Current Odds To Win NCAA Basketball Championship

When last year’s March Madness tournament finally came to an end, it was the Connecticut Huskies who were the last team standing.

UConn entered the tourney as a four seed and was +1500 to win the championship.

Less than 2% of tournament brackets picked the Huskies to win it all.

Yet when the last four teams remained, the once underdog Huskies had become the betting favorites.

2023 Final Four Teams

Teams	Final Four Appearances (before last year)	Championships
Florida Atlantic	0	0
San Diego State	0	0
Miami	0	0
UConn	6	5

Millions of March Madness brackets were filled out last year – and not one of them – not yours, and definitely not mine – included Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, and Miami, all reaching the Final Four.

With that in mind, we will do our best to identify several teams with a better-than-average chance of being this year’s National Champion.

Let’s go!

The below article contains the following:

• CBB – Top Teams and Analysis
• Popular NCAA Basketball Championship Bets
• Final Four: Betting Strategies
• Final Four: Prop Betting
• Always Shop Around

Current Odds To Win NCAA Basketball Championship

Duke +1100 To Win National Championship

For the first time in 42 years, the Duke Blue Devils played a college basketball season without Mike Krzyzewski as their head coach. John Scheyer was given the unenviable task of trying to replace a legend.

The Blue Devils were slow out of the gate last year but closed strong by winning the ACC tournament. Duke earned a five seed into the tournament and beat an overmatched Oral Roberts in the first round – before being dismissed by the fourth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers in the round of 32.

As always, Duke will have lots of talent on the court this year. 7’0” big man Kyle Filipowski returns and is expected to dominate most of his matchups this year.

Watch for Tyrese Proctor to take another big step in his development and help make the Blue Devils a real threat.

I always assume there is a tax to pay for betting on Duke. When I see them at +1100, I convince myself they are closer to +1400. I feel the same way about the Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL.

Kansas +1100 To Win National Championship

No team in the country enters the 2023 season with bigger expectations than the Kansas Jayhawks. Bill Self and his squad cut down the nets only two years ago and raised the championship trophy above their heads.

Last year, Kansas finished with a 28-8 record and entered the tournament as a number one seed. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they were upset in the second round by 8th-seeded Arkansas, and their goal of winning back-to-back titles was over much quicker than most of us predicted.

This year’s team has returning key players Dajuan Harris Jr and KJ Adams Jr. They will also be joined by Hunter Dickinson.

Dickinson arrives in Kanas via the transfer portal. Dickinson was a big-time player for three years at Michigan, and his arrival in Lawrence has made Kansas one of the early-season betting favorites.

Purdue +1100 To Win National Championship

For many big men playing college basketball, the thought of guarding Zach Edey without help can be terrifying.

However, there was a day when the Canadian Big Man was also a two-sport athlete, taking his skills to the hardwood and the ice rink.

With all due respect to those trying to guard Edey on the court, imagine carrying the puck over the blue line and having a 7-foot defenseman waiting to step into you.

Yikes!

Edey doesn’t play much hockey anymore, which is good if you are a fan of Boilermakers basketball or an intramural hockey player attending Purdue.

Last year, the Boilermakers were a great team right up until they weren’t. By that, we mean they earned a number-one seed after a great regular season, but they made history in the tournament for all the wrong reasons.

Fairleigh Dickinson shocked the world, knocking off Purdue in the opening round and becoming the second 16th-seed to knock off a one-seed.

As good as FDU was – we believe that Purdue shooting 5 for 26 from beyond the arc (19%) was the main reason they lost.

We suspect that Edey and company will have a chip on their shoulder this year, and Purdue will again be in the conversation as a team to watch come March.

Michigan St +1500 To Win National Championship

At different times of the season last year, Purdue, Kansas, and Duke looked like championship-caliber teams, and you could find compelling reasons to bet on them to win a National Title.

Michigan State was a good team last year, with some impressive wins – but the optimism surrounding their program this year is based on returning players maturing and progressing.

Head Coach Tom Izzo did rally the troops for a tournament run last year.

The Spartans entered the Madness as a 7th seed and knocked off USC in the first round and then a very good (2-seed) Marquette team – before running out of gas against Kansas State in the Sweet 16.

Maybe the biggest reason for optimism in East Lansing this year is based on their incoming class of recruits.

24/7 Sports ranks the Michigan State incoming recruits as the fifth-best class country-wide.

The most talked about recruit is Xavier Booker, considered a 5-star prospect before enrolling with the Spartans. The 6’10” big man should make an immediate impact for Coach Izzo and the company.

Kentucky +1800 To Win National Championship

In 1996, Rick Pitino won a National Championship as the Head Coach of the Kentucky Wildcats.

Only two years later, Tubby Smith guided the Wildcats to another National Title.

Fourteen years after Tubby Smith, John Calipari guided the Wildcats to their 8th championship of all time and third in 16 years.

Calipari was expected to win multiple titles while the boss in Kentucky – but it hasn’t played out that way.

Just two years after his first title with the ‘Cats, Calipari was back in the National Championship game. However, Kentucky was on the wrong end of a 60-54 defeat.

