2026 NFL Rushing Touchdown Leader Odds

Behind them, Jahmyr Gibbs is primed for a genuine breakout season with David Montgomery gone from Detroit. And Bijan Robinson, whom some analysts believe could be the most talented runner of his generation, is being handed a full feature-back workload with the Falcons.

That is a deeper, more talented field of touchdown-scoring backs than we have seen in years. And from a betting standpoint, that richness is exactly what makes this market so compelling.

The 2026-27 NFL season kicks off in September with the regular season running through January. Sportsbooks have already released early rushing touchdown futures betting odds, and the early markets reveal what the books think: Taylor is the man to beat, Henry remains a live threat, and several longer-shot backs offer genuine value for bettors willing to look past the two headline names.

This guide breaks down everything you need to know, from how the market works, to who the historical giants of the category are, to what the current betting lines are saying about the 2026-27 season.

Best Sportsbooks for NFL Rushing Touchdown Leader

What Is the NFL Most Rushing Touchdowns Bet?

The NFL Most Rushing Touchdowns bet is a season-long futures wager. You are not betting on how many touchdowns a player will score in a single game or on a weekly prop. You are backing a player to finish the entire regular season with more rushing touchdowns than every other player in the league.

It is a winner-take-all market. If the player you back leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns at the end of Week 18, your bet wins. If they finish second, it does not matter by how much — you lose.

Because it is a futures bet, thesebetting odds are available from the moment sportsbooks open their boards, which typically happens within weeks of the previous season ending. Odds shift throughout the offseason as rosters change, injuries emerge, training camp reports filter in, and the broader betting public puts money on their favorites.

By the time the season actually kicks off, the market is significantly more efficient than it was in the spring. That means the best odds — and often the best value — are found in the offseason window, before the field has had time to sharpen lines.

The bet resolves after the final game of the regular season, Week 18. Playoff touchdowns do not count. In the event of a tie, most sportsbooks grade all tied players as winners and pay out at full odds. Rules vary by book, so it is always worth checking the fine print before placing a bet.

Favorites To Lead NFL in Rushing Touchdowns in 2026

The 2026-27 rushing touchdown futures market opened with Jonathan Taylor as the favorite at most major sportsbooks, reflecting his back-to-back status as the league’s top touchdown scorer at his position. Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs both feature prominently in early boards, while Bijan Robinson’s expanded Falcons workload has attracted significant attention from the analytical community.

The following lines represent the best available odds as reported across major sportsbooks in June 2026. These odds will fluctuate throughout the offseason and into the season. Always verify current pricing before placing a bet.

Odds sourced from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars as of June 2026. Lines subject to change. Always verify current odds at your sportsbook before wagering.

Jonathan Taylor — The Back-to-Back Champion

Taylor enters 2026 as the defending champion in every meaningful sense of the term. He led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns in 2025, running on what was one of the most run-dominant offenses in the league. The Colts ranked 27th in pass rate over expectation from inside the five-yard line, a remarkable figure that tells you exactly how often Indianapolis chose to hand the ball to Taylor rather than throw it near the goal line. He finished with 323 carries, 1,585 rushing yards, and a 73.1 percent carry share, the best in the league. He also finished behind only Henry in carries from inside the five-yard line.

The question heading into 2026 is whether that level of volume is sustainable. Taylor has led the NFL in rushing touchdowns twice now — in 2021 and 2025 — but in the four seasons between and around those two peaks, he never eclipsed 11 rushing scores. That pattern is not an argument against Taylor.

It is a reminder of how much variance exists in this market, and of the degree to which the Colts’ offensive performance in 2025 was historically anomalous. The team averaged 32.1 points per game through the first 10 weeks before a stunning second-half collapse saw them lose nine of their final ten games.

Even so, the underlying structural case for Taylor in 2026 is strong. He has no real competition for carries, faces a team that is analytically committed to running the ball near the goal line, and is in the prime of his career. The Colts’ schedule is reportedly easier in 2026 than it was last season. At +400, he is priced as the market favorite, but not prohibitively so.

