2026 MLB American League MVP Betting Odds

But there are other intriguing candidates, such as Bobby Witt Jr and Cal Raleigh. Who will win the AL MVP? Will anyone beat out Judge? Or will the Yankees slugger continue to dominate this award?

Keep reading for more on what to watch for and a look at some of the leading contenders.

Note: Odds were correct as of Aug. 3, 2026.

Best Sportsbooks for American League MVP Betting

How is the Winner Decided?

The American League Most Valuable Player is decided by ballot, with members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America placing their votes right before the beginning of the playoffs.

The decision is based on a weighted points system, where writers are looking at a player’s production and considering their team impact compared to others in the AL. 

MLB AL MVP Betting Odds (Updated Aug 3, 2026)

As the 2026 MLB season begins, the American League MVP race is once again headlined by one of baseball’s biggest stars. According to FanDuel odds and comparable market pricing, the AL field features a clear favorite but also a deep group of challengers capable of making a run at the award.

Unlike the National League, where one player has separated from the pack, the AL race appears more competitive, with several elite hitters positioned within striking distance depending on performance and team success.

Top AL MVP Contenders

Here are the leading contenders for the award heading into the final two months of the 2026 season, with odds from FanDuel and BetMGM as of early August. The AL MVP race has narrowed considerably from a three-way battle to what ESPN now describes as a two-man race, with Yordan Alvarez extending his lead and Bobby Witt Jr. falling back due to a back injury.

Yordan Alvarez (-360 FanDuel / -350 ESPN consensus)

Alvarez has extended his AL MVP lead dramatically and is now the overwhelming favorite across all major books. As of July 29, he is leading the American League in batting average (.325), home runs (35), hits (126), RBIs (80), on-base percentage (.435), slugging percentage (.647), and OPS (1.082), the most comprehensive statistical leadership by any AL position player since Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 Triple Crown campaign.

Alvarez is chasing exactly that — the first Triple Crown in the American League in 14 years — and the combination of his production across every major offensive category has pushed his implied probability at BetMGM to over 65 percent. The single structural obstacle that limited his candidacy earlier in the season, the Astros’ poor record, has partially resolved, with Houston having climbed to 58-55 and back into Wild Card contention.

A team now in playoff position combined with the most dominant individual offensive numbers in the league makes his -360 price the most defensible chalk on either MVP board.

Junior Caminero (+440 FanDuel / +500 ESPN consensus)

Caminero remains the only player the market considers a genuine challenger, sitting at +440 on FanDuel and +500 in ESPN’s consensus tracking. The Tampa Bay Rays third baseman has posted a .915 OPS with 29 home runs and a 3.5 fWAR while serving as the engine of the AL East-leading Rays, whose 65-46 record gives his candidacy the team-success backdrop that Alvarez has been missing for much of the season.

The case for Caminero is straightforward: if voters apply the traditional team-success premium that has historically determined close AL MVP races, and the Rays win the AL East division title, the gap between Caminero’s production and Alvarez’s may not be sufficient to overcome the narrative advantage of playing for the conference’s best team. His +440 price implies approximately 18 percent probability and remains the most interesting contrarian position on the board.

Ben Rice (+1200 FanDuel)

Rice has emerged as the third name on the AL board at +1200 after mashing his way to one of the best OPS figures in the American League while carrying the Yankees through Aaron Judge’s absence. His production has been genuinely remarkable, and the Yankees’ second-best record in the AL gives him the team-success context that most challengers lack.

The complication is Judge’s expected return in September, which will inevitably draw voter attention back to the Yankees’ franchise player regardless of Rice’s individual merits, and the historical difficulty of a teammate winning MVP over a returning superstar makes Rice’s path narrow despite the quality of his numbers.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+3500 FanDuel)

Witt has fallen dramatically from his earlier +500 position to +3500 on FanDuel after recently dealing with a back injury that has limited his production and raised concerns about his availability down the stretch. He leads the AL in fWAR and still possesses the most complete statistical portfolio in the race by advanced metrics, but the combination of the back injury and the Kansas City Royals’ poor record has effectively removed him from realistic MVP consideration in the market’s view.

BetMGM is the outlier book, still listing Witt at +180 in a market that appears to lag behind FanDuel’s sharper reaction to his recent health news.

Nick Kurtz (+3000 FanDuel)

Kurtz has settled into the fourth slot at +3000, building on his Rookie of the Year campaign with a .924 OPS and consistent power production for the Oakland Athletics. His candidacy is limited primarily by the Athletics’ standing in the AL West and a WAR profile that trails the top three contenders meaningfully, but at +3000 the power profile and development trajectory justify monitoring his position through September as a potential beneficiary if the top candidates encounter health setbacks.

Other Players in the AL MVP Race

Byron Buxton remains the most analytically compelling name at the bottom of the board, carrying elite hard-contact metrics and a power profile that ranks among the best in the league. The Twins’ playoff contention gives him the team-success context that most long shots lack, and a healthy September could shorten his odds meaningfully if his counting statistics catch up to his underlying metrics.

Betting Outlook

The AL MVP race has effectively narrowed to Alvarez versus the field, with Caminero as the only player the broader market identifies as a genuine challenger. Alvarez at -360 on FanDuel is pricing in a 78 percent implied probability, a number that reflects both the extraordinary breadth of his statistical leadership and the Astros’ return to playoff contention that removed the primary structural obstacle to his candidacy.

The value question for bettors is whether Caminero at +440 adequately reflects the probability that the Rays win the AL East and voters apply the traditional team-success premium. Historical AL MVP voting has overwhelmingly favored players on winning teams, and a Rays division title combined with Caminero’s production numbers represents a scenario that the current odds may not fully price.

Alvarez on pure statistics is the correct choice. Caminero on narrative and team context is the value play. The degree to which voters weight each factor when making their ballots in October will determine which side of that bet cashes.

MLB AL MVP Previous Winners

AL MVP has recently been dominated by Judge, who has won three of the last four awards. 

Year	Player	Team
2025	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees
2024	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees
2023	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Angels
2022	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees
2021	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Angels
2020	Jose Abreu	Chicago White Sox
2019	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels
2018	Mookie Betts	Boston Red Sox
2017	Jose Altuve	Houston Astros
2016	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels
2015	Josh Donaldson	Toronto Blue Jays

How to Bet On The MLB AL MVP

To bet on the MLB AL MVP, here’s what you do:

1. Choose your preferred sportsbook.
2. Log into your account.
3. Choose the MLB Odds tab on the menu.
4. Select “Futures” in the drop-down menu.
5. Click MLB AL MVP.
6. Tap your pick to add it to your bet slip.
7. Place your wager.