2024 BestOdds NFL Win Total Guide

In 2023, Bill Belichick is the overwhelming underdog regarding the New England Patriots winning their division, the AFC East.

Let’s let that sink in for a moment. The Great Belichick, arguably the most decorated coach the sport has ever seen, is an overwhelming underdog.

Odds To Win AFC East – 2023

Team	Odds	2022 Record	2023 Win Total
Buffalo Bills	+120	13-3	+10.5
New York Jets	+250	7-10	+9.5
Miami Dolphins	+290	9-8	+9.5
New England Patriots	+800	8-9	+7.5

The AFC East, at least on paper, is stacked heading into the 2023 season.

Last year, the Jets and Miami were both 3-3 within the division. Will either of those teams be able to get to four wins within their six division games?

Will the Patriots be a walk-over for the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins, or will they disrupt things for bettors by beating Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, and all the other great players on those three teams?

Win totals betting isn’t always easy, but it can be a lot of fun.

Bettors need to visualize a season-long narrative for a team, and then compare that to the actual win total set by sportsbooks.

Will Bill Belichick once again prove he is a coaching genius, take a lesser-talented roster, and beat some AFC East heavyweights, and go OVER +7.5 wins this year?

Will the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins steamroll the undermanned Patriots, causing them to win only one or two of their six division games, and fall short of the required 8-wins to go over their total?

The Patriots have a win total set at +7.5 this season. Which side of that number would you like them to finish on?

What Is Win Totals Betting?

Betting on an NFL team’s win total means we are betting OVER or UNDER on the total wins assigned to them by a sportsbook.

Aaron Rodgers and his new New York Jets have a win total of 9.5.

As a bettor, we decide if Rodgers’ impact on his new team will be enough to win more or less than the 9.5 games set by the books.

It’s just that easy.

NFL Win Totals Betting – 5 Teams To Consider

New York Jets +9.5 Win Total

The 2022 Jets had a truly emblematic Jets-type season, a mix of many highs and many lows.

While they boasted one of the league’s best defensive units, ranking 4th in both scoring defense (18.6 points per game) and yards allowed (311.1 YPG), their offense struggled significantly.

The Zach Wilson experiment provided more comical and frustrating moments than success.

The team even resorted to trying various quarterbacks like Mike White, Joe Flacco, and something called Chris Streveler in a desperate bid to ignite some semblance of a spark on offense.

Now, the Jets have pinned their hopes on the legendary Aaron Rodgers to lead them to their first Super Bowl appearance in 44 years.

Oddsmakers and bettors are optimistic about the new-look Jets, giving them +270 odds to win the AFC East

2023 Jets Season Outlook (+9.5 Win Total)

For the fourth straight season, we will see if a veteran QB can change addresses late in their career and find success.

While that move paid off for the Bucs (Tom Brady) and Rams (Matthew Stafford), we saw what could happen when it blows up in a team’s face with the 2022 Denver Broncos and their acquisition of Russell Wilson

If the Jets’ defense continues their dominant play from a year ago, and Rodgers shows that his ayahuasca-fueled darkness retreat can help him sustain his elite play in his 19th season, this is a team that can make a lot of noise.

However, we’re still skeptical that this will all work in the magical way Jets fans and pundits see it playing out. Rodgers did show signs of age a season ago, and now moves to a loaded division and even deeper conference.

We think the win total is pretty on the nose, and the Jets finish at 9-8 this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 Win Total

It’s crazy what can happen to an NFL team when they have a capable coach running the show.

A year following the worst one-year tenure in NFL history under Urban Meyer, Doug Pederson led the Jags to the divisional round of the playoffs, where they gave eventual Super Bowl Champs, the KC Chiefs, all they could handle.

Oddsmakers consider the Jags the new top dog in the AFC South. Jacksonville has an over/under preseason win total set at 9.5 games, largely because of the general view of their division as a whole.

2023 Jaguars Season Outlook (+9.5 Wins)

Analyzing the Jags’ chances in 2023 is tricky. On one hand, they are unquestionably the team to beat in the division that will likely see rookie QBs playing for the bulk of the season.

Outside of those division games, the Jags will be tested much more.

We like their odds of winning the AFC South a bit better than the odds to top 9.5 wins on the season.

This line feels a bit trappy, considering oddsmakers are banking on bettors to simply fade the

rest of the division and not account for the other difficult games on the schedule.

We think the Jags will finish the season once again as 9-8 AFC South Champions and will take the under on their win total here.

Denver Broncos +8.5 Win Total

It wasn’t supposed to go this way in the Mile High City a year ago.

The Broncos made the biggest trade of the 2022 offseason when they traded five draft picks and three players to the Seahawks in exchange for Russell Wilson.

The acquisition of Wilson and hire of former Packers’ OC Nathaniel Hackett was supposed to end Denver’s six-year playoff drought and put the franchise back on a winning trajectory.

Instead, the trade brought a 5-12 season to the Mile High City and turned Wilson into an internet punchline, particularly his rallying cry of “BRONCO COUNTRY. LET’S RIDE!!”

