team to reach a total of just 10 points, this bet will have you sweating every make-and-miss along the way.
1st QTR O/U
Despite not having the same access to technology and resources as the operators, recreational bettors might find an advantage playing some of the more niche markets, such as NBA 1st QTR betting.
A team’s performance over the entire game does not necessarily reflect their performance in the first quarter.
Dabble in some of the more niche NBA betting markets and find out if you have any more success betting those unique game props compared to some of the more traditional markets that are far more popular and where sportsbooks spend the majority of their time.
Like all successful organizations, Sportsbooks must focus on the products that are most popular with their customers and make them the most profit.
Explore niche markets and see if you can find an edge with something a little less mainstream.
NBA Prop Betting Tools & Resources
NBA First Basket Stats Page
Did you know that the key to betting on which player will score the first basket is all about trying to predict which team will win the opening tip?
For those already familiar with First Basket Stats page, you already know that.
The 1st-Basket stats page has a lot of hard-to-find, valuable information for anyone interested in playing on this very fun player prop wager.
Where else can you find a team’s opening tip %, a player’s 1st FG attempt %, and any other relevant info you will want to know before placing your bet?
NBA 1st QTR ATS Stats Page
Finding how teams perform against the spread has become pretty mainstream, and that information isn’t overly difficult to find. But betting on NBA totals is an extremely popular wager, and those are known to be very sharp markets.
What if we instead started to look at betting just NBA 1st QTR point spreads and tried to find success in a more niche market?
The BestOdds.com 1st QTR ATS stats page provides some amazing data in an easy-to-read format, with all the information we need to make educated 1st QTR spread betting decisions.
More NBA Prop Betting Resources
BestOdds.com has become a leader in providing insights and information to help bettors of all skill levels with their NBA Prop Betting needs.
Click on any of the above links for some free and insightful NBA information to help with all your NBA prop bets.
NBA Prop Betting Tips
Money Management
Ah, money management. It is one of the most talked about phrases that I actually struggle to define.
In this case, I want to draw attention to some of the different odds and pricing that will be regularly available when we are prop betting and how that can impact our money strategy.
Example – 1st Basket Scorer Odds
| Player | Team | To Score 1st Basket |
| Jrue Holiday | Boston Celtics | +450 |
| Jaylen Brown | Boston Celtics | +550 |
| Jayson Tatum | Boston Celtics | +350 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Boston Celtics | +650 |
Above are some hypothetical odds I created for our example.
The Boston Celtics are terrifying for opposing NBA defenses, and there is a compelling argument for any of those players listed above to score the game’s first basket – assuming you like Boston’s chances of winning the game’s opening tip.
If we zoom in on Kristaps Porzingis and his +650 odds specifically, what does that actually mean in terms of a probability percentage?
According to the BestOdds.com Betting Calculator, +650 odds mean a 13.33% chance of Porzingis scoring the game’s opening basket.
Considering all the talent just on his own team, maybe those odds aren’t far off.
Show Me The Math
If the Boston Celtics played 100 basketball games and scored the first basket in 55 of those 100 games, would Porzingis score the first basket 14 times or more?
This is how the financials for this type of wager can play out (Using $10 as our betting unit)
- 14 wins at +650 odds = $910 in profit ($65 / win)
- 86 losses at $10 per loss = $860 in lost money
$910 – $860 = $50 profit!
We broke down the math to show that when you are playing with odds like +650, you will suffer a lot more losses than wins, but that is okay.
You don’t need to win 50% of your bets to break even.
Another reason we wanted to do the math was to suggest that maybe splitting units up might be something you want to consider.
By splitting units, we mean that if you are a $10 bettor, when you are playing this type of wager, you might want to put $5 on Porzingis and $5 on Jrue Holiday as well.
Always document your wagers. Keeping track of our betting history and money management decisions allows us to develop strategies and learn from our past betting history.
Why Is NBA Prop Betting So Popular?
Sports betting is only starting to legalize across North America, and it is relatively new for most states. However, NBA fantasy sports leagues and NBA DFS betting products have been around for a very long time.
Today’s NBA betting consumer has spent the last decade playing NBA fantasy and daily fantasy games. (DFS) They understand player performance and player capabilities as well or better than they understand how many teams are expected to perform.
For the last decade, consumers haven’t been able to gamble on the outcome of a game legally, but they have been wagering and investing time trying to determine how individual players will perform.
Fantasy leagues and daily fantasy sports betting products are really just another form of player prop betting.
Most of us have a favorite NBA team we root for, but what excites us as fans after that?
How much do we know about the Dallas Mavericks as a team?
- How do they match up at every position vs their next opponent?
- What is their current injury status and their current rotation?
- How does their second unit match up against their next opponent on the road?
Or, how much do you know about Dirk Nowitzki? More importantly, what is your comfort level betting only on his performance, as opposed to betting on his team, the Dallas Mavericks?
If you are from Dallas and watch the Mavs play regularly, you might be very comfortable betting on their point spread next game.
However, if you are from Minnesota and live 1,100 miles from Dallas but love your NBA fantasy keeper league you are in with nine of your buddies – betting on Nowitzki might be of more interest to you.
Always Shop Around
For many of us, a lot of the enjoyment with sports betting can be spending time in the data science lab, doing some data analysis, crunching numbers, and trying to make the most educated decisions based on the information we have access to.
However, bettors of all experience and skill levels must understand that our greatest advantage against the sportsbooks is our ability to shop around and play only the Best Odds for the bet we want to make.
Example – NBA SGP Odds
| Wager | Sportsbook 1 | Sportsbook 2 | Sportsbook 3 |
| LeBron James Over 26.5 PTS | O -115 | U – 105 | O -120 | U +100 | O -125 | U +1105 |
| Anthony Davis Over 18.5 PTS | O -125 | U +110 | O -110 | U -110 | O -115 | U -105 |
| SGP OVER Odds | SGP Overs +230 | SGP Overs +215 | SGP Overs +200 |
Looking at our odds table above, we can easily spot the advantage of shopping around for our Best Odds.
Imagine playing a Lakers Same Game Parlay with odds at +200 when we could shop around and find the exact same bet at +230 odds.
For a $10 bettor, the difference in profit between +200 and +230 is only $3. However, as a percentage, that represents an additional 15% profit just by shopping for our Best Odds.
On one single wager, the thought of shopping for our Best Odds available may not seem like a huge difference.
However, when we take the time to analyze our betting history and understand what an additional 15 or 20% of profit means every time we win a bet, shopping for our Best Odds just makes a lot of sense dollars.
