2025 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Odds

We are in the golden age of the NFL, at least as far as quarterback play goes.

While we recently saw Tom Brady retire and we’ve already seen the likes of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and more already hang it up, the next generation of quarterbacks are here and they’re not going away for a long time.

Patrick Mahomes has already won three Super Bowls. Jalen Hurts has won a Super Bowl. Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy have been to a Super Bowl. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have come a game away from a Super Bowl.

The list goes on and on.

With so many quality quarterbacks around the NFL, one of the more intriguing and entertaining futures bets on the market is that of who will lead the NFL in touchdown passes for the upcoming season.

There are several good selections to choose from, we’ll break them all down and show what oddsmakers are projecting for the upcoming 2025 NFL season.

Before we get started, however, let’s take a quick look at the leaders from last season.

2024 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leaders

Player	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns
Joe Burrow (CIN)	4918	43
Baker Mayfield (TB)	4500	41
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	4172	41
Jared Goff (DET)	4629	37
Sam Darnold (MIN)	4319	35
Bo Nix (DEN)	3775	29
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)	3897	28
Josh Allen (BUF)	3731	28

The 2024 NFL season was the best season of Joe Burrow’s career, by a significant margin, as the former #1 overall pick bounced back from a season-ending elbow injury to throw for 43 touchdowns.

Burrow’s 43 touchdowns were the highest total in the NFL last season, with Baker Mayfield throwing a career high 41 touchdowns and Lamar Jackson having an absurd touchdown to interception ratio of 41 touchdowns and only four interceptions a season ago.

Jared Goff put up 37 touchdown passes in Ben Johnson’s dynamic offense that led the NFL in scoring a season ago. Bo Nix posted 29 touchdown passes in his rookie season, the second highest total for any rookie quarterback in NFL history.

How many of these quarterbacks are expected to carry over that strong play into 2025? Here’s a look at the odds to lead the league in passing touchdowns for the upcoming NFL season.

2025 NFL Most Passing Touchdowns Odds

The following quarterbacks are the favorites to record the most touchdown passes this season.

Player	Odds	2024 Passing TD’s
Joe Burrow (CIN)	+550	43
Baker Mayfield (TB)	+1000	41
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	+1200	41
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	+1200	26
Josh Allen (BUF)	+1400	28
Dak Prescott (DAL)	+1500	11
Jared Goff (DET)	+1500	37
Bo Nix (DEN)	+2250	29
Jordan Love (GB)	+2500	25
Caleb Williams (CHI)	+2500	20

Favorites to Lead NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2025

Joe Burrow (+550) – Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is the short favorite to once again lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and for good reason, the Bengals offense figures to be one of the best offenses in all of football, but also, their defense is expected to be amongst the worst, meaning you can expect a lot of shootouts involving Burrow and the Bengals.

One thing to consider with this bet is the usage of Chase Brown out of the Bengals backfield. If Brown is an option for Zac Taylor inside the 5 yard line, that could potentially eat into some of Burrow’s passing totals.

Baker Mayfield (+1000) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield will now play with his third different offensive coordinator since joining the Bucs two seasons ago, as 2024 OC Liam Coen departed to take the Jaguars job, a year after Dave Canales departed to take the Panthers job.

Mayfield, however, has more weapons on offense than he’s probably ever had as a pro. The latest weapon added to the Bucs arsenal is that of Emeka Egbuka, the latest of a long line of receivers to come to the NFL from Ohio State. Egbuka joins Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and last year’s surprising rookie Jalen McMillan to give Tampa one of the deepest WR corps in football. They also have Bucky Irving and Cade Otton on offense who gives Baker additional options to get touchdown passes.

Baker finished just two touchdown passes short of Burrow last year. Look for him to contend for the lead in touchdown passes this year, and I love the value of 10-1 on this futures bet.

Lamar Jackson (+1200) – Baltimore Ravens

Once upon a time Bill Polian said Lamar Jackson should be a wide receiver, and all Lamar did last year was put up 41 touchdowns and four picks. Oops.

Lamar’s previous high for passing touchdowns in a season was 36 in 2019 and up until last year he had never reached 30 touchdowns in a season. There could be some slight regression to the mean here. This bet feels a bit like fools gold.

Patrick Mahomes (+1200) – Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is entering 2025 after putting up just 26 touchdowns a season ago, his lowest total since becoming a starter. Mahomes threw for 5250 yards and 41 touchdowns just three years ago, will he reach those heights again this season? He has tantalizing value at +1200, but losing Rashee Rice for the first six games hurts this cause.

Josh Allen (+1400) – Buffalo Bills

We get it. Josh Allen sounds enticing because he’s Josh Allen.

