NFL Parlay Picks Week 11 2024

Author

Lawrence Smelser

Updated: Nov 18, 2024

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Week 11 opened up with the Eagles defeating the Commanders 26-18 on Thursday Night Football.

Philadelphia (8-2) now has a firm grip on the top spot in the NFC East standings ahead of Washington (7-4).

There will be plenty of wagering opportunities this Sunday, with 13 games on the schedule.

We’ll provide a player props parlay below featuring two running backs: The Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker III and the Rams’ Kyren Williams.

Remember to bet responsibly and carefully keep an eye on your bankroll.

Check out our week 11 NFL odds and props in our dedicated articles as well.

Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.

Week 11 Player Props Parlay

Kenneth Walker 50+ rush/rec yds and Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-131 at FanDuel)

Kenneth Walker’s Outlook at SF (50+ rush/receiving yards)

The Seahawks’ RB1 served as a bell cow last year, but in 2024 he’s become the offense’s “Swiss army knife” thanks to his impressive and improved receiving ability.

Walker has eclipsed 50 combined rushing and receiving yards in 6/7 (85.71%) contests this season.

He’s averaging 87.85 rush and receiving yards per game. The last time he faced the 49ers, he tallied 69 in total (14 carries for 32 yards and eight catches for 37 receiving yards).

The opportunities are there for the Michigan State product every week thanks to touching the football on 45.6% of snaps, receiving a total of 18.4 touches per contest and being targeted on 23.3% of routes.

His individual performance has also been superb, thanks to a 26.3 broken tackle percentage, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

He also owns a positive run rate of 79.8% and an 88.2% catch rate with zero drops.

The 49ers have surrendered 50 or more rushing and receiving yards to 11 opposing running backs in 10 games.

Last week, two Bucs’ running backs, Bucky Irving (87 rush/rec yards) and Rachaad White (70 rush/rec yards), comfortably passed the mark.

San Francisco allows an average of 121.11 rushing and receiving yards to opponents’ tailbacks this campaign.

This leg of the parlay is -470 on FanDuel and offers a ton of value compared to other bookmakers such as Caesars (-1100), bet365 (-700) and DraftKings (-600).

Walker’s standard rush and receiving yards total on most bookmakers is 82.5 yards.

Many top betting and fantasy football models also predict Walker will have a productive day both on the ground and through the air against New England.

Model Projections for Walker’s Rush/Rec Yards

  • Numberfire: 85
  • FantasyPros: 86.7
  • Action Network: 90
  • BettingPros: 78.9
  • RotoWire: 88.8
  • ESPN: 81

Kyren Williams’ Outlook at NE (Anytime TD)

Williams began the season on a tear and scored at least one touchdown in each of the first seven games.

Throughout that span, he recorded 10 total touchdowns (eight rushing and two receiving), which means he’s averaging 1.1 touchdowns per game.

The Notre Dame product has found the end zone in 7/9 (77.77%) contests. His hot streak ended the last two weeks when he failed to break the plane.

Last week, it seemed he’d be back on track, but quarterback Matthew Stafford missed him wide-open inside the five-yard line.

While it might appear as if the return of talented second-year wideout Puka Nacua has hindered Williams’ scoring opportunities, it actually helps open up the running lanes, with former triple-crown winner Cooper Kupp also creating space.

As showcased below, the 24-year-old Williams leads all running backs in red zone touches.

Williams’ Red Zone Rush Attempts/NFL Rank

  • Inside 20-yard line: 43 attempts (1st)
  • Inside 15-yard line: 33 attempts (1st)
  • Inside 10-yard line: 21 attempts (2nd)
  • Inside 5-yard line: 13 attempts (1st)

Williams has 43 rush attempts and six catches (third-most) in the red zone, an average of 5.44 per game.

He’s receiving the bulk of the work for his offense inside the red area.

According to RotoWire’s data, he owns a 53.1 TM%, his team’s combined red zone touches and touchdown conversion percentage.

This is an improvement compared to last year’s 41.5%, which is still a dominating workload.

This week, he faces a mouthwatering matchup against the Patriots, whose defense has surrendered 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs (1.1 per game average).

An opposing running back has broken the plane against New England in 8/10 contests.

The Rams are five-point favorites, so if they can maintain a lead, a game script consisting of increased rushing opportunities for their three-down back will be promoted.

Model Projections for Williams’ TDs at NE

  • Numberfire: 0.96
  • FantasyPros: 0.90
  • Action Network: 0.90
  • BettingPros: 0.90
  • RotoWire: 0.75
  • ESPN: 0.60
Author

About the author

Lawrence is a seasoned sports analyst with a combined decade of experience in the journalism, sports betting and iGaming industries. His expertise lie...

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