2022 NFL Week 11 Odds
Week 10 of the NFL provided us with plenty of entertainment. From the season’s first tie to four teams each putting over 40 points on the board. Let’s hope for more of the same in Week 11.
Last week’s parlay was again a bust. I was only right on half of my ten bets due to multiple upset games.
With NFL odds for Week 11 finding their range, let’s preview all 15 games.
This week’s parlay will again consist of five teams, while I shall be making other picks for the other games.
New England Patriots (-278) @ Atlanta Falcons (+240)
Patriots: New England managed a blow-out win over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Mac Jones played excellently. He squeezed passes through tight windows and finished with 198 yards and three TDs.
Damien Harris was injured, so Rhamondre Stevenson started at RB. Stevenson finished with exactly 100 yards and two TDs. Kendrick Bourne was Jones’ most productive receiver with 98 yards from just four catches.
The defense managed five sacks and held the Browns to just 154 passing yards. D’Ernest Johnson was able to run the ball effectively against the Pats’ defense.
Falcons: Atlanta was well and truly demolished by the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys won by 40 points and led the whole game. Matt Ryan had a shocking day. He finished with 117 yards and two interceptions.
The run game finished with 103 yards and managed 4.3 yards per carry. However, that wasn’t enough to sustain drives due to their inefficient passing game.
The defense looked lost. They conceded 317 passing yards and 114 rushing yards. These numbers would have been higher if it wasn’t for multiple errors such as a blocked punt and three total interceptions by the Falcons’ offense.
The Patriots are now 6-4 and are a win behind Buffalo in the AFC East. They have quietly gone about their business and snuck into a playoff spot. Atlanta held the seventh seed in the NFC before this game; now, they are ranked ninth. New England is the favorite for this game. I think Mac Jones leads his offense to a huge win.
I am taking the Pats to win and cover the spread of -5.5.
Indianapolis Colts (+270) @ Buffalo Bills (-315)
Colts: Indy beat the Jags at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts pulled through a nervous fourth quarter to win 23-17. Carson Wentz threw plenty of risky passes, including a left-handed completion to Jonathon Taylor.
Taylor had another huge day with 116 yards at an outstanding 5.5 yards per carry. Michael Pittman continues to prove his high draft pick with another 70+ yard day.
The defense looked shaky towards the end of the game. The D conceded 79 yards on just three carries from jet sweeps by Jamal Agnew. The secondary did produce some tight coverage, meaning Lawrence only completed 48% of his passes.
Bills: Buffalo produces a dominant win over the Jets. Josh Allen seemed only to throw the ball deep. He finished with 366 yards and two TDs from just 21 completions.
The run game went for 139 yards and four TDs at an average of 5.8 yards per carry. It was an outstanding offensive performance from the Bills. It marked the first time we have seen the Bills’ offense dominate since Week 5.
The defense was just as dominant as the offense. Mike White’s honeymoon period ended with four ugly interceptions. The Bills also produced a fumble turnover and only conceded three points in the first three quarters.
Indy is now 5-5 and on the fringe of the playoffs. A win over the Bills would massively help close the gap to the seventh seed. However, the Colts have a tough stretch to contend with, including Tampa Bay, the Pats and the Cardinals. The Bills are one win ahead of the Pats in the AFC East.
They won’t be feeling comfortable with Bill Belichick hunting them down. The Bills are heavy favorites for this game and I think the Bills will cover the spread of -6.5.
I am adding the Bills to my parlay as that’s the safe bet.
Baltimore Ravens (-245) @ Chicago Bears (+230)
Ravens: Baltimore had a shock loss to the Dolphins on Thursday night. Lamar Jackson and the offense had no answers for the Dolphins’ excellent man coverage and cover zero defense.
Lamar Jackson only completed 60% of his passes and he was sacked three times. The offense punted eight times and produced a fumble that was recovered for a TD by the Fins.
The defense held strong for most of the game. They only conceded 15 points to the Fins’ offense and limited the run game to under 3 yards per carry. However, the D made two costly mistakes which resulted in blown coverage both times.
Bears: Chicago is coming off its bye week. Last time out, they narrowly lost to the Steelers. This was a game they could and should have won. Twenty-one fourth-quarter points put the Bears within three of the Steelers, only to miss a last-second field goal.
Justin Fields found his feet and threw for 291 yards and rushed for another 45 yards. The run game finished with 136 yards at an average of 5.3 yards per carry.
