2026 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Odds
The NFL is in a golden age of quarterback play. The combination of rules protecting passers, sophisticated offensive scheme design, and a generational pipeline of talent…
Matthew Stafford delivered the most complete season of his 17-year career in 2025, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns with 46 and winning the MVP award in the process. He did it at age 37, with a new receiver in Davante Adams alongside Puka Nacua, in a Los Angeles offense that Sean McVay had running at its peak efficiency.
His 46 touchdowns were the most by any quarterback since Patrick Mahomes threw for 50 in 2018, and Stafford’s 7.7 percent touchdown rate led the NFL. He threw 12 touchdowns on deep passes alone, which ranked first in the league.
Joe Burrow was the 2024 leader with 43 touchdowns, a campaign many considered the best of his career. His 2025 season was derailed by a toe injury that cost him nine games. With Burrow now returning to full health for 2026-27, and with Ja’Marr Chase entering the season coming off 185 targets and a career-high appearance rate, the Bengals’ passing attack is poised to re-emerge as one of the top scoring offenses in football.
The 2026-27 passing touchdowns leader market opens with questions that go beyond simply who is the most talented. Who will play the most games? Whose red zone scheme favors the passing touchdown? Who will face enough defensive weakness to keep attempting 400-plus passes? Those analytical questions, layered on top of raw talent, shape how this market should be bet.
Best Sportsbooks for NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader
DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings offers NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting throughout the season, allowing bettors to wager on which quarterback will finish with the most touchdown passes. Futures markets are available before the season begins and continue to update as quarterbacks climb the league leaderboard.
Passing touchdown leader betting is influenced by offensive philosophy, red-zone efficiency, quarterback durability, and overall passing volume. Bettors often focus on elite quarterbacks in high-powered offenses capable of producing touchdowns consistently throughout the season.
Key Features:
- NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader futures
- Extensive quarterback prop betting markets
- Same-game parlays and season-long betting
- Comprehensive NFL awards and statistical leader markets
FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel features NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting on many of the league’s top quarterbacks. The market remains active throughout the season as players compete for one of the NFL’s most important statistical crowns.
Odds are updated regularly based on weekly performances, injuries, and offensive trends. Bettors can follow the touchdown race while also exploring a broad selection of quarterback-focused futures.
Key Features:
- Competitive passing touchdown leader odds
- User-friendly futures betting platform
- Broad NFL player futures menu
- Frequent football odds boosts
BetMGM Sportsbook
BetMGM offers NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting with futures available before and during the season. Bettors can back established stars or identify quarterbacks positioned for breakout seasons.
The sportsbook updates odds throughout the year as touchdown totals fluctuate and contenders emerge. These futures provide season-long betting opportunities tied directly to quarterback production.
Key Features:
- Extensive NFL player futures offerings
- Regular odds updates throughout the season
- Strong selection of statistical leader markets
- Broad NFL betting coverage
Caesars Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook provides NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting as part of its comprehensive football futures lineup. Bettors can wager on quarterbacks expected to produce elite passing numbers throughout the season.
The market frequently includes MVP candidates, veteran stars, and emerging young quarterbacks. Caesars adjusts odds regularly as players move up and down the touchdown leaderboard.
Key Features:
- NFL statistical leader futures
- Caesars Rewards integration
- Wide range of NFL player markets
- Multiple season-long betting options
bet365 Sportsbook
Bet365 features NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting alongside one of the deepest football betting menus available. Bettors can track touchdown leaders throughout the season while also exploring numerous player and team futures.
The sportsbook offers extensive wagering opportunities tied to quarterback performance and statistical achievements. Odds are updated consistently as the race evolves.
Key Features:
- Deep NFL futures markets
- Extensive player statistical leader betting
- Strong live betting functionality
- Numerous alternate betting options
BetRivers Sportsbook
BetRivers offers NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting throughout the season with futures available on many of the league’s top quarterbacks. Bettors can monitor odds changes as touchdown totals fluctuate from week to week.
The market appeals to bettors who enjoy following quarterback races over the course of an entire season. Odds are adjusted regularly based on performance and availability.
