2026 MLB Home Run Leader Betting Odds
Whether you’re a total baseball junkie or a casual fan who might catch a few games a season, there’s universal agreement that home runs are pretty cool.
In the world of baseball, home runs are one of the statistics that resonate most with observers of the game.
Apparently, a lot of people are interested in seeing how far a man can send a small object hurtling through the Earth’s atmosphere after swatting at it with a wooden stick.
If you’re one of those people, you can take your affinity for home runs and potentially earn a nice little profit in the process.
Here, we’ll detail everything you need to know about betting on MLB’s Home Run Leader and how you can add some extra excitement to the MLB season.
Note: Odds were correct as of Aug. 3, 2026.
Best Sportsbooks for MLB Home Run Leader
DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings offers MLB home run leader odds throughout the baseball season, allowing bettors to wager on which player will finish with the most home runs. Futures markets are typically available before Opening Day and remain active as the season progresses.
The sportsbook regularly updates odds based on player performance, injuries, and changes in the home run race. Bettors can track leading sluggers while evaluating value on both favorites and longshot contenders.
DraftKings complements its home run leader market with player props and season-long MLB futures, creating multiple ways to bet on baseball’s top power hitters.
FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel features MLB home run leader betting as part of its extensive baseball futures offering. Bettors can wager on top sluggers before the season begins or enter the market later as the race develops.
Odds are adjusted throughout the year to reflect home run totals, player form, and lineup changes. This allows bettors to react to emerging contenders and shifting market conditions.
FanDuel also provides a variety of player-focused betting options, making it a strong destination for fans following the MLB home run race.
BetMGM Sportsbook
BetMGM offers MLB home run leader odds on many of baseball’s biggest stars and breakout candidates. These futures markets are available throughout much of the season and are updated regularly.
Bettors can compare odds across a wide range of power hitters while monitoring changes in the leaderboard. The market often features both established sluggers and emerging players with strong home run potential.
In addition to home run leader betting, BetMGM provides a full menu of MLB futures and player awards markets.
Caesars Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook provides MLB home run leader betting for those looking to back baseball’s top power hitters. Futures odds are available on many of the league’s premier sluggers throughout the season.
The market evolves as players climb the leaderboard, giving bettors opportunities to identify value during different stages of the campaign. Odds can shift significantly based on performance streaks and injury news.
Caesars also offers related MLB futures markets, including MVP awards and season stat leader categories.
bet365 Sportsbook
Bet365 offers comprehensive MLB futures coverage, including odds on the league’s home run leader. Bettors can choose from a large pool of players competing for one of baseball’s most popular statistical titles.
The sportsbook regularly updates odds as the season unfolds, reflecting changes in player production and standings among the league’s top sluggers. This creates opportunities for both preseason and in-season futures betting.
Along with home run leader odds, bet365 provides a broad selection of MLB player and team futures throughout the year.
BetRivers Sportsbook
BetRivers features MLB home run leader betting as part of its baseball futures lineup. The market allows bettors to predict which player will finish the season atop the home run leaderboard.
Odds are adjusted throughout the year as players battle for the lead. Bettors can monitor performance trends and evaluate contenders as the season progresses.
BetRivers also offers additional MLB futures, including award races and team championship markets, giving baseball bettors several long-term wagering options.
Hard Rock Bet
Hard Rock Bet offers MLB home run leader odds on many of the game’s top power hitters. Bettors can place futures wagers before the season or track the market as the race develops during the summer months.
The sportsbook updates odds based on player performance and changing leaderboard positions. This provides opportunities to identify value on emerging contenders and established stars alike.
Hard Rock Bet also features a variety of baseball futures and player-focused markets, making it a useful option for fans following the home run race.
How is the Winner Decided?
Unlike yearly MLB awards such as the Most Valuable Player or the Cy Young, the MLB Home Run Leader is determined by who hits the most home runs during the league’s 162-game regular season.
In sports betting, the winner is the player who finishes the season with the highest number of home runs. In the event of a tie, the payout is typically reduced, often split in half, but be sure to review your sportsbook’s dead heat rules for exact details.
While some sportsbooks may offer bets on who will lead the American League or National League in home runs, this particular wager covers the entire MLB.
MLB Home Run Leaders Betting Odds (Updated Aug. 3, 2026)
The race to lead Major League Baseball in home runs is one of the most exciting futures markets each season, and 2026 is shaping up to be no different. With several elite sluggers in their prime and a new wave of power hitters emerging, sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM have released odds highlighting a competitive field.
2026 has delivered exactly the drama bettors were hoping for. Kyle Schwarber has taken control of the National League leaderboard in dominant fashion, while Aaron Judge’s fractured rib has reshuffled the American League picture. With the trade deadline arriving today and the stretch run beginning, the home run market is moving fast.
Kyle Schwarber (-125)
Schwarber is the current favorite to be the top home run leader in the MLB with odds of -125, already boasting 20-plus home runs for the season. As of the All-Star break, Schwarber paced all MLB players with 32 home runs, having entered the year at +800 in BetMGM’s market.
His flyball rate and pull tendency at Citizens Bank Park, one of the more homer-friendly environments in the National League, continue to give him a structural advantage over peers with comparable raw power numbers. The NL home run race has looked something close to a one-horse competition on his end of the bracket, and the odds have shortened dramatically as the market has been forced to acknowledge the gap between him and the field.