Since then, Calipari has made a couple of Final Four and Elite Eight appearances.

However, he hasn’t been able to make it rain confetti from the rafters since that 2012 championship season.

The last three years in Kentucky have been far from Wildcats standards.

Kentucky – Last 3 Years

Year	Overall Record	Tournament Results
2022-’23	22-12	Lost in the Second Round
2021-’22	26-8	Lost in the First Round
2020-’21	9-16	Did Not Qualify

Going over a decade between championships will make Kentucky fans get a little edgy.

Going three years without making a Sweet 16 in Kentucky will fill the phone lines on local talk radio all day long.

Popular NCAA Basketball Championship Bets

The possibilities are endless for betting on the Final Four and Championship games.

Bettors will have hundreds of bets available for the tournament’s final three games.

The most popular bets have traditionally been Point Spread, Moneyline, and Totals (Over/Under).

Moneyline

With a moneyline bet, you’re simply betting on who will win the game.

This is the most straightforward wager for bettors because the goal is simply to pick the winner. There are no other facts to consider.

Here is an example of a moneyline bet from this year’s Final Four.

• Miami Hurricanes +210
• UConn Huskies -250

The Huskies are the betting favorite, so they have a (-) sign before their odds.

If you wanted to win $100 by betting on UConn, you would have to wager $250 on the Huskies to win back $100 in profit.

The Miami Hurricanes are the underdog in our game above. We can determine they are the underdog by the (+) before their odds.

A $100 wager on Miami would return a profit of $210.

Point Spread

With point spreads, you’re simply backing a team to win by a specific margin or to avoid losing by a specific margin.

In short, the team that you pick has to cover the spread.

Here’s an example of how a point spread would look like:

• Florida Atlantis +2 (-110)
• San Diego State -2 (-110)

If you back SDSU, they need to win by more than 2 points for you to win your wager.

If you back the underdogs from FAU, they can lose by less than 2 points or win the game outright, and your bet will cash.

A game that SDSU wins by precisely two points would be considered a push, with all money refunded.

Totals

Totals betting is also known as over/under betting.

Here, you’re simply betting on the game’s total score and whether it will exceed or fall below the total set by the sportsbook.

For example, the total in the FAU vs SDSU is set at 131.5.

If the combined score of that game totals 132 points or more, the game will be considered OVER the total.

Obviously, any combined score of 131 or less will be considered a win for the Under.

Final Four: Prop Betting

When placing some action on the Final Four games, bettors today have many options, which can sometimes feel overwhelming when trying to pick through all the different prop bets available.

Traditionally, we have relied on point spreads, moneylines, and totals to get us through big games.

Those options are being surpassed by the many prop bets, now available at all legal sportsbooks.

Some of the more popular player prop betting options include:

• Player Points
• Player Assists
• Player Rebounds
• Combined Player Points + Assists + Rebounds

Some of the more popular game prop betting options include:

• Correct Final Score
• Race To X Points (10, 20, 30 and more)
• Game To Go To OT
• Final Winning Margin

With the increased focus on technology and access to data at an all-time high, sportsbooks continue to invent fun and creative prop betting options that the betting public enjoys as much or more than traditional bets.

Final Four: Betting Strategies

Pay Attention To Spreads, Not Seeds

When the 9th-seeded FAU Owls take on the 5th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs, all bettors know that the Owls will be the underdog come tip-off.

Whenever a 9-seed plays a 5-seed, we can safely assume the 5-seed, barring a recent injury to a star player, will be the betting favorite.

However, the parity in college basketball continues to grow each year.

Often, from a betting standpoint, there is very little difference between teams seeded 5th through 9th.

In the case of San Diego State and Florida Atlantic, we are talking about only a +2 point spread. Upsets happen, and this year has reminded us of that fact.

However, we shouldn’t be overly shocked when a 9th seed can compete hard against a 5-seed when the spread is only +2 points. In fact, a +2 point spread tells us we should expect a close game.

Often, as bettors, we can see where a team is seeded and draw conclusions about how good that team is.

The better method of evaluating teams is to look at the point spread for their games.

Sportsbooks and sharp bettors know how good or bad a team is.

They use point spreads and moneylines to signal to us what they expect to happen in a game.

We should all be paying close attention to those clues and not assuming based on the seeding a team has.

Always Shop Around

We have already talked about the sportsbooks’ advantages over the recreational bettor, including the juice applied to each bet and the time and resources spent analyzing data.

However, we haven’t mentioned that the recreational sports bettor has a serious advantage over the sportsbooks, which is our ability to shop around and play using the Best Odds available.

Team	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	PointsBet
Florida Atlantic	+650	+500	+625	+600
Miami, FL	+450	+440	+475	+475
San Diego St.	+400	+380	+375	+375
UConn	-125	-130	-125	-125

Looking at the odds to win the National Championship above, we can see that a FanDuel bettor could win $500 in profit with a $100 wager on FAU, but a DraftKings bettor could win $650 in profit for the same bet amount.

That is a $150 difference in profit just with one bet.

Over time, a sports bettor can increase their profit and bankroll by upwards of 20%, or higher, simply by shopping around.