Key Features:
- Competitive passing touchdown futures
- Easy-to-navigate sportsbook interface
- Strong NFL player betting menu
- Multiple season-long futures markets
Hard Rock Bet
Hard Rock Bet features NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader betting as part of its growing football futures portfolio. Bettors can place wagers on quarterbacks expected to challenge for the league lead in touchdown passes throughout the season.
The sportsbook updates odds regularly as passing leaders emerge and the race develops. These markets provide an alternative to team-focused futures while emphasizing quarterback production.
Key Features:
- NFL statistical leader betting markets
- Competitive player futures odds
- Clean and intuitive user experience
- Broad football betting coverage
What Is the NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Bet?
The passing touchdowns leader bet is a season-long futures wager. You are backing a specific quarterback to finish the 18-week regular season with more passing touchdowns than every other starter in the league. Like all NFL season-leader markets, the bet resolves after Week 18. Playoff passing touchdowns do not count.
Several structural facts are worth understanding before placing a bet in this market.
Volume and scheme drive touchdown production more than talent alone. The quarterback who leads the NFL in passing touchdowns almost always plays in an offense that calls pass plays near the goal line at an above-average rate. Teams that run the ball inside the five-yard line deprive their quarterback of touchdown opportunities regardless of how good that quarterback is.
Conversely, a quarterback whose team throws at a high rate from inside the twenty will accumulate touchdowns even in years when they are not the most efficient passer. Red zone pass rate is one of the most important analytical inputs for this market.
Health is the most important variable. Stafford’s 2025 season was only possible because he played all 17 regular-season games after a back condition that raised concerns before training camp. Burrow’s 2024 performance would likely have won the 2025 title too had he played a full season. Forty-plus touchdown seasons almost always require 16 or more starts. Any significant injury essentially ends a quarterback’s contention.
The leading touchdowns total in most recent seasons has been between 36 and 46. Manning’s 55 in 2013 remains the record and appears unreachable under current defensive talent levels. Brady’s 50 in 2007 and Mahomes’ 50 in 2018 represent the modern ceiling. Bettors who project any individual quarterback to exceed 45 in a given season are taking on significant risk regardless of the talent involved.
2025 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leaders
Stafford’s 46 touchdown season was dominant in a way that went beyond just the raw number. He led Jared Goff by 12 touchdowns, the largest margin between first and second in passing touchdowns in years. The gap tells the story of the entire 2025 quarterback class: an elite tier of passers performing at a high level, but with one performance standing clearly apart.
| Rank | Player | Team | Pass TDs | Yards | Passer Rating | Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 46 | 4,707 | 109.2 | 597 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | 34 | 4,564 | 105.5 | 578 |
| 3 | Drake Maye | New England Patriots | 31 | 4,394 | 113.5 | 354 |
| 4 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 30 | 4,552 | 99.5 | 600 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 29 | 4,007 | — | 560 |
| 6 | Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | 27 | 3,942 | — | 568 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | LA Chargers | 26 | 3,727 | — | 340 |
| 7 | Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 | 3,693 | — | 543 |
| 9 | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 25 | — | 102.2 | — |
| 9 | Sam Darnold | Seattle Seahawks | 25 | 4,048 | — | — |
| 9 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | 25 | 3,931 | — | 612 |
The leaderboard produced several storylines directly relevant to the 2026-27 market. Drake Maye’s 31 touchdowns at a 113.5 passer rating were the most efficient season by any qualified starting quarterback in 2025, yet he ranked third in touchdowns with fewer than 355 attempts because the Patriots managed his usage conservatively.
More volume in 2026-27 could push him significantly up this list. Burrow’s absence from the top 12 was entirely driven by injury: he played only seven full games with Burrow healthy all season and the Bengals still finished top five in dropback rate.
Favorites to Lead the NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2026
The latest 2026-27 season passing-touchdown totals continue to put Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Jared Goff at the top of the market. Burrow carries the highest widely posted total at 32.5 touchdowns, while Stafford is at 30.5 and Goff at 29.5. Dak Prescott is currently at 27.5, while Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, and Patrick Mahomes sit around 25.5.
