MLB Betting Odds
There are a couple of reasons why baseball betting is so popular.
First, it is one of the few sports played during the summer, which allows you to bet on MLB while other sports aren’t available.
Second, no sport collects more data than baseball. Everything in the sport is based on analytics. This is a massive help for bettors as they have key information to work their way through winning bets.
The betting options are wide, and you can place an unlimited number of different bets, unlike any other sport.
There are a lot of markets to choose from and it’s a long season where you can handicap your bets. If you’re into advanced research, baseball betting is a must.
By betting online, you open yourself to so many markets and different bets. Online baseball betting is a world of its own, which is a big advantage over physical sportsbooks.
For odds for other professional sports visit our sports betting odds hub.
Let’s take a deep look into the wide world of MLB betting.
MLB Betting Odds Explained
Baseball odds come in many shapes and sizes.
You can find the usual moneylines, run lines, spread lines, prop bets, totals, and futures. Also, you can bet on MLB parlays or even only on the first five innings of the game.
The options are so vast, that you can easily find a bet type that fits you best.
Handicapping, or spread lines, are a way for oddsmakers to even out the odds.
In MLB betting a popular type of wager is with the run line. The run line in baseball is traditionally 1.5 runs. Either the favorite must win by more than 1.5 runs (2 or more) or the Underdog cannot lose by more than 1.5 runs.(Underdogs must either lose by only 1 run or win the game)
New odds for each team are provided with the run line.
An example is that a favorite like the New York Yankees might be -180 on the moneyline. But once we apply the -1.5 run line to them, their odds become much more attractive at -115.
In order to payout on the -115 run line, the Yankees would have to win the game by 2 or more runs.
When betting on baseball, there are many ways you can help yourself bet effectively. Here are some tips to consider when handicapping MLB:
Don’t Bet The Teams, Bet The Numbers
Baseball is the sport most famous for its use of analytics; so be sure to take advantage of all the interesting stats available to help with your research.
Don’t pick your bets only based on the team that has the better record. Instead, make your bet based on the surrounding data.
The fact that one team has a better record than the other doesn’t mean you should ignore the pitching matchup.
Oddsmakers consider everything, from their recent form as well as their results and how pitchers match up against the batting lineup.
Sometimes a certain pitcher struggles against left-handed batters, for example. Knowing this information helps you put yourself in a better situation when wagering.
Know The Umpires
Umpires don’t play the game, but they sure do influence it. There are more strict or lenient umpires behind home plate when calling balls or strikes.
Umpires who have a strict strike zone call more balls, which means more movement to the offense. Also, less margin for the pitchers’ throwing.
This means batters also have a better chance to knock it out of the park. So the over is a nice bet.
If the umpire is lenient, pitchers have a wider window of throwing. This complicates things for the batters.
It makes them have to reach with swings they otherwise wouldn’t. As a result, the under comes in very handy.
Popular MLB Online Bets
The MLB has gathered a popular market for the bettors. It’s a 162-game regular season, during the summer, and with lots of data available.
As an MLB bettor, you will need to pick which types of bets work best for your system, and what teams and games you will be betting on.
It is extremely time-consuming to be an expert on everything and everyone. Often times successful bettors will pick a specific division and set of teams they want to bet on.
This means that instead of trying to handicap all 32 MLB teams, they can focus on five or six.
Baseball is a low-scoring game, so moneylines are useful. It works the same as moneylines in all the other major sports. The oddsmakers assign negative odds to the favorite and positive to the underdog.
Here’s an example:
– New York Yankees -180
– Boston Red Sox +140
Pick the outright winner and cash out. Lay $180 to win $100 if you’re picking the Yankees.
If you like the Underdog Red Sox, a $100 bet pays out at $140 profit.
Even though moneylines are the most popular bet, run lines are a great alternative. It’s a point spread of 1.5 runs attached to a moneyline.
Following our example before, this is how a run line bet looks:
– New York Yankees -1.5 (+145)
– Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
In the moneyline example, the Yankees are the favorites. However, adding the factor that they need to win by two runs to cash makes them the underdogs.
The Red Sox went from underdogs to favorites when given a 1.5 run advantage.
Run lines standard is 1.5. Depending on the book though, you can find up to 2.5 or even 3.5 runs.
MLB totals (commonly called Over / Unders) are the same in baseball as all other sports.
The oddsmakers set a total number of runs that will be scored by both teams, and you choose to go over or under that mark. Keeping up with our example:
– New York Yankees -180
– Boston Red Sox +140
– Over (-110) 9.0, Under (-110) 9.0
The moneyline assigned to an Over/Under bet is normally very close to -110 for both sides.
Remember, this is a combined effort; the over cashes as long as both teams combine to score more than the set number. If they fall short, the under pays out.
In this example, you can also get a PUSH if the total runs scored are Nine.
The Total for a game will vary depending on many different factors. The pitching matchup, the weather, injuries, and of course the teams involved will all heavily influence the Over/Under total set for each game.
MLB parlays are two or more baseball games bet together on one ticket.
The more games you bet on, the more the payout. But the risk of striking out—no pun intended—and leaving empty-handed is bigger.
Remember, in a parlay, you must win all the bets involved. One loss buries the rest of the results.
There are also the same game parlays that are definitely worth trying. The same game parlay allows you to bet on multiple events in the same game.
An example could be: Betting the Toronto Blue Jays to go OVER their team total and betting on the Blue Jays to win.
Previously same game parlays were not permitted because of something called correlated odds.
This means that when one event occurs (Blue Jays going OVER their team total) then another event is likely to occur as well. (Blue Jays to win)
Sportsbooks continue to work on their same game parlay odds trying to find a way to price them in a fair way for the marketplace.
