Top 5 Favorites to Win the NL Pennant
Here is a look at the top contenders to win the National League pennant in 2026, with odds reflecting current mid-season pricing from FanDuel.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-110)
The Dodgers entered 2026 as +200 preseason favorites to win the National League pennant and have shortened all the way to -110 at the All-Star break, a price that implies a 50 percent probability of reaching the World Series and reflects the kind of first-half dominance that has become the franchise’s baseline expectation.
Los Angeles spent nearly the entire 2025 season at the top of this market, relinquishing it only briefly in the final week of the regular season before reclaiming the top spot, and the organizational infrastructure that produced back-to-back championships has carried forward into 2026 without meaningful disruption.
The combination of Shohei Ohtani’s two-way production, a rotation that goes four starters deep with genuine postseason-caliber arms, and a lineup with no obvious weak spots makes the Dodgers the standard against which every other NL contender is measured. The -110 price is steep, but the historical case for getting value from betting against a team that is genuinely the best in the sport is not as strong as it might appear.
Milwaukee Brewers (+500)
The Brewers have surged to second on the FanDuel NL pennant board at +500, one of the most striking market movements of the first half of the season. Milwaukee began the campaign with 14th-best 35-to-1 championship odds and has shortened dramatically, becoming one of the season’s most discussed success stories after posting one of the best records in the National League through the first half.
The Brewers’ core identity of elite run prevention, a competitive rotation anchored by Jacob Misiorowski, and disciplined offensive approaches has translated into winning percentages that have forced the market to take them seriously as a pennant contender rather than a division-race curiosity. Projection models give Milwaukee 100 projected wins with an 88 percent playoff probability, and the gap between their analytical profile and their preseason odds has been one of the cleaner market inefficiencies of the year.
Atlanta Braves (+550)
The Braves sit third on FanDuel’s NL pennant board at +550, having built the most commanding division lead in the National League East before a wave of injuries tested the organizational depth. Atlanta started quickly, entering June having won a league-best 40 games, before injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider complicated the picture, with the Phillies and Marlins moving within striking distance of the NL East lead in the weeks that followed.
Matt Olson has been the anchor of Atlanta’s offensive production, delivering an MVP-caliber first half that includes his 300th career home run. The Braves, featuring several weak lineup spots and an aging roster core, figure to be aggressive at the trade deadline, with a left field upgrade and shortstop depth among the organizational priorities before August arrives. At +550, the case rests on a full return to health for Acuña and Strider in the second half, which is a credible but not guaranteed scenario.
Philadelphia Phillies (+650)
The Phillies dug out of a disastrous 9-19 hole that cost manager Rob Thomson his job and have rallied to within two games of the NL East lead under interim manager Don Mattingly, one of the more dramatic mid-season organizational recoveries in recent memory. Everything in Philadelphia runs through the starting rotation, with Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesus Luzardo forming a three-headed combination that matches up well against almost any opponent in a postseason series.
The Phillies have reached the National League Championship Series in two of the past four seasons and have demonstrated a consistent ability to elevate their performance when the stakes increase in October. Dave Dombrowski is expected to be aggressive at the trade deadline, targeting a bat and a back-end reliever as the final pieces for what this front office considers a championship-caliber roster. At +650, the Phillies offer meaningful value for bettors who believe the rotation-first model translates as well in October as the results suggest it should.
Chicago Cubs (+1200)
The Cubs have been in the NL pennant mix through much of the first half, though a recent tailspin has been a stunning slide for a team that sat atop the power rankings just weeks ago. Since sweeping the Braves in late June, San Diego lost nine of eleven games in a stretch that included a three-game sweep by the Cubs, which speaks to Chicago’s ability to take advantage of opponents who falter during the summer grind.
The Cubs’ first-half performance has been anchored by one of the better home records in the National League and a rotation that, while not elite top-to-bottom, has been deeper and more reliable than most evaluators anticipated before the season. At +1200, the Cubs represent the longest-priced team with a genuinely credible path to the pennant, particularly if second-half health holds and the trade deadline adds a meaningful bat to a lineup that has been inconsistent against premium pitching.
Other NL Pennant Contenders
| Team | Odds to Win NL Pennant |
|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +3000 |
| Miami Marlins | +7500 |
| New York Mets | +4000 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +5000 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +6000 |
The Marlins have been one of the summer’s most surprising stories, going an MLB-best 20-6 in June and propelling their NL pennant odds from +17500 to +7500 after a sweep of the Athletics and a remarkable stretch of play anchored by shortstop Otto Lopez, who entered July hitting a major-league-best .346 on the season. The Marlins currently hold a Wild Card position and are 10.5 games back of the division leader, a deficit that is substantial but not insurmountable given the pace of their recent play.
The Padres have been the NL’s other notable mid-season momentum story, in the opposite direction. After sweeping Atlanta in late June to briefly enter the conversation as a genuine contender, San Diego lost nine of their next eleven games, with the brutal stretch including a three-game sweep by the Cubs and seven games against Los Angeles where they went 2-5. Their +3000 odds reflect a team that has the talent to rebound but has demonstrated a second-half fragility that the market has correctly identified as a structural concern.
Betting Outlook
The NL pennant race heading into the second half of 2026 is more genuinely contested than the preseason board suggested it would be. The Dodgers at -110 represent one of the most heavily priced pennant favorites in recent history, a number that reflects both their current standing and the probability that a team of this quality navigates the bracket without a significant upset.
Getting that price with the full season ahead is one thing. At the midpoint, with the Dodgers already demonstrating the expected dominance, the question for bettors is whether the implied probability genuinely reflects their odds of reaching the World Series from this position, or whether the Brewers, Braves, and Phillies collectively carry enough October upside to justify allocating capital at plus odds.
The most compelling second-half narrative is the Phillies. A team that was statistically competitive even during its disastrous start, has the pitching staff to go toe-to-toe with Los Angeles in a seven-game series, and will be adding to an already deep roster at the deadline presents a genuinely credible NL Championship Series path at +650.
The Milwaukee emergence at +500 deserves respect given the analytical foundation behind their record, though playoff inexperience at the organizational level introduces uncertainty that preseason contenders with deeper October histories do not carry. Among the longer shots, the Marlins’ surge is real but the gap between their current standing and a pennant is substantial enough to make +7500 a speculative position rather than a value bet.
