Odds For NFL Week 11

Will Armitage

Updated: Nov 14, 2022

Time flies in the NFL, as we’ve got the Thanksgiving games next week.

But for now, sportsbooks have posted Week 11 lines to bet on and view.

Which teams will cover their spreads? And which teams will win outright?

Read on for our analysis of the Week 11 sports lines, and check out our NFL Odds widget to make sure you’re getting the best possible odds.

After all, why leave extra cash on the table if your bet lands?

With NFL odds for Week 11 finding their range, let’s preview all 15 games.

Thursday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (+2.5, +125 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-2.5, -130 ML)

Mike Vrabel is the kind of coach to have his team prepared for big games.

There might not be a bigger one than this when the Titans travel to Lambeau on a short week.

The Packers are being run through the gauntlet schedule-wise.

They just played four road games in six weeks and are looking ahead to two more road games in Philadelphia (Sunday Night Football) and Chicago.

This is all before their super-late Bye in Week 14.

Vrabel is 17-11 ATS as an underdog in his career, and this is a rather sharp line. I’ll be taking the Titans up against a team blowing so hot and cold this season.

My pick: Tennessee Titans +2.5 (+100) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

Los Angeles Rams (+3, +130 ML) Vs. New Orleans Saints (-3, -140 ML)

This is a great game. It’s also very tough to handicap.

The Saints are in a sandwich spot, with this being their only home game in four weeks. But the Rams could be looking forward to the Chiefs in Week 12.

There’s no history to glean from this, considering Dennis Allen and Sean McVay have never matched up.

It’s always tough to play in the Superdome, however, and the Saints have the defense to stay in this one.

But the line is just too short. This is one to avoid from a betting perspective.

My pick: Pass |

Chicago Bears (+3, +145 ML) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, -160 ML)

Two of the NFL’s worst go head-to-head in this one.

There is a notable lack of talent all over the field here, although are we seeing a special talent materialize in Justin Fields?!

The Falcons are coming off a long week, however, after playing the Panthers on Thursday Night Football last week.

There’s some decent young quality in the secondary, with guys like Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell leading that unit.

If Grady Jarrett can get to Justin Fields, the young quarterback may be forced into mistakes and throw some very poor balls to likely covered receivers.

I think that will be the difference in this game and the Falcons will pull out a home win with the extra time to prepare.

My pick: Atlanta Falcons -3 (-160) | Playable at number

Washington Commanders (-2.5, -135 ML) Vs. Houston Texans (+2.5, +125 ML)

The Commanders are on a short week after playing the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

They’re also on the second game of a two-week road trip. This is set up as a poor spot for Washington.

Plus, this line may be giving the road quarterback too much respect. Are we sure there’s much of a difference between Carson Wentz and Davis Mills?

Both are not heading to the Pro Bowl any time soon.

I’d rather take the points with a gross home dog that has been frisky in this spot.

My pick: Houston Texans +2.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Cleveland Browns (+8.5, +325 ML) vs Buffalo Bills (-8.5, -350 ML)

While the Browns are an uber-talented roster, you need the full package to beat the Buffalo Bills.

Just ask Kurt Cousins how his team is feeling after what they accomplished on Sunday!

The Browns have weapons at the skill positions, a great offensive line, two elite pass rushers, and talent in the secondary.

But the Bills have the pieces to counteract that at an individual and game level.

The question then becomes: How many points is Josh Allen worth to the spread?

Because Jacoby Brissett is a replacement-level quarterback in my opinion.

If the Bills were to lose Allen, I bet they’d be around one-point favorites. So, I don’t project either side with much value at this number.

My pick: Pass

Detroit Lions (+3.5, +105 ML) Vs. New York Giants (-3.5, -125 ML)

This is a fascinating game.

Two NFC teams that are on the come-up but don’t yet have all the pieces to make a legit championship run.

Both made significant additions in the trenches through the draft, as well.

I think the Lions drop this one.

They’re on the second leg of back-to-back road trips and are looking forward to a Thursday Night matchup with Buffalo.

There’s still no talent in the secondary for the Lions, and Daniel Jones may be able to pick them apart.

If the run game gets a push in front of Saquon Barkley, this one is over.

My pick: New York Giants -3.5 (-110) | Playable at at number

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, -455 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (+9.5, +345 ML)

These are two very similar teams and rosters.

Both have elite offensive lines that push forward top-tier rushing attacks.

Both defenses can be frisky and are especially solid in the trenches.

The Eagles are coming off a short week, however, having played the Commanders on Monday Night in Week 10.

The Colts are looking ahead to a long week, with the Steelers coming up on Monday Night in Week 12.

