Trump Endorsement And The 2022 Midterms
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Whether an endorsement from former President Donald Trump holds weight in the 2022 midterm primaries remains to be seen, but we’re starting to see glimpses of what’s to come, and no matter the results there will be lots of action on the online betting markets.
The former president has endorsed 130 candidates since leaving the White House in races at the federal, state, and local level.
Georgia And The Incumbent
In Georgia, where he has been especially critical of the incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) for refusing to step in to overturn the results of the 2020 election in his favor, the stakes are extremely high.
“Every time you go out on a limb like that, if he does win, it strengthens him, if he doesn’t win, it weakens him,” said former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who represented the Atlanta area for 20 years.
“He knows that, and I think that’s why you’ll see him work very, very hard the next few weeks to defeat Kemp.”
Trump’s endorsements are seen as a test of his popularity within the Republican Party and his ability to maintain control over his base in his post-presidency, which is especially important if he plans on mounting a comeback in 2024.
A loss for Trump’s candidates in Georgia could also provide an incentive to the parts of the Republican Party who would like to formally move on from the former president’s message on the 2020 election and could snowball into a windfall of support for other candidates.
Unfortunately for Trump, polling in the state shows Kemp is holding a lead over Perdue and has almost 15 times as much cash on hand.
Polls Results In Georgia
A Fox News poll of Georgia Republicans released March 8 shows Kemp leading Perdue 50% to 39%. The same is true in the political betting markets, where the incumbents are leading Trump’s chosen candidates in the state.
Nationwide, an NBC News poll from late January found that most Republican voters – 56% — see themselves as more supportive of the GOP overall than Trump, while 36% said they’re more supporters of Trump than the party.
That’s down from a similar 2020 poll which found that 54% of those polled viewed themselves as more supportive of Trump than the party as a whole.
There are plenty of other question marks in the Trump endorsement world that you can capitalize on – like the PredictIt market for whom Trump will endorse next in the Alabama Republican Senate primary and the Ohio Republican Senate primary.
You can also translate this knowledge to make wagers on how the 2022 midterm results will impact what Trump does in the coming years regarding a possible presidential run in 2024.
Republicans acknowledge that the former president’s support matters, but his endorsement also has its limits.
Current markets for Trump’s endorsement in Ohio.