The defense restricted the rampant Najee Harris to just 2.8 yards per carry. The front seven also produced four sacks and five tackles for a loss.
The Ravens will be looking to bounce back after a very uncharacteristic performance. The Bears will be hoping their bye week helps produce a winning stretch.
It will also give the Bears time to work on a similar game plan to the Fins’. I think the Ravens will win, but the Bears will cover the spread of +6.5.
My bet is on the teams hitting over 45 points.
Houston Texans (+400) @ Tennessee Titans (-450)
Texans: Houston is coming off its bye week. In Week 9, the Texans lost to the Dolphins. Tyrod Taylor returned from injury to produce a 240-yard day. However, he looked rusty and threw three interceptions.
Brandin Cooks was the Texans’ most productive receiver, as has regularly been the case this season. Yet, he finished with just 56 yards and the run game managed just 73 total yards rushing. However, this really didn’t surprise, as the Texans’ rushing attack has been disappointing all season.
The defense conceded 244 yards to QB2 Jacoby Brissett. However, the defense and special teams did produce five turnovers, including two picks.
Titans: Tennessee squeezed past the Saints at home. Ryan Tannehill was pretty faultless for most of the game. However, he couldn’t lead his offense down the field for a score to make the fourth quarter more comfortable.
The run game is clearly missing Derrick Henry. Even though Henry has missed the past two games, he still leads the NFL in rushing yards. His replacements only combined for 66 yards.
Trevor Siemian threw for 298 yards from just 19 completions. The Titans’ secondary looked very exposed and conceded plenty of deep shots by Siemian.
The Texans are still trying to find their identity under David Culley. I can’t see them turning this eight-game losing streak around anytime soon. The Titans are the number one see in the AFC, and they don’t look like giving that up anytime soon, even without Derrick Henry.
I think these teams will score under 45.5 points, with the Texans unlikely to put double-digits on the board.
I am betting on the Titans to win and cover the 10-point spread.
Green Bay Packers (-132) @ Minnesota Vikings (+122)
Packers: Green Bay shut out the Seahawks in a 17-0 win at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers produced an adequate performance. He threw for 292 yards with an INT and a 62% completion rate, but he did lead two late TD drives to secure the win.
The run game was surprisingly unproductive, with only 3.3 yards per carry. However, A.J. Dillon did chip in with a 128-yard day, including 62 receiving yards from just two catches.
The defense was outstanding. They shut out the Seahawks and produced two turnovers. The D also only allowed 236 total offensive yards, including just 161 yards to the returning Russell Wilson. He endured his first career shut-out
Vikings: Minnesota prevailed over the Chargers at MetLife stadium. Kirk Cousins produced another excellent performance. Cousins finished with 294 yards and two TDs.
Justin Jefferson had another stellar game with 143 yards from just nine receptions. Dalvin Cook was also productive, breaking the century mark, with 118 yards from 24 carries and three catches.
The defense could limit Justin Herbert’s downfield passing, meaning he ended with just 195 yards. Eric Kendricks managed the only interception of the day.
The Vikings are closing in on the seventh seed in the NFC. They are now 4-5 and have had a roller-coast of a season. Cousins and co can’t consistently produce this level of performance.
The Packers will be thankful to have Aaron Rodgers back under center after Jordan Love’s performance in Week 9. The Packers are favorites for this game, and I think they will cover the spread of -2.5.
I feel the Packers are a safe bet to win and am adding them to my parlay.
Miami Dolphins (-159) @ New York Jets (+145)
Dolphins: Miami emphatically beat the Ravens at Hard Rock stadium. The critical turning point in this game was when Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench to replace Brissett in the second half.
Tua was not fit enough to start. Despite his broken finger, he still managed 158 yards from just eight completion and a rushing TD. However, this game was undoubtedly won by the Fins’ defense.
The D managed three sacks, five tackles for a loss, 19 pressure, a game-ending pick, as well as a fumble recovery for a TD. They put up extortionate numbers against an MVP-favorite in Lamar Jackson, who had no answer for the Fins’ cover zero defense.
Jets: The Jets were blown away by the Bills on Sunday. Mike White went from hero to zero on Sunday. He threw for 251 yards with four interceptions. It looked like he was just throwing it downfield and hoping a receiver makes a play.
The run game was as unproductive as expected, with just 70 yards at an average of 3.1 yards per carry. Most of that unproductiveness is due to the mediocre offensive line conceding six tackles for a loss.