Aaron Judge (+350)
Judge sits second on the board at +350 despite being transferred to the 60-day injured list with a fractured rib, likely not returning until September. As of May 19, Judge was second in home runs with 16, and considering his pedigree and power, he remains a strong choice to challenge Schwarber if he returns healthy.
Judge led MLB in home runs in 2024 and 2022 and is practically a guarantee for at least 50 home runs if he remains healthy all season. The injury risk is real and substantial, but the underlying talent makes him impossible to dismiss entirely at his current price for bettors willing to bet on a September return.
Nick Kurtz (+1000)
Kurtz holds the third position on the board at +1000 and represents one of the most analytically compelling cases on the entire home run market. Among players with at least 300 plate appearances last season, Kurtz led the league in home run to fly ball ratio, hitting a home run every 13.5 plate appearances, and posted a 92nd percentile average exit velocity, 98th percentile barrel rate, 92nd percentile hard-hit rate, and 98th percentile bat speed.
His home games at Sutter Health Park, one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the sport, provide a structural advantage that the market has been slow to fully price in. For bettors who believe the underlying contact quality translates into counting statistics through September, +1000 remains an attractive price.
Cal Raleigh (+900)
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh led MLB with 60 home runs during the 2025 season, a historic output for a catcher. The market has priced him at +900 as a repeat candidate, which reflects both respect for what he accomplished and genuine skepticism about whether that total was a baseline or an outlier. His elite exit velocity and consistent launch angle profile remain intact, but the Mariners’ struggles as a team in 2026 have limited his exposure in the conversations dominating the home run market. At +900, the case is built entirely on underlying metrics pointing toward another 50-plus-homer campaign.
Shohei Ohtani (+10000)
In a strange twist, Ohtani only has the 17th-shortest MLB home run odds at +10000, having had just seven home runs through mid-May in the worst power hitting slump of his career. The underlying numbers have not supported the counting statistics all season. His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage all remain near elite levels. At +10000, Ohtani is a great sleeper pick for bettors who believe a second-half surge is coming, particularly given his history of dramatic mid-season power eruptions in previous campaigns.
Other Notable Players in the 2026 Home Run Race
Beyond the top five, the home run race features meaningful depth with established stars and emerging sluggers available at longer odds.
| Player | Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs |
|---|---|
| Ben Rice | +1800 |
| Matt Olson | +2500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +2200 |
| Munetaka Murakami | +2500 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +3500 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +4000 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +4500 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | +5000 |
| Byron Buxton | +10000 |
| Junior Caminero | +3500 |
Matt Olson has 14-plus home runs so far in 2026 and has looked in good form for the Braves, priced at +2500 as a lurker in the pack. His MVP-caliber first half in Atlanta keeps him relevant in any NL power conversation, even if the gap to Schwarber is significant.
Bobby Witt Jr. stands out among the value plays further down the board. THE BAT X projected Witt to benefit from Kauffman Stadium’s new dimensions by roughly two additional home runs per season, yet his odds of +2200 represent one of the clearest disconnects between projection-model output and market pricing.
Byron Buxton at +10000 is impossible to ignore for value hunters. The Twins outfielder ranked in the 92nd percentile or higher in expected slugging, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage last season, and 68.6 percent of his home runs would have flown out of every MLB park — a 21 percent higher mark than Ohtani and 17 percent higher than Judge.
Betting Outlook
The 2026 home run leader market has been reshaped by two dominant storylines entering August: Schwarber’s torrid pace and Judge’s injury absence. Schwarber paced all MLB players with 32 home runs at the All-Star break, a total that puts him on pace to challenge the most productive single-season totals of the past decade if he stays healthy through September.
The structural reality of this market is that it rewards durability as much as peak power. A player who hits 45 home runs across 155 games is more likely to win the title than one who posts elite per-game rates across 130 appearances.
Judge’s injury makes Schwarber the heavy chalk, but at -125 the implied probability already prices in most of his advantage. For bettors seeking value, Kurtz at +1000 offers the most compelling combination of elite underlying metrics and meaningful remaining schedule at a price that does not yet reflect his full probability of mounting a serious September challenge.
Previous MLB Home Run Leaders
Dating back to 2015, here’s a look at who led Major League Baseball in home runs for each respective season.
It’s also worth noting that the 2020 MLB season had a home run leader with only 22 home runs, due to the shortened season caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Only once in the last 10 seasons (2021) has there been a shared home run lead at the end of the MLB season.
| Year | Player | Home Runs |
| 2025 | Cal Raleigh (mariners) | 60 |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 58 |
| 2023 | Matt Olson (Braves) | 54 |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 62 |
| 2021 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) and Salvador Perez (Royals) | 48 |
| 2020* | Luke Voit (Yankees) | 22 |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (Mets) | 53 |
| 2018 | Khris Davis (Athletics) | 48 |
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins) | 59 |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo (Orioles) | 47 |
| 2015 | Chris Davis | 47 |
* – The 2020 MLB season was shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic
How to Bet On The MLB Home Run Leader
To bet on who leads MLB in home runs , follow these steps:
- Go to your preferred sportsbook and log into your account.
- Select the MLB Odds’ tab option in the betting menu.
- Go to the ‘Futures’ drop-down menu.
- Click on MLB Home Runs Leader (or something similar).’
- Choose your bet and place it in the bet-slip window.
