2025 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Odds
We are in the golden age of the NFL, at least as far as quarterback play goes.
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While we recently saw Tom Brady retire and we’ve already seen the likes of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and more already hang it up, the next generation of quarterbacks are here and they’re not going away for a long time.
Patrick Mahomes has already won three Super Bowls. Jalen Hurts has won a Super Bowl. Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy have been to a Super Bowl. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have come a game away from a Super Bowl.
The list goes on and on.
With so many quality quarterbacks around the NFL, one of the more intriguing and entertaining futures bets on the market is that of who will lead the NFL in touchdown passes for the upcoming season.
There are several good selections to choose from, we’ll break them all down and show what oddsmakers are projecting for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.
Before we get started, however, let’s take a quick look at the leaders from last season.
2024 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leaders
| Player | Passing Yards | Passing Touchdowns |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 4918 | 43 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 4500 | 41 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 4172 | 41 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 4629 | 37 |
| Sam Darnold (MIN) | 4319 | 35 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 3775 | 29 |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 3897 | 28 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 3731 | 28 |
The 2024 NFL season was the best season of Joe Burrow’s career, by a significant margin, as the former #1 overall pick bounced back from a season-ending elbow injury to throw for 43 touchdowns.
Burrow’s 43 touchdowns were the highest total in the NFL last season, with Baker Mayfield throwing a career high 41 touchdowns and Lamar Jackson having an absurd touchdown to interception ratio of 41 touchdowns and only four interceptions a season ago.
Jared Goff put up 37 touchdown passes in Ben Johnson’s dynamic offense that led the NFL in scoring a season ago. Bo Nix posted 29 touchdown passes in his rookie season, the second highest total for any rookie quarterback in NFL history.
How many of these quarterbacks are expected to carry over that strong play into 2025? Here’s a look at the odds to lead the league in passing touchdowns for the upcoming NFL season.
2025 NFL Most Passing Touchdowns Odds
The following quarterbacks are the favorites to record the most touchdown passes this season.
| Player | Odds | 2024 Passing TD’s |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +550 | 43 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +1000 | 41 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +1200 | 41 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +1200 | 26 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +1400 | 28 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1500 | 11 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +1500 | 37 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +2250 | 29 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +2500 | 25 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +2500 | 20 |
Favorites to Lead NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2025
Matthew Stafford ran away this title late in the season and had 40 touchdown passes through Week 16. He seems to mostly have this award in the bag unless some other players put up monster Td numbers in the remaining weeks. Here’s a look at each QB that was in contention when the season began and the odds bettors could have had on each.
Matthew Stafford (+1700) – Los Angeles Rams
Stafford has delivered one of the finest seasons of his career in 2025, powering the Rams’ high-octane offense. At age 37, the veteran quarterback has showcased remarkable efficiency, pairing his league-leading TD total with a low interception count (just five) and almost 4,200 passing yards through Week 16.
The ability to distribute the ball to elite targets like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams has produced explosive plays, including multiple games with 350-plus yards and multi-TD outings, reminding fans of his Super Bowl-winning form in 2021.
The Rams’ playoff push has been fueled by Stafford’s red-zone mastery and clutch performances, solidifying his resurgence as one of the NFL’s premier arms despite entering the season with questions about age and supporting cast. With three games remaining, he’s on track for one of his highest TD totals ever, cementing 2025 as a standout chapter in his Hall of Fame trajectory.
Joe Burrow (+550) – Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow was the short favorite to once again lead the NFL in passing touchdowns when the season began and for good reason, the Bengals offense was set to be one of the best in all of football, but also, their defense was expected to be amongst the worst, meaning a lot of shootouts involving Burrow and the Bengals.
Baker Mayfield (+1000) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield is playing with his third different offensive coordinator since joining the Bucs two seasons ago, as 2024 OC Liam Coen departed to take the Jaguars job, a year after Dave Canales departed to take the Panthers job.
Mayfield, however, has more weapons on offense than he’s probably ever had as a pro. The latest weapon added to the Bucs arsenal is that of Emeka Egbuka, the latest of a long line of receivers to come to the NFL from Ohio State. Egbuka joins Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and last year’s surprising rookie Jalen McMillan to give Tampa one of the deepest WR corps in football.