However, remember to consider what a threat Josh is in the running game, and that his rushing touchdowns cannibalize the passing efforts. Also consider that Buffalo is due for some bad weather in the later weeks of the year, that drops scoring and leads to more running of the football.

If you’re looking for a fun Josh Allen touchdown bet, consider his odds to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns instead at +1300.

Sleepers to Lead the NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2025

Dak Prescott (+1500) – Dallas Cowboys

Will Brian Schottenheimer continue what Mike McCarthy had done for Dak Prescott in 2023 when Dak led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes on the season?

Despite a difficult 2024 season, Dak has hummed in this Cowboys offense before, and Dallas did go out and add the explosive George Pickens to complement CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson in the Cowboys passing game.

At 15-1, you could do a lot worse than a pizza bet on Dak to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns once again.

Jared Goff (+1500) – Detroit Lions

Jared Goff’s transformation in the Motor City has been a sight to behold, however, it remains to be seen if losing Ben Johnson will have a big impact on the Lions high-octane offense or not.

Should the Lions not miss a beat, Goff has enormous value with this bet given how explosive the Lions rushing game is and how dominant the Lions offensive line has been in recent seasons.

Jordan Love (+2500) – Green Bay Packers

Love had a down season in 2024 thanks to an injury that knocked him out of two games and kept him hobbled for several weeks after that. Not to mention, the Packers lost various wide receivers due to injury throughout the season, and when you don’t have a true #1 WR on the team that tends to lead to problems.

Well, Matt LaFleur went out in the 2025 NFL Draft and got Jordan Love a wide receiver they hope can take on that role of being the go to guy in the passing game, and the Packers QB just feels like he’s destined for a bounce back season.

Look out for Jordan Love in 2025.

Deep Sleepers to Lead the NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2025

Trevor Lawrence (+3000) – Jacksonville Jaguars

The whispers of Trevor Lawrence being the “B” word are starting to grow louder, and this is quietly the biggest season of the former Clemson star’s NFL career.

Lawrence has yet to show the play that merits the contract extension he already inked, in large part because the Jaguars are a terrible organization and have failed to give Lawrence the support he needs.

However, that’s why the team hired Liam Coen from Tampa Bay, and as mentioned above, Coen’s one season as Bucs’ offensive coordinator resulted in Baker Mayfield throwing for 41 touchdowns.

The Jags have Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter for Lawrence to throw the ball to and stranger things have happened, could Lawrence finally have his breakout season?

C.J. Stroud (+3300) – Houston Texans

The Texans may be without Joe Mixon for the entire season, leaving their running game in the hands of Nick Chubb and Dameon Pierce. Not ideal.

That means C.J. Stroud is going to throw and throw and throw, however, Stroud has a pretty underrated receiving corps highlighted by emerging star Nico Collins and a pair of rookies from Iowa State, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.

Additionally, they brought Christian Kirk over from the Jags and have Dalton Schultz at tight end, giving Stroud enough weapons to put him in position for a potential strong season and subsequent crack at leading the league in touchdowns.

Michael Penix Jr. (+5000) – Atlanta Falcons

Penix is listed at 50-1 to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and the man has a friggin’ rifle attached to his left arm.

On an offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, along with strong role players like Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III, I’m not saying it’s likely that Penix leads the league in touchdowns, but stranger things have certainly happened.

NFL Total Passing Touchdowns Leaders Since 2015

Year	Player	Total Passing TDs
2024	Joe Burrow (CIN)	43
2023	Dak Prescott (DAL)	36
2022	Patrick Mahomes (KC)	41
2021	Tom Brady (TB)	43
2020	Aaron Rodgers (GB)	48
2019	Lamar Jackson (BAL)	36
2018	Patrick Mahomes (KC)	50
2017	Russell Wilson (SEA)	34
2016	Aaron Rodgers (GB)	40
2015	Tom Brady (NE)	36

Always Shop Around For The Best Odds

Shopping for the best possible odds is imperative no matter what bet you’re making, but it’s especially important in the world of futures betting.

For example, if you bet on Burrow to lead the league in passing touchdowns at +420 odds at FanDuel because it was the first line you came across, you’d be doing yourself a big disservice, because you could have the same bet at DraftKings for +550.

A $100 wager would pay a difference of $130 if Burrow went on to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and you’d have left a nice profit on the table.

How To Bet on the NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader

Here’s how you can place a wager on who will lead the league in passing touchdowns for 2025:

1. Log into your sportsbook account.
2. Go to the BestOdds Odds Hub and click on the ‘NFL’ tab.
3. Go to the ‘Player Futures’ section.
4. Select the ‘Most Passing TDs’ option.
5. Pick the quarterback you want to bet on.
6. Place the wager using the bet slip shown on the right-hand side of your screen