2026 MLB Home Run Leader Betting Odds
Whether you’re a total baseball junkie or a casual fan who might catch a few games a season, there’s universal agreement that home runs are pretty cool.
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In the world of baseball, home runs are one of the statistics that resonate most with observers of the game.
Apparently, a lot of people are interested in seeing how far a man can send a small object hurtling through the Earth’s atmosphere after swatting at it with a wooden stick.
If you’re one of those people, you can take your affinity for home runs and potentially earn a nice little profit in the process.
Here, we’ll detail everything you need to know about betting on MLB’s Home Run Leader and how you can add some extra excitement to the MLB season.
Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.
How is the Winner Decided?
Unlike yearly MLB awards such as the Most Valuable Player or the Cy Young, the MLB Home Run Leader is determined by who hits the most home runs during the league’s 162-game regular season.
In sports betting, the winner is the player who finishes the season with the highest number of home runs. In the event of a tie, the payout is typically reduced, often split in half, but be sure to review your sportsbook’s dead heat rules for exact details.
While some sportsbooks may offer bets on who will lead the American League or National League in home runs, this particular wager covers the entire MLB.
MLB Home Run Leaders Betting Odds
The race to lead Major League Baseball in home runs is one of the most exciting futures markets each season, and 2026 is shaping up to be no different. With several elite sluggers in their prime and a new wave of power hitters emerging, sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM have released early odds highlighting a competitive field.
At the top, the market is dominated by proven home run leaders, but history shows this award often produces surprises—especially when injuries, ballpark factors, and hot streaks come into play over a long season.
Top 5 Favorites to Lead MLB in Home Runs (BetMGM Odds)
Aaron Judge (+350)
Aaron Judge once again sits atop the odds board as the favorite. The New York Yankees slugger has already led MLB in home runs multiple times and continues to produce elite power numbers year after year. With his combination of size, strength, and plate discipline, Judge remains the safest bet in this market.
Shohei Ohtani (+400)
Shohei Ohtani is right behind Judge and offers similar upside. Now fully focused on hitting while continuing his two-way excellence, Ohtani’s raw power and consistency make him a strong contender to lead the league in long balls.
Kyle Schwarber (+800)
Kyle Schwarber remains one of the most dangerous pure power hitters in baseball. Known for his ability to go on home run tears, Schwarber is a streaky but high-upside option who can quickly climb the leaderboard.
Cal Raleigh (+900)
Cal Raleigh, coming off a historic power season for a catcher, has emerged as a legitimate threat in this market. His ability to generate power from the catcher position makes him unique—and dangerous over a full season.
Nick Kurtz (+1000)
Nick Kurtz represents the next generation of power hitters. With elite bat speed and a breakout trajectory, Kurtz has quickly climbed into the top tier of home run contenders heading into 2026.
Other Notable Players in the 2026 Home Run Race
Beyond the top five, the home run race features plenty of depth, with several established stars and emerging sluggers offering value at longer odds.
| Player | Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +1300 |
| Juan Soto | +1700 |
| Junior Caminero | +2500 |
| Matt Olson | +3000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +3000 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +4500 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +4500 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | +4500 |
| Julio Rodríguez | +5500 |
| Bryce Harper | +8000 |
These players all have the ability to make a serious run at the home run crown, particularly if they stay healthy and benefit from favorable lineup protection or ballpark conditions.
Betting Outlook
The 2026 home run leader market is shaping up as a battle between established superstars and rising power hitters. While Judge and Ohtani headline the odds, bettors often find value further down the board where breakout candidates can emerge.
For bettors, the key is identifying players with a combination of durability, lineup opportunity, and elite power metrics. In a stat as volatile as home runs, even long shots can quickly become contenders—making this one of the most exciting and unpredictable futures bets in baseball.
Previous MLB Home Run Leaders
Dating back to 2015, here’s a look at who led Major League Baseball in home runs for each respective season.
It’s also worth noting that the 2020 MLB season had a home run leader with only 22 home runs, due to the shortened season caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Only once in the last 10 seasons (2021) has there been a shared home run lead at the end of the MLB season.
| Year | Player | Home Runs |
| 2025 | Cal Raleigh (mariners) | 60 |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 58 |
| 2023 | Matt Olson (Braves) | 54 |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 62 |
| 2021 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) and Salvador Perez (Royals) | 48 |
| 2020* | Luke Voit (Yankees) | 22 |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (Mets) | 53 |
| 2018 | Khris Davis (Athletics) | 48 |
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins) | 59 |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo (Orioles) | 47 |
| 2015 | Chris Davis | 47 |
* – The 2020 MLB season was shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic
How to Bet On The MLB Home Run Leader
To bet on who leads MLB in home runs , follow these steps:
- Go to your preferred sportsbook and log into your account.
- Select the MLB Odds’ tab option in the betting menu.
- Go to the ‘Futures’ drop-down menu.
- Click on MLB Home Runs Leader (or something similar).’
- Choose your bet and place it in the bet-slip window.
