NFL Week 7 Parlay

The Cleveland Browns topped the once-undefeated San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, and with that loss from San Fran, betting slips were torn to shreds all across the country.

Including my own.

This 49ers squad, one that is the betting favorite to win Super Bowl 58, should not be losing to a team led by P.J. Walker, a man that quarterbacked the Houston Roughnecks of the XFL just a few years ago.

To be fair, Walker threw for 15 touchdowns in only five games in the XFL.

That’s pretty good, I guess.

Anyway, the parlay formula for Week 7 remains the same, one underdog moneyline, two spreads, and one over and one under.

This week’s parlay slip will be placed at FanDuel.

Moneyline – Detroit Lions (+132) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Step aside Dallas, Detroit is “America’s Team”.

At least for this year.

The Lions have made a lot of noise early in the season, but somehow Jared Goff is quietly creeping up the MVP odds.

Jared Goff was stellar today! 🏈#OnePride

352 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 INT.pic.twitter.com/xPp6fwuhFI

— Sports Interaction (@SIASport) October 16, 2023

Goff is currently +1900 to win the MVP on FanDuel, after starting the season at roughly +3000.

That’s a good value all its own.

For this Week 7 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, I like Goff’s chances to pick apart a Ravens’ defense that has had a soft schedule against opposing QBs.

In the first three weeks, Baltimore faced C.J. Stroud of the Texans, in Stroud’s first NFL game, then faced a hobbled Joe Burrow of the Bengals in Week 2, and Colts’ backup Gardner Minshew in Week 3.

Somehow, when it comes to opposing QBs, things have become even softer for the Ravens.

Week 5 saw Baltimore’s defense square up with Browns’ backup/rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

The Ravens picked off Thompson-Robinson three times in a 28-3 romp.

Week 6, Baltimore faced quarterback Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.

The Ravens allowed Pickett to beat them on a 41-yard touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter.

Not a good loss for Baltimore in that one.

Then the Ravens faced off against the “Tennessee Two”, a declining Ryan Tannehill and the erratic Malik Willis.

After entering the game, Willis could only complete as many passes as sacks taken (4).

Goff is going to expose the real Baltimore defense in Week 7.

Spread – Green Bay Packers (-1.5 | -106) vs. Denver Broncos

I’m picking the Packers to cover the spread because I don’t think the Broncos have a desire to win.

Green Bay has enough young and spry players on their team that are actually playing for a future.

For many players and coaches of this Packers group, there are hopes of wet ink on new contracts and one day leaving fingerprints on a sterling silver Lombardi Trophy.

Probably not this year, but maybe sometime down the road. 

On the other sideline, Denver is littered with demoralized and browbeaten veterans just running on fumes and going through the motions.

For many of the Broncos’ players and coaches, their time in the sun has long since passed.

Their tan lines from post-Super Bowl visits to Disney World, now replaced with lines of frustration on their faces. 

Scrapbooks of memories from increasingly distant places, like Seattle and New Orleans, now long forgotten and collecting dust.

Pride no longer exists on this Denver sideline, just a solemn acceptance of an unaccustomed reality.

Oh, jeez. Am I too hard on the Broncos?

Give me Green Bay to cover.

Spread – Cleveland Browns (-2.5 | -104) vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Browns just defeated the San Francisco 49ers by two points in Week 6, and I think they can defeat the Colts by three this week.

Cleveland’s defense held the 49ers to just 215 total yards of offense, and they could immobilize Indianapolis’ offense in Week 7.

If Browns’ starting QB Deshaun Watson suits up, I feel even better about the -2.5 point spread, but even if Watson doesn’t play, I’m still comfortable taking this number, especially at -104.

The Colts expected a boost to their offense with the return of Jonathan Taylor, but Taylor continues to split carries with Zack Moss.

With an inconsistent Gardner Minshew under center, and a workload-feud brewing in the backfield, I don’t see Indianapolis putting up very many points this Sunday.

Cleveland’s stout D will keep the Colts from covering the spread.

Over – Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (o51.5 | -110)

The Philadelphia Eagles’ subpar passing defense complements the Dolphins’ explosive passing offense perfectly.

Just look at how good Tua Tagovailoa has been.

Tua Tagovailoa ranks first among QBs in:

– Passing yards (1,876)
– Passing yards per attempt (9.5)
– Passing TDs (14)
– Passer rating (114.1)
– 20+ yard completions (13)
– % of passes past first down marker (48.7%) pic.twitter.com/mAOqfbtIlE

— PFF (@PFF) October 16, 2023

Good for Tua.

This week, Tagovailoa gets to face an Eagles’ defense that allowed Mac Jones to throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami’s defense is not too good either, so they’ll certainly be allowing some points to Philly.

The Dolphins have allowed 26 points per game, which is 26th in the NFL in scoring defense, and they also sit at a mediocre ranking of 19th in the NFL in passing defense (232.2 passing yards per game) and 20th in rushing defense (114.5 rushing yards per game).

There are offensive weapons on both sidelines in this matchup, and they should keep the scoreboard operator at Lincoln Financial Field busy in this Sunday Night Football showdown.

I’ll say the final score will be 38-31, Dolphins.

Under – Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (u41.5 | -115)

As soon as I heard that Josh Allen is questionable to play in Week 7 against the Patriots, I looked at the total on this game.

The Bills have now scored just 34 points in their last two games combined, and that’s with a healthy Josh Allen.

If Allen doesn’t play, this game could be very low-scoring.

Take Josh Allen away from Buffalo’s offense, put backup QB Kyle Allen under center, toss in the ineptitude of the Patriots’ offense, add in a chance of rain in Foxborough, Massachusetts and you’ve got the perfect witches’ brew for a terribly played football game.

Those are solid ingredients for an under.

I’ll say the final score will be 13-3, Bills.

NFL Week 7 Parlay Odds – FanDuel
Parlay Legs	Odds
Detroit (ML) vs. Baltimore	+132
Green Bay (-1.5) vs. Denver	-106
Cleveland (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis	-104
OVER 51.5 (MIA vs. PHI)	-110
UNDER 41.5 (BUF vs. NE)	-115
Parlay Odds	+3056

Good luck to all of you with your parlays for Week 7 of the NFL season.

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 7 odds analysis worth checking out.