NFL Week 7 Odds

Entering Week 7 of the NFL season and we still have two teams that have yet to cover a spread, the Carolina Panthers (0-5-1 ATS) and the Denver Broncos (0-5-1 ATS).

Carolina will receive a much-needed bye week in Week 7, but Denver will put their ATS goose egg against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon.

The Broncos will have to either thread the needle at +1.5 or win the game outright to finally put a number in the win column on their against the spread record.

Although the New England have covered one spread this season (1-5 ATS), they still hold a -13.3 against the spread margin, which is the worst number in the NFL.

When Bill Belichick has the two worst games of his career in back-to-back weeks, an ugly number like that is to be expected.

Also, after six games, the total has been under in every contest for the New Orleans Saints so far.

The Saints defense has been one of the NFL’s best at keeping players out of the endzone, and their offense, one of the worst at getting in the endzone.

That’s a quality one-two punch on cashing unders.

Let’s delve into this week’s slate and identify some profitable plays, and as always, with the best odds!

Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, +143 ML) vs. New Orleans Saints (-3, -150 ML)

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury in last week’s win over the Colts, and if he doesn’t suit up, Jacksonville’s offense will be a huge question mark.

This being a short Sunday to Thursday turnaround for the Jags, makes Lawrence’s status even more ambiguous.

On the other side, Derek Carr is still questionable with a shoulder injury as well.

If Jameis Winston gets the start under center, or there is a litany of play calls with Taysom Hill as the “quarterback”, I don’t like the Saints chances of scoring a bunch of points.

The total on this game is currently set at 39 on DraftKings, and with two beat up starting QBs, this game could be one of those low-scoring primetime games.

For the Saints, a questionable offense and a solid defense makes for a great recipe for unders.

Give me the under here.

Pick: Under 39 Points | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Sunday – October 22nd – 1:00 p.m. EST

Detroit Lions (+3, +140 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3, -154 ML)

This will be the Detroit Lions first game as underdogs since Week 1, when they were +4 on the spread against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Well, the Lions won that game, 21-20, and I think they’ll win this one too.

Detroit quarterback Jared Goff continues to impress, throwing for 353 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Goff now has 11 touchdown passes to just three interceptions and a QB rating of 105.1.

Since Sunday, Jared Goff is the most-bet player by bets AND handle to win NFL MVP 👀

Goff is currently +2000 to win the award 🦁#OnePride pic.twitter.com/f6Ekz1wmbD

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) October 17, 2023

Baltimore’s passing defense has allowed just 163.2 passing yards per game, but that number could be much higher if not for their soft schedule against opposing quarterbacks.

In the last three games, the Ravens’ defense has faced Dorian Thompson-Robinson of the Browns, Kenny Pickett of the Steelers, and the combo of Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis of the Titans.

Goff will push this Baltimore passing defense closer to the middle in Week 7.

Pick: Lions Moneyline | Best Odds: (+140) Caesars

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, -155 ML) vs. Chicago Bears (+3, -105 ML)

Last week, Las Vegas’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was taken from the stadium by ambulance after a back injury, and Chicago’s Justin Fields is already labeled as “doubtful” after a dislocated thumb.

It could be Aidan O’Connell vs. Tyson Bagent!

I’m intrigued by this matchup of lesser-known QBs.

O’Connell made one start earlier this season, and the Purdue Boilermaker product went 24 of 39 passing for 238 yards and an interception against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Although he failed to throw a touchdown pass, O’Connell did pick up a one-yard TD run.

Bagent, coming to the Bears as an undrafted rookie from Shepherd, a D-II program, got his first taste of the NFL last week, completing 10 of 14 passes for 83 yards and an interception while filling in for the injured Fields.

Every Tyson Bagent drop back in his regular season debut for the #Bears pic.twitter.com/PNS1LLGuZ0

— ImBearingDown (@ImBearingDown) October 16, 2023

Bagent also failed to throw a touchdown pass, but did pick a one-yard TD run, too!

One of these quarterbacks is likely to throw their first touchdown pass in this one, and I believe it’ll be O’Connell first. Chicago’s passing defense is ranked 30th in the NFL and O’Connell will strike first.

With Maxx Crosby chasing Bagent around the pocket in his first NFL start, I like O’Connell and the Raiders to pick up the win.

Pick: Raiders Moneyline | Best Odds: (-155) DraftKings

Cleveland Browns (-1.5, -124 ML) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+2, +110 ML)

The Cleveland Browns’ defense is elite, and they proved it last week, defeating the San Francisco 49ers, 19-17.

