2025 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds

No stat defines today’s NFL better than passing yards.

Quarterbacks are no longer just asked to run the offense. They are expected to put up massive numbers through the air. With rules tilted toward passing and talent spread across the league, the race to lead the NFL in passing yards has become one of the most exciting storylines every season.

Heading into 2025, the competition is stacked. Patrick Mahomes remains the standard, but Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson are always in the mix. Then you have that second tier of quarterbacks with names like Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels and several others.

For bettors and fans, predicting who ends the season on top is not just about picking the biggest name. Offensive schemes, durability, and consistency over 17 games all play a huge role.

In this article, we will break down the top favorites, highlight potential sleepers, and take a look at what oddsmakers expect for the 2025 NFL season. But first, let’s check out last year’s passing leaders.

2024 NFL Passing Leaders

Player/Team	Passing Yards
Joe Burrow (CIN)	4,918
Jared Goff (DET)	4,629
Baker Mayfield (TB)	4,500
Geno Smith (SEA)	4,320
Sam Darnold (MIN)	4,319
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	4,172
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	3,928
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)	3,897
Justin Herbert (LAC)	3,870
Brock Purdy (SF)	3,864

Joe Burrow put forth the best season of his professional career with a sterling 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024. If healthy for a full 17 games, Burrow figures to always be a top contender to lead the NFL in passing yards.

Jared Goff threw for 4,629 yards a season ago, his highest season output since 2019 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Rams. This number is even more impressive when you consider how potent the Lions’ rushing offense was a season ago.

Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith and Sam Darnold rounded out the top five, showing that this bet often involves quarterbacks that aren’t as mainstream as the faces of the sport such as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

What is the NFL Most Passing Yards Bet?

This futures market is as straightforward as it gets.

Out of every quarterback in the league, the goal is to pick the one who will finish the 2025 season with the most passing yards.

Unlike award futures, where you not only need a player to perform at an elite level but also rely on voters to recognize it, this bet is decided strictly by the numbers.

If you back Joe Burrow to lead the league in passing yards and he finishes on top, you cash your ticket.

If you take someone like Jared Goff to lead the league in passing yards and he ends up tied with Burrow, you still win, although the payout would be split.

When it comes to futures wagers, this one is about as clear-cut as they come.

Favorites to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2025

Joe Burrow (+550) – Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow enters the 2025 NFL season fresh off the best year of his career.

In 2024, Burrow was nothing short of masterful, throwing for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions while completing better than 70 percent of his passes.

It is no surprise that Burrow opens as the short favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2025. He is an elite quarterback, plain and simple. When healthy, few passers in the league can match his production, and even fewer have the arsenal of weapons at his disposal.

Look a little deeper and the numbers point to why he is positioned for another huge season. Cincinnati does not like to run the football. In 2024, the Bengals tied the Raiders for 30th in rushing attempts and ranked second in pass attempts, trailing only the Browns. That trend is not likely to change with Chase Brown leading the backfield, as he fits best in a pass-first offense.

Another major factor is Cincinnati’s defense, which remains a liability to say the least. After handing out massive extensions to both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins this offseason, the roster balance has tilted, leaving the defense stretched thin. That likely means plenty of shootouts and plenty of situations where Burrow will be forced to air it out.

One cautionary note: the preseason favorite has not led the league in passing yards since Drew Brees in 2016, when he cashed as a +525 pick. However, history does suggest that the eventual leader usually comes from the top of the oddsboard. In eight of the last 10 seasons, the passing yards leader has started the year inside the top five in odds, including Burrow himself last year, when he cashed at +850 after entering with the fifth-shortest price.

All of this makes Burrow a justifiable favorite, but it might be worth keeping an eye on the names right behind him.

Dak Prescott (+900) – Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott entered the 2024 season with sky-high expectations to finally take the next leap and carry the Cowboys to their first NFC Championship appearance since Bill Clinton was in office, back when cell phones and the internet were still novelties. 

Instead, in typical Cowboys fashion, Prescott stumbled out of the gate before an injury ended his season for good. He was limited to just eight games, finishing with just under 2,000 passing yards.

