Best NFL Quarterback Odds 2026

The 2025 NFL season produced one of the most compelling quarterback races in recent memory, and it ended with a finish that surprised nearly everyone who watched the sport. Matthew Stafford, the 37-year-old Los Angeles Rams veteran who spent the first 12 years of his career in Detroit without a whiff of postseason success, won the NFL MVP award in one of the closest votes the award has ever seen.

Stafford led the league in passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46), commanding an offense that earned the top seed in the NFC and marched to the conference championship game before falling to the Seattle Seahawks in a 31-27 heartbreaker. His 109.2 passer rating was a career best and tied the franchise single-season record set by Kurt Warner in 1999. He threw 28 consecutive touchdown passes at one point without an interception, the longest such streak since play-by-play records were first kept in 1978.

When the votes were tallied at NFL Honors in February, Stafford edged Drake Maye 366 to 361, the narrowest margin since Steve McNair and Peyton Manning tied for the award in 2003.

The runner-up told its own remarkable story. Maye, just 23 years old and in his second professional season, carried the New England Patriots to Super Bowl LX on the back of a 113.5 passer rating, the best in the league, completing 72.0 percent of his passes and adding 450 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. New England lost to the Seahawks in the championship game, and some argued afterward that the MVP probably should have been Maye’s. That debate will linger.

Elsewhere, the 2025 season was defined as much by what did not happen as what did. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15, the Kansas City Chiefs finished 6-11 and missed the postseason for the first time in a decade, and the dynasty that had defined the AFC for the better part of seven years ground to a sudden, painful halt.

Lamar Jackson dealt with injury for most of the year, finishing with just 2,549 passing yards across 13 games, his production a shadow of the back-to-back All-Pro campaigns that preceded it. Josh Allen delivered a strong third-place finish in MVP voting and led the Bills to a 12-5 record, but the award felt just out of reach.

Looking ahead to 2026, the board has reshuffled in fascinating ways. Allen opens as the early betting favorite for MVP, followed closely by Jackson, with Maye, Burrow, Herbert, and Mahomes (health permitting) filling out a deep field. The quarterback position has never produced a more competitive group at the top, and for bettors, that competition creates both opportunity and complexity.

Best Sportsbooks for Quarterback Betting

Betting On NFL Quarterbacks

2025 NFL QB Statistical Leaders

Note: Mahomes finished in 14 games before his season-ending ACL/LCL tear in Week 15. Burrow missed significant time with a turf toe injury. Jackson played 13 games due to injury.

The statistical table above tells a story of generational depth. Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes set a new Rams franchise record, surpassing his own mark of 41 set in the Super Bowl-winning 2021 season. But the most revealing number may be Maye’s passer rating of 113.5, which led the entire league despite his relatively modest raw yardage total. Maye also finished first in the NFL in completion percentage at 72.0 percent, tied for the fifth-highest single-season rate in NFL history.

Jared Goff and Dak Prescott both cracked 4,500 passing yards, a testament to how quickly the position has evolved when even the fifth and sixth-best quarterbacks in the league can put up numbers that would have been considered historic a decade ago.

The Best Quarterbacks Heading Into 2026

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

Stafford announced in his MVP acceptance speech that he would be returning for the 2026 season, which he will enter at age 38. The burning question is whether a player who produced his best statistical season at 37 can sustain that level heading into what will be his 18th NFL campaign.

The historical evidence suggests some natural regression. No quarterback has ever won back-to-back MVP awards at the age of 38. But Stafford’s supporting cast remains elite. The Rams added Myles Garrett to a defense that was already formidable, and the offense retains Davante Adams and Puka Nacua alongside one of the most sophisticated passing attack designs in the league under Sean McVay. Stafford at +550 to repeat as MVP is not a price that screams value given his age, but the infrastructure around him means another competitive season is eminently plausible.

The Hall of Fame conversation has also officially started. His MVP trophy, combined with a Super Bowl ring from 2021, places him among the most accomplished quarterbacks of his generation, and the football world is watching how this final chapter plays out.

Josh Allen (BUF)

Allen enters 2026 as the betting favorite to win MVP and the quarterback most bookmakers consider the best player at the position headed into the new season. He finished the 2025 regular season with 3,668 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 14 rushing touchdowns, reaching the end zone with his legs more than any other quarterback in the league. His passer rating of 102.2 was actually higher than his 2024 MVP campaign despite a slightly reduced stat line.

The knock on Allen in 2025 was a few too many turnovers in critical moments and a foot injury late in the year that visibly affected his play. Buffalo added D.J. Moore via trade, giving Allen a proven outside threat who has totaled over 1,000 yards in multiple seasons. The Bills finished 12-5 in 2025 and fell to Denver in the divisional round, and with the Chiefs likely rebuilding around Mahomes’ recovery, the AFC looks open.