Jahmyr Gibbs — The New Detroit Feature Back

Gibbs may be the most interesting name on this board. He has reached double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, and in the last two years combined, he has scored 29 rushing touchdowns, second only to Henry’s 32 over that same stretch. For 2026, the situation has changed dramatically in his favor: David Montgomery is gone, relocated to Detroit’s backfield rival, and head coach Dan Campbell publicly declared Gibbs the team’s bell-cow back during OTAs.

The Lions have been one of the most prolific rushing touchdown teams in the NFL over the last three years, scoring 27 rushing TDs in 2023, 29 in 2024, and 21 in 2025.

With Gibbs absorbing the carries that Montgomery previously contributed near the goal line, his touchdown ceiling rises materially. At +550 on FanDuel, he represents arguably the strongest value on the board — a proven touchdown scorer in the ideal structural position.

Derrick Henry — Father Time’s Most Famous Opponent

Henry is 32 years old. He entered the league in 2016 with 307 regular-season carries last season alone, pushing his career regular-season total past 2,800 touches. By any conventional measure of running back aging, he should be declining. He is not.

In 2025, Henry produced 1,595 rushing yards at 5.2 yards per carry, scored 16 rushing touchdowns, and did it against an average of 7.84 defenders in the box per rush, the highest number of any back in the NFL, according to Sumer Sports. He ran through more stacked boxes than anyone, and he still averaged more than five yards per attempt. He is now the fourth-leading touchdown scorer in NFL history, having passed Walter Payton on the career rushing touchdowns list during the 2025 season.

The structural case for Henry improving on 16 touchdowns in 2026 is real. Lamar Jackson missed four games in 2025 due to injury. With a healthy Jackson commanding defensive attention through the air and an improved Ravens offensive line, Henry could see cleaner running lanes and more red-zone opportunities than he did a season ago. At +600, he is the most fascinating value play on the board — a player priced as a slight underdog to Gibbs despite having scored 16 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.

Bijan Robinson — The Talent Case

If this market were based purely on talent assessments, Robinson might be the favorite. The analytics community has been effusive about his ability, and his 2025 season included 2,298 total scrimmage yards, 79 receptions for 820 yards, and elite explosive run production.

That was among the best multi-dimensional performances by a running back in recent memory. The Falcons have leaned into him fully, and with uncertainty at the quarterback position pushing the offense to rely on Robinson even more heavily, his volume could reach the kind of 300-plus touch number that historically produces top-five rushing touchdown seasons.

The complication is that Robinson’s touchdown production has not yet matched his overall volume and efficiency. A back who touches the ball 300 times but scores less frequently than the market expects is a difficult bet for this specific market. At +700, he is a reasonable flier for bettors who believe the touchdowns are about to follow his yards.

2025 NFL Rushing Touchdown Leaders

Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry ran away from the rest of the field in 2025. The chart below shows the full top-ten finishers for the 2025-26 NFL regular season. Josh Allen’s presence at third is a reminder that quarterback rushing has become an increasingly significant factor in this market, but the rules typically focus on all players, not just running backs, meaning Allen’s 14 rushing scores are fully legitimate competition for backs on the board.

A few storylines from 2025 worth noting for 2026 context. James Cook III led the entire NFL in rushing yards (1,621) but finished with only 12 touchdowns, a reminder that volume does not always translate directly to red-zone production.

Jacobs was remarkable in the second half of the season, scoring 14 of his 13 touchdowns after Week 7 as the Packers leaned heavily on their free-agent acquisition. Gibbs’ 13 rushing scores came while sharing carries with David Montgomery — that shared role is now gone.

All-Time Single-Season NFL Rushing TD Leaders

The benchmark for this bet has always been LaDainian Tomlinson’s 28 rushing touchdowns in 2006. That record has stood for two decades and shows no signs of falling. What has changed is the competitive baseline. The 2021 Jonathan Taylor season (18 rushing TDs), the 2024 Derrick Henry season (16 rushing TDs with Baltimore), and the 2025 Taylor season (18 rushing TDs again) all represent the modern upper tier.

Winning the title with 13 or 14 touchdowns has happened. But the field is trending upward, and bettors who model this market on the league-leading totals from a decade ago will systematically undershoot the likely range.

