2024 AFC West Odds

Lukasz

Updated: Aug 11, 2023

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At the beginning of the 2022 season, many experts predicted a lot of parity within the AFC West Division.

At the start of the season, you had Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson as the four starting QBs in the AFC West. 

All four quarterbacks had big expectations before the season started.

Team2022 Overall2022 Divisional
Kansas City Chiefs14-36-0
Los Angeles Chargers10-72-4
Las Vegas Raiders6-113-3
Denver Broncos5-121-5

When the regular season played out, it became apparent that the West still belonged to the gunslinging Kansas City Chiefs and that the other three teams in the division still had work to do if they expected to compete with KC.

In 2023, it will be interesting to see if Herbert and his LA Chargers can take that next step.

Maybe even more interesting to watch will be how Russell Wilson fares in his second season in Denver.

Year one with the Broncos was a disaster for everyone involved.

Can year two in Denver be a whole lot better?

In our article below, we discuss:

  • 2023 AFC West – Win Totals
  • 2023 AFC West – Super Bowl
  • 2023 AFC West – Division Winner
  • AFC West – Player Awards Betting

Let’s Go!

2023 AFC West Win Totals

Despite winning 14 regular season games last year, the Chiefs’ win total has been set at +11.5 for 2023. However, that total is heavily juiced towards the over. 

2023 AFC West – Win Totals

TeamDraftKingsFanDuelCaesars
Kansas City Chiefs+11.5 | O -140+11.5 | O -134+11.5 | O -145
Los Angeles Chargers+9.5 | O -120+9.5 | O -128+9.5 | O -140
Las Vegas Raiders+7.5 | O +160+6.5 | O -118+7.5 | O +170
Denver Broncos+8.5 | O -110+8.5 | O +106+8.5 | O -115

The Chargers are interesting because last year they won 10 games, but their number this year is set just under that. Again, sportsbooks have heavily juiced the over.

Russell Wilson made a lot of headlines last year but for all the wrong reasons. Denver had Super Bowl aspirations before the year started, and ended up winning just five games.

Sportsbooks have set their win total at 8.5 this year, which is a big jump from five.

This year, it will be fun to see if Russ can figure it out in Denver and earn some of that $245 Million contract he signed with the Broncos.

2023 AFC West – To Win Super Bowl Odds

The last time an NFL team repeated as Super Bowl Champions was way back in 2004 and 2005 when some guy named Tom Brady helped his New England Patriots win back-to-back titles.

AFC South Teams – Super Bowl Odds

TeamDraftKingsFanDuelCaesars
Kansas City Chiefs+600+600+600
Los Angeles Chargers+2500+2500+2500
Denver Broncos+4000+4500+400
Las Vegas Raiders+6500+6500+4500

With 14 regular season wins, the Chiefs held off the Buffalo Bills to earn the top seed in the AFC last year.

The Chargers made the playoffs as the 5th seed in the AFC and had a 27-point lead in their playoff game against Jacksonville before the Jags mounted a huge comeback.

If the Chargers can use their playoff collapse from a year ago as motivation, they may have a chance to upset the Chiefs this year.

However, if the Chargers still have playoff demons to deal with after blowing a 27-point lead last year, you should leave them alone until they prove capable in the post-season.

2023 AFC West – To Win Division Odds

When we talked about the AFC West at the beginning of the 2022 season, it was all about parity and quarterback play.

Fast forward to the beginning of the 2023 season, and there is far less talk about parity in the West.

AFC West Teams – Division Winnerl Odds

TeamOdds2022 Divisional Record
Kansas City Chiefs-1606-0
Los Angeles Chargers+2602-4
Denver Broncos+7003-3
Las Vegas Raiders+14001-5

As the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs have earned the right to be the betting favorite.

Denver and Las Vegas had years to forget in 2022, and the odds reflect how both teams struggled.

Although Derek Carr showed he wasn’t the answer in LV last year, it’s hard for anyone to believe that Jimmy Garoppolo is the solution.

This could be a three-team race if Denver figures out what went wrong in 2022. If not, only the Chargers and Chiefs will be discussed as genuine Super Bowl contenders in late December.

2023 AFC West – Player Awards Odds

In 2022, Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP award, capturing 48 of the 50 MVP votes. (96%)

Mahomes was the 10th consecutive quarterback to win the award, so we will focus on AFC West QBs and their 2023 pre-season odds to win this year’s MVP.

2023 NFL MVPr – Odds

PlayerTeamMVP Odds
Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs+700
Justin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers+1300
Russell WilsonDenver Broncos+3500
Jimmy GaroppoloLas Vegas Raiders+8000

Before Mahomes last year, Aaron Rodgers was the two-time defending NFL MVP, so there is very recent precedent proving players can win back-to-back MVP titles.

However, Justin Herbert at +1300 is something worth considering as well. The analytics community ikes Herbert, and he continues to put up big passing numbers each year he has been in the league.

Russell Wilson was routinely in the MVP conversation when he was with Seattle. After one year in Denver, his odds have fallen to +3500, which puts him at the same level as Jared Goff, and Geno Smith – the QB who replaced Wilson in Seattle.

Interesting AFC West Bets to Consider

Russell Wilson was a huge disappointment in his first year with the Denver Broncos.

After so many great seasons in Seattle, Denver had high expectations when they made the trade to acquire Russ.

Russell Wilson to win Comeback Player of the Year Award

PlayerDraftKingsFanDuel
Russell Wilson+2000+3000

Whether it was Russell at fault, the coaching situation that hampered the offense, or just an off-year for a great player, something was clearly different last year for Wilson.

This year’s NFL comeback player of the Year Award is an opportunity for those who believe Wilson will bounce back.

Last year Denver won just five games.

This year their win total has been set at +8.5. If Denver can get to nine or more wins this year, there is an excellent chance that Wilson is once again putting up Russell Wilson-like stats.

At +3000 with FanDuel, that might be an opportunity worth considering.

Always Shop Around

As recreational sports bettors, it can be a great feeling to spend time in the data science lab, studying the stats and data to make the right bet.

However, it’s important to understand that if we are looking for an advantage against the sportsbooks, there is no bigger opportunity than shopping around for the best available odds.

Using our comeback player of the year award odds, we see that DraftKings has Russell Wilson at +2000, and FanDuel lists him at +3000.

For a $10 bettor, that is a $100 difference in profit, just with one single wager.

The ability to shop around for your Best Odds can increase your overall ROI by over 20% or more.

The reality is if you aren’t shopping around for your Best Odds, then you are leaving money on the table in our long-term pursuit of being a profitable sports bettor.

Betting Odds For AFC Divisions

2024 AFC South Division Odds

2024 AFC North Division Odds

2024 AFC East Division Odds

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About the author

Lukasz Strycharz | Web Manager – A flâneur who follows Formula One racing and dabbles in SEO and content in the iGaming and sports betting niche. T...

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