NFL Week 10 Parlay

We are now officially past the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season!

The Week 9 Parlay just narrowly missed, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers falling to the Houston Texans in the final six seconds on C.J. Stroud’s fifth touchdown pass of the game.

Sometimes, bets get busted due to wild magic. It’s just the nature of the beast.

As per usual, the formula for the parlay remains the same: an underdog moneyline, two spreads, one over, and one under.

This parlay will be built on DraftKings.

Moneyline – Cleveland Browns (+200) at Baltimore Ravens

The Cleveland Browns just shutout the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9, winning 27-0, and in the process, the Browns’ defense held the Cardinals to just 58 total yards of offense.

It was Cleveland’s first shutout win since 2007.

Yeah, the Browns’ defense shut down Arizona’s rookie quarterback Clayton Tune, who was making his first NFL start, but it was still an impressive display of defense.

The Browns defense allowed 59 net yards on 48 plays in Week 9, recording the highest defensive success rate (87.5%) in a game in the NGS era.

The Browns have recorded a 69.4% defensive success rate this season, the only defense over 64% since 2016.#AZvsCLE | #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/kmNVsqGCIa

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 5, 2023

This week will not be nearly as easy, with Cleveland’s defense squaring up with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.

The last time these two teams met back in Week 4, the Browns got crushed, losing 28-3.

That game saw Cleveland quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson make his first career NFL start, and I guess you could say his performance was Clayton Tune-like.

Week 10 should see the Browns start Deshaun Watson, and his presence alone should give the Cleveland offense a puncher’s chance this week.

Baltimore has just two losses this season, but both are head scratchers.

The Ravens lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 22-19, in overtime back in Week 3, and they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 17-10, in Week 5.

Baltimore has dropped two surprise games this season, and playing against arguably the NFL’s best defense, a loss to Cleveland wouldn’t be a big surprise.

Pick: Browns Moneyline (+200)

Spread – Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 | -115) vs. Green Bay Packers

It’s a Super Bowl XLV rematch!

Sort of.

It’s not Ben Roethlisberger vs. Aaron Rodgers, it’s Kenny Pickett vs. Jordan Love.

Not nearly as exciting.

What is exciting is the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. It’s slowly, but surely, beginning to take shape.

Through eight games, the Steelers’ defense has not produced great results, but it has become a tale of two seasons so far.

Here’s a look at Pittsburgh’s defense in the first four games:

Opponent	Total Yards Allowed	Points Allowed
Week 1 vs. San Francisco	391 Yards	30
Week 2 vs. Cleveland	408 Yards	22
Week 3 vs. Las Vegas	362 Yards	18
Week 4 vs. Houston	451 Yards	30
Opponent Averages	403 Yards/Game	25 Points/Game

Now, here’s a look at Pittsburgh’s defense over the last four games:

Opponent	Total Yards Allowed	Points Allowed
Week 5 vs. Baltimore	335 Yards	10
Week 7 vs. Los Angeles (N)	354 Yards	17
Week 8 vs. Jacksonville	377 Yards	20
Week 9 vs. Tennessee	340 Yards	16
Opponent Averages	351.5 Yards/Game	15.75 Points/Game

While 51.5 less total yards of offense allowed per game may not seem like a large difference, the Steelers’ defense shaving almost 10 points per game on average is definitely a big difference.

Pittsburgh is beginning to round into form, at least on one side of the ball.

The Steelers just need to get that offense going, and against the Packers’ defense, they just might.

Pick: Steelers (-3)

Spread – Dallas Cowboys (-16 | -110) vs. New York Giants

Sometimes, a team just gets embarrassed.

Sometimes, a team embarrasses themselves.

This week, the New York Giants could do both.

After losing $40 Million quarterback Daniel Jones to a torn ACL, and regular backup QB Tyrod Taylor already being injured, Tommy DeVito is the current “starting” quarterback for the Giants.

In his limited sample of playing time, DeVito has completed just 17 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown and one interception.

DeVito was able to find some success against the Las Vegas Raiders last week, throwing his first career touchdown pass.

By the time DeVito threw his first touchdown in the fourth quarter, it was 27-0 Raiders. Las Vegas was just going through the motions until the clock hit zeroes.

Now DeVito is going to be chased around the yard by Micah Parsons.

This game is going to be one-sided, but it still may hold entertainment for those that like watching the Giants lose.

As weird as New York’s offense is, their defense is also bad.

Dak Prescott is going to pick the Giants’ defense apart. 

After the Cowboys go up by 30 points, Prescott will get some well deserved bench time in the fourth quarter after the Cowboys bench their starters early.

Pick: Cowboys (-16)

Over – Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (o38 | -112)

Both the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defenses are allowing over 20 points per game, and I expect both to score over 20 points in this one.

Another thing these two share, besides mediocre defenses, is that they are both coming off narrow losses; the Titans losing to Pittsburgh (20-16), and the Buccaneers losing to the Texans (39-37).

Tennessee’s offense is looking a little more explosive with Will Levis under center, instead of the dink-and-dunk stylings of Ryan Tannehill, and this should work just fine against Tampa Bay’s 31st-ranked passing defense, allowing 296.1 passing yards per game.

The Buccaneers’ passing offense under Baker Mayfield has been effective, with Mayfield rarely turning over the football, he should find some open targets against this beatable Tennessee passing defense.

Is Baker Mayfield one of the greatest QBs of all time? 😳#GoBucs | #NFL pic.twitter.com/MkF2cfsBBI

— FanDuel (@FanDuel) November 7, 2023

The Titans have allowed 243.3 passing yards per game (16th in NFL), but that number has been buoyed by pedestrian performances from Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke of the Falcons and Kenny Pickett of the Steelers in the last two games.

I’ll say the final score will be 28-27, Buccaneers.

Pick: Over 38 (-112)

Under – Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (u43.5 | -110)

This Week 10 matchup will be the fifth and final International game of the 2023 NFL schedule being played in Frankfurt, Germany.

Here’s a look at how the total has fared in the other four International contests:

International Game	Final Score	Total Points	Over/Under – DraftKings	Result
Falcons vs. Jaguars (London)	23-7	30	42.5	Under
Jaguars vs. Bills (London)	25-20	45	48.5	Under
Ravens vs. Titans (London)	24-16	40	42.5	Under
Dolphins vs. Chiefs (Frankfurt)	21-14	35	51.5	Under

Apparently, NFL defenses like to play in Europe.

Many of those contests featured talented offensive playmakers, such as Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs of the Bills, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce of the Chiefs, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill of the Dolphins, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews of the Ravens, Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne of the Jaguars, the list goes on.

Somehow, all of those games were unders.

With it being Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones, I’m taking another European under here.

I’ll say the final score will be 21-10, Colts.
Pick: Under 43.5

NFL Week 10 Parlay Legs – DraftKings	Odds
Cleveland (ML) vs. Baltimore	+200
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Green Bay	-115
Dallas (-16) vs. New York (N)	-110
OVER 38 (TEN vs. TB)	-112
UNDER 43.5 (IND vs. NE)	-110
Parlay Odds	+3769

A $10 wager on this Week 10 Parlay would pay out $386.93!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 10 odds analysis worth checking out.