The Browns sacked Brock Purdy three times, intercepted him once, and allowed him to complete just 44 percent of his passes for 125 yards.

Myles Garrett won 31% of his pass rushing snaps vs Trent Williams in Week 6

That is the highest percentage given up by Williams in his entire career 🤯 pic.twitter.com/IAyeRnDecO

— PFF (@PFF) October 16, 2023

Cleveland also held Christian McCaffrey to only 3.9 yards per carry, prior to McCaffrey leaving the game with an injury.

The Browns’ defense can certainly take care of business against the Colts in Week 7.

Indianapolis’ new starting quarterback is Gardner Minshew, and after filling in admirably for the injured Anthony Richardson, Minshew had a letdown against the Jaguars last week.

If Minshew is being sacked three times and intercepted three times by Jacksonville, what is Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s defense going to do to him this week?

Pick: Browns Moneyline | Best Odds: (-124) FanDuel

Buffalo Bills (-8, -385 ML) vs. New England Patriots (+9, +330 ML)

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen is questionable with a shoulder injury, and if he doesn’t suit up, this could potentially be the most boring game of the NFL season.

In their last three games the Patriots have been outscored, 93-20, and are now just 1-5 on the season.

Somehow, New England looks worse every week, in one way or another.

Even in a matchup against a potentially Josh Allen-less Bills’ team, the Patriots could find a way to sink to a new low.

Although weather forecasts change quickly, there is expected rain this weekend in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

I’m going to take the under here now before the total dips below 40 points.

Pick: Under 41.5 | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Washington Commanders (-2, -125 ML) vs. New York Giants (+2, +115 ML)

The New York Giants kept it close against the Bills on Sunday Night Football last week, losing 14-9, but couldn’t quite get the ball in the endzone.

Just another game without an offensive touchdown for the G-Men, which now gives them just one offensive touchdown combined across all five of their losses.

The Commanders picked up a victory as underdogs on the road in Atlanta last week, and despite the low passing yards total for quarterback Sam Howell (151 yards), he still found the endzone three times.

Washington lost an overtime contest with the Eagles in Week 4, and if not for a 54-yard field goal from Philadelphia’s kicker Jake Elliott, the Commanders could be 4-2 right now.

Howell will get his team back over .500 in Week 7.

Pick: Commanders Moneyline | Best Odds: (-125) DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, +125 ML) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, -135 ML)

The Buccaneers got picked apart by Jared Goff of the Lions last week, but their passing defense should find more success this week in containing Desmond Ridder of the Falcons.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been hurt a few times by quarterbacks that have thrown for a large volume of pass attempts, but I believe we’ll see a more ground attack approach from Atlanta this week after Ridders’ three-pick outing against Washington.

DESMOND RIDDER THROWS HIS THIRD INTERCEPTION pic.twitter.com/VLVEcDdNIj

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 15, 2023

That’s five interceptions in the last three games for Ridder. The Falcons need to get back to their ground game roots.

In the last three games, Atlanta has allowed a collective QB rating of 103.7, and I believe the Falcons passing defense will allow Baker Mayfield to manage a win for the Bucs down in Tampa.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline | Best Odds: (-135) DraftKings

Sunday, October 22nd – 4:05 p.m. EST

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, +145 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3, -160 ML)

The Pittsburgh Steelers picked up a clutch win over the Baltimore Ravens prior to their Week 6 bye, and now, a well rested Pittsburgh squad travels to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in Week 7.

The Steelers are 3-2 on the season, and have a few respectable wins, like Week 2’s win over the Browns and last week’s win over Baltimore.

It’s just that when they lose, they lose big. Pittsburgh lost to the 49ers, 30-7, in Week 1, and lost to the Houston Texans in Week 4, 30-6.

At times, it appears that the Steelers don’t come to play; at least on the offensive side of the ball.

After the Rams’ soft matchup with the Arizona Cardinals last week, things won’t be easier against T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Steelers’ defense this week.

In six games this season, Matt Stafford has just six touchdowns and five interceptions.

Kenny Pickett on the other hand, has just five touchdown passes and four interceptions in five games.

The results for these two quarterbacks are closer than they should be.

Stafford has not been getting it done for the Rams, and I can see Pittsburgh stealing this game in LA.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+145) BetMGM

Arizona Cardinals (+8, +315 ML) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, -375 ML)

After the hot start for Josh Dobbs, with the backup QB keeping the Cardinals close in ball games, and even picking up a win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, things are beginning to make sense.

CHRISTIAN ROZEBOOM PICKS OFF JOSH DOBBS #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/MYTixqQPrn

— Jack (@MidWestLAFan) October 15, 2023

Arizona has now lost three in a row, losing by an average of 16.7 points in those contests.