Lamar Jackson (+1200) – Baltimore Ravens
Once upon a time Bill Polian said Lamar Jackson should be a wide receiver, and all Lamar did last year was put up 41 touchdowns and four picks. Oops.
Lamar’s previous high for passing touchdowns in a season was 36 in 2019 and up until last year he had never reached 30 touchdowns in a season. An injury earlier in the season definitely put him out of contention for most TD passes.
Patrick Mahomes (+1200) – Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes entered 2025 after putting up just 26 touchdowns a season ago, his lowest total since becoming a starter. Mahomes, who threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns just three years ago, won;t even reach last year’s total after a season-ending knee injury.
Josh Allen (+1400) – Buffalo Bills
We get it. Josh Allen sounds enticing because he’s Josh Allen. However, remember to consider what a threat Josh is in the running game, and that his rushing touchdowns cannibalize the passing efforts. Also consider that Buffalo is due for some bad weather in the later weeks of the year, that drops scoring and leads to more running of the football. By Week 15, Allen had just 25 TD passes and look out of the TD pasing race.
Sleepers to Lead the NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2025
Dak Prescott (+1500) – Dallas Cowboys
Despite a difficult 2024 season, Dak has hummed in this Cowboys offense this season and adding the explosive George Pickens to complement CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson in the Cowboys passing game was a great move. It’s been a great year for Dak overall.
Jared Goff (+1500) – Detroit Lions
Jared Goff’s transformation in the Motor City has been a sight to behold, however, it remains to be seen if losing Ben Johnson will have a big impact on the Lions high-octane offense or not.
Should the Lions not miss a beat, Goff has enormous value with this bet given how explosive the Lions rushing game is and how dominant the Lions offensive line has been in recent seasons.
Jordan Love (+2500) – Green Bay Packers
Love had a down season in 2024 thanks to an injury that knocked him out of two games and kept him hobbled for several weeks after that. Not to mention, the Packers lost various wide receivers due to injury throughout the season, and when you don’t have a true No. 1 WR on the team that tends to lead to problems.
Well, Matt LaFleur went out in the 2025 NFL Draft and got Jordan Love a wide receiver they hope can take on that role of being the go to guy in the passing game, and the Packers QB has had a bounce back season.
Trevor Lawrence (+3000) – Jacksonville Jaguars
The whispers of Trevor Lawrence being the “B” word are starting to grow louder, and this is quietly the biggest season of the former Clemson star’s NFL career. Lawrence has yet to show the play that merits the contract extension he already inked, in large part because the Jaguars are a terrible organization and have failed to give Lawrence the support he needs.
However, that’s why the team hired Liam Coen from Tampa Bay, and as mentioned above, Coen’s one season as Bucs’ offensive coordinator resulted in Baker Mayfield throwing for 41 touchdowns. The Jags have shown major improvement in 2025 and Lawrence had 23 TD passes going into Week 16.
NFL Total Passing Touchdowns Leaders Since 2015
| Year | Player | Total Passing TDs |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow (CIN) | 43 |
| 2023 | Dak Prescott (DAL) | 36 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 41 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady (TB) | 43 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 48 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 36 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 50 |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson (SEA) | 34 |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers (GB) | 40 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady (NE) | 36 |
Always Shop Around For The Best Odds
Shopping for the best possible odds is imperative no matter what bet you’re making, but it’s especially important in the world of futures betting.
For example, if you bet on Burrow to lead the league in passing touchdowns at +420 odds at FanDuel because it was the first line you came across, you’d be doing yourself a big disservice, because you could have the same bet at DraftKings for +550.
A $100 wager would pay a difference of $130 if Burrow went on to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and you’d have left a nice profit on the table.
How To Bet on the NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader
Here’s how you can place a wager on who will lead the league in passing touchdowns for 2025:
1. Log into your sportsbook account.
2. Go to the BestOdds Odds Hub and click on the ‘NFL’ tab.
3. Go to the ‘Player Futures’ section.
4. Select the ‘Most Passing TDs’ option.
5. Pick the quarterback you want to bet on.
6. Place the wager using the bet slip shown on the right-hand side of your screen
