2022 NFL Passing Yards Betting Odds
The NFL season is upon us!
Those who follow the NFL know that success on the field, especially by a team’s offense, begins and ends with the quarterback position.
Fourteen of the last 15 NFL MVP award winners have been quarterbacks.
Not only is today’s quarterback expected to be able to throw the football where it needs to go, but they are also looked upon as another coach on the field.
QBs give direction to their teammates, audible out of plays at the line of scrimmage, all while controlling the game’s tempo.
It’s no wonder that sports bettors love to place futures bets around the performance of their favorite passers.
Below we walk you through some of the many betting options on NFL QBs and give you some insight into strategies and key players to watch.
NFL QB Passing Yards Odds
Here is the Regular Season Passing Yards for some of the starting QBs for 2022:
Most QB Passing Yards
This is one of the more straightforward bets to make.
Before the season starts, sportsbooks will provide NFL odds on all the different QBs to lead the league in total passing yards.
As a bettor, your job is to identify the QB with the most total passing yards at the end of the regular season.
It’s important to remember that we are looking for the total yards thrown by a QB, not their average passing yards per game.
Sometimes a QB will miss a game or two during the season. When a QB misses a game, it doesn’t impact their average passing yards per game stat.
For example, last season, Joe Burrow finished just ahead of Matthew Stafford with an average of 288 yards passing per game.
However, Stafford had more actual passing yards overall because he played in 17 total games, compared to Burrow’s 16.
2021 NFL Passing Yards Leaders
Tom Brady – For the fourth time in his hall of fame career, Tom Brady led the NFL in total passing yards. The fact that
Brady did it well past his 40th birthday is no longer a surprise. Last year Brady passed Drew Brees, becoming the all-time NFL passing yards leader.
Although 44 years of age, Brady is showing no signs of slowing down. The 22-year veteran averaged well over 300 passing yards per game last season.
It would be foolish to expect anything less than another great year from the NFL G.O.A.T.
Justin Herbert – In just two seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers, Justin Herbert has already thrown for over 9,300 yards, and most believe he has yet to hit his prime.
Last year Herbert threw for over 5,000 yards and finished behind only Brady in that category.
Herbert plays in a division that includes Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson.
The Chargers will need to put up a lot of points to keep pace in the AFC West, and once again, Herbert will be asked to throw the ball a lot.
Matthew Stafford – For 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions, Matthew Stafford put up incredible numbers. Still, he left many wondering just how good he was because the Lions were always such a terrible team.
Well, Stafford answered his critics in one season with the Los Angeles Rams, another great statistical season, and a Super Bowl championship.
Stafford has developed an incredible on-field relationship with receiver Cooper Kupp, who led the NFL in several receiving categories last year.
Expect those two to put up huge numbers again in 2022.
NFL Passing Yards Leaders – Last 10 Seasons
|Year||Player||Total Passing YDS||Team|
|2021||Tom Brady||5,316 YDS||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|2020||Deshaun Watson||4,823 YDS||Houston Texans|
|2019||Jameis Winston||5,109 YDS||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|2018||Ben Roethlisberger||5,129 YDS||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|2017||Tom Brady||4,577 YDS||New England Patriots|
|2016||Drew Brees||5,208 YDS||New Orleans Saints|
|2015||Drew Brees||4,870 YDS||New Orleans Saints|
|4,952 YDS||Pittsburgh Steelers|
New Orleans Saints
|2013||Peyton Manning||5,477 YDS||Denver Broncos|
|2012||Drew Brees||5,177 YDS||New Orleans Saints|
NFL QB – Most Passing Touchdowns
There must be some correlation between those who throw a lot of passing yards and those who throw a lot of touchdown passes because the three league-leaders in total passing yards also were the three league-leaders in total passing touchdowns.
Tom Brady led the NFL with 43 touchdowns last year, Stafford was right behind him with 41, and Herbert third overall with 38 TD passes.
Undoubtedly, all three of those names will be in contention again this year. Nobody has led the league in TD passes in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees in 2011 and 2012.
2022 Potential NFL Passing TD Leaders
We already know that Brady, Stafford, and Herbert are really good, so who else has a chance to lead the league in total TD passes this year?
Aaron Rodgers – Twice in his career Aaron Rodgers has led the NFL in passing touchdowns. In 2020, Rodgers had an impressive 46 TDs through the air.
Rodgers will have to deal with the loss of Davante Adams this off-season, but maybe the market over-corrected what the actual loss of Adams will mean to Rodgers, and his total touchdown passes this year.
Joe Burrow – There was a lot of hype about Joe Burrow coming out of college, and he was managing to live up to expectations in his rookie season until he suffered a devastating injury. Many wondered how Burrow would respond coming off a torn ACL.
