bestodds logo

2024 MLB Season Win Totals Betting Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Mar 26, 2024

Loading...

In 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ season win total has been set as high as 104.5.

On the other end, the Oakland Athletics have their season win total set as low as 56.5.

With expectations set wildly high and wildly low, it should be interesting to see how the season shakes out for these two clubs.

The Dodgers’ $287 million payroll and the Athletics’ $46 million payroll is just one indicator of the disparity between the clubs that are projected to be the MLB’s best and worst.

A high payroll doesn’t necessarily guarantee success though, just as a low payroll doesn’t guarantee failure.

The analytically savvy Tampa Bay Rays entered the 2023 season with a payroll of $73.18 million (28th in MLB) and managed to collect 99 wins.

The New York Mets had the highest payroll in baseball in 2023, a staggering $353.55 million!

The Mets finished with only 75 wins, which was one less win than the notoriously frugal Pittsburgh Pirates ($73.27 million, 27th in MLB).

Bettors backing the big spenders, like the Yankees, Mets, or Dodgers, certainly are backing the talent that that money buys.

Bettors just need to avoid the disasters like the implosion the Mets suffered in 2023.

Last year, $86.66 million of New York’s payroll was just Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

When a large portion of a team’s payroll is allocated to two different pitchers that are close to or over the age of 40, that should raise some concern.

Let’s take a look at MLB season win totals for 2024.

National League

Here are the projected win totals for each NL team in 2024 as of February 2nd, win totals courtesy of BetMGM:

NL Team2024 Season Win Totals – BetMGM2023 Win TotalProjected Win Differential from 2023
Arizona Diamondbacks84.584+0.5
Atlanta Braves101.5104-2.5
Chicago Cubs84.583+1.5
Cincinnati Reds82.582+0.5
Colorado Rockies60.559+1.5
Los Angeles Dodgers103.5100+3.5
Miami Marlins77.584-6.5
Milwaukee Brewers76.592-15.5
New York Mets81.575+6.5
Philadelphia Phillies89.590-0.5
Pittsburgh Pirates75.576-0.5
San Diego Padres83.582+1.5
San Francisco Giants83.579+4.5
St. Louis Cardinals84.571+13.5
Washington Nationals66.571-4.5

When deciding whether a team will go over or under their win total, bettors must ask themselves a simple question: how much did the team in question progress or regress from the season prior?

Let’s use the St. Louis Cardinals as an example.

The Cardinals won just 71 games last season, and that low win total caused them to fall all the way down into the NL Central basement.

The win total at BetMGM has St. Louis at roughly 85 wins, which is about a 14-win improvement and projected to have the most wins in the NL Central.

This line is saying that the Cardinals will go from worst to first in their division in 2024.

So, to the question. Did the Cardinals do enough to improve fifteen wins from last season to this season?

St. Louis suffered from regression more than anything else last season, so they may see a slight bounce back from some individuals.

But, with one of the oldest rosters in baseball, with an average age of 29.5, a bounce back may not be in the Cards (pun intended).

St. Louis’ offense is still heavily-focused on 36-year old first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and 32-year old third baseman Nolan Arenado.

Outside of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Arenado’s .774 OPS in 2023 was the lowest mark since his rookie season, and Goldschmidt’s OPS of .810 was the lowest since his rookie season, too.

I’m not saying these sluggers are done just yet, but they may be on the back nine of their careers.

Also, the Cardinals’ pitching staff posted a forgettable 4.83 team ERA (24th in MLB), and in an attempt to clean up the mess on the mound, St. Louis brought in 34-year old pitcher Sonny Gray and 36-year old pitcher Lance Lynn.

In 2023, Gray posted a 2.79 ERA as a member of the Minnesota Twins, but his xERA of 3.66 suggests that Gray may have gotten lucky last year.

Lynn recorded an ugly 5.73 ERA last season and his four-seam fastball velocity was at a career-low 92.4 miles per hour.

According to Baseball Savant, Lynn also allowed the highest opposing Barrel% (10.6%) in the league.

A barrel is when a batted ball is produced with a high exit velocity (at least 98 mph) and a launch angle of 26-30 degrees. Barrel% is a calculation of barrel-per-batted-ball events.

Basically, Lynn got clubbed in 2023.

Although the NL Central appears to be one of the weaker divisions in baseball, as is often the case, I still believe that St. Louis should finish near the bottom of this division.

And I certainly don’t see them winning 15 more games than last year.

I’d take the under on the Cardinals season win total in 2024.

Here’s a couple of other NL teams I’ve got my eye on.

Overs

Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s about to get rowdy in Chavez Ravine in 2024.

After winning 100 games in 2023, the Dodgers fell short of their World Series aspirations.

Since then, they’ve added two-way star Shohei Ohtani, Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, All-Star pitcher Tyler Glasnow, defensive outfield stud Manuel Margot and slugger Teoscar Hernandez.

