Odds On Politics & World Events
You can place a bet on just about anything, depending on the online sportsbook.
However, there is one niche market that has been around on offshore betting platforms for years, which is the political betting market.
Yes, Politics Betting is a thing.
And while the United States currently prohibits betting on politics since it is an unregulated market, you can still place an online sports bet on a political market while physically located in the United States. You can do so at the aforementioned offshore sportsbooks.
If you are not comfortable with an online sportsbook, which is understandable, you can still get in on all of the political action at PredictIt.
Because PredictIt is not your normal online gambling platform, it is legal in all 50 states and heavily features political markets.
So although politics can be a prickly subject with your friends and family, you can mix some fun into those tiresome debates and even profit from it by placing a bet on an upcoming political event.
In this guide, political betting will be discussed in its entirety.
And if you have never heard of betting on politics, or you have an interest but don’t know how to go about it, then this review is for you.
Politics Betting Odds Explained
You can find political betting odds on anything politics-related, depending on the mobile betting platform you are using.
If you skim through all of the available betting options, you will find that you can bet on the Biden Administration, U.S. Elections, Local and State events, Congressional events, and even World events.
While offshore sportsbooks will be more limited, the PredictIt platform has over 170 live markets to bet on as of this writing.
Overall, political betting odds work just like the odds do for sporting events. Odds will move depending on the public, polls, and the news.
For example, let’s say the Dallas Cowboys are favored by (-6.5) points against the New York Giants.
Then, QB Dak Prescott is deemed inactive for a game due to an injury. Well, the odds and the lines will shift because the stud signal-caller is sidelined.
The same can be said for political betting. If two candidates are close, then a poll puts one vastly in front of the other, then the candidate who won the poll in a blowout fashion will be heavily favored in the eyes of the open betting market.
Then you will see the candidate’s odds shift in a positive direction to reflect the poll.
Popular Politics Online Bets
Just like with sports betting, there is always a right and wrong time to place a bet. The same can be said for political betting as well.
So be sure to pay attention to the news, polls, and public perception when placing a politics wager. You can also use your own political understanding to help you place the right bet.
While you can always get the best odds on a market if you place a bet the farthest amount of time away from the potential outcome, a lot of factors can change between the time you place your wager and the time the bet is settled.
For example, if you place a bet on an election a year ahead of time, during that year, anything can happen.
Then all of a sudden, the side you chose is no longer favored. A political futures bet is just as risky as a futures market in sports betting.
Below, I will review betting examples PredictIt, which is a trading platform as well as your standard betting odds. This way, you know how both sides work.
Who Will Win The 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
This is an example from PredictIt, which is an online trading platform. Here, you will buy and sell shares of a market.
The value of the shares you bought can change over time until the conclusion of the event.
If you want to buy shares of Joe Biden, who is the clear-cut favorite, it will cost you 37 cents per “yes” share. A “no” share is 64 cents.
As we get closer to the election, the price of whichever shares that you bought will shift.
You can sell your shares at a profit or at a loss leading up to the outcome of the election. And once the market closes, you will redeem whatever shares you have left.
Arizona Republican Primary (U.S. Senate)
The favorite for the Arizona Republican Primary Senatorial election is Blake Masters(-600).
At his (-600) odds, Masters is the favorite to win with Mark Brnovich slated as the next best candidate to pull off the upset at (+350).
There is no value to betting on Masters. However, if you pay attention to the news and storylines, maybe there will be a tip in favor of Brnovich, which would trigger you to place your wager in his direction.
NATO To Invite Sweden or Finland
Here is another example from PredictIt. If you think NATO will invite one of those countries, you can buy shares of the” yes” market at 78 cents. If “no,” then those shares will cost you 22 cents.
If you buy shares of “no” and your prediction comes true, then you will be awarded $1 per share when the market closes.
If you picked yes, you will get nothing. Be sure to buy and sell shared wisely according to the news and your intuitions.
To increase your chances of winning a political bet, you must handicap your potential wagers. It works just like sports betting.
