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NFL Player Prop Bets | Wild Card

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Jan 9, 2024

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Last season’s Wild Card games were offensive displays, with an average final total of 55.2 points.

With all of that scoring, some interesting individual performances came with it.

San Francisco’s Brock Purdy threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns, with receiver Deebo Samuel collecting six catches for 133 yards and a touchdown.

Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys defeated Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, and in the process, threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns.

The Buffalo Bills edged out the Miami Dolphins in last year’s Wild Card round, winning 34-31, an interesting score considering that Miami’s starting quarterback was Skylar Thompson.

Buffalo’s receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis both tallied over 100 yards receiving as Josh Allen threw for 352 yards and three touchdown passes in the win.

Some players are looking to step up in an attempt to carry their respective teams to the Super Bowl, and picking up a win in the Wild Card round is the first step.

Let’s examine some matchups for individuals and find some profitable Wild Card props.

As always, with the best odds!

Baker Mayfield – QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, and with the Eagles sporting one of the worst passing defenses of any team in the playoffs, I’m going to back Baker Mayfield to have a solid performance.

I’m also backing Mayfield here because the Bucs’ rushing attack ranks dead last in the NFL, picking up an average of only 88.8 rushing yards per game.

If Tampa Bay is going to pull off an upset victory over Philly, they’ll need to beat the Eagles in the air.

This visual from BestOdds EDGE shows how Mayfield’s passing yards total has been up-and-down over the course of the season.

Mayfield finished with 237 or more passing yards in 10 of his 17 games, and he averaged 237.9 passing yards per game this season.

The Buccaneers passing defense is pretty bad too, so there should be plenty of back-and-forth action between Mayfield and Hurts, which could drive up Mayfield’s pass attempts.

When Mayfield had 35 or more passing attempts, which he reached in only five games, he averaged 249.4 yards per game.

Mayfield completed 64.3 percent of his passes in the regular season, and when QBs complete a minimum of 64% of their passes against Philadelphia, this is how they’ve fared:

PHI OpponentQuarterbackComp%Pass Yards
Week 1: New EnglandMac Jones64.8%316 Yds
Week 2: MinnesotaKirk Cousins70.5%364 Yds
Week 4: WashingtonSam Howell70.7%290 Yds
Week 7: MiamiTua Tagovailoa71.9%216 Yds
Week 8: WashingtonSam Howell75%397 Yds
Week 9: DallasDak Prescott65.9%374 Yds
Week 13: San FranciscoBrock Purdy70.4%314 Yds
Week 15: SeattleDrew Lock66.7%208 Yds
Week 17: ArizonaKyler Murray80.6%232 Yds
Week 18: New York (N)Tyrod Taylor71.9%297 Yds

In those 10 games when a QB completed at least 64% of their passes against the Eagles’ defense, the quarterbacks compiled an average of 300.8 passing yards per game.

Assuming Mayfield is going to fling it often against Philly’s defense, I’d expect him to compile at least 233 passing yards.

Pick: Mayfield – OVER 232.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Najee Harris – RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

In the three games since Mason Rudolph has taken over as starting quarterback for Pittsburgh, the Steelers are averaging 27 points per game, 10 points more on average prior to Rudolph’s emergence.

Coinciding with Rudolph’s run as QB1 is a heavier workload for running back Najee Harris.

This graph from BestOdds EDGE shows a clear rise in workload for the Pittsburgh running back.

In the last three weeks, since Rudolph stepped in, Harris is averaging 24 carries per game, and before Week 16, he had a season-high of 19 rushing attempts and averaged only 13.1 carries per game.

The Wild Card matchup with the Buffalo Bills will be a difficult one, but with awful weather expected, the Steelers may want to keep their offense on the ground.

A ground-based approach may be the best option for Pittsburgh anyway.

Whenever Harris collects at least 50 yards, the Steelers are 8-2.

Pick: Harris – OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Puka Nacua – WR, Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua has surprised in his rookie season, setting the new NFL rookie receiving yards record with 1,486 yards.

Not bad for a fifth-round draft pick.

In his playoff debut, Nacua will face the Detroit Lions and will be largely shadowed by Lions’ cornerback Jerry Jacobs, and that’s great news for Nacua.

Here’s how opposing receivers have fared when predominantly covered by Jerry Jacobs in the last six games:

DET OpponentWR with JacobsWR Results
Week 13: New OrleansChris Olave5 Rec, 119 Yds
Week 14: ChicagoD.J. Moore6 Rec, 68 Yds, TD
Week 15: DenverCourtland Sutton5 Rec, 71 Yds
Week 16: MinnesotaJustin Jefferson6 Rec, 141 Yds, TD
Week 17: DallasBrandin Cooks5 Rec, 60 Yds, TD
Week 17: MinnesotaJustin Jefferson12 Rec, 192 Yds, TD

Nacua should get plenty of looks from Matthew Stafford in this matchup.

Those six performances average to 6.5 receptions for 180.5 receiving yards.

While Nacua will have to compete with his fellow wide receiver Cooper Kupp for targets, Nacua is still recorded 9.4 targets a game.

And when Nacua hauls in at least five catches, he’s averaging 110.2 receiving yards per game.

Do I think Nacua will have at least five catches in this game? Yes, I do.

Pick: Nacua – OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) bet365

David Njoku – TE, Cleveland Browns

The Houston Texans’ defense has struggled with slowing down opposing tight ends, and this week they’ll have the task of shutting down Cleveland Browns’ tight end David Njoku.

Back in Week 16, when the Browns defeated the Texans, it was Amari Cooper who stole the headlines with his 265 yard receiving performance, but Njoku still had a very nice game.

Njoku caught six passes for 44 yards and a touchdown in that contest, and it was another impressive outing in his late season hot stretch; catching at least six passes in each of the final four games and scoring four total touchdowns.

Houston has allowed the most catches to tight ends this season (107), the fourth-most receiving yards (1,024), but somehow, only five touchdown receptions to tight ends. The number of tight ends scoring against the Texans could be way higher.

The Texans are going to key-in on Cooper to keep him from getting anywhere close to franchise record receiving yards numbers again, and that’ll leave Njoku open to cut through the middle of Houston’s porous defensive secondary.

Pick: Njoku – Anytime Touchdown

Best Odds: (+200) bet365

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