These are season over/under totals rather than outright leader prices, but they provide a useful snapshot of how sportsbooks currently rank the top touchdown-pass candidates. Lines can move as Week 1 approaches and throughout the season.
| Player | Team | 2026 Pass TDs O/U | Current Market Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 32.5 | Highest verified total among the leading contenders |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 30.5 | Defending 2025 passing-TD leader |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | 29.5 | Remains one of the highest-volume touchdown candidates |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 27.5 | High-volume passing offense keeps him in the top tier |
| Drake Maye | New England Patriots | 25.5 | Coming off 31 passing touchdowns in 2025 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 25.5 | Posted 29 passing touchdowns in 2025 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 25.5 | Returning from knee injury entering 2026 |
Current 2026 season passing-touchdown totals verified in early September 2026. Odds and totals are subject to change by sportsbook.
Stafford and the regression question. His 46 touchdowns in 2025 were a career high by five, occurring in his 17th NFL season at age 37. The current 30.5 total shows that sportsbooks expect meaningful regression from that historic peak while still projecting Stafford as one of the league’s leading touchdown passers.
Burrow’s return. Burrow led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns in 2024 before his 2025 season was disrupted by injury. His current 32.5 total is the highest verified season line among the leading contenders and reflects the market’s expectation that a healthy Cincinnati passing attack can return to elite production.
Goff’s volume case. Goff’s 34 touchdowns in 2025 came on 578 attempts, and his current 29.5 total keeps him among the market’s top projected touchdown passers. Detroit’s offensive volume gives him a clear path to another 30-touchdown season if he stays healthy.
NFL Passing Touchdowns Leaders: Last 10 Seasons
The year-by-year table reveals the range of realistic outcomes for any single season. The record-setting 46-touchdown mark from 2025 was exceptional; the more common range for a league leader has been between 36 and 43.
| Year | Player | Team | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 46 |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 43 |
| 2023 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 36 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 41 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 43 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 48 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 50 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz | Philadelphia Eagles | 33 |
| 2016 | Drew Brees | New Orleans Saints | 37 |
Three patterns stand out from this table. First, the preseason betting favorite has not won this title consistently, reinforcing the value of shopping mid-tier candidates at longer prices. Second, the winning total has reached 40 or more in six of the last ten seasons.
A bettor who uses 38 touchdowns as a minimum winning threshold is setting a realistic floor for the outright leader bet. Third, health dominates: Wentz’s 2017 campaign was on pace for more than 40 touchdowns before a torn ACL ended his season. Winston’s 33-touchdown title in 2019 was also accompanied by a league-leading 30 interceptions, illustrating that the market can sometimes go to a high-volume passer whose efficiency does not match their raw numbers.
All-Time NFL Passing Touchdowns Records
Peyton Manning holds the single-season record with 55 touchdown passes in 2013, a figure set in a uniquely favorable era for Denver’s offense that features a combination of receiving talent, offensive line quality, and scheme sophistication that is unlikely to recur in exactly the same form.
| Rank | Player | Team | Season | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peyton Manning | Denver Broncos | 2013 | 55 |
| 2 | Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 2007 | 50 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 2018 | 50 |
| 4 | Peyton Manning | Indianapolis Colts | 2004 | 49 |
| 5 | Dan Marino | Miami Dolphins | 1984 | 48 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 2020 | 48 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 2025 | 46 |
| 8 | Kurt Warner | St. Louis Rams | 1999 | 41 |
| 9 | Tom Brady | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2021 | 43 |
| 10 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 2024 | 43 |
Stafford’s 46-touchdown 2025 season places him seventh on the all-time single-season list, a remarkable achievement for a quarterback in his 17th year.
The broader takeaway from this table is that 40-plus touchdown seasons are rare, typically requiring a combination of elite offensive talent, ideal scheme conditions, health across all 17 games, and some favorable red zone game-script concentration. They are achievable but not predictable, which is why the passing touchdowns leader market carries more variance than the passing yards leader market.