Josh Allen was excellent, with 366 yards from just 21 completions. He blew away the Jets’ secondary, who had no answers. The front seven was also blown away by the Bills’ rush game which went for 139 yards.
The Dolphins’ dominant defense from 2020 seems to have returned. In the past two games, they have totaled six turnovers and eight sacks. Zach Wilson could return against the Fins, but he hasn’t been consistent enough in his rookie season. This is a battle for last place in the AFC East.
The Fins are narrow favorites on the road. I think the Fins will win and cover the three-point spread in a low-scoring game.
However, I am betting these teams score under 45.5 points
New Orleans Saints (+110) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-118)
Saints: New Orleans narrowly lost to the Titans on Sunday. Trevor Siemian continued to start at QB, throwing for 298 yards and two TDs. He is proving as an excellent replacement for Jameis Winston.
The run game was productive, especially when Taysom Hill came into the game. Hill rushed for 23 yards from just three attempts. Third-year receiver Deonte Harris was excellent with 84 yards.
The ordinarily outstanding defense struggled against the Titans. The D only managed two sacks and no interceptions against an offense missing their most prominent player in Henry.
Eagles: The Eagles dominated the Broncos at Empower Field. The Eagles continue to run the ball effectively this season. The rush game totaled 214 yards at an outstanding average of 5.4 yards per carry.
The passing game was just as efficient with 178 yards. DeVonta Smith is showing why he carried home the Heisman Trophy last year. He finished with 66 yards from four receptions.
The defense held Teddy Bridgewater, who has been very accurate this season, to just a 61% completion rate. The Eagles also forced a fumble and had several pressures on Bridgewater.
The Saints’ defense will bounce back against the Eagles. Trevor Siemian is doing enough to win at QB. This game will be down to whether the Saints can stop Jalen Hurts and co. The oddsmakers have this as one of the closest games of the weekend.
I think these teams will hit over 43.5 points in an entertaining match-up of two teams hoping to sneak into the playoffs.
I am betting on the Saints and am adding them to my parlay.
Detroit Lions (+370) @ Cleveland Browns (-425)
Lions: The Lions won’t be the first-ever team to be 0-17. Detroit tied with the Steelers. However, Ryan Santoso missed a 48-yard field goal to win the game for Detroit in overtime.
The main reason the Lions almost won this game was due to their excellent rushing attack. The running backs totaled 229 yards at an average of 5.9 yards per carry.
The defense was solid against Mason Rudolph. The D didn’t manage a sack, but they picked off Rudolph and recovered two fumbles, both in overtime.
Browns: Cleveland was hammered by the Patriots on Sunday. New England harassed Baker Mayfield throughout. They managed five sacks and inevitably Mayfield injured his knee.
The offense was without Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb again. D’Ernest Johnson earned his money by going for 99 rushing yards and 58 receiving yards. The receiver room looked lost without Beckham.
The defense couldn’t stop Mac Jones, who was excellent. Jones threw three TDs and was ably backed up by the Pats’ run game. Rhamondre Stevenson trampled the Browns’ front seven on his way to a 100-yard day.
The Brown have now fallen to last in the AFC North. With Baker injured again, it looks like Cleveland could struggle to return to the playoffs due to a challenging final seven games.
The Lions will be looking to take advantage of this beat-up Browns team. I think the Browns will win this game, but the Lions will cover the ten-point spread in a game dominated by the defenses.
I am betting the under, currently at 44.5 points.
Washington Football Team (+155) @ Carolina Panthers (-170)
Football Team: Washington produced a massive upset over the Bucs on Sunday. WFT held the lead right from the start when they picked off Tom Brady twice.
The defense played exceptionally to hold off the Bucs’ explosive offense. Tom Brady only had 220 yards, the second-worst stat of his season. The early lead meant Brady had to push the ball, which resulted in plenty of incompletions.
The offense wasn’t too bad either. Taylor Heinicke seems to excel when he plays the Bucs. He finished with 256 yards and a TD. He also completed 81% of his passes.
Panthers: Cam Newton is back with a bang! He became the first player in history to rush for a TD and complete a TD pass on his first passing and rushing attempt of the season. This helped the Panthers rush to a 23-0 first half over the Cardinals, a lead they never looked like giving away.
Carolina looked fired up with the returning Newton. Christian McCaffrey stepped up his game and went for 95 yards at an average of 7.3 yards per carry. He also added 66 receiving yards to his stats.