The Seahawks experienced a close loss to the Bengals in Week 6, and will now look to take out their frustrations on their NFC West division rival at home.

Although Geno Smith collected 323 yards against Cincinnati’s defense last week, he also threw two interceptions in the second half, helping seal Seattle’s fate.

In the four point loss, this is how all four fourth-quarter drives ended for the Seahawks: interception, punt, turnover on downs, turnover on downs.

Against a Cardinals team allowing 31.7 points per game in their last three contests, Seattle will not suffer the same fate.

Pick: Seahawks (-7.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Sunday, October 22nd – 4:25 p.m. EST

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, -115 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (+1.5, +106 ML)

The Broncos are dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game (33.3), 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (268), and dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (172.3).

Denver is awful.

Now is a good time for the Green Bay Packers to trot their offense out there and see what they got.

The Packers lost a close one in their last game prior to their bye week, a 17-13 loss to the Raiders.

If not for the three interceptions from Jordan Love, including one on Green Bay’s final drive, the Pack could be above .500 right now.

Wide receiver Christian Watson did return for Green Bay in the last game, and did make a presence, catching three balls for 91 yards.

CHRISTIAN WATSON 🔙
pic.twitter.com/RUjPDljYWB

— PFF (@PFF) October 10, 2023

I’ll take the Packers to win here, mainly because the Broncos aren’t trying to win.

Pick: Packers Moneyline | Best Odds: (-115) PointsBet

Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5, +200 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, -230 ML)

The Chargers continue to get in their own way.

Los Angeles lost to the Dallas Cowboys last Monday Night by three points.

On their first drive of the third quarter, the Chargers are down 10-7 and head coach Brandon Staley decides to go for it on 4th and Goal at the Dallas 7-yard line.

Chargers get stopped on 4th down pic.twitter.com/nMH52Sx3X0

— JM Football (@JomboyMediaFB) October 17, 2023

The easy three points would have tied the game.

Take the points, Brandon.

Every game for LA has now finished as a one-possession game, and unfortunately for the Chargers, they have been on the wrong side more often.

Andy Reid rarely makes the wrong decision as head coach of the Chiefs, and he’ll probably make the right calls once again in Week 7.

The Chiefs offense is still a work in progress, as Patrick Mahomes continues to look for other options than Travis Kelce in this odd receiver corps.

The Chiefs will probably win this one, but I believe Los Angeles will make it competitive enough on the scoreboard, only to lose by three points.

Pick: Chargers (+5.5) | Best Odds: (-105) BetMGM

Sunday Night Football

Miami Dolphins (+2.5, +115 ML) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5 , -125 ML)

The Philadelphia Eagles have the NFL’s 20th-ranked passing defense, allowing 232.2 passing yards per game.

That was before they faced Zach Wilson of the Jets in Week 6.

Wilson defeated the Eagles and he only needed 186 passing yards to do it.

To be fair, it was the Jets’ defense that won that game, but good for Zach Wilson.

The Eagles have been crushed at times by opposing quarterbacks, allowing 316 yards and three touchdowns to Mac Jones in Week 1, 364 yards and four touchdowns to Kirk Cousins in Week 2, and even 290 yards and a touchdown to Sam Howell in Week 4.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill could destroy this Philadelphia defense on Sunday Night Football.

Tua Tagovailoa ranks first among QBs in:

– Passing yards (1,876)
– Passing yards per attempt (9.5)
– Passing TDs (14)
– Passer rating (114.1)
– 20+ yard completions (13)
– % of passes past first down marker (48.7%) pic.twitter.com/mAOqfbtIlE

— PFF (@PFF) October 16, 2023

After the Eagles undefeated start, I see them losing two games in a row.

Pick: Dolphins Moneyline | Best Odds: (+115) Caesars

Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, -290 ML) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+6.5, +245 ML)

The 5-1 49ers take on the 2-4 Vikings on Monday Night Football!

San Francisco finally looks mortal after their loss to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday.

This primetime matchup with Minnesota looks like a good bounce back opportunity for the oddsmakers’ Super Bowl favorite 49ers, but don’t sleep on the Vikes.

The Vikings’ two victories this season have come against the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, which is nothing to write home about, but when looking at their four losses, they’ve still put up a fight.

In the four losses, the Vikings have lost by an average score of 5.25 points.

Minnesota gets a 49ers squad that could be playing without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.

I like the Vikings’ chances to cover the spread as home underdogs.
Pick: Vikings (+6.5) | Best Odds: (-102) DraftKings