How To Bet On Shohei Ohtani

Fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers have seen their division rivals from San Diego forced to trade Juan Soto for payroll purposes and watched the biggest free agent in MLB history sign with their home squad.

The 2023-24 off-season is going pretty well for Dodgers fans so far.

With Shohei Ohtani now wearing Dodgers Blue, does landing the biggest fish in the free agent market guarantee success for the next ten years?

How should bettors approach the upcoming MLB markets with the news that LAD will now feature a lineup with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ohtani in it?

We take our best swing at those questions and everything to do with betting on Shohei Ohtani and his 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers.

Let’s go.

Betting On Shohei Ohtani In 2024

Shohei Ohtani Total Home Runs

FanDuel is offering Ohtani OVER 38.5 Home Runs at -120.

DraftKings is offering Ohtani OVER 45+ Home Runs at +130.

Ohtani’s Last 3 Years

Year	Games	Home Runs	WAR (Batting)
2023	135	44	6.6
2022	157	34	3.8
2021	155	46	5.1
3 YR AVG	149	41	5.16

With 44 home runs in 135 games last year, Ohtani easily has 45+ home run power, and the +130 odds at DraftKings might feel tempting.

However, I’m jumping on the OVER 38.5 offered at FanDuel, despite the -120 moneyline.

With an average of 41 home runs over the last three seasons and injury concerns before this year even starts, gimme the 38.5 and not the 45, even though I am hoping Ohtani hits 50.

Shohei Ohtani to Lead MLB in HRs

Leading the entire major leagues in any category, let alone home runs, is not easy.

With that in mind, if there was a reason to drop a unit on the newest Dodger to lead all of baseball in home runs, maybe we found it below.

2023 MLB HR Stats

Player	HR per At-Bat	Total HRs
Shohei Ohtani	11.3	44
Matt Olson	11.6	54
Kyle Schwarber	12.2	52
Yordan Alvarez	12.2	37
Pete Alonso	12.3	46

During the 2023 season, nobody had a better home run per at-bat percentage than Ohtani.

Matt Olson and Kyle Schwarber finished with 50+ home runs for the season, but Shohei averaged an HR every 11.3 at-bats in 2023, which was the best in all of MLB.

FanDuel offers Ohtani at +1100 to lead all of MLB in home runs.

Only four players are above Ohtani on the odds boards for this bet.

• Aaron Judge +380
• Matt Olson +750
• Kyle Schwarber +850
• Pete Alonso +850

For the record, I like Aaron Judge to hit a million home runs in 2024, but at +380 odds, I am not the only one with that opinion.

I think Ohtani at +1100 is more appealing than Judge at +380.

Shohei Ohtani To Win MVP

We know that in 2024, Ohtani will not pitch for the Dodgers.

As bettors, we now have to decide if he can be the best player in baseball with just his bat alone.

Shohei Ohtani WAR

Year	O-WAR	AL Rank
2023	6.6	1st
2022	3.8	27th
2021	5.1	10th

In 2023, Ohtani might have won the AL MVP Award with just his bat alone.

His 6.6 Batting-WAR was the highest in the American League, ahead of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, both of the Texas Rangers.

However, Ohtani is now jumping to the National League to play for his new team.

The 6.6 WAR that led the AL would only be 5th best in last year’s NL.

2023 WAR – MLB Leaders

Player	WAR	Team
Ronald Acuna	8.3	ATL Braves
Mookie Betts	8.3	LA Dodgers
Freddie Freeman	7.9	LA Dodgers
Matt Olson	6.7	ATL Braves
*Shohei Ohtani	6.6	LA Angels

Just to show that bookmakers don’t get the odds right all the time, or that maybe the betting public can get a little caught up in the media hype, let’s look at Caesars current NL MVP Odds. (at the time of this writing.)

• Shohei is +450 to win the NL MVP just days after signing with his new team.
• The current Dodgers’ first baseman (and future Hall of Famer) Freddie Freeman is +1800 to win the NL MVP Award.

Our WAR table above tells us that the gap in odds between these two teammates should be much closer.

How To Bet On The Los Angeles Dodgers

LA Dodgers Team Total Wins

Today, if you flip to the ESPN.com Dodgers page (like I did) and look up LA’s starting pitching depth chart, you will see Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Lance Lynn, and Bobby Miller listed as their top 5.

If you hadn’t been following the Dodgers news, you might think that LA is set up with some decent starting pitching in 2024.

That would not be accurate based on those five names above.

• Kershaw had shoulder surgery recently and is unsure whether he will ever pitch again.

• The last we heard of Julio Urias, he was being arrested for suspicion of felony domestic violence.

• Tony Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2023 and may not pitch next season.

• Lance Lynn signed as a free agent with the St. Louis Cardinals.

There is still time before opening day, and I suspect the Dodgers have a plan to improve their starting pitching between now and then.

What I don’t know is whether their win total of 102.5 will climb higher if they sign some free agents to help fill out their rotation.

Are we better to buy the Dodgers at 102.5 total wins and assume they will upgrade their rotation?

Or do we wait until they sign a couple of quality arms and run the risk of 102.5, climbing to 105 total wins or higher?

I’m going to wait, but that doesn’t make it the right move.

LA Dodgers To Win World Series:

Since the Ohtani news broke, the odds of the Dodgers winning the World Series shortened significantly.

Event	DraftKings	FanDuel	Caesars
World Series	+500	+550	+550
National League	+270	+280	+275
NL West Division	-240	-250	-280

Los Angeles was +700 or higher before the signing but is now the betting favorite, and as low as +500 at DraftKings to win it all.

As a bettor, and having just watched the turbulence that is MLB playoff baseball, I would rather play the San Diego Padres (+3500 to win the World Series) than the Dodgers at +550.

Even though the Dodgers have won 317 games in the last three regular seasons combined.

Money Does Not Guarantee Success

In the 2022-23 off-season, Carlos Correa of the Minnesota Twins signed a six-year contract worth a total of $200,000,000.

Correa is one of 20 players in major league baseball with a contract worth $200 million or more.

What does a team in 2023 get for just over $33 million a year?

Well, in the case of Correa, the Twins received a short stop with a 1.1 Overall WAR in 134 games. (WAR Stats according to FanGraphs.com)

A 1.1 WAR ranked Correa just inside the top 200 if we focused on American League players only.

Next year, FanGraphs is projecting Correa to be a 3.4 WAR player.

A 3.4 WAR wouldn’t justify his 33 million-a-year contract, but it would at least rank him inside the top 50 of AL players.

For Twins fans, that would be a good start.