The defense held Colt McCoy to just 107 yards before he left the game injured. They also produced two turnovers off McCoy. The Panthers limited James Conner to just 39 yards.
Carolina has found its form with the returning Newton. They could make a serious push for the seventh seed in the NFC. The Football Team is only two wins off the playoffs. If they win on the road, they can close the gap to the teams ahead of them. I think the Panthers will continue their resurgence and beat WFT.
Therefore, I am adding the Panthers to my parlay.
San Francisco 49ers (-275) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+235)
49ers: San Francisco produced an impressive performance to beat the Rams on Monday night. The rushing attack was excellent again, with Elijah Mitchell going for 91 yards.
The run game was well backed up by Jimmy Garoppolo and Deebo Samuel, who combined for 97 yards from just five connections. Jimmy G ended with 182 yards and two TD passes.
The early lead meant the 49ers’ only had to stop the Rams’ passing game. The secondary pick off Stafford twice. The front seven finished with 52 yards allowed, two sacks, and four tackles for a loss.
Jaguars: A late comeback by the Jaguars fell short in their loss to the Colts. Trevor Lawrence didn’t have a good game with just 162 yards. He only completed 46% of his passes.
The Jags had to rely on their rushing attack, who finished with 179 yards. Wide-out Jamal Agnew was productive on the jet sweep. He finished with 79 rushing yards from just three carries.
The defense couldn’t take advantage of several Carson Wentz’s risky passes. The front seven was run over by Jonathon Taylor and the Colts’ offensive line. However, this defense did improve in the second half, only conceding three points.
The 49ers showed up big time against the fearless Rams. They proved they could be a playoff-caliber team, but they aren’t consistent enough to be taken seriously. The Jags are still finding their way under Urban Meyer, but they are certainly producing better performance since their win in London.
I think the 49ers will win, but would not be surprised if the Jags will keep it a close game for much of the game.
I am adding the 49ers to my parlay.
Cincinnati Bengals (-110) @ Las Vegas Raiders (+100)
Bengals: The Bengals are coming off their bye week. The last time out, they were convincingly beaten by the Browns. Joe Burrow threw two picks in one of his worst performances of the season.
However, Burrow had no choice but to look for deep shots due to being down by 14 at the start of the second half. The Bengals’ offense fumbled four times, but they were lucky that the Browns recovered only one.
The defense didn’t have a good game with the returning Nick Chubb going for 137 yards from just 14 carries. That included a 70-yard TD run.
Raiders: The Raiders were beaten by the Chiefs during primetime on Sunday night. The Raiders just couldn’t control Patrick Mahomes, who seems to have found his mojo.
The Raiders’ defense conceded 406 yards to Mahomes, including five TD passes. The front seven couldn’t even muster a sack. The one consolation was they did have a fumble recovery.
Derek Carr and his offense totaled 311 total yards compared to 516 total yards by the Chiefs. The run game only had 50 yards, and Carr was the Raiders leading rusher with 18 yards.
Multiple off-field issues have overshadowed the Raiders season. However, the Raiders are still 5-4 and on the fringe of the playoffs. The Bengals have gone from first to last in their division in just three weeks.
But they are also on the edge of the playoffs with the same record as the Raiders. This game is too close to call. I feel that the Bengals will win after having time to reset.
So, I am betting the Bengals win and cover the one-point spread.
Dallas Cowboys (+125) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-134)
Cowboys: The Cowboys produced a remarkable display to sweep aside the Falcons. The defense was exceptional, with three interceptions and only conceding 234 yards to the Falcons.
The special teams unit even chipped in with a blocked punt which was recovered for a TD. Dak Prescott was excellent with 296 yards and three TDs.
Prescott’s favorite receiver was CeeDee Lamb, who finished with 94 yards and two TDs. The running game even chipped in with 114 yards and three rushing TDs.
Chiefs: It’s safe to say that the Chiefs are back! Patrick Mahomes led a dominant display to demolish the Raiders. Mahomes made a statement with a 406-yard, five-TD day.
Part of the reason for Mahomes’ stats is due to Travis Kelce being targeted more. Kelce finished with 119 yards. Darrel Williams also had a great day with 144 total yards.
The Chiefs’ defense limited Derek Carr to 261 yards and forced two turnovers. The D also held the Raiders’ run game to just 50 yards.