One of the most important things the table above illustrates is that modern NFL rushing touchdown leaders are competing on a different level than the early 2010s, when the league-leader often won with 13 or 14.

The era of Tomlinson-style dominance (28 TDs) is almost certainly over. The game is too pass-heavy at the league level for any back to command the number of goal-line carries Tomlinson received. But winning totals in the 15-to-18 range now appear to be the realistic ceiling for any back in contention.

How to Line Shop for NFL Rushing Touchdown Odds

Line shopping is the single most valuable habit a sports bettor can build, and it is nowhere more impactful than in the futures markets. A player priced at +400 at DraftKings might be +500 at FanDuel and +450 at BetMGM. A $100 bettor who takes the +400 instead of finding the +500 is leaving $100 of potential profit on the table — on a single bet that might not settle for six months.

Here is a practical example using the current board. In recent prior seasons, Henry was listed at +425 at Caesars while FanDuel had him at +550 on the same day. That is a $125 difference in profit on a $100 bet. Multiply that across ten futures bets over the course of a season, and the bettor who consistently shops for best lines will significantly outperform the one who simply bets wherever they have an account.

The mechanics of line shopping are simple. Before placing any futures bet, pull up the market at every sportsbook you have an account at and compare the odds for your target player. The differences in futures markets tend to be larger in the offseason, when sportsbook pricing models disagree most and sharp money has not yet fully aligned the market. Once the season begins, these discrepancies tend to close.

Practical tips for line shopping rushing TD futures:

Open three or four accounts across different sportsbooks. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars are the four most liquid NFL futures markets in the U.S. legal betting landscape. Having an active account at all four means you can compare prices in under two minutes before placing any bet.

Check your book’s rules on ties. Some sportsbooks pay out all tied players in futures markets. Others have specific tiebreaker rules. In a market as competitive as rushing touchdowns, where ties at the top of the leaderboard are not unusual, this rule difference can be the difference between a winning and losing bet.

Move early on long shots. The most competitive pricing on longer-odds players in futures markets tends to be available earliest, before public money has had a chance to push those lines in. A back priced at +1600 in June may be +900 by August if training camp reports are positive.

Do not ignore position limits. Sportsbooks frequently limit the maximum bet on individual futures markets. If you identify a strong value bet, do not assume you can place $500 on it at every book. Check limits before counting on that strategy.

How to Bet on the NFL Rushing TDs Leader

Betting on the NFL rushing touchdowns leader is a season-long commitment, but the process of placing the bet itself is straightforward at any major licensed U.S. sportsbook.

1. Log in to your sportsbook. Any of the major U.S. licensed operators carry this market. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 all post rushing touchdown futures for the upcoming season.
2. Navigate to NFL futures. From the main NFL menu, look for a tab labeled “Player Futures” or “Season Awards.” Rushing touchdowns leader will typically appear alongside other season-long player markets like passing yards leader or receiving yards leader.
3. Find the Most Rushing TDs market. It may also be labeled “Rushing TD Leader,” “Most Rushing Touchdowns,” or “Season Rushing TDs Leader” depending on the platform.
4. Compare the odds for your target player across books. Before finalizing anything, do a quick price check at a second sportsbook to make sure you are getting the best available price. The few minutes this takes is worth it on a bet that may not settle until January.
5. Check the rules for ties. Rushing touchdown ties at the top of the leaderboard happen more often than you might expect. Know your book’s policy before betting.
6. Place your bet on the bet slip. Enter your stake, confirm the odds displayed, and submit. Most sportsbooks will show your potential payout before confirmation.
7. Monitor the market throughout the season. Futures odds update weekly as player performances emerge. If your player gets hurt early in the season, many sportsbooks allow you to cash out open futures positions at a live price. This is worth knowing before you place the bet.

One final note. The rushing touchdowns leader market is a futures bet, which means you are tying up your stake until the end of the season. Only wager what you are comfortable having unavailable for other betting purposes until at least January. Many experienced futures bettors keep futures bets as a relatively small portion of their overall bankroll for exactly this reason — the long timeline introduces more variance, and the opportunity cost of tying up funds across a 20-plus-week season is real.