NBA Best Player Props Today – April 28, 2025

The NBA Playoffs feature two games tonight. We’ve provided player prop picks below with analysis.

Cleveland, the top seed in the East, has a chance to sweep No. 8 Miami tonight, while No. 7 Golden State (leads 2-1) faces No. 2 Houston with Jimmy Butler potentially returning to the lineup.

Sunday’s NBA Playoff action was filled with plenty of drama as all four winners extended their leads to 3-1.

New York, the No. 3 seed in the East, defeated No. 6 Detroit 94-93 to take a 3-1 lead. A controversial no-call at the end of regulation on a three-point attempt brought plenty of scrutiny from across the league.

The Timberwolves (No. 6) upset the third-seed Lakers 116-113 in a back-and-forth nail-biter. It was widely expected that Los Angeles would advance with Lebron James playing alongside superstar Luka Doncic.

Defending Champion Boston (No. 2) held off No. 7 Orlando 107-98, and Indiana (No. 4) routed fifth-seed Milwaukee 129-103. 

Bucks point guard Damian Lillard is feared to have suffered a season-ending achilles injury. It’s an extremely unfortunate situation, especially after the nine-time All-Star recently returned from deep vein thrombosis, which sidelined him for a month.

Our player prop tips feature research for each contest: Tyler Herro (MIA vs. CLE, 7:30 p.m. ET) and Amen Thompson (HOU at GS, 10:00 p.m. ET).

Remember to wager responsibly and keep a close eye on your bankroll.

Note: All odds were correct at the time of writing.

Tyler Herro over 23.5 points (-120) at DraftKings

Obviously, this series is practically over with the Cavs leading 3-0, which means the Heat will be fighting for their lives in this do-or-die scenario.

Herro told reporters after the Game 3 loss, “We’re not going down 4-0,” which means he’ll likely come out firing.

The leading scorer for Miami this season averaged 23.9 points per game during the regular season.

In his past 10 games, since the start of April, which includes the regular season, play-in tournament and round one of the playoffs, the Kentucky product has averaged 26.7 points per game.

During that span, he’s eclipsed the 23.5-point mark 60% of the time.

In his past five games, which are considered the postseason (play-in and first round), he’s averaged 27 points per game. He’s hit over 23.5 points in 60% of these games as well (three-of-five).

Dating back to last season, in elimination games, Herro has cleared this line in four of five (80%) contests, averaging 26.4 points per game. 

Throughout that period, he’s been extremely aggressive with an average of 20.6 field goal attempts per game. Since the play-in this year, he’s averaged 19 field goal attempts per game.

The 25-year-old is due for a bounce-back after coming off a 13-point performance (played 37 minutes) in which he went 5-for-13 from the field in Game 3 during a 124-87 blowout loss to Cleveland on Saturday.

His 13 points were his fewest since March 21.

Herro has averaged 24.6 points per game this season against the Cavs on five occasions. He’s scored 24 or more points twice, where he exploded for 33 and 34 points. In two of the three games when he went under, he came close with 21 and 22 points.

With it being an elimination game tonight, I like his chances of scoring 24 or more.

Most sportsbooks feature the Heat as 8.5-point underdogs. If oddsmakers are accurate and the game is competitive, Herro should play at least 37 minutes (the minimum he’s played this postseason) but probably into the 40s.

Even in the 37-point loss in Game 3, he played 37 minutes, which is a good sign if Miami is heavily defeated.

DraftKings’ odds of -120 for Herro to score over 23.5 points are a bargain, with most other books featuring his line at 24.5 points at similar odds.

Odds Comparison for Herro over 23.5 points

Sportsbook	Points Line (Over)	Odds
DraftKings	23.5	-120
FanDuel	24.5	-106
Caesars	24.5	-114
bet365	24.5	-115
BetMGM	24.5	-115
Hard Rock Bet	24.5	-115
Fliff	24.5	-120

Amen Thompson over 3.5 assists (-125) at DraftKings

Houston’s 2023 No. 4 overall pick has been dishing out dimes, beating the 3.5-assist line in 9 of his past 10 games (90%).

Throughout that period, he’s averaged 5.4 assists per game.

Thompson’s assists: Last 10 games

• 4 (at GS)
• 3 (vs. GS)
• 6 (vs. GS)
• 6 (vs. DEN)
• 6 (at GS)
• 6 (vs. OKC)
• 5 (vs. UTAH)
• 4 (at LAL)
• 9 (at PHX)
• 5 (vs. UTAH)

Thompson was nearly 10-for-10 but recorded just 23 minutes in the 109-94 blowout win in Game 2 against Golden State and finished one away with three assists.

He’ll likely play much more tonight, with Jimmy Butler being listed as questionable, but his props are featured on sportsbooks, indicating he’s actually probable. 

The 22-year-old Thompson has been collecting assist opportunities like infinity stones. In his past three games, he’s recorded 11, 6 and 13 potential assists against the Warriors.

Thompson is Houston’s starting small forward and does get minutes at the point guard position. He’s listed as No. 2 on the Rockets’ depth chart at point guard behind Fred VanVleet.

Dating back to his past 20 games, he’s recorded more than 3.5 assists 75% of the time.

Another factor that helps the Pine Crest High School (Fort Lauderdale, FL) product is Houston ranking first in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game (14.7).

Thompson’s opponent, Golden State, allowed the ninth-most assists per game on average to opposing squads during the regular season (25.6).

Against opposing small forwards, the Warriors allowed 3.84 assists per game, which ranks them 12th. 

Throughout the regular season, Thompson averaged 3.8 assists per game.

Against Golden State this season, Thompson beat the 3.5 assist mark in five of eight games (62.5%) and averaged 3.88 assists per outing.

Oddsmakers at most operators showcase the Warriors as 3.5-point favorites, indicating a back-and-forth contest that could come down to the wire. 

If they’re correct, Thompson should see the hardwood for north of 30 minutes. He played 33 and 37 minutes in Games 1 and 3.

DraftKings’ odds of -125 for the 6-foot-7 rising star to record over 3.5 assists are an excellent price, with many other books listing him juiced at -140 or worse. Fliff even has him at -155 (60.78% implied odds).

Odds Comparison for Thompson over 3.5 assists

Sportsbook	Assists Line (Over)	Odds
DraftKings	3.5	-125
Caesars	3.5	-133
BetMGM	3.5	-135
FanDuel	3.5	-138
Hard Rock Bet	3.5	-140
bet365	3.5	-140
Fliff	3.5	-155