Staying on top of the news, polls and public perception will help you become a more profitable politics bettor.
Line Shopping Is Key
Whether you are placing a typical wager at a sportsbook or you are trading shares at a site like PredictIt, be sure to shop the lines.
While there are many sportsbooks offering political betting, there are not many trading platforms. However, there are two.
We already mentioned PredictIt. But did you know that you can shop their prices at Kalshi? Since PredictIt’s direct competitor is Kashi, you can shop the prices and get the best bet.
Do Your Homework
Folks, it is 2022. You can research anything at any time whether you are sitting in bed at midnight or on the go flying on a business trip on a mobile device, a tablet, or a laptop.
So why wouldn’t you research the political markets that you want to bet on?
While everyone thinks that they are an expert, even the best of the best will not rely on their intuition alone.
Expert bettors put in the work behind the scenes before placing their wager. So you should too if you want to be profitable.
Discipline is an important aspect of betting that is overlooked. Discipline is likely overlooked because it is not fun.
Many like to jump the gun and pull the trigger on an underdog that really doesn’t have a shot. Doing this will cost you a lot of money over time.
So be sure to remain disciplined and only jump on longshot wagers when you have a strong hunch, a solid tip or if the polls and storylines are suggesting an outcome that is out of the ordinary.
Major Political Events To Bet On
You can bet on politics from all over the globe, depending on the platform you are wagering on.
However, just like in sports betting, the bigger the event is, the more news there will be about it. And when there is more news, there will be more eyes will be on it.
All of those factors will correlate to more people betting on the event.
Think of the U.S. Presidential Election as the Super Bowl of politics betting. However, there always is not a lot of value in these larger events.
If you want to find value, then concentrate on smaller political markets like a local election.
U.S. Presidential Election
While the next United States Presidential Election is a few years away, you will find futures markets on the event.
You can find 2024 Presidential Election odds at both sportsbooks and at political market trading sites. You will find top favorites to win as well as longshots. You may even find some celebrity names on the betting list as well.
Presidential Election markets are heavily broken down into smaller markets. You can bet on individual party nominees(Democrat, Republican, etc.) and even favorite (Biden) versus the field markets.
Even with political betting, bettors will find prop markets. These are extremely niche markets that may be packed with value.
Here are some examples of political prop betting markets:
- The first athlete to run for the 2024 Presidential Election
- The winning party of the election
- Will a female win the Presidential Election in 2024?
Global Political Events
Outside of United States politics betting, you will find an endless amount of political markets internationally.
Just like with political props, you can find immense value in international markets.
Here are some examples of political events you can bet on:
- Brazilian Presidential winner in 2022
- Who will be the next African leader out?
- Who will be elected as the next Hungarian Prime Minister?
Best Sites For Betting On World Events
There are two ways to bet on politics in the United States.
You can use do so at an online sportsbook or you can use an online market trading platform. While using an offshore betting site is illegal in the United States, you can legally place these wagers at platforms that include PredictIt and Kalshi.
At PredictIt, online bettors can make prediction-based wagers on world events like politics. Legal in all 50 states, anyone can use PredictIt’s market trading form of wagering.
At PredictIt, you can buy and sell shares at any time leading up to the market’s closing at fluctuating prices. And once the event concludes, bettors will get $1 per share if their prediction is correct.
If you want to try out PredictIt, there is a terrific offer for patrons of BestOdds.com. New users will get an $80 deposit match bonus when they register for a new PredictIt account.
All you have to do to secure this offer is use the promo code BESTODDS during the registration process or click on the “Play Now” button on this page.
Similar to PredictIt, Kalshi is another prediction-centric online betting platform where you can place wagers on political or cultural events worldwide.
At Kalshit, you will be asked “yes” or “no” questions based on these events. If you are correct, you can win real money. You can also trade the shares you buy along the way.
Currently, the only bonus Kalshi has is their referral program. When you send a family member or a friend over to Kalshi, both of you will get $10.