2023 Rushing Touchdowns Odds

2023 Rushing Touchdowns Odds

Derrick Henry ran over NFL defenders on his way to scoring an NFL-leading 33 rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 2020, combined.

Last year, the Tennessee Titans running back was the odds favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns to start the season. 

After his first seven games, Henry had over 800 yards rushing, and ten rushing touchdowns and was leading the league in both categories. 

Then, the former Heisman Trophy winner broke a bone in his foot, and his chance to lead the league in rushing touchdowns for the third straight season was over.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was a rookie in 2020 and started slowly in 2021 with only 170 yards rushing with zero TDs in his first three games.

However, from Week 4 until the end of the season, Taylor rushed for over 1600 yards and found the back of the endzone an impressive 18 times.

It was the second year running back with the Colts, who ended up as the 2021 NFL rushing touchdowns leader.

This year, Henry has fully recovered from his broken foot, and if he can remain healthy, there is no doubt he will again put up big numbers.

NFL bettors will have to decide if they like Taylor, Henry, or someone else to emerge from the pack and lead the league in rushing touchdowns for 2022.

How Is The Winner Decided?

When you grade something like touchdowns, the player who scores more rushing TDs will be declared the winner.

The 2006 season saw LaDainian Tomlinson get 28 rushing TDs, a record that stands to this day. Recently, we’ve seen Tennessee’s RB Derrick Henry dominating this category, winning it back-to-back.

2023 NFL Rushing Touchdowns Odds

NFL Rushing Touchdowns Odds Reports

Betting on the NFL running back to lead the league in rushing touchdowns is a type of NFL futures bet savvy gamblers can add to their portfolio.

With these types of bets, there can be some value to be found in the odds.

This year, a bettor will have to decide where they stand on the two clear favorites and if they believe Taylor or Henry has the head-to-head edge.

A bettor will also have to look at the odds for all the other RBs across the league and determine who else has value in their odds.

Obviously, we all believe that if healthy, Taylor and Henry will be great again this year.

However, can Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, or Najee Harris take that next step and compete with the best RBs in the game? These are the decisions an NFL bettor has to make.

The Favorites

Jonathan Taylor – The 2020 NFL draft is best remembered for Joe Burrow being drafted #1 overall and the Miami Dolphins selecting Tua Tagovailoa just ahead of Justin Herbert.

One running back was selected in the first round that year, and it was Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who Kansas City took 32nd.

The Indianapolis Colts selected Jonathan Taylor in the second round, with the 41st pick. In two seasons, Taylor has managed to rush for 2,980 yards and 29 TDs.

Last year, JT recorded 12 rushing touchdowns in his final nine games, including 4 TDs against Buffalo in a Week 11 win.

Although Derrick Henry has been dominant when healthy the last three years, Taylor is just entering his third year and has remained relatively healthy.

Will that be enough of an advantage for the young running back to repeat as the NFL rushing touchdown leader?

It might.

Derrick Henry – Derrick Henry was selected with the 45th pick overall in the 2016 NFL draft. Only one running back was chosen before Henry that year, and it was Ezekiel Elliott by the Dallas Cowboys.

Elliott has more career rushing yards than Henry, but the Titans RB has more career rushing touchdowns.

When it comes to punching the ball into the endzone, Henry is as good as there is in the league. He led the entire NFL in rushing TDs in 2019 and 2020.

In 2021, he was on pace for over 20 rushing touchdowns before getting hurt. 

Bettors will have to decide if Henry breaking a bone in his foot last year will impact his performance this year.

If they believe Henry is back to his original self, there may be some early value on his opening odds.

The Contenders

Regarding favorites for this bet, there are two clear options Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. 

However, the NFL is loaded with high-quality running backs, and there is value in our list of contenders.

Joe Mixon – Before last season, Joe Mixon had 20 rushing touchdowns in 50 career games for the Cincinnati Bengals.

The most rushing TDs Mixon had in a single season was 8. 2021 was a big breakout year for the five-year NFL veteran.

Mixon set career highs last year for rushing attempts, rushing yards, and most importantly for this bet, rushing touchdowns.

The former Oklahoma Sooner RB punched it in 13 times on the ground last year, and with that high-powered Bengals offense, he will be a threat to go over that number this year.

Dalvin Cook – The 2017 NFL draft was loaded with talented running backs.

Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, and several others were all selected that year, and all of those players have had a significant impact in the league so far.

However, when it comes to total rushing yards from RBs drafted in 2017, Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings leads the pack. 2021 was another excellent year for Cook, who quietly finished 5th overall in yards rushing.

