NFL Week 17 Parlay

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 28, 2023

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Taking the under on Cleveland Browns games used to be profitable, with a defense led by Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward shutting down opposing offenses.

While their defense has still been strong, the Browns’ offense has been scoring way too many points to justify taking unders.

Cleveland put up 36 points on the Houston Texans last week in a game that had a total set at 40.

The same issue occurred two weeks earlier, when the Browns scored 31 points in a game against the Jaguars. The total for that game was 37.5 points.

Joe Flacco has turned this Cleveland offense into a legit scoring threat, and from now on, I must look at this team as such.

Cleveland Browns: scoring threat.

In the Browns’ Thursday Night Football matchup with New York Jets, Cleveland can clinch a playoff berth with a win, in Cleveland.

It’s an interesting time for football in The Land.

For this Week 17 parlay, I will use the same formula as the parlays that came before, one underdog moneyline, two spreads, one over, and one under.

This parlay will be submitted on FanDuel.

Moneyline – Los Angeles Chargers (+156) vs. Denver Broncos

Although both of these teams appear to be “tanking”, someone has to walk out with a win.

Easton Stick has been palatable under center, throwing for 651 yards and three touchdowns and producing a passer rating of 94.4 in his limited sample of playing time.

And Stick just faced the Denver Broncos in Week 14 when Justin Herbert went down for good, completing 13-of-24 passes for 179 yards as a fill-in.

This scoring graph from BestOdds EDGE shows that Los Angeles’ offense went through a scoring dip, but even with Stick now quarterbacking the Chargers offense, they’re offense is getting their feet under them.

Los Angeles scored 22 points last week, and gave the Bills a run for their money, but came up just short, losing 24-22.

The Broncos’ offense already looked shaky before benching Russell Wilson, and I don’t see Jarrett Stidham producing the “spark” that Sean Payton is looking for in his offense.

Pick: Chargers Moneyline

Spread – Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears (-3 | -105)

BestOdds EDGE tells me the Chicago Bears have been solid against the spread lately.

Chicago has also won four of their last six games.

While most of the attention on the Bears is directed at Justin Fields’ future and what they’ll choose to do with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Chicago has been playing some inspiring football at present.

The Bears’ currently hold the NFL’s best rushing defense, allowing only 80.7 rushing yards per game, and this week, against an Atlanta Falcons offense that likes to run the ball, this is a great matchup for Chicago.

Falcons’ QB Taylor Heinicke is also questionable to play after sustaining an ankle injury, so if Atlanta chooses to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and the rushing attack, that could be a recipe for disaster.

Pick: Bears (-3)

Spread – New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns (-7.5 | -105)

Much like the Bears, BestOdds EDGE tells me the Cleveland Browns have also played well against the spread lately.

I’m going to continue riding the wave of insight from BestOdds EDGE.

I previously mentioned that the Browns’ offense has become a legit scoring threat, and it’s true.

In Cleveland’s first 11 games without Joe Flacco, they were averaging 21.7 points per game, and in the last four with Joe Flacco, they are averaging 26.5 points per game.

That may not seem like a big difference, but for reference, a team averaging 21.7 points per game would rank 19th in the NFL (one spot below Denver), while a team averaging 26.5 points per game would rank 7th in the NFL (one spot above Philadelphia).

Here’s the NFL team’s currently averaging over 26 points per game.

RankingPoints Per Game
1. Miami30.9
2. Dallas30.1
3. San Francisco29.6
4. Baltimore27.8
5. Detroit27.5
6. Buffalo26.9
7. Philadelphia26.1

Although the Browns’ offense has only produced a similar offense to these clubs in recent weeks, that’s good company.

With Cleveland’s stout defense and emerging offense, they should be able to win by two or more touchdowns over Trevor Siemian and the New York Jets.

Pick: Browns (-7.5)

Over – Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (o52.5 | -110)

This game will be played down in Jerry World, AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

In seven games played in this stadium, the average total has been 55.3 points.

BestOdds EDGE gives me a little more insight on the overs down in Dallas.

What should the total be this week when you take two Top-5 NFL offenses and pit them against each other?

The over has gone 10-5 in Detroit’s games and 8-7 in Dallas’ games.

That’s a cover rate of 60% on the over for both of these teams.

In their last four games, the Cowboys have allowed 25.3 points per game, while the Lions have allowed 24.3 points per game in their last four.

These defenses are not playing their best, but their offenses will have to find a way to outscore their opponents.

Honestly, I think the alternate total points of over 73.5 points (+1060) is worth a sprinkle.

I’ll say the final score will be 41-38, Cowboys.

Pick: Over 52.5

Under – Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants (u44.5 | -105)

The New York Giants benched ‘Tommy Cutlets’ in favor of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, but I’m not sure that’s enough to move the needle for the abysmal Giants’ offense.

New York is averaging only 14.3 points per game this season, and in their six home games, they are only averaging 10.2 points per game, somehow playing worse in front of their home crowd.

The under has gone 8-7 for the Rams this season, and 10-5 for the Giants.

Between both clubs, that’s a cover rate of 60% on the under.

At the time of this writing, New York’s Saquon Barkley, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Darren Waller were all listed as questionable.

There’s just nothing for me to like about this Giants’ offense.

I’ll say the final score will be 31-10, Rams.

Pick: Under 44.5

Week 17 Parlay – FanDuelOdds
Los Angeles (A) ML vs. DEN+156
Chicago (-3) vs. ATL-105
Cleveland (-7.5) vs. NYJ-105
Over 52.5 (DET vs. DAL)-110
Under 44.5 (LAR vs. NYG)-105
Week 17 Parlay Odds+3537

A $10 wager on this Week 17 parlay would win $353.71!

How To Bet NFL Parlays

A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.

Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.

You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.

Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.

How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.

The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.

It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk the money you’re prepared to lose.

If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Week 17 Odds analysis worth checking out.

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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