In the Divisional round, the Detroit Lions’ defense allowed 23 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers’ defense allowed 21 points to the Green Bay Packers.

These defenses can be scored on, and with the Lions having the NFL’s 5th-ranked scoring offense (27.2 ppg) against the 49ers’ 3rd-ranked scoring offense (28.6 ppg), I’m expecting a bevy of points to be scored in the NFC Championship game.

Detroit has not played a game under a dome since Week 14 against the Chicago Bears (28-23 loss).

There’s been plenty of discussion this week about how well the Lions can play in an open air stadium, and how they may struggle without a roof over their heads.

To me, that just sounds like a bunch of noise.

After all, they did beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 1, so I’m not going to put too much stock in how well players perform in fresh air.

For this NFC Championship game, I’ll place a Same Game Parlay on BetRivers.

Jared Goff – OVER 299.5 Passing Yards and OVER 2.5 TD Passes

Goff averaged 269.1 passing yards in the regular season, but he’s averaging 282.1 passing yards in his first two games of the postseason.

With a little more at stack, Goff will ramp up the pass attempts even further.

Also, because the Lions’ subpar defense will keep him throwing.

The best path towards moving the ball downfield against San Francisco is through the air. The 49ers have allowed an average of only 213.1 passing yards per game (13th in NFL), but their rushing defense has allowed just 92.28 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL).

Here’s a defensive comparison between the NFC Conference finalists, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE.

If Detroit’s offense goes with a heavier dosage of pass plays, which I expect they will, they’ll find more success.

The Lions’ defense will give up large point totals on occasion, and that should only benefit Goff’s passing numbers.

Pick: Goff – OVER 299.5 Passing Yards (+250) BetRivers

Pick: Goff – OVER 2.5 TD Passes (+370) BetRivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown – OVER 7.5 Receptions, OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards, Anytime Touchdown

With Goff flinging the ball all over the yard, Amon-Ra St. Brown should receive plenty of targets.

If Detroit falls behind and abandons the running game, St. Brown could have a monster game.

In contests when Goff has attempted 40 or more passes, this is how St. Brown has fared:

Goff with 40 Pass Attempts	St. Browns’ Results
Week 6: Tampa Bay	12 rec, 124 yds, TD
Week 7: Baltimore	13 rec, 102 yds
Week 12: Green Bay	9 rec, 95 yds
Week 16: Minnesota	12 rec, 106 yds, TD
Divisional: Tampa Bay	8 rec, 77 yds, TD

In those five games, St. Brown averages 10.8 receptions for 100.8 receiving yards, and he scored in three of those five contests.

The Lions’ No. 1 target is on fire lately, scoring a touchdown in five of his last six games, and Detroit may need him to do it once again this Sunday.

St. Brown will run most of his routes from the slot, and he’ll be largely covered by San Francisco’s slot corner Deommodore Lenoir.

Lenoir was torched by Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, with Flowers picking up nine receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown, so he is beatable when the volume is there.

Last week, Packers’ wide receiver Jayden Reed only caught four passes for 35 yards against Lenoir, but that was only on four targets.

Goff should be peppering St. Brown with targets all game.

Pick: St. Brown – OVER 7.5 Receptions (+102) BetRivers

Pick: St. Brown – OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards (+145) BetRivers

Pick: St. Brown – Anytime Touchdown (+108) BetRivers

Brock Purdy – OVER 299.5 Passing Yards and OVER 2.5 TD Passes

The NFL’s most efficient passer this season (113 passer rating) is Brock Purdy, and Purdy will get to look for open receivers this week against Detroit’s 31st-ranked passing defense.

The matchup is simply too good.

With receiving options such as Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, the Lions’ defense is going to have a problem on their hands.

Here’s a quick look at Purdy’s games this season when throwing for 300+ yards:

Purdy’s 300+ Yard Games	Purdy’s Opponent	Opp. Pass Defense Rank
Week 3: 310 Yds	NY Giants	19th
Week 8: 365 Yds	Cincinnati	27th
Week 11: 333 Yds	Tampa Bay	28th
Week 13: 314 Yds	Philadelphia	30th
Week 14: 368 Yds	Seattle	22nd

Those 300-yard performances came against the bottom half of the NFL’s passing defense rankings, and with the Lions’ defense being 31st, why wouldn’t Purdy flirt with 300+ yards this week?

Pick: Purdy – OVER 299.5 Passing Yards (+145) BetRivers

Pick: Purdy – OVER 2.5 TD Passes (+180) BetRivers

Brandon Aiyuk – OVER 5.5 Receptions, OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards, and Anytime Touchdown

As the primary outside receiver for the 49ers, Aiyuk has a great matchup against Detroit’s defensive secondary.

Aiyuk will predominantly be covered by Lions’ defensive back Ifeatu Melifonwu, and that’s certainly a winnable matchup for the fourth-year receiver.

In the first two games of the playoffs, the receiver opposite of Melifonwu has recorded a big game, with Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams picking up nine receptions for 181 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets and Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers collecting eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets.

Aiyuk will be the next man to crush Melifonwu this postseason.

Brock Purdy drops it in to Brandon Aiyuk for the 76-yard touchdown. #49erspic.twitter.com/VScJeDznSG

— Rob Lowder (@Rob_Lowder) November 19, 2023

If Deebo Samuel is limited, or possibly even downgraded to ‘out’ prior to this game, Aiyuk’s target share will see a massive boost as well.

Aiyuk only recorded three receptions on six targets last week against Green Bay, so I would expect his usage to naturally increase.

Pick: Aiyuk – OVER 5.5 Receptions (+115) BetRivers

Pick: Aiyuk – OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards (+175) BetRivers

Pick: Aiyuk – Anytime Touchdown (-110) BetRivers

DET vs. SF SGP Legs – BetRivers	Odds
Jared Goff – OVER 299.5 Passing Yards	+250
Jared Goff – OVER 2.5 TD Passes	+370
Amon-Ra St. Brown – OVER 7.5 Receptions	+102
Amon-Ra St. Brown – OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards	+145
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Anytime Touchdown	+108
Brock Purdy – OVER 299.5 Passing Yards	+145
Brock Purdy – OVER 2.5 TD Passes	+180
Brandon Aiyuk – OVER 5.5 Receptions	+115
Brandon Aiyuk – OVER 99.5 Receiving Yards	+175
Brandon Aiyuk – Anytime Touchdown	-110
NFC Conference Championship SGP Odds	+6600

A $10 wager on this NFC Conference Championship Same Game Parlay would win $660!

Betting NFL Same Game Parlays

Same game parlay is just like a regular NFL parlay bet, except all bet selections come from different wagers within one football game.

The benefit of an NFL same game parlay is achieved by combining multiple bets so you can go for bigger wins as the odds increase.

The more bet selections you add, the more difficult it is to win, but the odds also greatly increase so is the potential winning amount.

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