Now healthy again, Prescott is aiming to return to his 2023 form, when he led the NFL in passing touchdowns and ranked third in passing yards, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa (4,624) and Jared Goff (4,575). Brian Schottenheimer, who served as his offensive coordinator during that 2023 breakout, now takes over as Dallas’ head coach heading into 2025.

If Prescott can stay on the field for all 17 games, the pieces are in place for another big statistical season. Add in a shaky running game that should push the Cowboys to rely even more heavily on the pass, and Prescott’s ceiling looks as high as ever.

Patrick Mahomes (+1000) – Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes last led the NFL in passing yards in 2022, when he threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns on the way to winning Super Bowl LVII over the Eagles. Over the last two seasons, however, his yardage totals have dipped, with his 2024 campaign marking his lowest passing output since becoming the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018.

It feels like the best quarterback in the game is due for a bounce-back year in 2025. Still, the Chiefs’ passing attack enters the season under some strain, as Rashee Rice will miss the first six games due to suspension.

With Andy Reid and Travis Kelce inching closer to retirement, Kansas City may be approaching its own version of “The Last Dance.” At 10-1 odds, though, you could do far worse than betting on Mahomes to light up the league once again.

Jared Goff (+1400) – Detroit Lions

Jared Goff has really found a home in the Motor City since the Rams traded him for Matthew Stafford.

He has come close to winning a passing yards title in each of his last two seasons in Detroit, finishing second overall in both 2022 and 2023. Will the third year be the charm for Goff?

The big question the Lions face entering 2025 is how much the offense will be affected by Ben Johnson moving on to take the Bears’ head coaching job. The same weapons remain intact for Detroit, and if the coaching change does not disrupt things too severely, Goff’s 15-1 odds are extremely tempting.

Brock Purdy (+1500) – San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers could not have had a worse season in 2024, as injuries ravaged the roster and left them limping to a 6-11 finish just one year after losing a heartbreaker in the Super Bowl.

Despite that disastrous campaign, Brock Purdy and the 49ers are well-positioned to bounce back in 2025.

San Francisco benefits from a fourth-place schedule and will face both the AFC South and NFC South in non-divisional play. Christian McCaffrey is back and reportedly healthy, which is a massive boost. While the team still has injuries to manage in the wide receiving corps, most notably to top target Brandon Aiyuk, all of those players are expected to return at some point.

That sets Purdy up with the opportunity to return to his 2023 form, when he threw for 4,280 yards and finished fifth in the passing yards race.

Sleepers to Capture the 2025 NFL Passing Yards Title

Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1600)

Baker Mayfield enters his third season with the Buccaneers coming off the best year of his career, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns.

The challenge for Mayfield in 2025 will be adjusting to his third offensive coordinator in as many years. While constant change has not slowed him down yet, the loss of Liam Coen to the Jaguars raises questions about how the offense will look this season.

The good news for Mayfield is that he has the strongest supporting cast of his career. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are back, Jalen McMillan is coming off an impressive rookie campaign, and the Buccaneers added Emeka Egkuba from the wide receiver factory better known as Ohio State University.

With this arsenal of weapons, Mayfield is set up for another big year and has tantalizing 16-1 odds to lead the NFL in passing.

C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans (+1600)

After a blistering start to his professional career in 2023, C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense came back to Earth in 2024. The biggest issues were inconsistent play from the offensive line and a wave of injuries at wide receiver. Stefon Diggs missed the entire year with an ACL tear, Nico Collins was sidelined for a stretch with a hamstring injury, and Tank Dell suffered a gruesome leg injury late in the season that further thinned the depth chart.

Diggs has since left in free agency, but Collins is healthy again. The Texans also addressed their passing game in the draft, bringing in rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, while adding Christian Kirk in free agency. On the ground, the backfield is led by Nick Chubb, although his health and effectiveness remain major concerns.

All of this points to Stroud airing the ball out once again in 2025. If the offensive line holds up, he has the talent and weapons to deliver another strong showing in the passing yards race.

Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills (+2000)

The reigning NFL MVP enters the 2025 season with 20-1 odds to lead the league in passing yards. At first glance, that might look like a value play, but Josh Allen has never truly been a serious threat in this particular race.

