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NFL Week 11 Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Nov 14, 2023

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In Week 10, eight of the fourteen underdogs covered the spread, and five underdogs won straight up.

That may have muddied the mental waters for some bettors out there.

It did for me.

Kyler Murray returned for the Arizona Cardinals and played well against the Atlanta Falcons, the Baltimore Ravens crumbled in the second half against the Cleveland Browns, and the Denver Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football to extend their winning streak to three games.

Many interesting things to consider as we move forward to Week 11.

Let’s take a look at the Week 11 slate and find teams that can cover the spread, find some overs or unders to take a shot at, and maybe sprinkle some action on an underdog or two, or three.

Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5, +167 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, -185 ML)

Total: Over 46 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 46 (-110 | FanDuel)

Both of these teams took tough losses last week, each losing on walk-off field goals.

The Ravens are going to scratch and claw to keep hold of the top spot in the AFC North, while the Bengals will be fighting to get out of the AFC North basement.

In a potentially close game, I always go with the quarterback that I believe can do well in a late two-minute drive, and for me, that man is Joe Burrow.

Burrow had four game-winning drives in 2022, and has yet to record one this season.

This Thursday Night Primetime matchup feels like the right time for Burrow to prove that the Bengals do not belong at the bottom of the AFC North.

Pick: Bengals Moneyline | Best Odds: (+167) bet365

Sunday, November 19th – 1:00 p.m. EST

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, -520 ML) vs. Carolina Panthers (+10.5, +460 ML)

Total: Over 46 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 46 (-110 | FanDuel)

As expected, the Dallas Cowboys dismantled the New York Giants last week, and this week, they have a similar opportunity against the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers lost to the Chicago Bears last week, and were only able to scrounge up 13 points. That’s three weeks in a row that Carolina has scored just 15 points or less.

The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in seven of their nine games, and the efficacy of these two offenses are night and day.

The spread has the Cowboys favored by 10.5 points, and I’m going to take that spread now before it gets any closer to two touchdowns.

Pick: Cowboys (-10.5) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4, +167 ML) vs. Cleveland Browns (-4, -192 ML)

Total: Over 36.5 (-108 | BetRivers), Under 36.5 (-110 | bet365)

This AFC North rivalry always produces a great game!

The biggest difference between the 6-3 Steelers and the 6-3 Browns is defense.

Here’s a quick look at Pittsburgh and Cleveland’s defenses:

2023 Defense (Thru Week 10)Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland Browns
Passing Defense266.8 Yards/Game (27th)173.2 Yards/Game (1st)
Rushing Defense131.2 Yards/Game (24th)91.6 Yards/Game (7th)
Scoring Defense20.2 Points Allowed/Game (11th)18.9 Points Allowed/Game (6th)

Although both Kenny Pickett and Deshaun Watson have had their ups and downs this season, I still trust Watson a little more at moving his offense downfield.

Unfortunately, for these offenses, I trust the defenses most.

Pick: Under 36.5 | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Chicago Bears (+10, +400 ML) vs. Detroit Lions (-10, -480 ML)

Total: Over 47 (-106 | BetRivers), Under 47 (-110 | Caesars)

The Detroit Lions have Super Bowl hopes this season, and they are playing pretty well, currently running away with the NFC North with a record of 7-2.

But, the Lions defense did look iffy against the Los Angeles Chargers in Detroit 41-38 win last week, and they shouldn’t take the Bears too lightly.

I like what I’ve seen from Tyson Bagent and the Chicago offense. Even though the Bears have been producing some low scores lately, they did a good job of avoiding turnovers last week in a win over Carolina.

In both of Bagent’s starts with zero turnovers, Chicago is 2-0.

Jared Goff and the Lions will most likely win this game, but if the Bears can avoid a cluster of turnovers, I like their chances of covering the spread.

Pick: Bears (+10) | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, -160 ML) vs. Green Bay Packers (+3, +140 ML)

Total: Over 43.5 (-115 | FanDuel), Under 44.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

The Green Bay Packers offense looked a little more effective against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

But, even in a game against a mediocre defense, and Jordan Love playing his best football in quite some time, the Packers still fell short.

I think Green Bay will fall short again at home in Week 11.

Los Angeles just missed on a huge win, losing to the Detroit Lions last week, but their offense looked really strong.

Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns, and the offense is now averaging 26.6 points per game (7th-best in the NFL).

