NFL Week 11 Parlay
Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Nov 15, 2023
It’s hard to believe that Week 11 is already here!
The Week 10 Parlay just missed, with the over 38 point total failing to hit in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Tennessee Titans’ matchup.
The Buccaneers decided to play defense for the first time in 2023, allowing a season-low six points to the Titans.
I was really hoping that Will Levis would play more like he did in his debut, when he threw for four touchdown passes.
Levis didn’t throw even a single touchdown, and he hasn’t thrown one now for two weeks.
Will the real Will Levis please stand up?
Anyway, for the Week 11 parlay, the parlay construction remains the same: an underdog moneyline, two spreads, one over, and one under.
This parlay will be built on Caesars.
Moneyline – New York Jets (+260) at Buffalo Bills
Back in Week 1, the New York Jets defeated the Buffalo Bills in overtime, 22-16.
In Week 11, I think the Jets can do it again.
Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen continues to turn the ball over with amazing regularity, throwing for 11 interceptions and losing three fumbles; that’s 14 turnovers in the first 10 games.
With Zach Wilson on the other sideline, there are likely to be some turnovers for New York as well, but as long as Allen continues to be a turnover charity, it’s hard to back Buffalo.
The Jets currently boast the NFL’s third-best passing defense right now, allowing a tidy average of 169.3 passing yards per game.
New York’s rushing defense has not been nearly as good, allowing 138.4 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL), so the Bills may turn to their running game.
Remember what happened when Buffalo turned to their running game last week, making running back James Cook a focal point of the offense?
That was James Cook's 2nd fumble on 241 career touches.
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 14, 2023
Leonard Fournette has 2 fumbles on 1,140 touches since 2018.pic.twitter.com/alhl3i8uHZ
And this!
NOOO JOSH ALLEN AND JAMES COOK FUMBLE THE HANDOFF
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 14, 2023
FOURTH TURNOVERpic.twitter.com/YKk3a7VHOZ
And luckily for Cook, THIS!
James Cook: Best Fumble Ever? pic.twitter.com/aozLj7y2Kp
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) November 14, 2023
If the Jets win, they’ll be 5-5, if the Bills lose, they’ll be 5-6.
New York can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win in Week 11, and I think they do.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+260)
Spread – Washington Commanders (-9.5 | -110) vs. New York Giants
The New York Giants are awful, and I’m going to keep attacking any spread against them that seems reasonable.
The spread for the Commanders fits that reasonable logic.
The Giants have lost 8 of their first ten games, and they are an unsightly 2-7-1 against the spread.
Here’s how the Giants have fared when set as underdogs of 9.5 or more points on the spread:
| Opponent | Giants’ Spread | Final Score | NYG Cover? |
| Week 3: San Francisco | +10.5 | 30-12 (L) | No |
| Week 5: Miami | +13 | 31-16 (L) | No |
| Week 6: Buffalo | +15.5 | 14-9 (L) | Yes |
| Week 10: Dallas | +17.5 | 49-17 (L) | No |
New York did cover their +15.5-point spread against the Bills, and that says just as much about the Bills as it does the Giants.
Like I said earlier, the Jets can beat Buffalo this week.
For the Commanders, this will be their largest spread as favorites this season, with their previous high being six-point favorites against the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football in Week 5.
Washington lost that Thursday Night game 40-20, but that game looks more like a whoopsy-daisy outlier, than a sign of things to come for the Commanders.
Justin Fields threw four touchdown passes against Washington in that game.
If Tommy DeVito throws four touchdowns against the Commanders this week, I’ll eat my hat.
Pick: Commanders (-9.5)
Spread – Pittsburgh Steelers (+1 | -110) vs. Cleveland Browns
As soon as I heard the news that Cleveland Browns’ quarterback Deshaun Watson was out for the year with shoulder surgery, I looked at the odds of this game.
On Monday, the Browns were four-point favorites, and now, just one point favorites.
Although Cleveland may have the best defense in the NFL right now, that offense is getting weirder by the day.
I’m not sure who the Browns’ starting quarterback will be moving forward.
Maybe P.J. Walker? Probably not.