His best finish came in 2023, when he placed fourth with 4,306 passing yards. Allen is a quarterback who relies heavily on his legs to extend drives, plays in a cold-weather city where late-season games often bring challenging conditions, and has a wide receiver group that fits Buffalo’s offensive identity but does not necessarily lend itself to piling up passing yards.

That said, he is still Josh Allen, and it would not be shocking if he put together a monster season through the air at some point. At 20-1, the payoff is tempting, but the odds reflect the reality: Allen is not the most reliable pick in the passing yards market.

Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars (+2250)

I touched on the impact Liam Coen had on Baker Mayfield a season ago, and now Coen has moved on to Duval County for his next reclamation project: former Clemson star and 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.

The Jaguars appear dangerously close to derailing Lawrence’s career, which is why they brought in Coen to serve as the quarterback whisperer and get him back on track. Lawrence does have some explosive weapons in the passing game, most notably the electrifying Brian Thomas Jr. and 2025 No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter.

Will that be enough for him to put up the numbers needed to contend for a passing yards title? Probably not. Still, given the turnaround Coen sparked with Mayfield last season, it would be unwise to completely rule Lawrence out.

Super Sleepers to Win the 2025 NFL Passing Title

Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins (+2500)

Everyone knows Tua Tagovailoa is one bad hit away from potentially ending up as a morning panelist on a low-rated FS1 talk show. That said, when he has been able to stay on the field, it is hard to deny how explosive Miami’s offense can be with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle bringing unmatched speed to the passing game.

The one season where Tua stayed healthy from start to finish, he led the entire NFL in passing with 4,624 yards.

I would not go terribly heavy on this wager, but it certainly feels worthy of a pizza bet if Tua can manage to stay upright for another full season.

Michael Penix Jr. – Atlanta Falcons (+2800)

Yes, the Falcons have Bijan Robinson in the backfield, and yes, there are still plenty of unknowns about their 2024 eighth overall pick. What is certain, though, is that Michael Penix Jr. brings a friggin’ rifle of an arm and the ability to rack up yards in a hurry, just as he showed during his college career at Indiana and Washington.

Penix enters 2025 as the unquestioned starter in Atlanta and benefits from playing in what might be the weakest division in football. Add in a defense that is far from elite, and the Falcons are likely to find themselves in plenty of shootouts or trailing situations that will require Penix to throw early and often.

NFL Passing Title Winners Since 2015

Year	Player	Passing Yards	Team
2024	Joe Burrow	4,918	Bengals
2023	Tua Tagovailoa	4,624	Dolphins
2022	Patrick Mahomes	5,250	Chiefs
2021	Tom Brady	5,316	Buccaneers
2020	Deshaun Watson	4,823	Texans
2019	Jameis Winston	5,109	Buccaneers
2018	Ben Roethlisberger	5,129	Steelers
2017	Tom Brady	4,577	Patriots
2016	Drew Brees	5,208	Saints
2015	Drew Brees	4,870	Saints

Always Shop Around

While odds shopping is important for all forms of sports betting, it’s even more important in regards to futures betting.

If you are set to plunk down your hard earned cash on an NFL Passing Yards Leader bet, make sure you do your research before settling on the sportsbook where you’re going to make that wager.

For example, you can bet Baker Mayfield at +1200 at DraftKings, but wouldn’t it make more sense to bet him at +1400 on FanDuel? A $100 wager would only pay $1300 at DraftKings, but you would win $1500 at FanDuel. That’s a sizable difference and is really noticeable with futures bets.

So shop around for your best odds and get every edge you can over the sportsbooks. Lord knows they already get every edge they can over their patrons.

How to Bet on Most Passing Yards

To bet in this department, follow this step-by-step guide:

1. Go to your preferred sportsbook and log into your account.
2. Select the ‘NFL Odds’ tab option amongst the menu of sports available.
3. Go to the ‘Player Futures’ submenu.
4. Click on ‘Most Passing Yards.’
5. Pick your wager, review it and place it in the bet-slip window.