2023 NFL Rushing Yards Odds

With 18,355 rushing yards, Emmitt Smith is the all-time NFL rushing yards leader, ahead of Walter Payton and Frank Gore.

Smith had over 4,400 rushing attempts in his career and finished with an average of 4.2 yards per carry.

Of the top 30 running backs in NFL history, only Jim Brown and Barry Sanders were able to average at least 5 yards per carry.

Last season, Derrick Henry was on pace to lead the league in rushing for the third straight season until suffering a broken bone in his foot.

Henry would miss the season’s final nine games but still finished 9th overall in total rushing yards.

It was Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts who ran away with the rushing title last year. Taylor finished more than 500 yards ahead of Nick Chubb and 600 yards ahead of Joe Mixon.

There are many talented running backs in today’s game, and sportsbooks now provide us with many different opportunities to bet on those players.

Let’s explore some RB-specific bets available and discuss key players and strategies to set us up for success.

Most RB Rushing Yards

This futures bet is a long-term investment for a bettor.

It’s a pretty straightforward wager, where the only goal is to predict which running back will rush for the most yards throughout the season.

Remember that we are talking about total yards, not yards per carry.

As mentioned above, Jonathan Taylor was the runaway favorite in this category last year, but that was only because Titans RB Derrick Henry broke a bone in his foot.

Otherwise, Taylor would have had serious competition for his rushing yards title.

NFL Scrimmage Yards Leaders – Last 10 Seasons

Year	Player	Rushing Yrds	Team
2021	Jonathan Taylor	1,811	Colts
2020	Derrick Henry	2.027	Titans
2019	Derrick Henry	1,540	Titans
2018	Ezekiel Elliott	1,434	Cowboys
2017	Kareem Hunt	1,327	Chiefs
2016	Ezekiel Elliott	1,631	Cowboys
2015	Adrian Peterson	1,485	Vikings
2014	DeMarco Murray	1,845	Cowboys
2013	LeSean McCoy	1,607	Eagles
2012	Adrian Peterson	2,097	Vikings

Most RB Rushing TDs

When it comes to predicting the RB with the most TDs at the end of the season, there is probably a lot more variability and chance involved with this bet, compared to total rushing yards.

Touchdowns are great, but for a running back, they can be out of their control most of the time.

If a coach calls a pass play while inside the 5-yard line or if the quarterback keeps it at the 1-yard line, there isn’t much an RB can do.

Last season, James Connor, Damien Harris, and Austin Ekeler all finished inside the Top 5 for RB touchdowns, yet none of those running backs reached 1,000 yards on the ground.

This bet requires a lot of homework and maybe just a little luck.

2021 NFL Rushing Touchdown Leaders

Player	Rushing TDS	Team
Jonathan Taylor	18	Colts
James Connor	15	Cardinals
Damien Harris	15	Patriots
Joe Mixon	13	Bengals
Austin Ekeler	12	Chargers
Ezekiel Elliott	10	Cowboys
Derrick Henry	10	Titans
Jalen Hurts	10	Eagles
Josh Jacobs	10	Raiders
Nick Chubb	8	Browns

RB Totals: Rushing Yards Over/Under

NFL betting odds on NFL player props are available at all legal sportsbooks in your state/province.

If you enjoy the running back position, there are plenty of player props to bet on.

A running backs total for rushing yards can be played as a season-long futures bet or weekly prop bet.

Key Strategy

There are plenty of resources available that specialize in player projections.

These sites are valuable because they don’t factor in the media hype and recency bias that many gamblers must battle.

Instead, these resources try to accurately project a player’s short- and long-term performance without bias.

When handicapping your RB futures and prop bets, don’t be afraid to include some resources that specialize in NFL player projections.

They can help identify value and some best bets to make.

RB Totals: Rushing TDs Over/Under

Betting the Over / Under for a running backs touchdowns is another type of wager that can be done as a season-long future bet or as a week-to-week player prop bet.

This is just like the total rushing yards bet options, except with touchdowns, there can be much more variability and chance in play.

From a strategy standpoint, using some trusted projection sites can once again be a gambler’s friend.

Sportsbooks must account for the general public’s viewpoint and tendencies when setting odds. Projection sites try to remain neutral and objective with their analysis.

RB Totals: Rushing + Receiving Yards Over/Under

Today, an NFL offense is designed to throw the ball more than ever before, and that means running backs must possess the threat to run and catch the ball.

