NFL MVP Odds 2026

A familiar name is now atop the odds board, looking to claim his third career MVP award. Patrick Mahomes is the short favorite at +125. Mahomes has guided the Chiefs out of choppy waters after a rocky start. Kansas City has overcome injuries, suspensions, and the lingering effects of being embarrassed in the Super Bowl this past February by the Eagles. After starting the season 0-2, the Chiefs have won four of their last five games and look as strong as ever.

For most of the season, the odds-on favorite to win MVP was reigning league MVP Josh Allen, whose odds dropped to as low as -110 in some spots entering Week 6. He’s now listed as the second-shortest favorite at +350, largely due to a two-game losing streak the Bills carried into their bye week. Despite that stumble, Allen remains a very strong candidate.

The biggest surprise on the odds board is the rise of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. After the Patriots slipped to 1-2 with an ugly home loss to the Steelers, Maye was listed anywhere from 100-1 to 125-1 to win MVP. Since then, Maye and the Patriots have been white-hot, winning four straight games. His dazzling performance on Sunday Night Football in Buffalo conjured memories of Tom Brady’s dominance over Bills Mafia for so many years.

Maye now carries the third-shortest odds to win MVP at +700. If you have a Maye futures ticket in hand, you’re sitting on a potentially juicy profit should he pull off what once seemed unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

Before we jump into the rest of the MVP race, here’s a look at the current odds as we enter Week 8.

Week 16 NFL MVP Odds Report

The Favorites

Matthew Stafford (-220) – QB – Los Angeles Rams

Remember all that chatter about Stafford’s health and possible retirement? Yeah, it turns out all of that was a bunch of bologna.

Stafford has been sensational in his age – 37 season, and leading the league in TDs pases and yardage. In Week 7, the Rams made the long trip from Los Angeles to London, and all the ageless veteran did was throw five touchdown passes on the day, despite Puka Nacua being sidelined with an ankle injury.

The Rams are one of the top contenders in the NFC, and if they can emerge from a loaded NFC West, Stafford is a name to watch as he could give the current MVP frontrunners a serious challenge.

Best MVP Betting Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (-220)

Drake Maye (+420) – QB – New England Patriots

Every season there seems to be a quarterback who makes the unexpected leap from good to star, and this year that player is Drake Maye.

The Patriots have been a force this season, with Maye throwing for almost 3,600 yards and 23 touchdowns through Week 15. He currently leads all starting quarterbacks in completion percentage at 70.9%.

Best MVP Betting Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (+420)

Josh Allen (+440) – QB – Buffalo Bills

The defending NFL MVP looked to be well on his way to securing his second consecutive award, but the Bills defense has not been doing their franchise quarterback many favors. The Patriots and Falcons each picked apart Buffalo’s defensive unit earlier in the season.

Buffalo has since returned to form and Allen is a huge part of that. If Allen can lead Bills Mafia to wins down the strecth, he will at leats be back in the MVP conversation

Best MVP Betting Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (+440)

Recent NFL MVP Winners

Recent MVP Trends

It’s a Quarterback’s Award: Every MVP since 2012 has been a quarterback and 21 of the last 25 NFL MVP awards have gone to the top signal caller of the season. Look for the offensive player of the year award futures market if you want to bet on a running back or receiver.

Team Success Matters: 18 of the last 20 MVPs played for teams with at least 12 wins.

Passing Stats Drive Votes: Those sexy box score numbers go a long way with voters. Keep that in mind if you’re debating betting on a guy that may not have the stats to pull in the necessary attention to win this award.

Dual-Threat Advantage: If you can be just as dangerous with your legs as you are your arm, you have a big leg up in this award.

Narrative Counts: Pay close attention to the storylines around the league as the season winds down, often times that will point you in the right direction as to how the race for NFL MVP is shaking out.

How Is the NFL MVP Decided?

The NFL’s Most Valuable Player award is determined through a voting process conducted by a panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the United States.

Each voter selects their top candidates, and the player with the most points is named MVP. While there is no hard games-played minimum like the NBA’s 65-game rule (which will prevent Joel Embiid from ever becoming MVP ever again), player availability plays an enormous factor in who eventually becomes MVP, as a quarterback or another key contributor missing three or four games can see their MVP chances evaporate.

The NFL MVP is announced during the NFL Honors show, held the Thursday before the Super Bowl.

Because of the award’s history and the significance from the position itself, quarterbacks absolutely dominate the voting. The last 11 straight winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks and dating back to 2000, 21 of the last 25 winners of the NFL MVP award have been, you guessed it, a quarterback.

Essentially, a running back or wide receiver would need a historic season just to be in the conversation.

The race to be NFL MVP figures to be as wide open as any in recent seasons. Here’s a look at how the NFL MVP race shakes down as we inch closer to the new season.

How to Bet on the NFL MVP Award

• Follow the season closely! Injuries, big wins, and standout performances can shift odds.
• Log into your sportsbook account, or sign up if you don’t have one.
• Navigate to the NFL betting section, usually under ‘Football’ or ‘NFL Odds.’
• Select ‘Player Futures’ then find the ‘NFL MVP’ market.
• Choose your player and enter your stake, confirm the bet in your slip.

All odds were accurate as of this writing. All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise listed.