Ownership opened the checkbook again to lure former Saints’ HC Sean Payton to the team.

Will Payton have the antidote to save Russell Wilson’s incredible fall from grace and end the Broncos’ long postseason drought?

2023 Broncos Season Outlook (+9.5 Wins)

The Broncos will be one of the most popular teams bettors back to bounce back following a disastrous season the year before.

The question is, should they be?

While there is much to be said about the poor job of coaching Nathaniel Hackett showed in his only season as head coach, it cannot be overstated just how poorly Russell Wilson looked a season ago.

If Russ can get back to the version he was in Seattle for so many years, the Broncos’ schedule does offer spots where Denver should be able to rack up some easier wins.

We’re not entirely sold on the Broncos’ status as a dark horse in the AFC, but we do like them to finish 9-8 on the year.

Chicago Bears +7.5 Win Total

The Justin Fields era enters its third season, and the Bears will quickly realize if they have the right signal caller for the future, or if it may be time to entertain going in a different direction.

GM Ryan Poles passed on the chance to take Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud to pivot to a different direction at QB and instead used the #1 overall pick as a trade piece to begin to get Fields some help.

After Matt Eberflus gutted the defensive personnel to begin to fit his vision more closely, the Bears are a prime candidate to start their rise back to contention.

But the road to get there could be a bumpy one in 2023.

Oddsmakers anticipate some modest improvement in the Windy City this season as the Bears’ preseason win total has been set at an over/under of 7.5 games.

2023 Bears Season Outlook (+7.5 Wins)

The Bears hope a busy offseason of signings and trades will be enough to start moving them in the right direction in a wide-open NFC North division.

However, there are still quite a few weaknesses along the roster that they will need to navigate through in order to eclipse their win total of 7.5 games this season.

We think the Bears are certainly heading in the right direction, but banking on them to go from 3 wins to 8 or more is a leap a bit too far for our liking.

Carolina Panthers +7.5 Win Total

After languishing under coach Matt Rhule and a revolving door at quarterback that ranged from the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and even bringing Cam Newton back, Panthers’ owner David Tepper finally had enough.

They decided to clean house and aggressively move up in the draft to secure a franchise QB.

The team eventually hired former Colts’ HC Frank Reich, ironically the first QB to take a snap for the Panthers’ organization when the team entered the NFL in 1995, and selected Alabama’s Bryce Young with the #1 pick in the 2023 Draft.

How will Year 1 in Charlotte go for the Panthers’ new coach and QB?

2023 Panthers Season Outlook (+7.5 Wins)

While the Panthers are certainly headed in the right direction, they will likely be underdogs in the first six games of the season before the schedule gets a bit easier after the bye week.

With that said, we feel there are one too many significant changes to the team between a rookie quarterback and a new coaching staff with an entirely new defensive scheme.

The Panthers have all the makings of a team that will likely improve as the season goes on, but finding eight wins on the schedule is difficult, and we are taking the under on their win total here.

NFL Win Totals – Betting

Information Is Already Baked Into The Totals

• The 49ers have a great run defense.
• Trevor Lawrence might be developing into an MVP candidate.
• In the games played last year, Tua’s stats were as impressive as almost any other QB (except Mahomes) in the league.

Savvy football fans already know all of the above, and we can be guaranteed the sportsbooks do as well.

Don’t assume you know more than the sportsbooks because you are a passionate fan.

Trust me when I say – they are also passionate about their work. They are also very good at what they do.

Pick Your Spots

There are 32 NFL Teams. Some of them you might feel passionate about and believe you have a good understanding of what their future entails.

Other teams (insert the entire NFC South here), maybe you just don’t care about them.

Pick your spots with your bets. Understand your strengths and weaknesses from a knowledge standpoint.

• Bet what you know.
• Track your bets
• Learn from your mistakes
• Repeat

Line Shopping

Look for the same team totals in different sportsbooks to see which one pays the most.

If the Steelers’ win total is 8.5 wins, and one sportsbook pays the over at -110, you can shop around and find another that pays it at +105.

Get bigger profits by shopping around at different online sportsbooks.

Recency Bias

Recency bias means the performances of a player or team in the recent past affect bettors’ decisions on a current wager.

Inflated Lines

These are the byproducts of public bettors going heavy on one team.

Recency bias may impact that. The bettors can use this to find value by fading the public and getting bigger payouts.

The Ultimate Win Totals Betting Resource:

As NFL fans and NFL bettors, we all get excited for Sunday, and the chance to dive through a full slate of NFL games, look over the point spreads, moneylines, totals, and everything else we are interested in betting on.

How often do we see a game, see a point spread, and make a betting decision- without actually doing any homework at all?

This type of betting is sometimes called “An 8-second handicap”.

One of the main reasons people will handicap a game within 8 seconds or less, is because the work involved in digging up relevant stats and information can be time-consuming and difficult.

If you are into NFL Win Totals betting, you no longer have an excuse to make your decisions without diving through some information first.

BestOdds.com, and BestOdds EDGE have a 2023 NFL Win Totals betting guide that allows you to quickly jump to any team, get yourself informed, and make better win total betting decisions.