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The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors are a combined 66-21 this year, good for a .760 winning percentage. Against the spread, those teams are a respectable 49-36-2, which is a profitable 58% cover rate.
As an alternative to betting on the two best teams in the NBA, may we present to you a different NBA betting strategy:
Our above tables show that the Cleveland Cavaliers as of Wednesday night have covered the spread a ridiculous 69% of the time. Their total profit for a $100 per game bettor is $561.27 so far this season.
Meanwhile, if you had bet on the Warriors and Suns exclusively, you would have $726.36 in profit. However, a bettor would have had to risk an additional $4300 in order to earn that extra $165 profit.
Not only is Cleveland paying out ATS , but they have already paid out for savvy gamblers who jumped on their 26.5 win total for the entire season.
It took Cleveland just 45 games to eclipse their projected 26.5 total, proving that oddsmakers are really good at their job, but we all have room for improvement.
With a 14-2 record, the Gonzaga Bulldogs already have one more loss this year than they did all of last season.
Still, Gonzaga is currently the #1 ranked team in the country and recently they have been doing it with some truly historic offensive firepower.
In their last three starts, the ‘Zags have scored 115, 110 and 117 points against conference rivals Santa Clara, BYU and Pepperdine. Since 1997, no other team has had such an explosive start offensively to their conference schedule.
So what gives?
The Bulldogs are clearly making an effort to push the tempo and pace of play. In two of their last three games, Gonzaga has had over 90 offensive possessions.
To put that into context, only one time in the previous 19 years did Gonzaga manage to get at least 85 possessions in a game and now they have surpassed 90+ possessions twice in the last 15 days.
Pushing the tempo is one thing, but getting the ball into the basket is another. Turns out the ‘Zags aren’t just fast, but they are also gifted shooters as well.
(Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is a way to measure your overall success as a team at shooting the ball. It is deemed a more accurate stat than traditional field goal percentage because it gives extra weight to 3-point attempts.)
The table above shows Gonzaga leads the country in eFG% this year and over their last three games they are leading the NCAA in offensive possessions per game.
When you combine those two stats, it’s easy to understand why they have gone OVER the total in three consecutive games and in four of their last five.
If the Bulldogs are going to average 90 possessions per game moving forward, you might want to set them to AUTO-BET and take the OVER until the oddsmakers catch up.
Our PGA tour stop this week is the American Express.
Above our table shows the last five winners of this event and their opening odds were. Last year, 60/1 Si Woo Kim claimed victory with a -23 winning score.
Another interesting fact we can see is that four of the last five winners have come from outside the final group on Sunday.
Just like last week when we saw Hideki Matsuyama shoot a final round 63 and erase a 5-stroke deficit, this tournament will allow golfers to make up ground on Sunday.
Poor Russell Henley stood on the 10th tee in the final round of the Sony Open with a 5-stroke lead and with live betting odds suggesting he had a 97% chance to close out the tournament.
Spoiler alert. He didn’t.
Instead, Henley, clearly impacted by nerves, watched his playing partner Matsuyama hoist the winners trophy when it was all said and done.
For those who think that Henley has the talent and mental toughness to overcome his monumental collapse from just over four days ago, then maybe the above bet slip isn’t for you.
For the rest of us who watched it unfold live, Chris Kirk at plus-money might seem like a gift from the golf gambling gods.
Best of luck with all your picks and parlays this weekend and best of luck with your Sony Open demons, Mr. Henley.
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