No longer is the NFL a game of handing the ball off on first down and hoping for 3-yards and a cloud of dust.

Instead, RBs have become specialized at catching the ball as well.

When evaluating an NFL RB in today’s game, we must factor in their total yards from scrimmage, a combination of their rushing and receiving totals.

2021 NFL Running Back Yards From Scrimmage Leaders

Player	Rushing Yrds	Receiving Yrds	Total Yrds
Jonathan Taylor	1,811	360	2,171
Najee Harris	1,200	467	1,667
Austin Ekeler	911	647	1,558
Joe Mixon	1,205	314	1,519
Nick Chubb	1,259	174	1,433
Alvin Kamara	898	439	1,337
Ezekiel Elliott	1,002	287	1,289
Leonard Fournette	812	454	1,266
Josh Jacobs	872	348	1,220
Javonte Williams	903	316	1,219

Who Will Have The Most Rushing Yards In 2021?

The Favorites

Jonathan Taylor – Maybe it’s because getting tackled over 300+ times in a season isn’t a long-term recipe for success, but history tells us that it is hard for running backs to repeat as NFL champions.

However, Jonathan Taylor has a chance to do just that.

At only 22 years of age, Taylor became the youngest RB to record 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 TDs in a season.

He also took 77.3% of the backfield carries for the Colts last year. If Indianapolis is willing to give Taylor the same workload this year, no doubt he will be near the top of the total rushing yards list.

Derrick Henry – The Tennessee Titans built an offense around Derrick Henry, getting a lot of carries and a lot of tough yards.

For two seasons, it worked great, and Henry led the league in rushing. Then he broke a bone in his foot last year and was forced to miss the remaining 9-games.

Before breaking his foot, Henry had another impressive season running the ball and was on pace to be right there with Jonathan Taylor for total rushing yards when the season ended.

An optimistic bettor will think Henry could benefit this year from missing all those last year’s games.

The pessimistic gambler might fear he is injury prone after so many carries during his time in the league.

Value Betting Options

Dalvin Cook – In 2020, Dalvin Cook had 1,557 rushing yards in just 14 games and entered last year as a genuine contender for the league rushing title.

Unfortunately, 2021 saw Cook miss four games, and he was never really a rushing title threat.

When he does dress, Cook is productive. For his career, he has a 4.7 yards per carry average.

The 5-year veteran also averages over 25 yards receiving per game and has one season where he averaged 37 receiving yards per game.

Nick Chubb – Nick Chubb is a very effective runner and, in 2021, was second in the NFL in yards after contact.

Head Coach Kevin Stefanski likes to run the ball more than most, and there is no doubt Cleveland will be near the top of the league in rushing yards again this year.

However, when everyone is healthy in Cleveland, Chubb becomes part of a two-headed beast when it comes to running the ball.

Kareem Hunt also gets plenty of touches in the Browns backfield. Can Hunt do a better job of staying healthy this year?

Even if Hunt plays, will Chubb get enough carries still to threaten for the league rushing title? These are the decisions a bettor must weigh.

NFL Rushing Leaders – Last 15 Seasons

Year	Player	Team	Rushing Yrds
2021	Jonathan Taylor	Colts	1,811
2020	Derrick Henry	Titans	2,027
2019	Derrick Henry	Titans	1,540
2018	Ezekiel Elliott	Cowboys	1,434
2017	Kareem Hunt	Chiefs	1,327
2016	Ezekiel Elliott	Cowboys	1,631
2015	Adrian Peterson	Vikings	1,485
2014	DeMarco Murray	Cowboys	1,845
2013	LeSean McCoy	Eagles	1,607
2012	Adrian Peterson	Vikings	2,097
2011	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jaguars	1,606
2010	Arian Foster	Texans	1,616
2009	Chris Johnson	Titans	2,006
2008	Adrian Peterson	Vikings	1,760
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson	Chargers	1,474

Always Shop Around

It is always a good idea for a bettor to shop around for their Best Odds.

When it comes to Futures betting and Player Props, it’s an even better idea to shop around because the chance for odds discrepancy amongst sportsbooks is so much higher.

If you like Dalvin Cook you might find him at +900 with one operator, but another sportsbook might have him at +1200. On a $100 bet, that is a difference of $300 in profit if Cook delivers.

Shopping around for your Best Odds is the greatest edge a bettor has over the sportsbooks.