Best NFL Parlay Bets Week 17
Christmas is behind us and we now welcome 2023 with the penultimate week of regular season games.
There is a wide range of divisional rivalries on offer and last-ditch attempts to reach the playoffs for a number of teams.
As usual, I’ve done my homework to build this week’s parlay by finding what I feel to be the best value bets.
I have selected one game to be under as well as an over, a couple of spread bets and a dog moneyline.
Last week I chose a big underdog in the Texans.
This week I have done the opposite. A very slight underdog is my selection in the New York Jets.
This means that my payout would be the smallest of the season if all five bets are correct. It equates to just under +2700.
Moneyline – Jets Vs. Seahawks (Best Odds – +110)
Ahead of the season, I have enjoyed identifying which underdog represents the best value in the early lines to be included in my parlay.
There are certain occasions when you can imagine that come game time, the line will have shifted considerably.
This is one such market where I’d be surprised to see a positive number against New York when this New Year’s Day clash takes place.
The Jets may have been woeful in recent seasons, but they are past their nadir. They are on the up. Quite when they will lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy is anybody’s guess.
But spare a thought for Seattle. The glory days are now a thing of the past. This is a franchise on the decline, with an aging head coach pining for his roster of old.
2022 will be a tough reality check in Washington State. The first game of 2023 will follow a similar pattern.
I expect Zach Wilson and his better depth of talent around him to add further pain to the Seahawks’ disappointing season.
Before the season started, Seattle sat bottom of the NFL in terms of handle with BetMGM to win the Super Bowl.
There was a reason for that!
Spread – Steelers (+6) Vs. Ravens (-110)
For the fourth time this season, the Steelers appear as a road underdog selection for either one of my moneyline or spread bets.
You may be noticing a trend here! Life without Big Ben was always going to be a tough pill to swallow, but the Steelers are made of stern stuff.
Much like the Lions last year who had a habit of covering the spread whilst ultimately losing the game, I’ve been siding with the Steelers to do likewise.
They finished bottom of the league last season against the run. This will not be the case this time around.
Mike Tomlin simply will not tolerate such poor performances again. He loves these attritional divisional duels, especially when he comes to town.
Expect a low-scoring battle in the trenches with the Steelers somehow keeping Lamar under wraps. It won’t be pretty.
They might not even win. But when the clock rolls down to zero, the Steelers will be within a touchdown of their AFC North rivals.
Over/Under – Rams Vs. Chargers (50.5) (-110)
When I first started watching the NFL in the early 1980s, I always watched out for the same city rivalries.
For such a vast country, it always surprised me that a couple of cities had two franchises. Back then the Rams against the Raiders in the Coliseum was always a great and brutal spectacle.
There was a 68-pointer thriller in 1982 when 33 points were racked up in the fourth quarter alone.
That many points in the final 15 minutes of the upcoming Rams-Chargers game might be unlikely.
However, both modern LA franchises are stacked with some serious sporting superstars. There are a host of Pro Bowlers on the show to bring in the New Year with a bang.
Los Angeles is practically the last major global city to enjoy the fireworks to welcome in 2023.
Well, I foresee a lot more later in the day at the SoFi when it is the turn of the Rams to be the road team in their home stadium!
I’d play this total up another 5 or 6 points. There is simply too much firepower on show to disappoint.
Spread – Bills (PK) Vs. Bengals (-110)
The Bills kicked off the 2022 NFL Season with a dominant display against the Los Angeles Rams, the Super Bowl champions.
They traveled across the country to dish out the defeat. They cruised it by three converted touchdowns.
As Buffalo approaches the end of the regular season, a pick’em against the Bengals is my idea of a value bet.
I expect Josh and his boys to travel to Cincinnati and gain a similarly comprehensive victory against the Super Bowl runner-up.
This is one of those lines in which I expect to see a lot of movement as the season progresses. The Bengals were the surprise package last season, but I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.
A harder schedule this season, as well as other teams having greater hunger to defeat them, will bring the Bengals came down to earth.
The Burrows-Chase telepathy will be better understood by opposing defensive coaches. The Bills run (and pass) smoothly like a well-oiled machine.
Come game time, I expect them to be clear favorites and duly deliver.
Over/Under – 49ers Vs. Raiders (47.5) (-110)
This will be the first time that the 49ers play the Raiders in their latest guise as a Las Vegas franchise. They have met 14 times since 1970.
They have scored more than 45 points just 4 times. Their three meetings in the 2010s resulted in exactly 100 points.
That average of barely 33 points gives me some confidence that the under is the correct play here. The 49ers have more potency in their locker than in the previous decade.
The Raiders have sprinklings of stardust in their roster. But they have played this season in the toughest division in the NFL.
They will be bruised and battered as they enter 2023. For a team that averaged 22 points last season, I simply don’t see them being able to do their bit for a high-scoring game.
Coach Shanahan will control the clock and possession, as he often does when on the road.
I expect a clear-cut 49ers victory over the exhausted Raiders in a game of few touchdowns.