One team is absolutely flying this season, whilst the other one has had their ups and downs.

I think the Colts will spring the upset of the season this weekend and actually sneak a victory!

My pick: Indianapolis Colts ML (+345) | Playable at number

Carolina Panthers (+12.5, +550 ML) Vs. Baltimore Ravens (-12.5, -675 ML)

How much respect can we give the Panthers?

None in this game.

I hate the Carolina roster and I love the Baltimore one. Not to mention the major coaching mismatch in-between Matt Rhule and John Harbaugh.

Add in that the Ravens are off their bye week, and this smells like a blowout.

I’m happy to be taking the Ravens with up to a two touchdown start here.

Back in the summer, this line was a touchdown lower at -5.5, but I’m still siding with Lamar and co…

My pick: Baltimore Ravens -12.5 (-110) | Playable to -13.5 (-110)

New York Jets (+3.5, +162 ML) Vs. New England Patriots (-3.5, -165 ML)

Interestingly, both these divisional rivals enter this game off a Bye.

We know that Bill Belichick has crushed the Jets in the past, and we know he enjoys doing it.

But the Jets are in the second year under Robert Saleh, and this line feels slightly high considering that.

But Saleh has covered just once against Belichick since taking over the Jets franchise, and he was demoralized last season.

The question is if Belichick’s defense can confuse Zach Wilson like they did last season.

I’m inclined to think he could, but I am wary of laying this many points in what could be closer to a coin flip game.

I’ll pass on this one.

My pick: Pass

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

Las Vegas Raiders (+3, +130 ML) Vs. Denver Broncos (-3, -145 ML)

The AFC West is so tight. Every time two of these teams face off, the spread should be right around -3 for the home team, given sportsbooks usually value home-field advantage at three points.

There’s no clear schedule advantage for either team.

The Broncos have the better roster in the trenches and likely a better secondary, but I don’t see any value in them at this number.

I’d rather pass on this one and enjoy what I hope will be an entertaining match-up between the bottom two in the AFC West.

My pick: Pass

Dallas Cowboys (-2, -120 ML) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (+2, +110 ML)

This is a huge spot for the Vikings, who just had to travel to Buffalo and face the ridiculously talented Bills.

To emerge victorious was an outstanding feat!

In the meanwhile, the Cowboys just played in Lambeau last week and now face an NFC North opponent on the road for the second straight week.

Moreover, I’m just higher on the Vikings than I am on the Cowboys.

I think the Cowboy secondary is overvalued and believe Kirk Cousins leads an explosive Vikings offense with Justin Jefferson as his No. 1 wideout and one of the very best in the league.

If the Vikings’ offensive line can fend off DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, they could drop 30+ points.

I think the Vikings should be laying points here, so I’ll happily take them as a PK in what I see as a mispriced line.

How can they be the underdogs with their 8-1 record?

My pick: Minnesota Vikings +2 (-107) | Playable at number

Kansas City Chiefs (-6, -235 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+6, +196 ML)

The Chargers are still viewed as the NFL’s shiny new toy, but Andy Reid is still a top-three coach in the NFL and should run circles around Brandon Staley.

Expect a lot of short underneath routes from Mahomes and co. while Staley tries to take away the deep routes with JC Jackson and co.

I think the Chiefs win time of possession here and pull off a massive road victory over a divisional opponent by at least a TD.

My pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-107) | Playable at number

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (-5, -200 ML) Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+5, +185 ML)

The Bengals are coming off their bye week, but this is the stereotypical Mike Tomlin “Rah-Rah” spot.

Tomlin is the most profitable underdog coach in NFL history, and he is catching points at home against the defending AFC champions.

The defense is going to be lights out against Joe Burrow and co., as the Bengals still have offensive line issues.

If anything, this will be an ugly AFC North matchup where the underdog has a clear advantage.

Burrow may go hero mode and win this game by himself, but I’m not going to bet against Tomlin in a spot like this.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +5 (-107) | Playable at number

Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, -235 ML) Vs. Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, +190 ML)

This is right around the time that Kliff Kingsbury falls apart. Dating back to his time at Texas Tech, Kingsbury teams have faltered down the stretch.

Since becoming an NFL head coach, Kingsbury is just 10-16-2 ATS from Week 8 on.

Although he’s incredibly profitable as an underdog, he’s just 3-11 ATS at home in the second half of the season.

Kingsbury is a surprising 4-1-1 ATS when coaching against Kyle Shanahan in his career, but that doesn’t give me enough confidence to back him in this spot.

Shanahan’s wide-zone offense runs all over the Cardinals and the ‘Niners pull off the win.

My pick: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (-109) | Playable at number

Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.

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About the author

Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower league...

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