Once Los Angeles sees the return of Walker Beuhler, they’ll have a glut of starting pitchers, including Yamamoto, Glasnow, Dustin May, Bobby Miller, Tony Gonsolin, and James Paxton, too.

Ohtani won’t pitch this season, but his bat will still make enough noise for the Dodger Stadium crowd.

In only 135 games last season, Ohtani still launched 44 home runs and collected 95 RBI.

With first baseman Freddie Freeman, second baseman Mookie Betts, third baseman Max Muncy, Ohtani, and Hernandez, the Dodgers have five bats that could hit 30 dingers and drive in 100 runs this season.

Los Angeles is a juggernaut.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers won 110 games.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates won 76 games in 2023, which was 14 more wins than they had in 2022.

I’m expecting even more progress in Pittsburgh this year.

The Pirates have a collection of young talent that’s beginning to take shape on the big league club.

A large X-factor for Pittsburgh this season will be their 6-foot-7 shortstop Oneil Cruz.

Cruz only appeared in nine games in 2023, and in his 98-game career thus far, he has already shown a ridiculous amount of potential.

Pirates’ third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes was a Gold Glove winner at third base, dethroning Arenado after a ten-year run.

Hayes’ bat seemed to turn a corner as well, hitting .307 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI in 71 games played after June 1st.

Pittsburgh also has an All-Star outfielder in Bryan Reynolds, and two solid relievers in the back end of the bullpen with Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar.

The Pirates started the season 20-9 last season, then the wheels came off the tracks. That’s not happening again in 2024.

Pittsburgh will be an above .500 ballclub this year.

With a topsy-turvy NL Central division and some growth from younger talent, the Pirates are trending up, not down.

Unders

St. Louis Cardinals

As I mentioned above, I’m taking the under on St. Louis’ win total.

The Cardinals just haven’t done enough to move the needle in 2024.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have lost way too much talent from their roster.

The Padres have waved goodbye to outfielder Juan Soto, lefty starter Blake Snell, and relief ace Josh Hader.

How does San Diego replace all of that production?

The Padres still have some talented players, like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish.

Ultimately, San Diego failed to win more than 82 games last season with more talent, and I don’t expect them to win more games with less talent in 2024.

American League

Here are the projected win totals for each AL team in 2024 as of February 2nd, win totals courtesy of FanDuel:

AL Team2024 Season Win Totals – FanDuel2023 Win TotalProjected Win Differential from 2023
Baltimore Orioles89.5101-11.5
Boston Red Sox77.578-0.5
Chicago White Sox61.561+0.5
Cleveland Guardians79.576+3.5
Detroit Tigers80.578+2.5
Houston Astros93.590+3.5
Kansas City Royals73.556+17.5
Los Angeles Angels72.573-0.5
Minnesota Twins86.587-0.5
New York Yankees90.582+8.5
Oakland Athletics58.550+8.5
Seattle Mariners87.588-0.5
Tampa Bay Rays85.599-13.5
Texas Rangers88.590-1.5
Toronto Blue Jays86.589-2.5

Overs

Cleveland Guardians

FanDuel projects the Guardians to finish slightly above last season’s win total, at over/under 79.5 wins.

Although longtime manager Terry Francona won’t be in the dugout, with new manager Stephen Vogt taking the reins in Cleveland, it just seems like the Guardians couldn’t put it all together last season.

Injuries to pitchers Shane Beiber and Triston McKenzie crushed the rotation’s potential, but there was a silver lining to their absences.

Rookie starting pitchers Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams produced strong freshman campaigns, with Bibee going 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out 141 batters in 142 innings and Williams recorded a 3.29 ERA with 81 Ks in 82 innings.

A potential 1-2-3-4 of Bieber, Bibee, McKenzie, and Williams could be one of the best rotations in the AL, if healthy.

Also, the Guards have one of the best relievers in baseball in closer Emmanuel Clase.

Clase has a career ERA of 2.00 and has led the Major Leagues in saves in each of the last two seasons (42 saves in 2022, 44 saves in 2023).

Cleveland’s contact-first offense may lack some punch, but they have the potential to paper cut their opponents and scoot around the basepaths for runs.

Contact and run prevention is a solid foundation for any winning ballclub.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are projected to win about 14 games less than they did in 2023, and that just seems egregious to me.

Yes, the Tampa Bay traded away Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot, and there is awful off-field situation with Wander Franco, but outside of these players, the Rays still have a very competitive team.

Veteran righty Zach Eflin posted a 3.50 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 177.2 innings and ground-ball specialist Aaron Civale posted a 3.46 ERA in 122.1 innings, and they will continue to anchor the rotation.

Plus, the Rays have a trio of young arms in Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, and Ryan Pepiot that can all spin it, and manager Kevin Cash always seems to call in a valuable arm at the right time.

