2024 NFL Passing Yards Odds
Malcolm Darnley
Updated: Sep 8, 2023
The NFL season is upon us!
Those who follow the NFL know that success on the field, especially with a team’s offense, begins and ends with the quarterback position.
Fifteen of the last 16 NFL MVP award winners have been quarterbacks.
Not only is today’s quarterback expected to be able to throw the football where it needs to go, but they are also looked upon as another coach on the field.
QBs give direction to their teammates, and audible out of plays at the line of scrimmage, all while controlling the game’s tempo.
It’s no wonder that sports bettors love to place futures bets around the performance of their favorite passers.
Below, we walk you through some of the many betting options on NFL QBs and give you some insight into strategies and key players to watch.
QB Prop Betting – Total Passing Yards
Betting which QB will lead the NFL in passing is a very straightforward wager.
Before the season starts, sportsbooks will provide NFL odds on all the different QBs to lead the league in total passing yards.
As a bettor, your job is to identify the QB with the most total passing yards at the end of the regular season.
It’s important to remember that we are looking for the total yards thrown by a QB, not their average passing yards per game.
Sometimes, a QB will miss a game or two during the season. When a QB misses a game, it doesn’t impact their average passing yards per game stat.
For example, Mike White of the New York Jets finished with a 298 passing yards per game average in 2022.
That ranked second, behind only Patrick Mahomes, on a per-game basis.
However, White finished 36th in total passing yards because he only played in four games and finished with just over 1,100 yards.
2023 NFL QBs – Total Passing Yards
The NFL has come a long way since the introduction of the forward pass.
| NFL Pass YDS Leader | Total Passing Yards | Team |
| 1932 – Arnie Herbert | 692 Yards | Green Bay Packers |
| 1950 – Bobby Layne | 2,323 Yards | Detroit Lions |
| 1970 – John Brodie | 2,941 Yards | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1990 – Warren Moon | 4,689 Yards | Houston Oilers |
| 2010 – Philip Rivers | 4,710 Yards | San Diego Chargers |
| 2022 – Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 Yards | Kansas City Chiefs |
In 2022, Patrick Mahomes lost superstar wideout Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins and still threw for over 5,000 yards, leading the league in that category.
Mahomes is the betting favorite to repeat this year.
Top Contenders
Patrick Mahomes +250 To Lead League
There was nobody better at throwing the football last year than Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs QB was the only player to throw for more than 5,000 yards in 2022, finishing with 5,250.
Mahomes threw for so many yards that it helped lead to his second career MVP trophy. In 2022, the 2017 tenth overall pick averaged over 300 passing yards per game.
This year, Mahomes is the betting favorite to repeat as the winner of this bet.
- His detractors point to the lack of household names at the WR position for Kansas City.
- His supporters point to his 5,000+ passing yards last year, the first year without Tyreek Hill.
Justin Herbert +450 To Lead League
With over 4,700 passing yards in 2022, Justin Herbert at least challenged Patrick Mahomes for the title of Best QB in the AFC West.
The LA Chargers QB averaged 279 passing yards per game last season and has now thrown for at least 4,300 yards in each of his three years in the league.
Like many other QBs on this list, Herbert is also a Top 5 betting favorite for the NFL MVP award. In 2021, the former 6th-overall pick threw for over 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns.
If he can repeat those same numbers this year, Herbert will warrant MVP consideration at least.
Joe Burrow +800 To Lead League
In 2020, fresh off winning a National Championship with LSU, Joe Burrow heard his name called as the first overall pick in the NFL draft.
In his rookie season, the Bengals QB suffered a serious ACL injury, missed a lot of games, and football fans forgot about Joe Burrow.
Fast forward a couple of years later, and the Cincinnati Bengals are so impressed with their young QB that they made him the highest-paid player in NFL history.
You don’t get paid because of potential. You get paid because of results.
Burrow was drafted first overall because of his potential. When it comes to games played in the NFL, the 26-year-old has put up some serious results.
The three-year veteran has a Super Bowl appearance, some deep playoff runs, and has thrown for over 9,000 yards the last two seasons combined.
Mid-Range Targets With Upside
Trevor Lawrence +1600 To Lead League
In 2023, the Carolina Panthers selected Bryce Young with the first pick of the NFL draft. The last time a QB was selected first overall was in 2021 when Jacksonville pivot Trevor Lawrence heard his name called.
Much like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence had a year one in the league to forget. Burrow suffered a serious injury that set him back. Lawrence was the result of a seriously bad coaching hire, having to play under Urban Meyer during his disastrous one year in the NFL.
Since Meyer left the league, Lawrence has reminded many that he was the consensus #1 pick for a reason. In 2022, the former Clemson QB eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in a season for the first time in his career.
Most expect him to be even better this year.
Tua Tagovailoa +1800 To Lead League
It’s easy to overlook Tua Tagovailoa for this specific bet because his total passing yards in 2022 were just over 3,500. That was well short of the 5,250 Mahomes totaled.
However, in 2022, Tua battled some injuries, specifically some scary concussion injuries that caused him to miss more than four games.
When the former Alabama QB was in action, he was better than most fans realize. Tua averaged 272 passing yards per game played. Among NFL starting QBs last year, only Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow and Tom Brady averaged more.
With Brady finally retiring (at least for now), Tua’s chances to lead the league in passing yards in 2023 just improved.
Big Value Long Shots
Dak Prescott +2200 To Lead League
- In 2019, Dak Prescott played 16 games and threw for over 4,900 yards.
- In 2021, Dak Prescott played 16 games and threw for over 4,400 yards.
When Dak Prescott is healthy and on the field, he puts up serious statistics and should be regarded as one of the game’s best passers.
