MLB Same Game Parlay
If you are looking for current MLB betting predictions for parlays. You can find today’s picks here.
In 2021, the American League East had four teams that won at least 91 games, including the Tampa Bay Rays who impressively recorded 100 victories.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles, who finished 5th in the AL East, won only 52 times.
In the National League West, the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers combined to win 213 games. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who also play in the NL West, won just 52 games.
Major League Baseball, maybe more than almost all other professional sports, has a real parity issue.
There are teams who are willing to spend on payroll and are competing to win and there are a lot of teams who aren’t.
From a gambling perspective, because most baseball bets are using a moneyline, oftentimes the teams we want to bet on, teams like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Boston Red Sox are not paying very good MLB odds.
This is where the beauty of a parlay, especially the same game parlay can really work to a bettors advantage.
What Is An MLB Parlay
An MLB parlay is a single bet that requires multiple outcomes to hit. A parlay bet allows a bettor to keep their stake low, but because it requires multiple events to all cash, a parlay ticket can come with some very enticing odds.
Prior to the arrival of Same Game Parlays (SGP), a traditional MLB parlay meant having to pick winners and totals from multiple baseball games.
An example of a traditional parlay bet is:
- NY Yankees to Win | -150 Odds
- Toronto Blue Jays to Win | -130 Odds
- CWS and Boston OVER 9 runs | -105
Total wager: $10 | Pay-Out $57.57 | Profit $47.47
In our example above, we created a 3-game MLB parlay. We have picked the Yankees and Blue Jays to win and the White Sox vs Red Sox game to go OVER 9 runs.
You can see that our $10 wager would return $47.47 in profit.
If we were betting on just the Yankees game, a $10 wager would payout $6.67 in profit based on the -150 moneyline.
The difference in payout between the Yankees bet and our parlay ticket gives us an understanding of why parlay tickets are so popular.
MLB Same Game Parlay Sportsbooks
The SGP originators. Still the best option.
Competitive odds and creative product mix plus generous bonus.
Easy to navigate, doesn’t always compare pricing (odds) wise.
Creative mix of products offered on top of SGP.
Competitive odds and easy interface with great BetMGM promotions.
What Is An MLB Same Game Parlay (SGP)
An MLB Same Game Parlay, often referred to as an SGP allows bettors to build parlay tickets, but no longer requires them to make selections from multiple games.
There are many different bets now available on an individual baseball game. Of course, bettors can pick a winning team or bet on the game total. (over/under) Baseball also has what is called a Run-Line bet. For a Run-Line bet, the favorite must win by 2 runs or more.
There are a huge amount of prop bets that can be a lot of fun as well. Sportsbooks now offer a lot of game props, and individual player props to choose from.
An SGP is a parlay ticket where all the bets are from the same game. An example of the same game parlay could be:
- Houston Astros to win | -140
- Toronto vs Houston OVER 9.5 runs | +110
- Alex Bregman to hit a HR | +310
In our example above, you can see a bettor has made a 3-game parlay ticket all from the Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros game.
Astros to win, game to go Over 9.5 runs, and Houston third baseman Alex Bregman is paying +310 to hit a home run.
There are many reasons why a bettor would prefer to play an SGP instead of a traditional parlay ticket. Sometimes we have a very good sense of how one particular game is going to play out.
Sometimes it’s just a simple case of only wanting to bet on and then watch our favorite team.
MLB Same Game Parlay Strategy
When it comes to being successful with SGPs, a bettor has to do a good job of creating a game narrative or script for the game and then having the actual gameplay out in a similar way they envisioned it.
By creating a game narrative, we mean a bettor must have a good sense of not just who will win or lose, but will the game be a high-scoring offensive attack, or will it be a low-scoring pitchers duel?
What hitters have an advantage against the starting pitcher, what pitchers have an advantage, and are due for a big strikeout performance?
Here is an example of an MLB SGP with a game narrative:
- Los Angeles Dodgers to win
- Walker Buehler OVER 5.5 strikeouts
- Max Fried UNDER 5.5 strikeouts
- Mookie Betts OVER 1.5 hits
The above 4-game parlay paints a very good game narrative and by looking at the 4 individual bets, we get an understanding of how the bettor expects this game to play out.