Allen has now finished in the top three of MVP voting for three consecutive seasons. He won the award in 2024 and came agonizingly close in both 2023 and 2025. If he can stay healthy and limit the costly errors that have occasionally undermined his otherwise spectacular play, the odds suggest he is the class of the conference.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

The two-time MVP had a season that bore no resemblance to either of his award campaigns, and the reasons were largely outside his control. Jackson dealt with hamstring, back, knee, ankle, and toe issues across 2025, missing four games and leaving two others early, and the Ravens finished outside the playoffs for the first time since 2018. His final numbers, 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions across 13 games, represented a significant statistical decline.

The critical context is that even in his compromised state, his efficiency metrics remained strong. His 103.8 passer rating was fourth in the league. When he was healthy in 2024, Jackson turned in one of the most statistically efficient quarterback seasons in NFL history, completing 316 of 474 passes with 41 touchdowns against just four interceptions and a 119.6 passer rating. That output, achieved at age 27, represents his floor when healthy.

Baltimore has parted ways with head coach John Harbaugh and hired defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, a significant regime change that introduces some uncertainty. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who previously worked in Chicago, comes with genuine hype attached. If the Ravens can keep Jackson on the field for 17 games in 2026, a return to the top of the MVP market is far more likely than his current odds suggest.

Drake Maye (NWE)

Maye’s second season in the league was the kind of breakthrough that happens once or twice a decade. He took over a moribund Patriots franchise, installed Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, and delivered the most efficient passing season of any quarterback in the NFL in 2025. The Patriots won their first AFC East title since the Brady era and reached Super Bowl LX before losing to Seattle.

Everything about Maye’s trajectory points upward. He is 23 years old. His completion rate of 72.0 percent was historically high. His ability to extend plays and create off-schedule was among the best in the league. New England has since added A.J. Brown from Philadelphia via trade, which gives Maye one of the premier wide receivers in the game and immediately strengthens the case for him challenging Allen and Jackson for the top of the MVP board.

The schedule is tougher in 2026, and expectations will be dramatically higher than they were entering 2025. But the skillset is undeniably there, and bettors who recognize the value before Maye’s odds shorten further may find him one of the best positions on the board at his current price.

Patrick Mahomes (KAN)

Mahomes enters 2026 with every question mark surrounding him circled in red. He tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 against the Chargers, underwent successful surgery, and has since been described as ahead of schedule in his rehab by everyone from his own medical staff to outside reporters. He has been spotted throwing at the team facility and has publicly stated his goal of being ready for Week 1 of the 2026 season.

The Kansas City Chiefs finished 6-11 without him. Travis Kelce is entering his age-37 season. The roster has been reshuffled significantly, and the franchise that won four of the previous six Super Bowls is no longer the overwhelming AFC favorite it once was. The question for bettors is not whether Mahomes can still play at an elite level when healthy, because there is essentially no meaningful evidence that his ability has diminished. The question is whether he can return from a torn ACL at age 30 with a knee that also had its LCL repaired, recapture the rhythm that made him one of the most efficient passers in NFL history, and do it quickly enough in a season that begins roughly nine months after his surgery.

Historical precedent, including Tom Brady’s recovery from a similar injury in 2008, is encouraging. But entering the season at any kind of physical disadvantage on a team that lacks the depth it had during its dynasty years makes Mahomes a genuinely complicated betting proposition. At plus-1000 odds, the talent profile is impossible to dismiss. The durability question is real.

Joe Burrow (CIN)

Burrow has now dealt with significant injuries in three of his six professional seasons, which is the central frustration for anyone who watches him play and understands just how exceptional his skill set is. When healthy, his combination of accuracy, pocket movement, quick decision-making, and willingness to throw from outside the pocket is as good as any quarterback’s in the game.

In 2025, a turf toe injury limited his availability and the Bengals fell short of the postseason. Despite missing substantial time, his passer rating of 100.7 ranked seventh in the league. He has now finished fourth in MVP voting twice, which speaks to both his talent and the persistent bad luck that has followed his career. At plus-1000 heading into 2026, Burrow represents one of the sharpest value plays on the board if you believe he can maintain his health across 17 games.

Cincinnati’s roster remains underrated. The offensive line has been rebuilt around him, Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver in football, and the Bengals have every incentive to prove that 2025 was an aberration rather than a new trend.

Jared Goff (DET)

Goff is the most underappreciated quarterback in the league, and the 2025 season did nothing to change that narrative even as the numbers continued to pile up. He finished second in the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, guiding a Lions offense that was second in total scoring. Detroit finished the season 9-8, which was disappointing given their preseason expectations but disguised a level of quarterback play that would have been recognized more loudly on a more successful team.

Heading into 2026, Goff is well-positioned to continue producing elite volume statistics under Dan Campbell and the Lions’ system. The receiving corps is talented, the offensive line has steadily improved, and Goff has now posted back-to-back top-five passing seasons. He is not a realistic MVP candidate given how the voting has trended toward players on dominant teams, but as a player and as a betting asset in quarterback-related markets, he remains consistently undervalued.