Unfortunately for Prescott, in 2022, he missed five games due to injury, and in 2020, he fractured an ankle and played in only five games.
Dallas is getting a lot of attention in a very difficult NFC East division.
The Philadelphia Eagles are obviously the betting favorite to once again repeat as NFC East champs. But Prescott and the Cowboys are getting a lot of action.
The former 2016 fourth-round pick is also getting some action on his MVP odds and is now near the top of the odds board for that award, somewhere close to +2000.
Aaron Rodgers +3000 To Lead League
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for over 4,000 yards an impressive ten times in his career. Only four players in history have more 4,000-yard passing seasons than the new Jets QB.
- Tom Brady x 14
- Peyton Manning x 14
- Philip Rivers x 12
- Drew Brees x 10
Brady, Manning, Rivers, and Brees have all led the league at least once in total passing yards.
Aaron Rodgers has not.
DraftKings has Rodgers’ total passing yards at +3950.5.
In 15 seasons as an NFL starter, Rodgers has gone over that total ten times. Last year, Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards and broke a four-year streak of throwing for at least 4,000 yards.
2022 NFL Passing Yards Leaders
2022 was an incredibly successful year for Patrick Mahomes, and he took home lots of hardware to prove it.
- The Chiefs won their second Super Bowl during the Andy Reid / Patty Mahomes era.
- Mahomes led the NFL in total passing yards, throwing for 5,250 yards. It was the first time Mahomes led the league in that category.
- The two-time Super Bowl champ was also named league MVP, the second time Mahomes has won that award.
2022 Passing Yards Leaders
| Rank | Player | Total Passing Yards | Team |
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 | Chiefs |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | 4,739 | Chargers |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 4,694 | Buccaneers |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | 4,547 | Vikings |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | 4,475 | Bengals |
NFL Passing Yards Leaders – Last 10 Seasons
It was only three seasons ago that Deshaun Watson led the entire NFL in passing yards. The year before him, it was Jameis Winston with the Buccaneers.
If you want to impress your friends with some NFL trivia – the only three active players to lead the NFL in total passing yards for one season are:
Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Patrick Mahomes.
| Year | Player | Total Passing YDS | Team |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 | Chiefs |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | 5,316 | Buccaneers |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson | 4,823 | Texans |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston | 5,109 | Buccaneers |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger | 5,129 | Steelers |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | 4,577 | Patriots |
| 2016 | Drew Brees | 5,208 | Saints |
| 2015 | Drew Brees | 4,870 | Saints |
| 2014 | Ben RoethlisbergerDrew Brees | 4,952 | Steelers & Saints |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 5,477 | Broncos |
NFL Quarterbacks – Most Passing Touchdowns
There is some obvious correlation between those who throw for a lot of passing yards and those who throw a lot of touchdowns.
Mahomes led the league in both passing yards and touchdowns in 2022. Tom Brady did the same thing only one year earlier.
NFL Passing TD Leaders – Last 10 Seasons
| Year | Player | Total Passing TDs | Team |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 41 | Chiefs |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | 43 | Buccaneers |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | 46 | Packers |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 36 | Ravens |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 50 | Chiefs |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson | 34 | Seahawks |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers | 40 | Packers |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | 36 | Patriots |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck | 40 | Colts |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 55 | Broncos |
| 2012 | Drew Brees | 43 | Saints |
NFL QB Totals: Passing Yards Over/Under
For each NFL QB, oddsmakers will set a number for their total passing yards this season.
As a bettor, it is your job to determine whether a quarterback will go Over or Under the total set by the sportsbooks.
One interesting player to consider this year is Russell Wilson. Wilson has a total set at 3750.5 yards.
By now, most of us are very familiar with Wilson’s first season in Denver, one that was labeled disappointing by all parties.
However, Wilson has only gone over that total twice over his last five seasons. (40%)
Sean Payton has arrived to save the day in Denver, and most of us associate Payton with a pretty good QB during his New Orleans days. Will Payton turn Russ into the next Drew Brees?
Or is his total inflated, and Russ bettors should be running for the under making it four times in the last six years Wilson has gone under 4,000 yards passing?
NFL QB Totals: Passing Touchdowns Over/Under
Much like the Over / Under passing yards bet we discussed above, this type of wager requires a bettor to decide whether a QB will go over or under the total amount of touchdown passes set by the oddsmakers this year.
One interesting QB to consider for this bet is Jordan Love, the new starting QB in Green Bay.
This off-season has been dominated by Aaron Rodgers news, and now that the rest of the football world is focused on how Rodgers will perform in New York, Packers fans have turned their attention to their new starting QB, Jordan Love.
Love has fewer than 100 attempts in his career, and we just don’t know what the Packers are sitting on with their 2020 first-round pick. (26th overall)
However, his total for TDs this year has been set at 21.5.
Whether Love is really good or really bad – I believe Green Bay is committed to him this year, assuming he stays healthy.
I like Love to go over this number, and I will also be cheering for a Jets vs. Packers Super Bowl this year.
Always Shop Around For Your Best Odds
When it comes to being profitable against the sportsbooks, the single greatest edge a bettor can have is to shop around for their Best Odds.
Shopping around is even more valuable when discussing long-term futures bets, where the variance in odds can be very significant.
Let’s use Dak Prescot as an example.
Prescott’s MVP odds fluctuated during the off-season between +1600 and +2400, depending on what sportsbook you were looking at.
The difference in profit and ROI when we compare +1600 to +2400 is huge.
Imagine thinking you won big with a Prescott for MVP bet at +1600 and then hearing someone else made 50% more profit with the same bet?
The number one piece of advice sharp bettors provide recreational bettors looking to improve their overall bankroll – shop around for your best price. It could impact your ROI by upwards of 20% over time.
