Updated: Nov 23, 2022
If you are looking for current NFL predictions for SGP. You can find today’s picks here.
In 1949, Nevada became the first State to legalize sports betting, forever changing its perception and popularity with the rest of the non-legalized world.
In 1976, Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal opened the Stardust Sportsbook.
Although Stardust is not the first sportsbook to be opened in Las Vegas, it is the first stand-alone sportsbook that became the model for all other sportsbooks we are familiar with today.
The Stardust opened with six big screen televisions and seating for almost 300.
Today, the Vegas strip is populated with elaborate sportsbooks, offering tons of viewing options and seating for hundreds of sports betting fans.
For almost 70 years, bettors made all kinds of interesting and unique wagers but were never able to build a parlay using events from the same game.
That all changed a few years ago when FanDuel developed their own pricing for Same Game Parlays and became the first sportsbook to offer them to the betting public.
Today, most licensed and regulated online sportsbooks offer Same Game Parlays, also known as SGPs.
They have become extremely popular with the betting community, and below, we offer you some tips and insights to help you become more successful with your SGP bets.
Betting NFL SGP
There is no better feeling for a sports bettor than to land that juicy, beautiful parlay and get a big payout in the process.
While opinions are not unanimous as to where the parlay betting goes, there is a solid point to it.
If you find a setting where winning one leg in the parlay increases the chances of getting Ws on the other legs, well, every parlay would be a no-brainer to bet.
You would have a big edge on beating the odds, so you will go all in, right?
NFL Parlay Betting
For instance, imagine if you could bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West as the no.1 seed.
And then, add a parlay leg of Patrick Mahomes and company, lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy at the Super Bowl.
By winning their division, they not only get into the playoffs, but they get a crucial home-field advantage.
And, by getting the first seed, the Chiefs would avoid the tougher road of going through the wild card round.
They would have a bye week to rest and prepare. Last but not least, Arrowhead would be a living hell for the teams trying to knock the Chiefs out,
Obviously, this means their chance of coming out as NFL champions after the Super Bowl is way higher. Thus, your once creative parlay would become a superb and smart bet.
Unfortunately, this kind of parlay was shut down by sportsbooks a long time ago. If it was ever even a possibility at all.
The reason they canceled these types of bets is precise that the outcomes are correlated.
No sportsbook will ever shoot themselves in the foot to the risk of making that big of payouts. Or would they leave a bit of room for bettors?
When you thought you had the best experience the parlay world has to offer, the same game parlay enters the equation! Yes, boys -and gals-, we have a sleeper bet type here.
One that may help you boost your bankroll, increase the fun of betting, spice games up, and make you have a new betting possibility.
Let’s review it then!
What Is A NFL Same Game Parlay?
In simple terms, it’s a parlay where every leg is tied up from the same NFL game, so you have correlated results, of sorts. The NFL odds move to consider the correlation.
This is because if not, the bettors’ edge over the sportsbook would be too much.
Still, the NFL’s same game parlays often involve bets as point spreads, totals, and, in some places, even individual player props.
All of these are tied up to the outcome of the same game.
They give the bettor a reason to live the game to its fullest. You’ll find yourself rooting every single play that happens in the gridiron to go your way.
Plain and simple, the same game parlay is a way to maximize the entertainment and interest in an otherwise boring or uninterested matchup.
So what if you don’t usually root for any of the teams involved?
You become a hardcore fan as soon as you submit that bet as long as they deliver the outcome you wagered on.
It’s money, we all root for money, and we all root for those who can give us more money.
NFL Same Game Parlay Betting Strategies
Develop Your NFL Game Narrative
Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are about researching and developing a narrative for how you believe the game will be played.
Once a bettor has a vision for how they believe the game will finish, they can start researching the many different bets offered on that game and partner some correlated odds together.
The obvious strategy is to determine whether you believe a team will score a lot or a small number of points in a game.
Once you have a strong opinion on a team’s ability to score, you can start to pair that with individual player prop bets.
