The NFL 2021 season requires a bit of an adjustment from the bettors’ side. For starters, the regular season will have 17 games instead of the usual 16.
The totals market is then impacted as never before. One game is a massive difference in football.
Forget about those 10-6 and 5-11 records. That 10-6 can turn into an 11-6, or a 5-11 can become a 5-12. The extra game will matter as sportsbooks find a projected number of wins a team will have at the end of the regular season.
Total bets are one of the most popular future bets available.
They are appealing to every bettor. It involves predicting the outcome of an entire team before the season starts.
The Cardinals have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with game-changers all around the field on both offense and defense. However, two things stand in the way of the Cardinals’ success.
The NFC West is the hardest division of them all, and Kliff Kingsbury is not a good head coach. They should be playoff contenders if Kingsbury does his job.
The Falcons will have an explosive offense since their talent is big. Oh, and they have HC Arthur Smith on the sidelines. He is a brilliant offensive mind. As for their defense, well we’ve got nothing positive to say about it.
It’s a high number considering the AFC North is quite competitive. However, they have a solid roster. The offense was reinforced with new receivers. You can expect a big season from the Ravens.
The Bills are a Super Bowl contender, and they are a top-three team in the NFL. The Bills are as strong—or stronger—than they were in 2020.
Matt Rhule’s era as head coach for Carolina was a positive one. Now they have new QB Sam Darnold taking the lead on offense. The doubt is on their defensive side, which is young and has to develop quickly.
Well, the Bears might as well solve their QB issue first. Whether it is Andy Dalton or Justin Fields, the Bears’ offense should improve. If Aaron Rodgers leaves the Packers, this is Chicago’s division for the taking.
Joe Burrow is back under center for the Bengals, but they are still the weakest team in the AFC North. Plus, coming back from a brutal knee injury is not easy. It’s going to be an intriguing season for HC Zac Taylor, as his job may be under the hot seat.
The Browns are now a serious threat in the AFC. Forget about the team who was the league’s laughing-stock, and they are going for the glory. Ten wins are an achievable number.
Dak Prescott returns after a season-ending leg injury. That means, on paper, that the Dallas offense will produce the goods. Dallas should aim for at least nine wins with the extended season, considering their division is not strong at all.
The Broncos have a nice roster. They also brought talented players like CBs Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby. Their main issue is not having a good enough QB to take them to the playoffs.
Detroit has a new QB, a new head coach, and one of the worst rosters in the NFL. They won’t win much.
The Packers are a Super Bowl contender if Aaron Rodgers stays as the team QB. If he leaves, the Packers won’t even make the playoffs. We have to wait to see how the story unfolds.
Houston is, by far, the team with fewer expectations in the whole NFL. They have literally made every wrong move there is in the NFL. They have little to no talent, and four wins is a lot to bet on.
The Colts are a team to watch. If QB Carson Wentz delivers, they are a dangerous team. They have also won 10 or more games in two of the last three seasons.
It’s a new era for the Jags. There is a new HC in Urban Meyer and a new rookie franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence. Expectations for the future are bright, but not for this year. There is a lot to work on before thinking of success.
In a 17-game regular season, the Chiefs have the highest projected wins of all. The back-to-back AFC champions improved over the offseason. You can expect another run at the Lombardi.
The Raiders just decided to get rid of their offensive line for no reason. Also, the fact that Jon Gruden’s teams usually go in a downward spiral in the second halves of the season lowers the wins for the Raiders.
With one of the most talented offensive lines, QB Justin Herbert will be a must-watch talent. The Chargers have a loaded roster and a new head coach to exploit those talents. They should be a genuine threat to the upper echelon in the AFC.
The arrival of QB Matthew Stafford has sky-rocketed the stock for the Rams. It’s on him and HC Sean McVay to prove the oddsmakers right on their projections, as they play in the highly competitive NFC West.
The Dolphins won 10 games last season but couldn’t make it into the playoffs. The doubts surrounding second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa are real. Nevertheless, Miami gave him weapons to deliver the goods. It’s go time for the Fins.
