Updated: Oct 3, 2022
Parlay Picks by Will Armitage. Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower leagues for decades. He since has switched allegiance to the EPL’s Arsenal. Every year since 1994, he has bet on the Minnesota Vikings to lift the Vince Lombardi. He is still waiting to be paid….
Every week this season, I identify what I deem to be a value five-leg parlay where I choose one dawg moneyline wager, in addition to an over and under and two spread bets.
Last week’s selections were certainly my low point of the season to date!
The final leg of the Rams against the 49ers hasn’t yet taken place. Yet, all my attention is now on my Week 5 picks.
Of my four bets, every single one failed! Some of my colleagues like to bet the opposite of my selections. Well, their “reverse” parlay is looking exciting right now…
Anyways, back to this week’s games, should I manage to land all five below, then the return for Week 5 would be just over +3000.
Remember to seek out the BestOdds to maximize your profits should all five be winners!
Moneyline – Texans Vs. Jaguars (Best Odds – +265)
If armchair fans across the country were obligated to pay $1 to watch their top game of Week 5 and the funds then split out according to each game’s popularity.
I would hazard that this would be the least popular game of the weekend.
I mean no offense to fans of either the Texans or the Jags, but neither franchise is blowing particularly hot at the moment.
It will likely take until the second part of this decade before we see either side threatening for Wild Card slots in the postseason.
However, from a betting perspective, one shouldn’t care about how teams fare in the popularity stakes; rather it is about seeking one’s alpha, edge, value, or any other such comparable term.
The preseason’s biggest dawgs meet each other in Florida.
Jacksonville was brought back to earth by the Eagles on Sunday.
It would be all too typical of this franchise to throw in another poor performance, just when their fans saw glimmers of hope.
Over/Under – Giants Vs. Packers (Played in London) (41.5) (-110)
For the second week running, my selection for the Under is from the game played across the pond in London, England.
The Vikings and Saints may have given us an over on Sunday. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice.
We all know how brilliant and TD-happy the Pack are when they play at Lambeau. Now they must attempt to replicate this home form in Tottenham Hotspur’s soccer home.
As I mentioned last week, the Under has been the hot pick for these games since Tottenham started hosting games at the expense of Wembley Stadium, where England’s soccer team plays.
The Giants seem incapable of racking up the points in recent years and they will not provide much excitement for London’s passionate and knowledgeable NFL fans.
Green Bay will waltz to a comfortable victory in a one-sided and low-scoring game.
When I first wrote up my selections for this week, the total was way up at 46.5. It’s now fallen by five points.
This makes me a bit nervous, but I’ll stick to my original selection. The books have priced it aggressively lower.
However, I don’t think it’s low enough!
Spread – Bears Vs. Vikings (-7) (-110)
Much as the Tottenham Hotspur stadium appears for a second week running, so too do the Chicago Bears.
Week 4’s visit to the Giants did not go as I had expected with the Bears not covering the spread.
I now expect the same to happen again this week
Since the turn of the millennium, the Bears have won just 7 times at the home of their great divisional rivals.
Half the games have resulted in victories for the Vikings by at least a touchdown.
A 7-point spread, for a Minnesota franchise challenging to dethrone Green Bay for top honors in the NFC North, should prove well within their grasp.
I expect a one-sided affair at the US Bank Stadium in favor of the Vikes.
Over/Under – Bengals Vs. Ravens (47.5) (-110)
Back in the summer, I mentioned that of this week’s games, I think this AFC North match-up stands out as one where come gametime, we would see the market higher.
The total was 45 back then and I stated that it could even be a field goal above the current best price.
Last season’s surprise team and Super Bowl finalists traveling almost exactly due east to Maryland where we shall see two contrasting, yet mercurial young QBs strut their stuff.
Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow were born less than a month apart, a quarter of a century ago.
As to which one will come out on top come to the end of the final quarter, who knows?
What matters most for this week’s parlay is that they both fire and the fans at the M&T Bank Stadium are treated to a high-scoring spectacle.
Time will tell, but it seems like a value bet at this time.
The books are split between 47.5 and 48.5 for this particular market currently.
BetRivers are best priced on this offering -108 odds on 47.5.
Don’t forget to shop around for those best odds and lines!
Spread – Steelers (+14) Vs. Bills (-110)
This fixture has occurred just six times since 2000.
The Steelers have come out on top five times on their travels to the Highmark, with the Bills securing their sole home victory in 2020.
Buffalo enjoyed a remarkable 2021 season and they remain one of the top fancies for Super Bowl success.
However, the betting trends would indicate that Pittsburgh with a whopping two touchdown start could be a reasonable proposition.
Bogey teams are a common phenomenon across all sports and I sense that the Steelers’ strong showings at the Highmark can continue.
They returned to winning ways there on the first week of the 2021 season with a 23-16 success to exact revenge on their 2020 reversal.
The Bills would sometimes throw in a stinker of a performance last season; think back to their embarrassing losses to the Colts and Jags.
I believe that the 2022 Steelers will create one of those performances to run the Bills much closer to where the spread currently sits.
The +700 on the moneyline didn’t quite do it, but two touchdowns on the spread are too tempting for me not to take.
For those of you wishing to follow certain of my colleagues and choose a “reverse” parlay, please note the variance of odds on the Bills.
They range from the best odds of -800 with Caesars to the worst odds of -1099 at PointsBet!
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.
Check out NFL parlay bets week 6 for betting ideas and to lock in early odds.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL week 5 odds analysis worth checking out.