If you believe that the Cowboys will put up a lot of points against the New York Giants, you could bet the Cowboys team total over and then focus on Dak Prescott or CeeDee Lamb prop bets to fill out your card.
If the Cowboys score a lot of points, the odds are that Dak Prescott will have himself a good game. If Dak Prescott has a good game, chances are CeeDee Lamb also had a good day catching the football.
NFL Injuries And Player Usage
One advantage a bettor has over the sportsbooks is reacting quickly when injury news is released. That is especially true if a bettor strongly understands player usage for a particular team.
If Ja’Marr Chase is ruled out for the Cincinnati Bengals, the ten targets per game he averaged will be distributed somewhere else.
Of course, another Bengals receiver will get an opportunity to start in place of Chase. But that doesn’t mean Cincinnati will throw the ball to that player ten times a game as they did with Chase.
Will other Bengals receivers see more opportunities?
Will Cincinnati run the ball more without Chase on the field?
A bettor who can answer those questions accurately can be successful with their SGP bets long term.
Understand NFL Stat Distribution
Once we have developed our game narrative and have an idea of how we believe the game will play out, we try to find correlating bets to support our theory.
However, it is crucial as we are doing that to understand NFL stat distribution and not get caught up in over-betting our narrative.
Let’s use Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs as an example.
A bettor might have a theory that KC and the Las Vegas Raiders will score many points, especially the Chiefs, who are playing at home.
A sportsbook will provide many options for us to bet on this theory. Some of those bets could include:
- JuJu Smith-Schuster to score anytime touchdown
- Marquez Valding-Scantling to score anytime touchdown
- Travis Kelce to score anytime touchdown
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score anytime touchdown
Even if a bettor believes that the Chiefs are about the light up the Raiders’ defense, the odds of all four Kansas City players scoring a touchdown in the game are extremely low.
In this case, a bettor would be wise to study individual player matchups and pick one player or maybe two players to score a touchdown and not all four.
Very rarely in an NFL game would a team have four individual players on offense score a touchdown in the same game.
Maybe Travis Kelce has a significant advantage and could score multiple touchdowns in this case. Maybe Edwards-Helaire has the advantage if Las Vegas struggles to stop the run game.
Understanding stat distribution and how teams score points, even in blowout victories, is critical.
What Are Correlated Odds?
Because of correlated odds, NFL bettors were not allowed to parlay events from the same game on a single ticket.
Simply put, a correlated odds parlay is a bet where the different outcomes are tied together, and if one event occurs, the other one is more likely to occur.
Let’s use Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins as an example.
Correlated Odds Parlay Example:
- Event 1 – Miami Dolphins Under their team total points of 19.5
- Event 2 – Tua Tagovailoa Under 225.5 passing yards
In our example above, the NFL bettor has decided to parlay two events together. The first bet is the Dolphins to go under their team total points, set at 19.5.
The second bet is for the Dolphins starting QB Tua Tagovailoa to go Under his total passing yards, which was set at 225.5 yards.
In this case, the bettor has developed a theory that the Miami Dolphins will not score many points. Therefore, it is likely that Tua doesn’t have a strong game statistically if the Miami offense is shut down.
It is easy to visualize how if one of those events happens, the other would be more likely to occur.
Of course, it is totally possible that Tua doesn’t reach his passing yards total, but Miami still scores more than 20 points. The Dolphins could score on defense, special teams, or both.
Example Of NFL Same Day Parlay
Say you are betting on a specific player to score the first touchdown, and, at the same time, you bet for his team to win the game in a moneyline wager.
Logically, if the player scores the TD, then his team has at least six more points on the board.
This helps the chances of the moneyline bet for his team to also win.
Correlated odds work, basically, like a domino effect that helps the bettor and not the sportsbook.
Of course, for it to help the bettor, one must cash. If not, it’s an inverse effect where your bets go downhill, and the sportsbooks collect the goods.
Here is a deeper example of how this works. Say an underdog wins a game against a usually high-scoring NFL team who happened to be favored in the odds.
