Odds For NFL Week 2


Updated: Feb 28, 2023

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Week 1 gave us the first taste of professional football since February, and major storylines are already starting to develop.

Sportsbooks have posted NFL Week 2 odds to view and bet on, but don’t overreact to the results from Week 1.

It’s a long season, and teams are still developing their identities.

The pro football lines include a Thursday Night Football thriller and a Monday Night Doubleheader.

Which teams should win their Week 2 matchups? Which teams will cover their Week 2 spreads?

With NFL odds for Week 2 available let’s preview all 15 games for this coming weekend.

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, +160) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3, -200)

The Chiefs always start slow.

The defense generally looks like a dumpster fire in the early season, as Patrick Mahomes tries to carry his team through September and October with heroic offensive performances.

The Chiefs had the worst defense in the NFL in Weeks 1-through-4 last season, allowing a whopping .225 EPA per play.

That was worse than the Lions and Jaguars.

Was their performance last week a blip or are they destined to be playing still in February?

My view is that they will struggle to pull away from fellow unbeaten divisional rivals on Thursday.

The Chargers finished 2021 with a way-below-average defense. But they started 2021 strong and made some impactful offseason additions.

The most notable being cornerback JC Jackson, who they signed from the Patriots.

Mahomes is amazing, but he’ll be playing an uphill battle in these early-season games.

He’ll have to compete with an improved Chargers defense while trying to out-score his own unimpressive one.

Because of that, the Chiefs went 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in 2021, even as they were favored by 3 or more in each game.

And over the past two seasons, the Chiefs are 12-16 ATS as favorites of 3 or more.

For that reason, I’m taking the points with L.A. +3 is fine, but I’d hunt around the market if a +3.5 is available.

This spread was at +3 for much of the summer. Now that +3.5 is available, I’m helping myself to some.

My pick: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (+160)

Game Kick Off – 1 p.m. EST

New England Patriots (-1.5, -125) Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, +104)

The Steelers are in quarterback purgatory with Mitch Trubisky. Perhaps Mike Tomlin can find something with the former No. 2 overall pick, but I find that unlikely.

The Patriots always start the season slowly, but this is not a stripped-down roster like the Steelers.

Mac Jones should only improve as the season progresses – and his play in Miami shouldn’t be indicative of the rest of his season given New England’s history in South Florida. Plus, he has an added weapon in Devante Parker.

This game will be decided by Pittsburgh’s defensive line. The Steelers need to stop the Patriots’ run game and get pressure on Jones to pull this game out.

But the Steelers finished dead last in Running Back Line Yards Allowed in 2021, per Football Outsiders, and were 27th in Rush EPA per play allowed.

I’m not overthinking this one, despite the Steelers’ surprise victory against the Bengals.

Give me the Patriots at -1.5 or better.

My pick: New England Patriots -1.5 (-110)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, -177) Vs. New Orleans Saints (+3, +145)

Don’t forget the Saints went 2-0 straight up against Tom Brady and the Bucs last season.

The line was exactly +4 in their home game last year when Sean Payton used a combination of Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian to drop 36 points on the defending Super Bowl Champions.

Brady dropped 400 yards on 28-for-40 passing, but two interceptions proved to be his downfall.

The Saints have the Buccaneers’ number, but the sportsbooks have priced this up accordingly.

Originally the line was +4. Now it has moved to exactly a field goal. That point makes all the difference and so I’m going to pass!

My pick: Pass

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, -195) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5, +170)

With an improved offensive line and a top-five run game, Matt Ryan is going to thrive.

Frank Reich and co. should roll over the Jaguars. But they have the vastly better team every year and can never win in Jacksonville.

Since 2006, the Colts are a measly 13-23-2 ATS when playing the Jaguars. They haven’t won a game at TIAA Bank Field since 2014.

Even when the Colts needed a win to sneak into the postseason as double-digit favorites in Week 18 last year, the Colts still lost in Jacksonville.

