Los Angeles Dodgers (-2000)
The two-time defending champions lead the majors with 61 wins heading into the All-Star break and sit 12.5 games clear of the rest of the NL West. Projection models now give the Dodgers a 99 percent playoff probability with a pace toward 102 wins. Despite dealing with rotation injuries that would have derailed most franchises, Los Angeles has leaned on its extraordinary depth and kept rolling. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and one of the game’s best bullpens have made the Dodgers a near-certainty for October, and the -2000 price reflects exactly that level of confidence from the market.
New York Yankees (-400)
The Yankees’ injured list includes All-Star Game nods among Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodón, and the team has still managed to hold the second-best record in the American League heading into the break. Projection models give New York a 95 percent playoff probability. Judge’s third AL MVP season has carried this roster through a genuinely difficult stretch, and the trade deadline presents Dave Stearns with an opportunity to add a bat and at least one rotation piece before the second half gets fully underway. The Yankees remain the most credible American League challenger to whoever emerges from the NL.
Philadelphia Phillies (-265)
The Phillies have dug out of a 9-19 hole that cost manager Rob Thomson his job and now sit two games out of the NL East lead under interim manager Don Mattingly. Everything in Philadelphia runs through the starting rotation. Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesus Luzardo form a combination that matches up well against almost any postseason opponent, and Dave Dombrowski is expected to be aggressive at the trade deadline, with a bat and a back-end reliever on his shopping list. A team that has turned a disastrous start into a genuine division contender has earned its place among the surest playoff bets in the National League.
Atlanta Braves (-340)
After a disappointing 2025 season where Atlanta won only 76 games and saw its impressive seven-year run of playoff berths end, the Braves started quickly, entering June having won a league-best 40 games. Injuries to the lineup (Ronald Acuña Jr., hamstring) and rotation (Spencer Strider, elbow) have tested depth since then, as the Phillies and Marlins have moved within striking distance of the NL East lead. Matt Olson is delivering one of the most productive offensive first halves in the league, and Atlanta’s organizational depth has kept the team competitive despite the injury attrition. The Braves have every incentive to be buyers at the deadline.
New York Mets (-230)
The Mets have been one of the steadier presences in the NL East, sitting comfortably inside the playoff picture heading into the break. New York’s roster construction has balanced star power at the top of the lineup with improved pitching depth, and the front office has demonstrated a willingness to add talent at the deadline when the team is positioned to make a run. The Mets began the season as one of the top World Series contenders at 13-1 but have lengthened considerably amid an inconsistent first half. The playoff odds, however, reflect a team that remains on course for the postseason regardless of how the championship picture has evolved.
Other Contenders: Current Odds to Make the 2026 MLB Playoffs
The table below reflects current mid-season pricing from DraftKings and captures the bubble teams whose second-half performance will determine the final playoff field.
| Team | Make Playoffs | Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | -220 | +175 |
| Houston Astros | -175 | +145 |
| Chicago Cubs | -130 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +115 | -135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +115 | -135 |
| Seattle Mariners | +115 | -135 |
| Detroit Tigers | +135 | -165 |
| Kansas City Royals | +115 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins | +120 | -140 |
| Boston Red Sox | +120 | -100 |
| San Diego Padres | -145 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants | +190 | -240 |
| Cleveland Guardians | -110 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers | +190 | -240 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +700 | -1100 |
| Colorado Rockies | +2500 | -1000 |
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the genuinely stunning stories of the first half, sitting with the best record in the American League and setting the pace in a division that was projected to be a Yankees runaway. Their +115 odds to make the playoffs reflect a lingering skepticism about their ability to sustain that pace through September, which the franchise itself is keenly aware of given what happened in each of the past two second halves.
The Boston Red Sox stood 31-44 on June 21 with just an 8.4 percent playoff probability before going 15-4, including 14-2 after June 25, to storm back into contention. Boston’s staff owns a 3.59 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 3.89 xFIP across 832 innings, and its run differential supports a record roughly four wins better than the actual standings reflect. At +120, the Red Sox represent one of the more compelling second-half narratives on the bubble.
The Cleveland Guardians at -110 sit right at the edge of the market’s conviction threshold, essentially a coin flip according to the pricing, and their second-half schedule will determine whether they hold a Wild Card spot or fall back into the lottery of teams chasing October from behind.
