NFL Player Prop Bets Week 2 2025
Week 1 featured many storylines.
Category Ratings
It began with the Chiefs narrowly beating the Ravens 27-20 in the opener and ended with the 49ers defeating the Jets 32-19 in Aaron Rodgers’ return after his achilles injury.
It also provided us with a small sample of data to use for our Week 2 picks. It was a superb start for us at BestOdds. We went 3-0 in our Week 1 player props and parlay predictions.
Week 2 Player Props
The featured player prop picks are for passing attempts and receptions.
Daniel Jones 30+ pass attempts (-125 at Bet365)
Daniel Jones had an awful start to his 2024 season by losing 28-6 in a rout against the Minnesota Vikings.
The former No. 6 overall pick (2019) completed only 22-of-42 passes (52.4%) for 186 yards and averaged a measly 4.4 yards per attempt.
It was Jones’ first game back since Week 9 of last season when he tore his ACL. New York head coach Brian Daboll told the media after the game that he will remain the starter.
In 2023, the Duke product recorded 30+ passes in 3-of-6 starts (he only played in four full games, excluding the injuries in Weeks 5 and 9).
He averaged 32.75 pass attempts for those four contests.
Daniel Jones’ Five Full Games Played in 2023
| Game | Score | Jones Pass Attempts | Taylor Pass Attempts |
| Week 1 vs. DAL | 40-0 (Loss) | 28 attempts | 2 attempts |
| Week 2 at ARI | 31-28 (Win) | 37 attempts | 0 attempts |
| Week 3 at SF | 12-30 (Loss) | 32 attempts | 1 attempt |
| Week 4 vs. SEA | 24-3 (Loss) | 34 attempts | 0 attempts |
| Week 5 vs. MIA | 31-16 (Loss) | 20 attempts (injured) | 12 attempts |
| Week 9 at LV | 30-6 (Loss) | 9 attempts (injured) | N/A |
The 27-year-old likely would’ve reached the 30-mark against Dallas, but backup Tyrod Taylor came in and threw two passes since it was a blowout. The team ended up with 30 attempts, just not Jones himself.
Against Miami, Jones was on pace to reach 30 or more pass attempts but was forced to leave early with a neck injury.
Taylor once again replaced him and threw 12 attempts, making New York’s quarterbacks combine for 32 attempts.
When facing the Raiders in Week 9, Jones tore his ACL on the first play of the second quarter, and had already attempted nine passes. If you extrapolate the stat, he was on pace for about 36.
Jones easily could’ve reached 30+ pass attempts in all six of his starts in 2023 under Daboll, who remains the coach.
This week, the Giants will face their division rivals, the Commanders, in Washington, D.C. The Commanders opened as three-point favorites, which leads to a game script favoring Jones passing a lot.
Last week, in a 37-20 win against Washington, Baker Mayfield attempted 30 passes despite being in a run-first game script thanks to a large lead.
Obviously a lot has changed with the Commanders’ roster and coaching staff (brought in Dan Quinn and fired Ron Rivera), but last year the Washington’s opponents averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game.
Daboll will likely continue to see what he has with Jones under center early in the season, and if he continues to struggle, he’ll probably replace him with backup Drew Luck around midseason.
The Giants can’t rely on 5-foot-7 Devin Singletary as an every-down back and don’t have the luxury of loading up Saquon Barkley (now with Philly) with carries.
This is another factor that will probably lead to Jones recording 30 or more pass attempts.
Utilizing fantasy football and betting analytical models also helps when betting on player props.
The projections from some of the top models in the industry are featured below.
Model projections for Jones’ pass attempts at WAS
- ESPN: 34
- FantasyPros: 33
- Action Network: 31.50
- Numberfire: 31.41
Jones’ line of 30+ pass attempts at -125 (bet365) is a superb price, with other books, such as Caesars, listing him at -143 for the same line.
FanDuel lists his total for the over at 31.5 (+100), and DraftKings features his total at 30.5 (-115).
Dallas Goedert over 3.5 receptions (-114 at FanDuel)
Last year, Goedert cleared 3.5 receptions in 10/14 (71.4%) contests.
The 29-year-old tight end was on pace for 11/14 (78.57%) but was forced to exit Week 9’s outing against Dallas due to a fractured forearm. He had three catches before leaving in the third quarter.
In Week 1, Goedert caught four passes on four targets. He’ll likely have more targets this week because Atlanta allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends in 2023.
A week ago, the Falcons gave up six catches to Steelers’ tight ends, including four against their starter Pat Freiermuth.
According to Derek Brown of FantasyPros, the Falcons employed single-high coverage on 62.1% of snaps in Week 1.
In 2023, Goedert was eighth in the NFL in separation score and 11th in route win rate vs. single-high.
The Falcons also ranked 29th in the NFL in yards allowed to opposing tight ends during 2023.
Goedert is clearly one of quarterback Jalen Hurts’ favorite targets and more than just a safety blanket.
He averaged 5.92 targets per game in 2023 and achieved seven or more targets in seven contests.
The -114 odds for over 3.5 receptions are valuable at FanDuel, thanks to other books, such as Caesars, listing him at -131. BetMGM features him at -125.
Fantasy and betting models also favor him to beat the line.
Model projections for Goedert’s receptions vs. ATL
- ESPN: 4
- FantasyPros: 4.3
- Numberfire: 3.9
- Yahoo: 3.9
- Action Network: 3.6
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