Considering the history, I’ll grab the points with Jacksonville and may consider sprinkling the ML.

The spread has remained constant in recent months, whilst the best odds on the Jags has crept up to +170, which is tempting.

However, I’ll stick with Jacksonville on the spread.

My pick: Jaguars +4.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Miami Dolphins (+3.5, +160) Vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, -175)

What version of Lamar Jackson are we going to get moving forward?

Jackson was PFF’s 24th ranked quarterback last season (out of 39) based on their PFF passing and overall offensive grades.

He played in New York last week but that was against the lowly Jets.

The Dolphins finished 2021 with a top-10 defense via EPA per play allowed and were particularly good against the pass.

The Ravens have a stripped-down receiving core to pair alongside their questionable quarterback coming off an injury-riddled season.

It also doesn’t help the Ravens’ offensive line finished bottom-five in NFL last year in Adjusted Sack Rate last season and did little to fix that outside Morgan Moses and a fourth-round draft pick (OT Daniel Faalele, Minnesota).

Tua Tagovailoa and this revamped, speedy Miami offense is still a question mark for me, despite their decent Week 1 performance.

And while the Baltimore defense finished in the back-half of the league in DVOA and EPA per play allowed, it’s always tough to face John Harbaugh’s defense on the road.

I’m heavily leaning towards the under here, and will most likely find myself taking the points in a low-scoring grinder.

My picks: Leaning Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-110) | Leaning Under at 44, best priced with PointsBet

New York Jets (+6, +220) Vs. Cleveland Browns (-6, -230)

The Browns are elite at several positions. I like their offensive line to plow through the Jets’ defensive line.

I like their cornerbacks to stay with the Jets’ (perhaps overrated) skill players.

I think Jadevon Clowney and Myles Garrett will pressure Zach Wilson and force him into (characteristic) mistakes.

Jacoby Brissett is going to do his job, not throw the ball away against a terrible defense, and the Browns are going to rely on their defense and run game to get the win here.

Will they cover? It’s closer, and a ground-and-pound game script never trends towards favorites.

However, I still project some slight value on the Browns here, mostly because the Jets are so horrific and Wilson could give the game away.

All that pre-season money on the Jets to be AFC East champions looks poorly spent after Week 1. Their odds have leaped from +1400 to +5000.

And I expect the Browns to push them to a 0-2 start. Déjà vu anyone?!

My pick: Cleveland Browns -6 (-105)

Carolina Panthers (+1, +100) Vs. New York Giants (-1, -120)

Welcome to the ugliest game on the Week 2 slate.

I guess the Giants have more upside, and this is a better situational spot for them coming off the most successful road game against Tennessee while the Panthers got the Browns at home in Week 1.

I rather like the Giants draft, at least on day one. Evan Neal and Kayvon Thibodeaux have already had/are going to have an immediate impact on both sides of the line, and good football teams are built from the inside out.

If you still have faith in Saquon Barkley – which I do – take the Giants here.

There’s just nothing to like about the Panthers this year. But I don’t blame you if you stay as far away from this game as humanly possible.

Before New York’s surprise victory over the weekend, this line was at -1.

I don’t believe that the books have moved it enough and am happy to take the Giants with less than a field goal start.

My pick: New York Giants -1 (-110)

Washington Commanders (+2.5, +115) Vs. Detroit Lions (-1.5, -130)

I’m a believer in the Detroit Lions.

The Lions had 5.1 Pythagorean wins last year, meaning they underperformed their win total by over two games.

They added a high-energy guy in Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan) in the draft and pair him with another edge rusher in day-two pick Josh Paschal (Kentucky).

The pass rush will be much-improved after finishing 28th in PFF’s Pressure grades last season.

How do you think Carson Wentz will hold up against that?

He’s never been a good quarterback under pressure, and he doesn’t have a great offensive line in front of him – the Commanders’ line finished 25th in Adjusted Sack Rate last season.