Some sportsbooks (Fanduel being the industry leader) are great at same game parlays, some don’t offer them at all.
These are long-term wagers placed for an event to happen at a later date.
For example, you can bet on who will win the World Series even if the season hasn’t started. You can also bet on American League or National League winners or division winners.
Since there are a lot of teams, and a lot of games, baseball futures offer high payouts.
Savvy players can find intriguing prop bets in baseball.
You can find basic player propositions, like the number of runs, hits, or strikeouts a player will achieve during a game.
As data collection continues to increase in the world of sports, so do the number of player prop bets available.
There are also numerous game-related prop bets, such as which team will score first, which team will be winning after 5 innings, and the Over/Under of the first inning alone or one of the most popular bets NRFI prop.
MLB Betting Strategy
We’ve covered how logical you have to be when betting on baseball. You need to choose the right bet and play with your mind, not your heart.
Therefore, you need to come up with a proper betting strategy. As mentioned before, baseball has its own betting world.
These are some strategies you can use when wagering on ball games:
Break Down Sleeper Games
In a 162-game schedule, the number of games per day is too big for sportsbooks to be super sharp in every market.
Instead, be a bettor who looks at the opening odds and doesn’t wait until closing lines to place your bet.
Take advantage of the initial odds before the market reacts and sportsbooks adjust them.
Throw 52.4% Out Of The Window
52.4% is the magic number to break even on -110 bets.
Baseball doesn’t work like that; it doesn’t use traditional point spreads. Their standard is moneyline odds, so forget about 52.4%; it’s irrelevant.
If you bet correctly, you can see big winnings and not even reach 50%. Underdogs can provide great value in baseball and you don’t always have to win at a high percentage in order to cash in.
Avoid Heavy Favorites
It’s not worth it. Casual bettors aren’t savvy or careful, and they don’t care about the value or getting a good price.
They tilt the betting traffic, which means they like to jump on favorites.
The price we pay for betting on heavy favorites often far outweighs the potential gain.
Betting On MLB Playoffs Online
After a long regular season, the MLB Playoffs are where baseball levels up.
Come playoff time, all teams are in a do-or-die mode, and games become much tighter.
In the postseason, teams usually implement a three or four-man rotation. This changes the whole bullpen dynamic. Thus, the trends you took advantage of in the regular season may not translate to the playoffs.
Watch out for those line movements. The playoffs mean more public bettors will get into it. This leads to drastic swings in the lines, so betting early means you can get the best odds available.
Betting On The World Series
The MLB World Series is one of the biggest events of the year.
After a long season, baseball’s best battle in a best-of-seven to crown a champion.
One way to bet on the World Series is by placing a future bet. But, if you are into the final matchup -as you should be, then take advantage of the opportunities presented to us as bettors.
Compare betting odds from different sportsbooks and make sure you are getting the Best Odds for the bets that interest you the most. Since the World Series is a big event, many betting houses bring out bonuses to win our business.
Don’t pass up these bonus opportunities. As we all look for an edge against the sportsbooks, there is no bigger edge than getting to bet with free money.
Advanced MLB Betting Systems
Baseball betting systems can be very popular. If used correctly, they can provide a bettor with a solid return.
However, if we don’t understand our systems fully and don’t have the discipline to stay within our own rules, then they can also work against us.
The following betting systems have their pros and cons. Let’s take a look at the best MLB betting systems below and how they work.
Betting Against The Public
History has taught us many things, including that over time the betting house always beats the public.
There is a lot of technology available today to help us track sharp money bets and public bets. One system that is quite popular is just tracking the public money and betting against them.
Obviously, the public isn’t wrong every time. But over time, they rarely beat the house.
Underdogs Betting System
The top baseball handicappers will wager on underdogs more than on favorites. It’s not about betting against another team’s best pitcher, but it is about picking your spots.
The best handicappers will know when a game is more likely to be a coin-flip type game, one that is very close until the end.
In this case, they will bet on the underdog who is receiving plus odds (+). If a game is going to be close and a coin-flip outcome, then why not have the better odds to cheer for?
When the wind is blowing in from centerfield at a speed of 5mph or greater, historically games will finish Under their total at close to 55%.
Of course, when the wind is blowing out to left-field and a team is starting a lefty pitcher who will face a predominantly right-handed hitting lineup, the Over is more likely to cash.
You don’t have to be an expert in weather to follow the forecast and bet accordingly.
Avoid The Series Sweep
The series sweep is a combination of reverting back to the mean, pride, and home-field advantage.
The belief is that home teams who have lost the first two or three games of a series will dig in to win the last game.
Whether the home team is expected to try even harder because they have lost the first couple of games or the visiting team is more likely to not be as prepared because they have already won the series, the theory suggests to bet the home team in the final game.
Of course, you can’t just blindly bet on home teams to win the last game without checking the moneyline odds, but there are a lot of MLB bettors who believe that home teams outperform the odds in this situation.
Welcome Betting Bonus Advantage
This is the biggest opportunity for bettors by far.
If we are starting with a bankroll of $500 or use BetMGM bet $10, win $200 promo an operator is going to offer us, we are crazy not to take it.
This isn’t free money we can just withdraw right away, more often than not when a sportsbook gives you a bonus deposit you will have to bet that amount of money over a period of time before you can empty your account.
However, the bonus money is free money for us to bet with, even if we can’t withdraw it right away.
As we all search for angles and edges to help us beat the sportsbook, if we aren’t taking advantage of all the bonuses available to us as bettors, we are definitely leaving money on the table.