There are two main issues for the Vikings. One is the unreliable QB Kirk Cousins, who appears to buckle under pressure every time. The other is the dreadful secondary.
While Cousins will still be there, they did add some firepower to their defense in the likes of CB Patrick Peterson.
There is big uncertainty as to what the Patriots will bring in 2021. They will compete all season long, but there are still lots of question marks. Who will be QB1 between Cam Newton and Mac Jones seems to be the bigger one.
No Drew Brees means a new era for the Saints. They have a talented team, but neither Taysom Hill nor Jameis Winston looks like a franchise QB. Still, the Saints should win games based on the rest of their talented roster.
RB Saquon Barkley will be back, and the receiving corps of the Giants is loaded. However, when you have a turnover-prone QB and don’t protect him, bad things happen.
Daniel Jones is on the hot seat as the Giants’ signal-caller this season.
The Jets brought in new head coach Robert Saleh to forget all the bad Adam Gase did. Also, they moved on from Sam Darnold to bring rookie QB, Zach Wilson.
It’s the beginning of a new era for the Jets, but lots of work still needs to be done.
Another team enters into rebuild mode. The Eagles’ talent is scarce at best, and their cap situation is not good either. They will rely on the connection between QB Jalen Hurts and rookie WR Devonta Smith to make some noise.
Mike Tomlin has never had an under .500 season as head coach. Even though they have talent in their roster, their O-Line is really compromised, and QB Ben Roethlisberger is not getting younger. They will have to dig deep to make it into the playoffs.
A healthy Niners squad is a Super Bowl contender. If injuries stay away from HC Kyle Shanahan’s boys, they will be an NFC powerhouse.
When your QB is Russell Wilson, you’re allowed to dream. He has never had a losing season. Seattle needs to solve their O-Line issue, but it hasn’t been done in years.
Their pass rush also needs to improve, but the Seahawks will make noise. Their offense is as explosive as they come.
The defending champs brought all their starters back. You can rest assured they will be in the mix once again. QB Tom Brady guided a new team with no preseason to a Super Bowl win. He did it at 43 years old and with a torn MCL, you know, Brady things…
They should only get better this year.
The defense was atrocious for the Titans last year. They brought EDGE Bud Dupree, DE Denico Autry, and CB Janoris Jenkins to solve the problem.
On offense, WR Julio Jones arrived to join forces with WR AJ Brown, RB Derrick Henry, and QB Ryan Tannehill. The AFC South is also winnable; Tennessee should be good.
A team with an elite defense and a new gunslinger in reckless QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Washington will entertain the daylights out of fans as they try to win a second consecutive NFC East title.
Totals fall into the ‘futures’ category. This means you place your bet, but the result will be determined at a future date, meaning the end of the regular season.
In win totals, the oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for every team in the NFL. The bettor then decides whether the team goes over or under the number set by the books.
Both sides of the bet will have moneyline odds attached to them.
These odds have a minus (-) or a plus (+) sign next to them. These will define the payout they give. The (-) sign represents the amount the bettor has to risk to win $100. The (+) signs mean the amount the bettor would win based on a $100 bet.
For example, the New York Jets projected win total is six games. You will find something like this:
New York Jets: Over 6 games (-110) / Under 6 games (-110)
In this case, both sides of the bet require you to risk $110 to win $100.
As said before, this falls under the future bets umbrella. The bettor will look for the ‘NFL Futures’ tabs in the NFL section. You can find the win totals named ‘Team Futures’ or ‘Regular-Season Wins.’
Look for the same team totals in different sportsbooks to see which one pays the most. If the Steelers win total is 8.5 wins, and one sportsbook pays the over at -110, you can shop around and find another that pays it at +105.
Get bigger profits by shopping around at different online sportsbooks.
Recency bias means the performances of a player or team in the recent past affect bettors’ decisions on a current wager.
These are the byproduct of public bettors going heavy on one team. Recency bias may impact that. The bettors can use this to find value by fading the public and get bigger payouts.