Most importantly, you can never count out Tampa Bays’ offense.

Whether it’s the consistency atop the lineup from Yandy Diaz or the thunder from Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena, there always seems to be another player making noise.

Sometimes it’s Josh Lowe, sometimes it’s Brandon Lowe.

Other times, it’s Jose Siri or Harold Ramirez.

The Rays don’t need money to win, they’ll use creativity that other teams lack.

Unders

Kansas City Royals

Before I mention how I don’t like the Kansas City Royals to go over their win total in 2024, I’ll give a tip of the cap to Bobby Witt Jr.’s very entertaining 2023 season.

The 23-year old shortstop hit .276 with 30 home runs, 96 RBI, and stole 49 bases.

Well done, Bobby.

Witt will have to do much better than that if the Royals intend to win 17 more games this season, as FanDuel has projected.

Kansas City has a few solid young players that could push the Royals up the standings, but maybe not 17 games.

Lefthander Cole Ragans looks like he could be the staff ace as early as this season after being traded over from the Texas Rangers last July.

Ragans produced six starts of five or more innings and allowed one or less run in his final 12 appearances.

Decent complimentary hitters around Witt, such as first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and outfielders MJ Melendez and Nelson Velazquez and potential future Hall of Fame catcher Salvador Perez.

The Royals are not a terrible team, but they may have a better outlook in 2025, not 2024.

Oakland Athletics

Even though the Athletics have the lowest projected win total of any Major League team, I’m still taking the under on their 2024 win total.

Last season, the A’s won a measly 50 games and nothing much has changed for the better, probably not even seven wins better.

Other than Oakland’s young catching tandem of Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom or second baseman Zack Gelof, this looks like a Triple-A team.

If you collected baseball cards for the 2024 Athletics, chances are that they would be the cards you put in between spokes of the wheel on your bicycle.

Outfielder Brent Rooker led the team in average, home runs, and RBI in 2023 (.246, 30 HR, 69 RBI), but those numbers may not even be sustainable.

Fellow outfielder Esteury Ruiz is an absolute speed demon on the basepaths, stealing 67 bags last season.

While Ruiz produced some excitement with his legs, his .654 OPS produced more yawns.

There’s no guarantee that this Oakland club improves upon last year’s 50-112 finish.

The 2023 A’s tied for the tenth-most losses in MLB history, so I’m not loving the 2024 A’s.

It ain’t looking great for this season in Oakland.

MLB Team Totals Betting

MLB Team Totals betting is all about trying to find value in teams before the rest of the market can catch up.

Bettors will obviously want to focus on how teams performed in the previous season and the big moves teams made to improve over the offseason.

There are also several great sites available for bettors who provide projected win totals for each team. Obviously, these projected totals are far from perfect with their accuracy, but they are a great starting tool for bettors to use at their disposal.

Now is the time to dig in on the offseason homework for all 30 teams and then search the Team Total odds for a great value.

Where Can You Bet MLB Team Totals

Betting MLB Team Totals is very easy to do online. The first step a bettor will want to do is compare their own projections with the odds and totals provided by multiple sportsbooks. Not every team will have the same win totals at every sportsbook.

Making sure you find the best MLB odds available for the teams you want to bet on is a great strategy play.

There is also so much competition between the sportsbooks currently, bettors should be looking at welcome bonuses and promotions being offered before setting up their accounts.

Once a bettor has an understanding of the sportsbooks they want to use to place their Team Total bets, you can find the odds for all teams within the MLB betting section.

Under the futures tab, click Team Totals or Win Totals and you will see all the latest odds for each of the 30 MLB teams.

Betting on MLB Team Totals is a very popular type of futures bet and all legal, reputable sportsbooks will have those odds available to interested bettors.

We always recommend you track all your bets either with a spreadsheet or software designed to help you keep a record of your wagers.

This is the best way to stay within your money management plan and to learn from your past history and results.

Most MLB Regular Season Wins Since 2000

YearTeamTotal Wins
2001Seattle Mariners116
2022Los Angeles Dodgers111
2018Boston Red Sox108
2019Houston Astros107
2021San Francisco Giants107
2019Los Angeles Dodgers106
2021Los Angeles Dodgers106
2022Houston Astros106
2004St. Louis Cardinals105

Win Totals For Last 10 World Series Champions

YearWorld Series ChampionRegular Season Record
2023Texas Rangers90-72
2022Houston Astros106-56
2021Atlanta Braves88-73
2020Los Angeles Dodgers43-17 *shortened season
2019Washington Nationals93-69
2018Boston Red Sox108-54
2017Houston Astros101-61
2016Chicago Cubs103-58
2015Kansas City Royals101-61
2014San Francisco Giants103-58
Loading...

About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and enter...

[Read full bio]
chevron up