Maybe Dorian Thompson-Robinson? Thompson-Robinson has been named the starter for at least Week 11.
It really makes you wonder how the Browns could have traded Joshua Dobbs before the season started?
The Cleveland Browns always find a way to become the Cleveland Browns.
Pittsburgh has won four of their last five games, and they always seem to find a way to win.
Sometimes, it’s an uncharacteristic deep ball, like their Pickett-to-Pickens connection for the win against the Ravens.
¡DEEP PICKENS TD!#Ravens 10-14 #Ravens pic.twitter.com/FPj9QQHNrw
— NFL NEWS 🏈 (@CrazyNFL_) October 8, 2023
Other times it’s a game-sealing interception on the final drive, like the Steelers’ win over the Green Bay Packers last week.
I’m not in love with this Pittsburgh defense, but something about this Browns’ offense makes me feel that Cleveland should be the underdogs here.
“Dorian Thompson-Robinson hands the ball off to Pierre Strong” . . .
That scenario could be a reality in Week 11.
Pick: Steelers (+1)
Over – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers (o41.5 | -110)
The San Francisco 49ers put on a nice 34-point offensive display against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.
Brock Purdy was back to form, throwing for 296 yards and three touchdowns, Christian McCaffrey ran for 95 yards and caught six passes for another 47 yards, Brandon Aiyuk snagged three passes for 55 yards and a touchdown, and tight end George Kittle hauled in three passes for 116 yards and a touchdown.
With all of this offensive talent in San Francisco, I can see a similar number being posted by the 49ers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11.
The chart below, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE, shows how San Francisco’s offense compares to the Buccaneers’ defense.
Tampa Bay has been absolutely awful at slowing down opposing QBs, so it looks like Purdy will do the dirty once again.
The Bucs’ offense has been solid at times, with Baker Mayfield doing an admirable job, attempting to fill the shoes of Tom Brady.
Mayfield is averaging 238.1 passing yards per game, and has tossed 14 touchdowns in nine games, helping Tampa Bay’s offense to 19.8 points per game.
Considering that the 49ers can probably put up nearly 30 points, we may only need two touchdowns here from the Bucs; or even less.
I’ll say the final score will be 34-13, 49ers.
Pick: Over 41.5
Under – Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers (u42 | -110)
The Dallas Cowboys obliterated the New York Giants last week, 49-17.
Five of the Cowboys’ six wins this season have been by 20 or more points, with Dallas scoring at least 30 in each of those five wins. They could do it again this week against the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina, as poorly as they have played this season, has only allowed an opponent to record 30 or more points three times in nine games.
Trying to find a silver lining in a 1-8 season for the Panthers.
In recent weeks, the Cowboys’ scoring output appears to be swinging back-and-forth like a pendulum.
| Dallas’ Opponents | Cowboys’ Point Totals |
| Week 1: New York Giants | 40 |
| Week 2: New York Jets | 30 |
| Week 3: Arizona Cardinals | 16 |
| Week 4: New England Patriots | 38 |
| Week 5: San Francisco 49ers | 10 |
| Week 6: Los Angeles Chargers | 20 |
| Week 8: Los Angeles Rams | 43 |
| Week 9: Philadelphia Eagles | 23 |
| Week 10: New York Giants | 49 |
This week, Dallas’ scoring output may swing back to a lower number.
This trend from BestOdds EDGE tells me that the Cowboys don’t really need to embarrass the Panthers in Week 11.
28 points may be all Dallas needs here, not 49, like last week’s drubbing of their NFC East rival New York Giants.
I’ll say the final score will be 28-10, Cowboys.
| NFL Week 10 Parlay Legs – Caesars | Odds |
| New York Jets (ML) vs. Buffalo | +260 |
| Washington (-9.5) vs. New York (N) | -110 |
| Pittsburgh (+1) vs. Cleveland | -110 |
| OVER 41.5 (TB vs. SF) | -110 |
| UNDER 42 (DAL vs. CAR) | -110 |
| Parlay Odds | +4682 |
A $10 wager on this Week 11 Parlay would pay out $478.20!
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Week 11 Odds analysis worth checking out.