Both of these teams are coming into this game full of confidence after crushing their previous opponents. This will be an exciting match between two top four seeds in their respective divisions.
I feel that the Chiefs will win and cover the spread of -2.5 (for once!). Both teams put up over 40 points on the board in Week 10 and I expect the scoreboard to be busy at Arrowhead on Sunday.
Therefore, I am betting over 55.5 points will be scored.
Arizona Cardinals (-131) @ Seattle Seahawks (+120)
Cardinals: Arizona was comprehensively beaten by the Panthers. The game was out of the Cardinals’ control from the start when they fumbled on the opening drive.
Colt McCoy played for the injured Kyler Murray and only had 107 passing yards before leaving the game injured. The run game couldn’t carry the disappointing pass game.
The defense couldn’t stop the Panthers’ rampant run game. Carolina rushed for 166 yards. Christian McCaffrey finished with 95 rushing yards. The Cardinals didn’t even muster a sack.
Seahawks: Seattle was shut out by the Packers at Lambeau Field. On reflection, Russell Wilson probably shouldn’t have played as it looked like his broken finger hampered him.
Wilson finished with 161 yards and two interceptions. The run game should have been more utilized. The Seahawks rushed 16 times for 75 yards.
The defense could only manage one sack and two tackles for a loss. However, they only allowed three points to be scored in the first three quarters.
An extra week to heal should help Wilson be more comfortable throwing. We could see a much-improved offensive performance from the Seahawks. The Cardinals will be hoping Murray and Hopkins are fit enough to start this week. Both QBs are banged up, so a low-scoring game is likely.
I am betting the Cardinals to win and cover the spread of -2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+205) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-220)
Steelers: Pittsburgh produced a disappointing performance against the Lions. The game went to overtime, but two fumbles by the Steelers meant the game ended with a draw.
Mason Rudolph started at QB and finished with 242 yards, a TD, and an INT. He put in a performance that was good enough to win the game. However, the defense was the let-down.
The Steelers’ D usually is very reliable. But, in Week 10, they conceded 229 yards to an offense that wasn’t even averaging 100 yards a game. Detroit did have a chance to win, but Ryan Santoso shanked an overtime field goal.
Chargers: The Chargers lost at home to the Vikings. Justin Herbert was limited to just 195 yards, a TD, and an INT. Herbert was horribly inaccurate with a 58% completion rate.
The run game was underutilized with just 19 carries and 4.3 yards per carry. However, Keenan Allen had an excellent day with 98 yards from eight catches.
The defense was surprisingly good against the run. They held Dalvin Cook to just 3.9 yards per carry and totaled five tackles for a loss. The front seven added two sacks on top of those stats.
The Steelers will be hoping Big Ben will return two negative Covid tests by Friday, so that he may start this weekend. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t been as dominant as we are used to the past few weeks. They will face a tough test against the usually reliable Steelers’ defense.
I am taking the Steelers to produce a minor upset and beat the Chargers on the road.
New York Giants (+450) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-490)
Giants: The Giants are coming off their bye week. The last time out, they beat the Raiders 23-16. Daniel Jones only had 110 yards and a TD. Jones also coughed up a fumble which the Raiders recovered.
However, the rush game carried the Giants. The running backs finished with 149 yards at an average of 4.8 yards per carry. Devontae Booker was the most productive back with 99 yards.
The defense did concede 296 yards to Derek Carr and 117 yards to the Raiders’ run game. However, they managed three turnovers at crucial points in the Raiders’ drives.
Buccaneers: Tampa Bay lost to the Football Team on Sunday in a huge upset game. Tom Brady had a shocking start to the game by throwing two interceptions. Brady finished with 220 yards and two TDs.
The run game has been very productive this season. However, they only managed 53 rushing yards. All of the receivers chipped in with contributions. Mike Evens finished with the most yards. He had 62 yards from two receptions.
The defense couldn’t stop Taylor Heinicke, who was incredibly accurate on Sunday. The defense was excellent otherwise, with five sacks and eleven tackles for a loss.
The Giants are now 3-6 but are only two wins short of the playoffs. It looks unlikely that they will make it to the postseason, but anything is possible in a tightly contested division.
The Bucs are hot favorites, yet this game sees the difference in odds from the sportsbooks. New York’s odds range from +360 to +450 across the sportsbooks, which goes to show how important it is always to seek out the best odds.
Yet, I think the Bucs will return to form, winning easily and covering the spread of 10.5 points.