Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Same Game Parlay | Game 6

The Denver Nuggets fell behind the Minnesota Timberwolves two games to none in the Western Conference Semifinals, but the Nuggets have since rattled off three straight wins to get ahead in the series.

After losing the first two games by an average margin of 16.5 points, the T-Wolves became the betting favorite to win the series.

Over the last three, Denver has won by an average margin of 16.7 points.

The tide has shifted in this series, and buying low on the Nuggets after their huge Game 2 loss may ultimately end up being the best bet of the NBA Playoffs.

For this potentially series-clinching matchup in Minneapolis, let’s dig into the matchups and find some legs to construct a Same Game Parlay.

This parlay will be placed on FanDuel.

Nikola Jokic – C, Denver Nuggets

In five games in this series, Jokic is averaging 29.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game in 39.2 minutes on the floor.

That’s an average of 49 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game.

In what could be the final matchup of this Western Conference Semifinals matchup, I’m expecting Jokic to be a dominant force and push the Timberwolves out of the NBA Finals conversation.

Denver’s center picked up a whopping 60 combined points, rebounds, and assists in Game 5, with a line of 40 points, seven rebounds, and 13 assists, and the most glaring number for Jokic against Minnesota in Game 5 may be the zero he recorded in the turnovers column.

Jokic, the recently-named NBA MVP, is the best player on the floor in any game he plays, and it tends to show in not just his numbers in the box score, but the final score of the game.

T-Wolves center Rudy Gobert was steamrolled by Jokic in Game 5 and I’m expecting nothing different in Game 6.

If the Nuggets are going to repeat as NBA champions, they need their big man to lead the way.

Pick: Jokic – OVER 50.5 Pts+Reb+Ast | (-122) FanDuel

Jamal Murray – PG, Denver Nuggets

Murray is ‘questionable’ to play as he is nursing a calf issue, but in this pivotal matchup, I would expect to see Denver’s point guard to hit the hardwood.

In Game 5, Murray still logged 41 minutes on the floor, and he should be good to go for tonight.

Murray averaged 6.5 assists per game this season, but he is only averaging 4.6 per game in this series.

With a calf injury potentially slowing him down, I’d expect Murray to bring a “quarterback-style” approach to the Nuggets’ offense tonight, slowing down the tempo and looking for open scoring lanes to pass to from the point.

Filthy pass from Jamal Murray pic.twitter.com/hvC2BTurYg

— buddhaball🏀 🍉 (@SiddharthNBA) May 16, 2024

Six assists can be hard to come by against a team with the defensive nature like Minnesota, but Murray should be able to find Jokic enough times to hit that number tonight in a potential series-clincher.

Pick: Murray – OVER 5.5 Assists | (-115) FanDuel

Aaron Gordon – PF, Denver Nuggets

Nuggets’ power forward Aaron Gordon is averaging 17.4 points per game in this series, and he was a large contributor in Denver’s Game 4 win by chipping in 27 points on 11-of-12 shooting, including two three pointers.

It was a historical performance from Gordon.

In Game 4, Aaron Gordon became the 3rd player in NBA history to record 25+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 5+ assists on 90%+ shooting in a postseason game, joining:

Chris Paul – 4/28/2022
Mitch Richmond – 5/02/1989 https://t.co/KOOSFHOCOt pic.twitter.com/RYaMDuVOaT

— NBA History (@NBAHistory) May 14, 2024

Gordon doesn’t need another historical showing to hit the over on his 14.5 points prop tonight, but considering that he has been shooting 66% from the field in his last four games, he should get enough scoring opportunities to usurp that number.

In four regular season meetings with Minnesota, Gordon averaged a measly 9.25 points per game, but it appears that he has figured out a way to tally points against this T-Wolves’ defense.

Pick: Gordon – OVER 14.5 Points | (+102) FanDuel

Anthony Edwards – G, Minnesota Timberwolves

In the first four games of this series, Anthony Edwards was averaging 33.25 points per game. As the leading scorer for Minnesota, the shooting guard was having little issue with scoring against the Nuggets’ shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Then, Timberwolves’ point guard Mike Conley went down with an injury, and Edwards was thrust into the point guard role.

It did not go well.

Edwards, being covered largely by Murray in Game 5, collected just 18 points on 5-of-15 shooting and committed four turnovers in 44 minutes.

Edwards only picked up 19 points in Game 3 as well, but only saw 37 minutes on the floor.

It’s do-or-die time for Minnesota, so Edwards should have a hefty workload, but without Conley on the floor, the T-Wolves lineup is a bit of a mashup, and the chemistry doesn’t seem to be as concrete as the lineup’s usual look.

Minnesota cannot afford another clunker from Edwards tonight, but with a high point total on his points prop (30.5), he could still put up a decent point total without reaching the line.

The T-Wolves will need 30+ points from Edwards in Game 6, but I don’t see them getting it.

Pick: Edwards – UNDER 30.5 Points | (-122) FanDuel

Naz Reid – PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has scored an average of 98 points in their three consecutive losses to Denver, and in those three losses, the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid has seen less minutes on the floor.

The T-Wolves must turn to their sixth man as an offensive catalyst off the bench.

Reid is averaging four less minutes per game in the postseason (20.6) than he did in the regular season (24.2), and that hasn’t been helpful to Minnesota’s overworked starting five.

In the first two games of this series, when Minnesota was up 2-0, Reid averaged 15 points in 26 minutes, but in the last three, Reid is averaging just 8.3 points in 20 minutes.

Reid needs more minutes!

Assuming that head coach Chris Finch does the right thing by calling Reid’s number often, I would expect Reid to put up some points, even if it does come in a losing effort.

Pick: Reid – OVER 9.5 Points | (-111) FanDuel

DEN vs. MIN SGP Legs – FanDuel	Odds
Nikola Jokic – OVER 50.5 Pts+Reb+Ast	-122
Jamal Murray – OVER 5.5 Assists	-115
Aaron Gordon – OVER 14.5 Points	+102
Anthony Edwards – UNDER 30.5 Points	-122
Naz Reid – OVER 9.5 Points	-111
DEN vs. MIN SGP Odds	+2008

A $10 wager on this Nuggets-Timberwolves SGP could win $200.80!