bestodds logo

2024 NFL Wild Card Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 8, 2024


The playoff field is set and there are some interesting matches to kick off the NFL postseason!

Remember when the Detroit Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff?

It’ll be Stafford’s Rams vs. Goff’s Lions in the Wild Card round.

The Cleveland Browns will send out 38-year-old, 17-year veteran quarterback Joe Flacco against the 22-year-old rookie C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans.

It’ll be the oldest QB vs. the youngest QB in the Browns vs. Texans.

The Miami Dolphins scored 29.2 points per game and the Kansas City Chiefs allowed only 17.3 points per game.

It’ll be the AFC Conference’s highest-scoring offense vs. the stingiest defense when the Dolphins face the Chiefs this weekend.

Let’s delve into the six games of the Wild Card round and find some profitable wagering options.

And remember to always shop around for the best odds!

Saturday, January 13th

Cleveland Browns (-2.5, -142 ML) vs. Houston Texans (+2.5, +130 ML)

Total: Over 44.5 (-108 | FanDuel), Under 44.5 (-110 | Caesars)

The Browns and Texans just squared up back in Week 16, with Cleveland coming out on top, 36-22.

In that game, Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards, two touchdown passes and two interceptions, and wide receiver Amari Cooper set the Browns’ franchise record for most receiving yards in a game; Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns.

The biggest issue for the Texans in that loss was that rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was out with a concussion, so backup QB Davis Mills stepped in.

Slowing down Stroud will obviously be a taller task for the Browns’ defense, but Cleveland may be up to the challenge.

The Browns only allowed 164.7 passing yards per game this season, and when Stroud has faced passing defenses comparable to Cleveland’s, he has struggled.

Here’s how Stroud has fared against Top-10 passing defenses this season.

Stroud’s OpponentPassing Defense RankStroud’s Results
Week 1: Baltimore6th28/44, 242 Yds, 0 TD
Week 5: Atlanta8th20/35, 249 Yds, 1 TD
Week 6: New Orleans10th13/27, 199 Yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Week 14: New York (A)2nd10/23, 91 Yds, 0 TD

The rookie QB only competed 55% of his passes and averaged 195.3 yards through the air against better than average passing defenses.

Stroud had a soft schedule against opposing defenses, with nine of his 15 games coming against defenses that were ranked 16th or worse in passing defense.

At this stage, I feel that I can trust the 38-year-old Flacco a little more.

Pick: Browns Moneyline | Best Odds: (-142) FanDuel

Miami Dolphins (+3.5, +158 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, -180 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 44 (-110 | BetRivers)

The Miami Dolphins have been dealing with a myriad of injuries.

Here’s a list of Miami injuries, courtesy of BestOdds EDGE:

Be sure to track the injury status of these players prior to kickoff on BestOdds EDGE.

I believe that most of these injured Dolphins players, at least on the offensive side of the ball, will suit up and that will give Miami the edge in this game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing some iffy football by their standards, and my confidence in them has eroded.

The Chiefs last three games with their main starters on the field (not Week 18), they looked average.

Mahomes turned the ball over twice in a 10-point win over the 4-13 New England Patriots, then Kansas City lost to the Las Vegas Raiders when opposing quarterback Aidan O’Connell only completed nine passes for 62 yards the whole game, then the Chiefs completed a second-half comeback against the Cincinnati Bengals.

There’s nothing spectacular there, mainly because the Chiefs aren’t spectacular right now.

It’s fair to say that.

Pick: Dolphins Moneyline | Best Odds: (+158) Caesars

Sunday, January 14th

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10, +385 ML) vs. Buffalo Bills (-10, -480 ML)

Total: Over 35 (-110 | bet365), Under 35.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Pittsburgh Steelers squeezed their way into the NFL Playoffs, and now they will head into the “Rough Buff” to take on the Buffalo Bills in 20 degree weather with high winds expected.

The Steelers are probably a little less excited now.

Pittsburgh will likely field a team without linebacker T.J. Watt, and that will be a tough blow to a Steelers’ defense that is already league-average at best.

