NFL Player Prop Bets Week 17
The end of the NFL season is approaching with just two weeks remaining as teams battle for playoff spots, division titles, and the top seed in each conference.
Category Ratings
Kansas City (15-1) locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to its 29-10 victory over Pittsburgh on Christmas.
It’s a tight race in the NFC for the top spot between Detroit (13-2), Minnesota (13-2) and Philadelphia (12-3).
We’ll provide two player props below for Sunday’s slate featuring quarterback Sam Darnold (MIN vs. GB) and wide receiver Mike Evans (TB vs. CAR)
Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.
Read our Week 17 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information on the upcoming action.
Week 17 Player Props
The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Sam Darnold over 31.5 pass attempts (-120 bet365)
After a two-game losing streak in Weeks 7 and 8, the Vikings and head coach Kevin O’Connell have let Sam Darnold air it out, and they’ve seen success doing so by reeling off eight-straight wins.
O’Connell has put his trust in the former USC Trojan, and it’s paid off. Darnold has thrown for 3,376 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 11 interceptions.
Early in the season, Darnold was usually attempting south of 30 passes, but that’s because he was missing Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson and second-year wide receiver Jordan Addison, who has been on fire lately.
Since Week 9, Darnold has attempted over 31.5 pass attempts in six of eight (75%) contests and is averaging 34 attempts per game.
The former No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft will face the Packers (11-4), allowing an average of 32.8 attempts this season.
Green Bay’s past three opponents, the Dolphins (46), Lions (32) and Seahawks (33), have all eclipsed 31.5 attempts.
The Packers have been extremely stout against the run lately. They’ve surrendered only 3.7 yards per carry (third-best in the league) in their last three outings. Throughout the year, they’ve given up just 4.1 on average (fourth-best).
Minnesota has struggled running the football and averages the second-fewest yards per carry (4.0). Attacking the Packers through the air might be the best option.
This NFC North matchup will be played in Minnesota’s U.S. Bank Stadium (a dome), so weather and wind won’t be a factor, which promotes a healthy amount of passing.
Both Minnesota and Green Bay are listed at -108 on the moneyline at FanDuel, which also could lead to a balanced game script.
The total set by most bookmakers is 48.5 points, which is the third-highest among all contests, implying a back-and-forth shootout.
Many top projection models also predict Darnold to frequently toss the pigskin on Sunday.
Model Projections for Darnold’s Pass Attempts
- Covers: 36
- ESPN: 35
- FantasyPoints.com: 35
- FantasyPros: 34.8
- Numberfire: 34.73
- RotoWire: 34.40
- Action Network: 33.50
- 4for4.com: 33.4
- BettingPros: 32.8
Mike Evans anytime TD (-125 at bet365)
Last week, we tipped Evans to eclipse 68.5 rushing and receiving yards, and he finished with 69. Talk about a sweat.
This week, he faces an excellent matchup against the Carolina Panthers, a team that has struggled against wide receivers and quarterbacks.
The Panthers have allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season (an average of one per game) and have given up six over their past five outings.
One of the touchdowns was caught by Evans in Week 12.
Carolina has also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.83% of their passes, which ranks them eighth-worst in the league.
The Texas A&M product has scored nine touchdowns in 12 games this campaign (averaging 0.75 per game).
While he’s found the end zone in six of 12 games, he scored two or more in three of them.
Evans is quarterback Baker Mayfield’s top target in general and inside the red zone. The Pro Bowl receiver has scored 32.1% of the team’s touchdowns and has 11 red zone targets in 12 contests.
He’s also the team’s deep threat, which gives him a chance to score at any given moment.
Fantasy Points Data gives him the highest separation score (0.214) among all wide receivers in the NFL this year. The tweet below shows how well Evans has created separation according to PFF.
“Mike Evans has never been one of the best wide receivers of his era”
— Salty Buccaneer🧂🏴☠️🟥🟧⬜️ (@SaltyBuc91) December 26, 2024
Meanwhile, Mike Evans (in his 11th season): pic.twitter.com/DT5kgsr6jg
Since returning from injury after missing three games due to a hamstring injury, Evans has averaged 8.4 targets per game.
The 31-year-old should continue to be heavily targeted due to being 182 yards away from 1,000 yards. He holds multiple NFL records thanks to recording 10-straight 1,000-yard seasons.
Mayfield stated he’s probably thinking more about Evans’ record than the receiver himself.
Evans will be covered primarily by a trio of Carolina defenders: Slot corner Chau Smith-Wade (70% catch rate), right corner Jaycee Horn (54% catch rate) and left corner Mike Jackson (67% catch rate).
PFF gives Evans a 90.1/100 matchup grade against the Panthers’ secondary. It is the third-highest grade among all WR/CB matchups this week.
Model Projections for Evans’ Touchdowns
- FantasyPoints.com: 0.72
- Numberfire: 0.72
- Action Network: 0.72
- 4for4.com: 0.7
- ESPN: 0.7
- BettingPros: 0.63
- FantasyPros: 0.6
- RotoWire: 0.54