The Lions’ offense doesn’t give me much hope, but maybe No. 12 overall pick Jameson Williamson (Alabama) can start to unlock more of Jared Goff against a Washington defense that finished fifth-to-last in Passing EPA per play allowed last season.

The Commanders are still very weak in the secondary.

I’ll back the Lions.

When the lines first came out I jumped at taking the Lions with +1.5. After their unlucky defeat against Philly, the line has further shifted through 0 to be at -1.5.

That is a field goal swing, but I’m still tempted to play the Lions.

My pick: Detroit Lions +1.5 (-110)

Game Kick Off – 4 p.m. EST

Seattle Seahawks (+8, +320) Vs. San Francisco 49ers (-8, -390)

I have no idea what to make of the Seahawks. The roster is completely stripped and they’re coming off a tough game against Denver.

Very few foresaw Geno Smith embarrassing Russell et al on Monday.

But I don’t trust the 49ers. They seem to be going through some QB identity issues with Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance.

Plus, San Fran is still going through growing pains with a new offensive coordinator.

The 49ers were great last season in Defensive Success Rate but were just league average in EPA per play allowed.

The defensive line will be as good as ever, but that might be far-and-away the best part of the team, and that could cause top-heavy issues.

The Seahawks should be somewhat undervalued this season.

Pete Carroll’s undying commitment to the run game will slow games to a halt and they could sneak out some ugly wins they shouldn’t have.

And at the minimum, they’ll show value catching lots of points due to their slow pace. I’ll bet the Seahawks catching over a touchdown here.

Who would have thought that this game would be between the undefeated Seahawks and the already defeated 49ers?

The money flows suggest that this has been ignored, as the Seahawks’ odds have drifted from +300 to +330.

Let me take that +9 on offer with Bet Rivers.

My pick: Seattle Seahawks +9 (-109)

Atlanta Falcons (+11, +450) Vs. Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, -500)

The Falcons roster construction is just too ridiculous to think about. Marcus Mariota is QB1 and he’s paired with Cordarrelle Patterson as the RB1.

They’re backed up by a defense that finished third-to-last in DVOA last season and doesn’t show too much promise.

But is 11 points too many?

This is set up as a bounce-back game for the Rams after their comprehensive defeat to the Bills in Week 1.

The moneyline has moved dramatically since they were first released from -900 to -500.

That doesn’t tempt me, but the Rams with -11 does.

They’ll be seething after their Week 1 showing. The Falcons will struggle against a feisty foe!

My pick: Rams -11 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, +210) Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5, -235)

Kliff Kingsbury is an easy coach to figure out. There are four rules when it comes to betting him, which I’ve aptly named the “Kliff Bars”:

  1. Bet Kingsbury as an underdog
  2. Fade Kingsbury as a favorite
  3. Bet Kingsbury in the first half of the season
  4. Fade Kingsbury in the second half of the season

Here, we’re getting Kingsbury and the Cardinals as 2.5-road dogs in Week 2.

Coach Kingsbury is 18-7-2 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career and 11-2 ATS as an underdog between Weeks 1 and 8.

The fact that the spread has risen from +2.5 earlier in the summer to +5.5 makes it even more appealing.

My pick: Arizona Cardinals +5.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-7, -295) Vs. Dallas Cowboys (+7, +265)

This is easily the most fascinating matchup of Week 2.

That was until Mr. Prescott injured himself!

The Bengals overperformed last season, putting together several improbable performances on their way to a Super Bowl appearance.

But Jamaar Chase is the real deal, and Joe Burrow finished 2021 as PFF’s No. 1 overall graded quarterback including the postseason.

I’m high on Dallas, however, who finished with the third-best defense in football per EPA per play allowed.

And the Cowboys tend to overperform in the early half of the season, going 6-1 to start the season last year.

They will now need to win 6 on the bounce to match that now!

With Dak’s injury, there has now been a massive swing in the lines. I was previously keen to take Dallas at -1.5.

Without him at the helm, this game is now a pass for me. +7 is too tough a line to crack.