The first two bets are the Dodgers to win and the Dodgers starting pitcher to have OVER 5.5 strikeouts. That makes sense.
If Walker Buehler delivers great performance for Los Angeles, then odds are, they have a great chance to win the game.
The second and third bets are also loosely related. Max Fried is a very good starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves.
In this case, the bettor is suggesting that Max might have some problems against a very talented Dodgers lineup.
The final bet is also related to the Braves’ pitching. Although it’s likely Mookie Betts will face multiple
Braves pitchers and not just Fried, this bet is suggesting if the Dodgers win, Mookie Betts will have had a good game at the plate.
If a bettor can visualize or pre-script what the game will look like, then they have a real advantage when it comes to the same game parlays.
An important skill to develop when jumping into SGPs is understanding stat distribution and not betting against yourself.
By this we mean, if a bettor has a feeling that a team is going to have a good day offensively at the plate, then they should obviously make bets accordingly.
However, even a winning team is only going to score a certain amount of runs. The St. Louis Cardinals may score 7 or 8 runs in a game, but how many different players will hit a home run to score those runs?
It probably won’t be 5 or 6 different guys going deep? Of course, it’s possible, but it’s not very likely.
A more realistic strategy, instead of betting on four Cardinals to all hit a home run, would be to pick just one player you expect to have a big day and combine that bet with a couple of other game-related ones.
What Are Correlated Odds?
If you research Same Game Parlays, you will eventually come across the term Correlated Odds. Correlated Odds are the reason why SGPs never existed until just recently.
Correlated odds refer to multiple bets all tied to the same outcome. In baseball, there are lots of ways a bettor can take advantage of Correlated Odds.
If a bettor thinks that Zack Wheeler is going to have a dominating performance against the NY Mets, then there are a couple of different ways to bet that.
You could make the following SGP:
- Zack Wheeler Over 6 strikeouts
- NY Mets Under Team Total 4.5 runs
- Philadelphia Phillies to win
In our example above, you can see how those three outcomes could all be related. If the Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has a great game, then it’s likely the NY Mets won’t score a lot of runs.
If the Phillies get a great performance from their starting pitcher and the Mets don’t score a lot of runs, then there’s a greater than average chance the Phillies win the game.
It took oddsmakers a very long time to develop a pricing algorithm to allow for correlated odds and the creation of the same game parlays.
It is important to know that SGPs don’t payout at the same odds that traditional parlays do.
This is because there is no correlation of odds between traditional parlays that involve different events from different games.
However, when it comes to SGPs they are often built completely around correlated odds and sportsbooks adjust their pricing to factor that in.
Why Bet MLB Same Game Parlays
I think the easy answer for this is they are fun. But that theory applies to a lot of different types of sports bet available for us, so why are Same Game Parlays so much fun?
Telling A Story
For a lot of us, creating the narrative and getting a chance to bet on that storyline to play out keeps us invested in the sports and teams we love. A lot of bettors use SGPs when betting on their favorite teams.
These are the teams we are following already. These are the teams we have most likely watched on TV with great regularity and are familiar with the players at all nine positions.
So it makes a lot of sense that these are also the teams where playing an SGP might mean you do have a slight advantage on the house.
Oddsmakers are truly great at what they do, but they rely on statistics, numbers, trends. They don’t get to watch all 5000 MLB games played each year.
We should always remember, there are plenty of people who recommend you should never bet on your favorite team because as a fan we might have built in biases and have trouble being objective.
We always recommend you take the time to document all of your betting history. Even if you are an occasional, recreational gambler.
By documenting your betting history, you can see your win/loss percentage when betting on your favorite team. You will know if you have tendencies to overbet them to win or have a little bit more confidence in their starting pitching than what they are really capable of.
The last reason people love to play SGPs is that they provide a pretty cool chance to cash a big-ticket.
Go ahead and load your ticket with 3 or 4 different player props. If you picked the right narrative and the game plays out as expected, maybe you can cash a 5 or 6 leg parlay ticket.
Whatever your reason for building an SGP ticket, remember that most profitable gamblers are not basing their betting strategies around parlays.
These are fun to build and fun to play, but with the pricing provided and the difficulty of picking multiple winners, if you are breaking even with them you are probably ahead of the curve.