2025 NFL MVP Final Voting

Stafford’s margin of victory was five points, the closest MVP race since Steve McNair and Peyton Manning tied in 2003. Only 47 of 50 voters put either Stafford or Maye at the top of their ballot, and the one first-place vote that went to Justin Herbert rather than either of the two finalists may ultimately have been the difference. Had that voter switched to Maye in first place and Herbert in second, Maye would have won the award.

The closeness of the vote says something meaningful about how the NFL views the two quarterbacks. Stafford’s statistical dominance in raw terms was undeniable. But Maye’s efficiency, his team’s Super Bowl appearance, and the narrative of a 23-year-old transcending the league in just his second season made a compelling counterargument.

2026 NFL MVP Odds Overview

Odds are approximate early-market figures and will shift as training camp and the preseason develop. Always compare across multiple sportsbooks before placing a futures wager.

The hierarchy is relatively clear at the top. Allen and Jackson account for roughly 40 percent of the early betting handle, reflecting their status as the two most proven performers in the field. Maye is the most interesting candidate at his price, given that his 2025 season was arguably as good as Allen’s MVP campaign from 2024 and he is playing on an increasingly loaded Patriots roster.

The wild card remains Mahomes. At plus-1000, bettors are being asked to discount three years of sustained dominance based on a knee injury that his own medical staff describes as ahead of schedule in recovery.

Emerging Names to Watch in 2026

Caleb Williams (CHI)

Williams’ second season under Ben Johnson showed enough flashes of the transcendent talent that made him the first overall pick in 2024 to justify genuine optimism heading into year three. He led the Bears to a divisional round exit and threw a walk-off touchdown pass that was named the NFL’s Play of the Year. His supporting cast has been upgraded and, at 24, he is entering the age range where young quarterbacks historically make their most significant leaps.

Williams is not yet the finished product. His tendency to hold the ball too long remains a concern, and his turnover numbers need to come down for Chicago to take the next step. But at plus-1500 for MVP, the upside is real, and a few more months of development under one of the most quarterback-friendly systems in the league could make him a genuine threat by midseason.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

Lawrence’s 2025 season was one of the quieter great stories of the year. The Jaguars, written off by most national observers before the season, won 13 games under first-year head coach Liam Coen and Lawrence finished as an MVP finalist with 38 total touchdowns. His performance in the second half of the season was compared favorably to Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign by multiple analysts.

At plus-1400, Lawrence heading into 2026 represents genuine value if the Jaguars can repeat their surprise run. He is 26, now fully established as one of the better quarterbacks in the league, and playing in an offense tailored to his strengths.

Jordan Love (GB)

Love had a quietly outstanding 2025 season that often got overlooked in the noise surrounding the Micah Parsons trade and ACL injury. He finished sixth in the league in passer rating, led the Packers to four fourth-quarter comebacks, and had an EPA per dropback in a clean pocket that ranked second in the entire league. He is 27 heading into 2026 and operating in his third full season as a starter, which historically tends to be when the position sees its most significant leaps in performance.

What Betting on NFL Quarterbacks Actually Means

When bettors look at quarterback-related futures, the market most commonly available is NFL MVP, the season-long award voted on by a panel of 50 media members at the close of the regular season. Thirteen consecutive MVPs have been quarterbacks, and there is no serious reason to expect that streak to end in 2026. The award has become functionally synonymous with the best quarterback on one of the best teams in the league.

The key factors for bettors to track throughout the season are team record (no quarterback has won MVP with fewer than 11 wins since Adrian Peterson in 2012), raw passing statistics (touchdowns and passer rating matter most to voters), health and availability, and narrative momentum. A slow start can eliminate even the best players from contention. A hot finish in December and January, combined with a team pushing for a top seed, can vault a quarterback up the board rapidly.

Odds will move significantly once training camp opens in late July and the first few weeks of the regular season reveal which quarterbacks are operating at their peak. The smart play for most bettors is to identify value now, before the narrative gets attached, then monitor throughout the year for opportunities to hedge or add exposure at better prices.

How to Bet on NFL Quarterback Awards

1. Log in to your preferred sportsbook and navigate to the NFL section.
2. Select Futures or Player Awards from the menu.
3. Find the MVP or Offensive Player of the Year market.
4. Review the available odds for each quarterback and compare across books to find the best price.
5. Add your selection to the bet slip and confirm your wager amount.

Most sportsbooks open MVP markets in the spring ahead of training camp and update odds continuously throughout the regular season. The biggest line movements typically occur after Week 1 results, following major injuries, and after a player delivers a standout multi-game stretch in November or December. Monitoring those moves and betting into weakness rather than strength is generally the most profitable long-term approach.

As always, shop across multiple sportsbooks before placing any futures bet. The difference between plus-850 and plus-1000 on the same player at two different books is the difference between a meaningful win and a much better win, and it costs you nothing to find it.