The second-round pick out of Florida State had just six rushing TDs last year. However, in 2020, Cook scored 16 times on the ground.

Nick Chubb – Nick Chubb may not get a chance to lead the NFL in rushing yards because the Cleveland Browns also like to use Kareem Hunt to run the ball.

Chubb did manage to gain 5.5 yards per carry last year and had over 1,200 yards rushing.

The 5’11”, 227lb RB was built to run the ball into the endzone.

With 20 rushing TDs in his last 26 games, the former Georgia Bulldog should be in the mix to lead the NFL in rushing TDs this season, even if the Browns aren’t sure who their opening day QB is going to be.

Najee Harris – The 2021 NFL draft was dominated by quarterbacks. Each of the first three picks saw a QB selected, and it wasn’t until Najee Harris was drafted with the 24th overall pick did we see a running back get drafted.

After watching Harris in his rookie season last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers probably believe they were very fortunate the former Alabama star was still on the board.

Harris had 300 carries in his rookie year and 1200 yards on the ground.

With seven rushing touchdowns in his first season, NFL bettors can expect that number to continue to climb as Harris only gets better.

2021 NFL Rushing Touchdowns Leaders

Derrick Henry was the betting favorite before the season started last year, and after seven games, the odds on Henry had shortened even more.

However, injuries are a great equalizer, especially in the NFL, and a broken foot opened the door for second-year RB Jonathan Taylor.

James Connor and Damien Harris both punched it in 15 times last year.

However, the odds suggest that Joe Mixon or Ezekiel Elliott will have more rushing TDs this season than either Connor or Harris.

PlayerRushing TDsTeam
Jonathan Taylor18Colts
James Connor15Cardinals
Damien Harris15Patriots
Joe Mixon13Bengals
Austin Ekeler12Chargers
Ezekiel Elliott10Cowboys
Derrick Henry10Titans
Jalen Hurts10Eagles
Josh Jacobs9Raiders

Despite playing in just eight games last year, Derrick Henry still finished tied for sixth overall with ten rushing touchdowns.

Multiplied over a 17-game season, and Henry would have been on pace for over 20 rushing TDs last year.

NFL Rushing Touchdowns Leaders: Last 10 Years

Since 2017, there appears to have been some kind of shift in how teams score touchdowns.

We can see that from 2013 – 2016, the league leader in rushing TDs had no more than 13.

Todd Gurley, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor easily exceeded that total in the last few years.

YearPlayerRushing TDsTeam
2021Jonathan Taylor18Colts
2020Derrick Henry17Titans
2019Derrick Henry16Titans
2018Aaron Jones16Packers
2017Todd Gurley17Rams
2016Todd Gurley13Rams
2015* 4 Players Tied11N/A
2014Marshawn Lynch
DeMarco Murray
2013Jamaal Charles
Marshawn Lynch
2012Arian Foster15Texans

NFL Most Rushing Touchdowns Single Season

LaDainian Tomlinson getting to 28 TDs in a single season seems like an incredible accomplishment.

Our list of players with the most rushing TDs in a single season is loaded with Hall of Fame talent.

YearPlayerRushing TDsTeam
2006LaDainian Tomlinson28Chargers
2005Shaun Alexander27Seahawks
2003Priest Holmes27Chiefs
1995Emmitt Smith25Cowboys
1983John Riggins24Football Team
1996Terry Allen21Football Team
1998Terrell Davis21Broncos
2002Priest Holmes21Chiefs
1985Joe Morris21Giants
1994Emmitt Smith21Cowboys

Priest Holmes and Emmitt Smith are the only two names who make it onto our list twice.

Both players had a several-year run where they were considered the best all-around player at their position.

Always Find Your Best Odds

When betting on the NFL, a recreational gambler’s single most significant edge is to shop around for their best odds.

This is true for all bets, especially when placing long-term futures bets.

The odds for futures betting can vary significantly between the sportsbooks, depending on the players you want to wager on.

Where one running back might be +1000 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns at DraftKings, he could be +1300 at FanDuel.

In this scenario, a $100 bettor would see an additional profit of $300 if they had chosen their very Best Odds and won their bet.

Often, the difference between profitability or not over the long term is a bettor’s ability to shop around and play the Best Odds available.

How To Bet On Rushing TDs Betting Odds

1. Go to your sportsbook and log in.

2. Look for the tab with ‘Betting Odds on NFL.’

3. Click on ‘Player Futures.’

4. Select ‘Most Rushing TDs.’

5. Place your bet on the bet-slip window.