All-Time Career Passing Touchdowns Leaders
Tom Brady’s career record of 649 passing touchdowns is the most durable individual record in professional football. He threw more touchdown passes after his 40th birthday than most quarterbacks throw in their entire careers.
| Rank | Player | Career TDs | Active Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | 649 | 2000-2022 |
| 2 | Drew Brees | 571 | 2001-2020 |
| 3 | Peyton Manning | 539 | 1998-2015 |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 527+ | 2005-present |
| 5 | Brett Favre | 508 | 1991-2010 |
| 6 | Philip Rivers | 425 | 2004-2020 |
| 7 | Matthew Stafford | 423+ | 2009-present |
| 8 | Ben Roethlisberger | 418 | 2004-2021 |
| 9 | Dan Marino | 420 | 1983-1999 |
| 10 | Eli Manning | 366 | 2004-2019 |
Stafford is now seventh on the all-time career passing touchdowns list with 423 and climbing. His 46-touchdown 2025 season jumped him past several Hall of Famers on the career list, one of the more remarkable storylines of an already remarkable season. Patrick Mahomes, still just 30 years old, is on pace to challenge Brady’s record if he maintains production through his mid-30s.
Key Factors When Betting the NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader
Understanding what drives passing touchdown totals helps bettors evaluate the market more accurately than simply backing the most talented quarterback.
Red zone pass rate is the single most important team-level input. A quarterback whose team passes from inside the 20-yard line at a high rate will accumulate touchdowns faster than a more efficient passer on a team that prefers to run at the goal line. The Cowboys, Lions, Bengals, and Rams have all ranked highly in red zone pass rate in recent seasons, which directly correlates with their quarterbacks appearing on this leaderboard consistently.
Touchdown-to-interception ratio matters for sustainability. A quarterback who throws 35 touchdowns and 6 interceptions is more likely to sustain volume than one who throws 38 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, because a high interception rate typically prompts coaching adjustments that reduce red zone passing opportunities or overall attempt volume. Stafford’s 2025 ratio of 46 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions was historically unusual and contributed to the Rams maintaining their pass-heavy philosophy all season.
Health across all 17 games is the biggest single variable. The four-decade database of passing touchdown leaders shows that the winner almost always played at least 16 of the 17 regular-season games. Burrow’s 2025 title loss despite being one of the two best quarterbacks in the league that season illustrates how completely this variable can override talent.
Receiver quality amplifies red zone production. A quarterback with two or three legitimate red zone targets will generate touchdowns more efficiently than one with only one elite option. Stafford had Adams, Nacua, Kupp, and Kyren Williams as red zone options in 2025. Chase had Chase Brown and Tee Higgins in addition to himself. Receiver depth in the red zone creates the conditions for consistent touchdown accumulation across a full season.
How to Bet on NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader
- Open your sportsbook account. The NFL passing touchdowns leader market is available at all major U.S. licensed sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365. You will need an account, identity verification completed, and funds deposited before placing a futures bet.
- Navigate to NFL Player Futures. From the main NFL menu, look for a section labeled “Player Futures,” “Season Stats Leaders,” or “Season Awards.” The passing touchdowns leader market typically appears alongside the passing yards, rushing yards, and receiving yards leader markets.
- Find the Most Passing Touchdowns market. It may be listed as “Passing TD Leader,” “Most Passing TDs,” or “Season Leader: Passing Touchdowns” depending on the sportsbook. Individual quarterback touchdown over/under totals will also be available nearby as a separate market type.
- Understand what you are betting. This is a winner-take-all futures wager that resolves after Week 18. Playoff touchdowns do not count. A tie between two quarterbacks is typically graded as a win for both, paying at full odds, though the specific tiebreaker rules vary by operator and are worth checking before placing.
- Compare prices across multiple sportsbooks. Passing touchdowns futures pricing varies meaningfully across platforms, especially early in the offseason. A quarterback priced at +500 at one book might be +650 at another. Spending two minutes comparing prices before placing any futures bet is the highest-return analytical action available to recreational bettors in this market.
- Place your bet and note the resolution timeline. Enter your stake, verify the odds on the bet slip, and confirm. The bet will be active from the moment you place it through Week 18 of the regular season, typically mid-January. Most sportsbooks offer cash-out on open futures positions if a player is injured or your analysis changes mid-season.
- Monitor the market through the season. Passing touchdown leader prices update weekly as the season progresses. If your quarterback gets off to a hot start in October and their odds shorten dramatically, you may have the option to cash out at a favorable live price rather than holding through Week 18. If they suffer an injury, knowing your cash-out option exists before you place the bet removes a potential point of uncertainty.