They beat them due to an off night for the offense.
It might be that the underdog blitzed and pressured more on defense rather than getting into a crossfire.
The underdog knows they have a better chance to win, clamping in on defense than in a scoring shootout.
The fact that the defense scheme worked translated into a well-paid upset.
This unusual moneyline result (straight-up winner) also favors the underbet in the totals department.
Oh, and it may also help on the under-prop bets of the opposing QBs or receivers, who play for the favored team.
If the bettor was keen enough to foresee this defensive output paying dividends before the game, and how they all correlated into the various markets, it would be a travesty for the sportsbook.
There would be nothing stopping them from betting on each of the mentioned outcomes as straight bets.
Parlaying them, though, is a whole different scenario.
Parlay That Multiplies The Odds
A parlay that multiplies the odds means that the slight edge the bettor may get by smart betting intuition becomes a huge bet.
The magnified odds get multiplied through each of the legs. It’s a massive risk for the sportsbook to lose a bet like that.
Going back to the previous example, say the following odds are what the bettor got:
So, for the sake of the example, say that the bettor had a plus expected value (+EV) case on the moneyline.
That means the odds were greater than the expected chance of winning.
Then this ‘value’ obtained on the first bet multiplies through both of the ‘up-in-the-air’ points and total bets.
The fact the bettor thought the underdog had the ability to shut down the favored team’s offense also implies he recognized the value in more markets.
In other words, he was getting a great price on both of them.
The multiplier effect makes this a potential home run of a bet, getting an amazing payout.
Sportsbooks know these numbers better than most. As a result, they will never let correlated odds play.
They do not want to be vulnerable to the chance that a keen bettor could bet a small amount and reap a huge payout by linking outcomes.
For bettors, it’s a pain in the backside, but sportsbooks won’t take their chances.
Why Do Sportsbooks Offer NFL Same Game Parlays?
The logical explanation is that they are a fascinating gimmick.
This doesn’t mean they can’t work for you, but like all things, if the bookmakers are offering it, then they must believe they have somewhat of an edge.
The edge created by the sportsbook is by making a change of the odds. This allows them to take a higher margin on each leg of the parlay.
This effectively reduces the multiplier’s effect and repairs the fact of these bets being correlated.
Say we have an early-season NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars.
For the sake of the example, the point spread is set at an incredibly high 22.5 in favor of the Rams.
This is due to the complete lack of confidence in the Jaguars’ roster.
The same game parlay bet is submitted as follows:
- Point Spread: 22.5
- Rams -110
- Jaguars -110
- Points total: 46.5
- Over -108
- Under -112
- 4th Quarter Points: 12.5
- Over +100
- Under -128
Now, say the wager submitted is like this:
- Rams -22.5
- Total points over 46.5
- 4th quarter points over 12.5
The odds of a not-correlated parlay are +633.
This actual same game parlay will have the adjustment made by the sportsbook, so the odds would be +271.
Not as big of a payout, but still a juicy number.
If these three outcomes happened in different games, there is no way one affects the result of the other. Therefore, the bigger value at +633.
Due to the fact that the same game parlays are correlated outcomes, the odds offered are one of +271.
Obviously, for the Rams to cover such a big spread, they have to score a bucket load of points.
Hence, giving a better chance for the over bet to cover as well.
By extension, there is a great possibility that the final quarter will have some garbage time points.
This would mean the 4th quarter over also gets its likelihood boosted.
At +271, the odds are a mile away from the +633. I
f you consider that by betting the point spread you will already get close to double your money, as a bettor, you know you are getting a deal with extra risk.
Even worse, one that doesn’t translate into massive rewards.
In fact, if the correlation was not considered, by combining the point spread and the 4th quarter over bet, that would result in a +280 juice.
It’s hard to believe, but it’s true, that is a better payout than the three-leg, same game parlay combined odds.
Now you see why sportsbooks low-key love the same game parlay. They will not tell you they do, but backstage, they love it.