Burrow responded with a season even the most optimistic would have had trouble predicting. A 70% completion percentage with 34 touchdowns and a QB Rating over 104 are MVP-like numbers.
Burrow has one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL and will be a significant threat again this year.
Patrick Mahomes – Despite throwing 37 touchdowns last year and having 151 touchdown passes in only 63 career starts, somehow, we aren’t giving Patrick Mahomes enough attention for this award.
Mahomes did lose Tyreek Hill this off-season, but that will not stop the Chiefs from airing the ball out again this year.
The 5-year QB had what was considered a down year for him in 2021 and still finished fourth in overall touchdown passes.
NFL Passing TD Leaders – Last 10 Seasons
|Year||Player||Total Passing TDs||Team|
|2021||Tom Brady||43||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|2020||Aaron Rodgers||46||Green Bay Packers|
|2019||Lamar Jackson||36||Baltimore Ravens|
|2018||Patrick Mahomes||50||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2017||Russell Wilson||34||Seattle Seahawks|
|2016||Aaron Rodgers||40||Green Bay Packers|
|2015||Tom Brady||36||New England Patriots|
|2014||Andrew Luck||40||Indianapolis Colts|
|2013||Peyton Manning||55||Denver Broncos|
|2012||Drew Brees||43||New Orleans Saints|
NFL QB Totals: Passing Yards Over/Under
For each NFL QB, oddsmakers will set a number for their total passing yards this season.
As a bettor, it is your job to determine whether a quarterback will go Over or Under the total set by the sportsbooks.
Quarterbacks To Consider In 2022
Tua Tagovailoa – Amongst Miami Dolphins fans, Tua Tagovailoa can be a hot-button issue.
Some are frustrated by his lack of downfield throwing attempts, and some love his ball-control passing game abilities.
This year Tua has an added weapon in Tyreek Hill, one of the game’s best downfield threats.
As a bettor, you can decide whether Hill is exactly what the Dolphins QB needs to open it up or if the market is over-valuing the presence that HIll will have in Miami.
Trevor Lawrence – In his rookie season, Trevor Lawrence managed to throw for over 3,600 yards. That is despite throwing only 12 touchdowns and giving up 17 INTs.
Lawrence also saw his head coach get fired and played in an environment that appeared to be divided and chaotic.
The 2021 first-overall pick will start his second season with a new head coach and hopefully in an environment much more conducive to winning.
A bettor will have to decide how much Urban Meyer’s tenure in Jacksonville held back the young QB and how much better he will be this year compared to last.
NFL QB Totals: Passing Touchdowns Over/Under
Much like the Over / Under passing yards bet we discussed above, this type of wager requires a bettor to decide whether a QB will go over or under the total amount of touchdown passes set by the oddsmakers this year.
Quarterbacks To Consider In 2022
Trey Lance – Let’s pretend that the San Francisco 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo and make Trey Lance the starting quarterback, as many expect will happen.
In just 71 attempts last year, the rookie QB managed to throw 5 TD passes. That ratio would put him near 40 TD passes over an entire season.
Bettors will have to decide if Lance is a touchdown throwing machine heading into his second full season. With only two career starts to date, many wonder if Lance must still go through an NFL learning curve as defenses begin to prepare for him as a starter.
Justin Fields – Like Trey Lance above, Justin Fields was a first-round pick who played as a rookie last year and only managed a limited number of starts.
Also, like Lance, it is expected the Bears want to give Fields every opportunity to play a lot of football this season.
In 10 starts and 12 appearances last year, Fields had only 10 TD passes against 12 INTs.
Fields can be a polarizing conversation in Chicago, like Tua can be in Miami. Some love his potential and all he accomplished at Ohio State.
Some watched his ten starts last year and wonder how steep his learning curve will be in just his second season.
Always Shop Around For Your Best Odds
When it comes to being profitable against the sportsbooks, the single greatest edge a bettor can have is to shop around for their Best Odds.
Shopping around is even more valuable when talking about long-term futures bets, where the variance in odds can be very significant.
Let’s use Joe Burrow as an example and his odds to lead the league in passing yards this year.
At DraftKings, Burrow is tied for third according to the odds, as most likely to lead the league in passing. You can bet on Burrow at +900 to win this bet.
However, when you compare that to FanDuel, which has him tied for 5th according to their odds, you can wager on Burrow to win the same bet at +1200 odds.
For a $100 bettor, that is an increase of $300 in profit on just one bet. As you get further down the list of QBs, the variance in odds can be even more significant.
The fact is, if you are not shopping around for your Best Odds with multiple sportsbooks, you just aren’t giving yourself the best possible chance to be profitable.