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Malcolm loves to watch all kinds of different sports. He also writes about them.

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BestOdds’ Newsletter – December 8th

Saturday is the very last college football game before it is officially BOWL SEASON.

I am not generally glued to the annual Army vs. Navy match-up, but this weekend will be different.

As the graphic above clearly states, 16 consecutive times these two teams have played each other, and 16 consecutive times the final score has gone under the total.

For perspective:

  • The probability of flipping a coin and having it land heads 16 times in a row is 1 in 80,000.
  • The probability of bowling a perfect game for a casual bowler is 1 in 12,000.

Hands up if you have ever achieved perfection at the bowling alley.

The point we are trying to make is that the opportunity to watch teams on a 16-game under streak doesn’t present itself very often.

2022 Army vs. Navy Over/Under

Sportsbooks opened the O/U for this year’s game at +34.5.

Once we were reminded that Army vs. Navy has gone under 16 consecutive times, the total quickly dropped from +34.5 to +32.

Last year the O/U opened at +41.5, was bet down to +35.5, and still, the under cruised.

In their last two meetings, there has been a total of 45 points combined, including just 15 total points in 2020.

It will be interesting to see how low this year’s total will drop.

+32 is already a pretty rare number in CFB totals betting.

Weather Forecast

The weather for this Saturday in Philadelphia, PA, doesn’t appear to be an issue.

Above-freezing temperatures with no snow in the forecast.

Even a 10 MPH wind won’t affect either team’s passing game, mainly because neither team actually has a passing game.

  • Last year, these teams combined to run the ball 88 times and threw the ball only 20 times.
  • The Navy finished the game with six pass attempts.

Maybe (but probably not) these balmy weather conditions will inspire a few more forward passes.

And The Winner Is…

As many of you will remember, I have a curmudgeon of a boss who will not allow me to provide free picks with our analysis each week.

Instead of giving you my Army vs. Navy O/U tip and risking the wrath of Iron Fist, I will instead share with you one of my personal betting rules I always like to follow.

“When the total is set lower than the temperature at kickoff for a mid-December game in Philadelphia, always play the over. “

Hopefully, the weather holds, and that +32 O/U continues to fall.

Always Shop Around

Last week, the Cincinnati Bengals upset the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24, snapping the Chiefs’ five-game winning streak.

With that KC loss, the Buffalo Bills once again became the consensus team to beat in the AFC.

If you are into futures betting, the graphic above is what the current AFC landscape looks like.

As a bettor, we have different options and strategies for how to play the board.

It always helps to understand what other scenarios payout, even if you aren’t going to bet it.

Strategy A – Bet The Favorite

At +185, the odds suggest the Bills have about a 35% chance to represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl.

A $25 wager would return $46.25 in profit.

Bet $25 on Buffalo Bills +185

Strategy B – Bet #2 And #4

If our numbers don’t love the Bills at +185, then we have lots of options left on the board.

  • At +250, the odds suggest the Chiefs are just under 30% likely to be crowned AFC Champion.
  • At +1000, the Dolphins are given about a 12.5% chance to win the AFC.

A $20 wager on KC would return $50.00 in profit. After subtracting the $5 bet on Miami, your final profit is $45.00.

A $5 wager on Miami would return $50 in profit. After subtracting the $20 bet on KC, your final profit is $30.00.

In this scenario, if KC wins, we get virtually the same return as betting $25 on Buffalo, plus we have another opportunity to cash a ticket if Miami is crowned AFC Champ.

Bet $20 on KC and $5 on Miami

As a bettor, we always have options and strategies to look at and it doesn’t mean we have to bet more units when we are betting on more teams.

Take the time to do the math and understand different scenarios before you lock in your futures bet.

Best of luck with all your upcoming picks and parlays this weekend!

Malcolm

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