Why Bet A Same Game NFL Parlay?
Now that you know the sportsbook has an edge over you in the same game parlay, the question is: Why, oh, why would you bet on the same game parlay?
Well first off, it is a good question, thanks for asking. All things being equal, it’s not the best idea to bet one, ever.
However, there are a few reasons and opportunities that might make them worth betting. Let’s hop into those.
They Are Fun, No Doubt About It
This is undisputed. Having action on a game adds to the spice and entertainment it would otherwise lack.
If you are willing to bet a small stake for fun and get some bucks while doing so, the same game parlays are tailored for you.
Picture this. It’s mid-winter, and you invite some of your friends to watch the Sunday Night Football game.
You crack up a few beers, have a good time, but you also wage the same game parlay.
This includes a combination of moneyline, spread, totals, and why not, a player prop. If you manage to bank it in, you are your buddies’ superhero.
You get even more beers, more money, and a way better time.
It just makes everything feel funnier, bigger, better.
You Can Maximize Your Bonus Bet
If you have been able to claim a bonus bet on your online sportsbook, then throwing that free bet onto the same game parlay could actually pay dividends.
Say you are going to watch the game live or spend your afternoon watching TV.
Then, sparing your hard-earned money and making the most of your free bet is the way to go. It’s a no-lose situation.
You can make money, and even if you don’t, you’re not losing your own bucks. You will be giving back what they gifted you.
No harm, no foul, right?
We are going to be clear on something. If they are deposit bonuses, invest somewhere else.
Free bets are usually not that large of amounts and only pay the profit from the bet and not the stake.
This means you are smart on looking for bigger odds to try to land a decent payout.
The deposit bonuses are bigger, and you should be looking to use them in safer bets to boost your bankroll.
The same game parlay is a great way to exploit that multiplier. Spice up the experience and hopefully land yourself some money in the process.
Take Advantage Of Bonuses And Promos
The fact that the same game parlay is heavily inclined to help the sportsbook means they love bettors daring to wager on them.
To encourage action on them, books will offer quite tempting promotions from time to time.
For instance, these may come as a form of insurance as either real cashback or free bets for missing one leg of the parlay.
There are lots of varied promotions linked to the same game parlays. Be sure to maximize them.
The United States is yet to use the same game parlay in any massive way.
This will change soon enough. This form of betting is coming to the US market as it gains popularity elsewhere.
Wait for those huge bonuses tied to the same game parlays.
Do yourself a favor and make sure you transform them into cash flow. Skew the odds back in your direction a little bit.
The study which games are optimal for you to play. Make them rue the day when they gave you a bonus.
NFL Same Game Parlays
The same game parlay is kind of new to the boundaries within the United States.
This does not mean it’s new elsewhere. Like most sports betting innovations, the same game parlay became big and popular at offshore sportsbooks.
They don’t provide bettors with exceptional value. But, if you have a sense of EV and a strong, proven betting intuition, you might find a way to dig out some profit from this betting type.
You heard it here first, same game parlays will explode in the near future.
Be prepared to get your skills going, read NFL parlay betting strategies, so you exploit the sportsbooks as soon as they promote them. Make the big bucks!
Always Shop Around
Shopping around for your Best Odds is the single greatest advantage a sports bettor has over the sportsbooks.
For traditional bets, this is usually a relatively straightforward exercise.
Odds are always posted at each online sportsbook, so a bettor can understand who offers the Best Odds by checking multiple sites.
However, when it comes to SGP pricing, each sportsbook has its own algorithm and pricing model.
The pricing model doesn’t go into effect until you have chosen multiple bets to partner together.
The final odds you will receive won’t be determined until all your bets have been added and the algorithm can understand the correlation between your selections.
This makes comparing odds for SGPs at each sportsbook a little bit more labor intensive because you will have to pre-build your parlay to see what your final odds will be.
Although extra labor is involved in finding out this information, it is very much in the best interest of the bettor to go through this exercise with each operator and only bet where they can find their Best Odds.