It appears that the offense under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is slowly, but surely, beginning to click for Los Angeles.

Pick: Chargers (-3) | Best Odds: (-110) BetRivers

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, +170 ML) vs. Houston Texans (-4, -192 ML)

Total: Over 47.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 47.5 (-108 | BetRivers)

Kyler Murray’s return led to an instant win for the Cardinals.

Arizona scored 25 points in a win over the Falcons last week, the most they’ve scored as a team since their surprise Week 3 win over Dallas.

The Cardinals will visit the Houston Texans this week, and Arizona will have their hands full trying to slow down the red hot C.J. Stroud.

Stroud has thrown for over 350 yards in each of the last two games, and has scored seven total touchdowns (six passing, one rushing).

The return of Murray is nice for Arizona, but Stroud is playing better right now, and the Texans currently have a more well-rounded team.

I think Murray can move the needle for this Cardinals offense just enough to hang around.

Pick: Cardinals (+4.5) | Best Odds: (-115) FanDuel

Tennessee Titans (+6.5, +240 ML) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, -270 ML)

Total: Over 39.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 40.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

I was expecting some Will Levis magic from the Tennessee Titans last week, but I didn’t get it.

It may have just been delayed by a week.

Levis and the Titans will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Jags currently sport the NFL’s 29th-ranked passing defense, allowing 277.9 passing yards per game.

Jacksonville allowed 296 yards and three touchdowns to Brock Purdy of the 49ers last week in a 34-3 loss, so I’d expect Levis to follow a similar blueprint.

Mike Vrabel has given the starting nod to Levis moving forward, believing that Levis can give the Titans the best chance to win.

I stand by that decision, too.

Pick: Titans Moneyline | Best Odds: (+240) BetMGM

Las Vegas Raiders (+11.5, +500 ML) vs. Miami Dolphins (-11.5, -650 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 46.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

Since turning the reins over to Antonio Pierce, the Las Vegas Raiders are 2-0!

Impressive!

They’ve defeated the New York Giants and New York Jets!

Oh, nevermind.

The Miami Dolphins will bring the high-flying Raiders back down to earth this week.

The Dolphins are a solid 6-3 this season against the spread, and they’re 4-0 against the spread at home, and Miami is 3-0 ATS when they’ve been favored by 10 or more points.

Things have been going too well for Las Vegas.

It’s time to jump off the wagon before it crashes.

Pick: Dolphins (-11.5) | Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

New York Giants (+10, +385 ML) vs. Washington Commanders (-10, -440 ML)

Total: Over 36.5 (-115 | FanDuel), Under 37.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

There is no team in the NFL whose season feels more done than the New York Giants.

Even though the Giants got trounced by Dallas in Week 10, Tommy DeVito still managed to throw for two touchdowns.

That’s something, right?

The Commanders’ offense has been strong this season under coordinator Eric Bienemy (the former Kansas City Chiefs OC), as Washington is averaging a respectable 21.7 points per game.

And guess who leads the NFL in passing yards?

Give up?

It’s Sam Howell, QB of the Commanders.

I don’t believe that Bienemy is turning Howell into the next Patrick Mahomes, but he’s certainly helping this offense move the ball downfield.

I’m backing Washington to score plenty of points, especially with Patrick Mahomes Sam Howell playing at such a high level.

The Commanders could push for the game total on their own.

Pick: Over 36.5 | Best Odds: (-115) FanDuel

November 19th – 4:05 p.m. EST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5, +490 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, -575 ML)

Total: Over 41.5 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 41.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The 49ers got back on track in Week 10, defeating the Jaguars 34-3, ending their three-game losing streak.

It was only a matter of time for San Francisco’s offense to get back to their high-scoring ways.

In the three-game losing streak, the 49ers scored exactly 17 points in each game, only to double that total against the Jags last week.

San Francisco is averaging 28 points per game, good for third in the NFL.

The Buccaneers ended a losing streak of their own in Week 10, beating the Titans 20-6, ending a four-game skid.

Baker Mayfield played well in the win, throwing for 278 yards and two touchdowns and only one interception, giving the veteran QB a nice 14:5 touchdown to interception ratio.

Some may view Mayfield as a “bridge QB”, just a stopgap for the next man, but I believe he can be a solid post-hype franchise QB for Tampa Bay.