The Bills only scored 21 points against the Miami Dolphins last week, and that was a Dolphins defense without cornerback Xavien Howard and outside linebacker Bradley Chubb, so Buffalo’s offense may continue to record okay but not great offensive numbers.

Josh Allen has been a turnover machine under center for the Bills, and Allen’s connection with wide receiver Stefon Diggs hasn’t been the same as expected.

Diggs hasn’t had a 100+ yard receiving game since Week 6.

Something is off with this Bills offense, and arctic conditions may not be a great offensive catalyst.

Pick: Under 35.5 | Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Green Bay Packers (+7.5, +290 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, -340 ML)

Total: Over 50.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 50.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

The Green Bay Packers have made a surprising trip to the playoffs in the first year of the Jordan Love era.

Beating the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium is a difficult task, as Dallas has not lost a home game since September 11, 2022, the beginning of last season.

The Cowboys have gone 16-0 at home ever since.

Dallas finished the season 10-7 against the spread, including a solid 6-2 ATS in their eight home games, and the Packers were 4-5 against the spread in their nine road games.

Also, the Cowboys averaged 29.9 points per game this season, the best mark in the NFL.

In Dallas’ home games, they averaged 37.4 points per game and recorded a point differential of +172.

It’s not just the offense that excels at home, the Cowboys defense has played better at home, too.

Dallas has allowed an average of only 15.9 points at home compared to 20.9 on the road.

This rematch of the 1967 NFL Championship, known as the “Ice Bowl”, will be played in the climate-controlled environment of a domed stadium, and the Cowboys couldn’t be happier.

Pick: Dallas (-7.5) | Best Odds: (-104) FanDuel

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5, +155 ML) vs. Detroit Lions (-3, -174 ML)

Total: Over 51.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 51.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

With a total of 51.5 and a spread of 3.5 points, most sportsbooks are implying that the Rams will score 24 points and lose to the Lions by 3.5, giving Detroit 27.5, give or take the hook.

I believe that Los Angeles can score more than 24 points in this one.

The Lions’ defense allowed an average of 23.2 points per game (23rd in NFL), and in the nine games since their Week 9 bye, they’ve allowed an average of 25.6.

The Rams’ offense is much better than some of the squads that Detroit faced in the latter half of the regular season, with the Lions still allowing decent point totals despite facing the the Nick Mullens-led Minnesota Vikings twice, the lowly Denver Broncos, the inconsistent Chicago Bears, and the ho-hum New Orleans Saints in five of their last six games.

Matt Stafford has been fantastic of late, quarterbacking Los Angeles to a record of 5-1 in his last six starts and throwing 15 touchdowns to only three interceptions in the same time frame.

In those last six starts from Stafford, the Rams have averaged 31.3 points per game, and against this beatable Lions defense, Los Angeles could put up 30+ points on the scoreboard once again.

It’s difficult to deny Detroit’s offense as well, so this could be the highest scoring game of the Wild Card round.

Pick: Over 51.5 | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Monday, January 15th

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, -145 ML) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, +130 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-105 | FanDuel), Under 44 (-109 | BetRivers)

The Philadelphia Eagles lost five of their last six games entering the playoffs, and I don’t see it turning around quickly.

That includes back-to-back losses to the wildly subpar New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals.

Although Jalen Hurts and the “Brotherly Shove” is making headlines, it’s keeping the spotlight off how poor the Eagles’ defense has performed.

Philly’s defense allowed 25.2 points per game (30th in NFL), and in the last six games, they’ve allowed an average of 30.3 points with a point differential of -59.

For a little more context, if the Eagles finished the whole season with a -59 point differential, they would be between the Denver Broncos (-56) and the Tennessee Titans (-62) for 25th in the NFL.

Honestly, the Eagles have been playing like a Broncos-caliber team lately.

For the Buccaneers, they’ve won five of their last six games, with a point differential of +38.

One thing I like about Tampa Bay is their rushing defense, as they’ve only allowed an average of 95.3 rushing yards per game (5th in the NFL).

The ground game is a major key to the efficiency of Philly’s offense, and if Tampa Bay can halt the Eagles’ rushing attack, it could be a long night for Hurts and the Philadelphia offense.

Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+130) FanDuel

chevron up