Joe Burrows must be thanking his lucky stars that this banana skin of a game should now be much more winnable.

My pick: Pass

Houston Texans (+10, +425) Vs. Denver Broncos (-9.5, -435)

Are we sure we believe in Russell Wilson yet?

Wilson played moderately against his former team, but I’m not sure that’s indicative of anything moving forward.

Wilson has a great team around him, but the Broncos underperformed with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, and the same thing can happen this year if Wilson doesn’t sustain a high level of play.

Plus, this is just a tough spot for Denver. The Broncos are coming off an emotional (for Wilson) Monday Night matchup and now play the pesky Texans on a short week.

Houston is not a good team, but they covered three of four games down the stretch last season and covered four of their last six games as double-digit underdogs.

I think Davis Mills might be a little underappreciated by the betting markets, as well. He showed promise when playing well.

Hell, they led the Colts by 17 with just 10 minutes to play before their tie! I simply don’t see the Broncos galloping off into the distance this coming Sunday.

My pick: Houston Texans +10 (-107)

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears (+10, +400) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-10, -425)

Nothing like when the Bears and Packers get together. It’s even more special in primetime on Sunday Night Football. It’s yet more special when the Packers sit bottom of their division and the Bears are unbeaten!

Of course, the Packers generally dominate this matchup. Since 2006, the Packers are 25-12-1 ATS vs. their division “rival”. Green Bay has also won and covered six straight games against Chicago.

Why should it be different this year?

I think Justin Fields is starting to take a step forward, as demonstrated by his Week 1 performance against the 49ers.

And with the Packers losing Davante Adams, they could be slightly overvalued in the market based on their past performances.

Aaron Rodgers might well pull off a victory, but they are unlikely to blow Chicago away.

I think the Bears keep it within 10 on Sunday Night.

My pick: Chicago Bears +10 (-110)

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Tennessee Titans (+10, 375) Vs. Buffalo Bills (-9.5, -390)

The Bills are a wagon, but giving this Titans team a touchdown and a field goal feels like too much.

Mike Vrabel is a great coach, and the Titans are 18-11 ATS as an underdog underneath his leadership. And when the Titans are catching over six points with Vrabel at the helm, they’re 7-1 ATS.

The Titans will run the ball with Derrick Henry and play above-average defense. It didn’t look pretty, but Tennessee finished 2021 11th in Defensive DVOA.

And with the departure of A.J. Brown and the incoming Robert Woods, it does seem like Vrabel will lean more on the run game, which bodes well for the Titans as big underdogs.

I love the Titans in this spot, despite their lackluster game against the New York Giants last weekend.

Earlier in the summer I was prepared to back Tennessee receiving a touchdown. Now the spread has hit double digits, this really stands out.

My pick: Tennessee Titans +10 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings (+2, +108) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, -120)

I’m not sure what we’ll see out of the Eagles this season. The success of the franchise really hinges on Jalen Hurts’ progression.

But the Eagles have the pieces around Hurts for him to thrive, including the newly added A.J. Brown.

But more important than Brown is a Philadelphia run game that finished 2021 third in Rush DVOA and first in Rush Success Rate. Nick Srianni’s teams can run the football.

On the contrary, Minnesota’s rush defense finished 25th in Rush Defense DVOA and 29th in Rush EPA per play allowed. Miles Sanders is going to run freely all over the Vikings’ front seven.

That will be the difference in this game. I’m not super comfortable laying the 1.5 points with Philadelphia, so I’ll take their ML instead at -140 or better.

Minnesota may be excited to sit atop the NFC North. But I expect the Eagles to bring them back down to earth with a bump.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-120)

Check out NFL week 3 betting odds to lock in early bets before sportsbooks shift their lines.

If you fancy parlays, we got the best NFL parlay bets week 2 analysis worth checking out.

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About the author

Lukasz Strycharz | Web Manager – A flâneur who follows Formula One racing and dabbles in SEO and content in the iGaming and sports betting niche. T...

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