The 49ers are just 5-4 ATS this season, and 2-3 ATS at home. I think Mayfield can keep the Bucs well within two touchdowns for the cover here.

Pick: Buccaneers (+11.5) | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

November 19th – 4:25 p.m. EST

New York Jets (+7, +270 ML) vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5, -298 ML)

Total: Over 40 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 40.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Buffalo Bills lost to the New York Jets in the opening week, losing 22-16 in overtime.

The Bills just lost to the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football, 22-24, and have now lost four of their last six games.

Buffalo is trending in the wrong direction, and on a short week against a stingy Jets defense, I don’t see this as a bounce back opportunity for the Bills.

Expecting Josh Allen to outproduce Zach Wilson, and Buffalo to walk away with an easy win here is ill advised.

Wilson was essentially the starter in the Jets’ Week 1 win over the Bills, stepping in after Aaron Rodgers stepped out after four snaps, proving he can pull out a win over this Buffalo team.

The New York win over the Bills also included Buffalo defensive studs Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White on the field, who will now both be absent in Week 11.

This season, Wilson has turned the ball over eight times (6 INTs, 2 lost fumbles).

Josh Allen has turned the ball over 14 times (11 INTs, 3 lost fumbles).

Just like Week 1, Allen could throw this game away to the Jets.

I’ll safely back New York on the spread.

Pick: Jets (+7) | Best Odds: (-108) BetRivers

Seattle Seahawks (-1, -105 ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1, -102 ML)

Total: Over 46 (-110 | Caesars), Under 46 (-108 | DraftKings)

This NFC West rivalry is a pick’em this week.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is questionable with a thumb injury, and the Rams have looked just plain weird with Brett Rypien under center.

As long as Stafford is questionable and there’s a chance that Rypien is quarterbacking this offense again, there’s now way I can back Los Angeles here.

The Seahawks have won three of their last four games, and a more trustworthy offense at the moment.

Both of these defenses have been mid this season, but Seattle’s offense has plenty of depth, Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and always someone coming out of nowhere to do some damage, like Jake Bobo.

Even if Stafford plays, I don’t feel great about backing him and the Rams.

Pick: Seahawks Moneyline | Best Odds: (-105) BetMGM

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5, +116 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (-2, -125 ML)

Total: Over 43 (-110 | bet365), Under 44 (-110 | DraftKings)

Joshua Dobbs has been a great addition to the Minnesota Vikings.

In his first game with the Vikes, Dobbs stepped in for an injured Jarren Hall at QB, and Dobbs completed 20-of-30 passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 66 yards and another touchdown, helping Minnesota to victory over the Falcons.

In his second game, Dobbs completed 23-of-34 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown and ran for 44 yards and another touchdown in a 27-19 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Not too long from now, I think we’ll be looking back at Dobbs’ acquisition and seeing this move as the one that single handedly got the Vikings into the postseason.

Although the Denver Broncos defeated the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football this week, I think Joshua Dobbs can continue his magic.

I find the Broncos’ three-game winning streak as a weird fluke. I can’t forget that Denver lost five of their first six games and allowed 70 points to the Dolphins.

The Vikings send the Broncos back to their stable.

Pick: Vikings Moneyline | Best Odds: (+116) BetRivers

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (+3, +130 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3, -148 ML)

Total: Over 45.5 (-112 | DraftKings), Under 46.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

A Super Bowl 57 rematch?

A Super Bowl 58 preview?

Either way, Monday Night Football will be another “Kelce Bowl”.

I’ll set the over/under on mentions of Taylor Swift by the broadcast team at 5.5.

The Philadelphia Eagles passing defense continues to struggle, as they have allowed Sam Howell and Dak Prescott to tally 774 passing yards and seven touchdown passes in the last two games.

Chances are that Patrick Mahomes can find some success against the Eagles’ defensive secondary, too.

The best game plan for Philly is to run the football often and grind down the clock. It’s what they do best, and I expect to see it again on Monday Night.

With Mahomes having an up-and-down season by his standards, and trying to find someone else to throw to other than Travis Kelce, I expect the Chiefs to struggle with putting points on the board against Philly’s defense.

I also expect the Eagles to run often in attempt to kill the clock and keep Mahomes off the field.

This game feels like a “primetime under”.

Pick: Under 46.5 | Best Odds: (-115) FanDuel

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