Thomas Snodgrass
Updated: Oct 3, 2023
Last week’s parlay had to lean against a wall, because it only had one leg to stand on.
Seemingly, the football universe was not in my favor.
Deshaun Watson decided 90 minutes before kickoff that he wasn’t going to play, Josh Allen evaporated the Dolphins’ defense, Joe Burrow was NOT very ‘Joe Cool’ on Sunday, and the Washington-Philadelphia contest turned into a surprising overtime shootout.
Thank you, really bad defenses in the Denver-Chicago game for allowing the over to hit.
Can’t do much worse than last week, so it’s time to grab those crutches, and move on to Week 5.
Using the same format as last week’s parlay, I will choose an underdog moneyline, one bet to go over the total, one bet to go under the total, and two spreads.
Let’s compile a better parlay for Week 5 of the NFL season!
For this parlay, I’m placing my slip at FanDuel.
Moneyline – Houston Texans (+106) vs. Atlanta Falcons
C.J. Stroud appears to be the best quarterback in the 2023 Draft class.
Houston didn’t miss with this pick.
C.J. Stroud is only the 6th player in NFL history to average 300 pass YDs and have 0 INTs through the first 4 games in a season 🤯
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 2, 2023
Elite company 🔥 pic.twitter.com/dYbVSk3rNW
While Falcons’ running back Bijan Robinson looks like a ‘can’t-miss prospect’ himself, the Falcons may need help from their second-year QB Desmond Ridder to hang with this upstart Houston offense.
If Atlanta is playing from behind, which I suspect they might, they’ll need Ridder to fling it.
That could be risky.
Although the Texans’ offense is making a lot of headlines, their passing defense is currently in the top-10 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (195 yds/game, 9th in the NFL).
Atlanta’s passing defense has been very solid as well, allowing just 176 passing yards per game, but at this point, Stroud is the superior quarterback to Ridder.
The best man under center will win this game.
Spread – Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions (-8.5 | -115)
I know Bryce Young is a rookie quarterback, but I feel like the Panthers have a better shot at winning their first game if veteran QB Andy Dalton is on the field.
He’s only played three games, but Young did manage to record a career-high 204 passing yards last week.
That’s an incredibly underwhelming display for all of the melancholy Carolina fans out there.
It’s the complete opposite for the Lions’ fanbase right now.
Detroit is 3-1, just one overtime loss to the Seahawks away from an undefeated start, and this team already has fans looking for hotel rooms in Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58.
When the Panthers look as bad as they do, and the Lions look as great as they do, I’m surprised this spread hasn’t hit double digits yet.
I’m thinking it could hit 10 points on the spread by the weekend.
I think we could even see Andy Dalton on the field again after Carolina goes down by 30 points and benches their starters in the fourth quarter.
Spread – Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5 | -105) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Chiefs had to escape New York in Week 4 with a narrow 23-20 win over the Zach Wilson-led Jets.
Wilson amazingly outdueled Mahomes last week, but Mahomes will probably take his frustrations out on this weak Minnesota passing defense on Sunday.
The Vikings allowed Justin Herbert to complete 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3, then followed up that outing by allowing Bryce Young to throw for a career-high in yards.
If Young can throw for 204 yards against this Minnesota defense, I believe Mahomes will double that number.
Kirk Cousins and the Vikes will fall behind and I don’t believe they will keep up.
Also, if Taylor Swift is there, the Chiefs will probably win by three touchdowns. If she’s not there, then maybe they only win by two.
With this -5.5 point spread, we only need one.
Over – New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (o43.5 | -110)
The Broncos allowed Justin Fields to throw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns.
This Denver D is embarrassingly bad.
I’d even expect Zach Wilson to put together another nice game this week.
With Garrett Wilson on the outside and the combo of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook in the backfield, there are a litany of ways to score against the Broncos’ defense.
New York scored a season-high 22 points against the Bills in Week 1. I believe they will record their first 30+ point total in Week 5.
The Jets defense is not nearly as bad as Denver’s, only the Cowboys have recorded 30 points on them thus far.
The Broncos won’t score 30 points, but 15 is within reach.
The ground game has been rough for Denver, aside from Jaleel McLaughlin’s random 72 yards on seven carries last week.
Sean Payton needs to get his passing game going under Russell Wilson or this season could be the last we see of this head coach-QB tandem.
I’ll say the final score will be 31-16, Jets.
Under – New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots (u40.5 | -115)
The Patriots benched quarterback Mac Jones last week, bringing in backup QB Bailey Zappe.
Well, they both looked pretty bad.
This New England offense is about as stale as a day-old donut at Dunkin’.
The lack of production from this Patriots offense is getting hard to swallow for coach Bill Belichick.
He’s seen enough, and frankly, so have we.
Things aren’t exactly concrete on New Orleans’ sideline either.
Saints’ quarterback Derek Carr has already suffered through injuries, but has looked bland when healthy, too.
Jameis Winston has been an uninspiring backup, and Taysom Hill continues to do Taysom Hill things.
These offenses are just plain weird.
New Orleans did get Alvin Kamara back recently, but with that quagmire of a QB depth chart, I don’t think Kamara will really move the needle for this offense.
New England (10th in the NFL) and New Orleans (12 in the NFL) have held strong against opposing passing attacks, so regardless of who is under center for either team, this game could become a punt fest.
NFL Week 4 Parlay Odds – FanDuel | |
Parlay Legs | Odds |
Houston (ML) vs. Atlanta | +106 |
Detroit (-8.5) vs. Carolina | -115 |
Kansas City (-5.5) vs. Minnesota | -105 |
OVER 43.5 (NYJ vs. DEN) | -110 |
UNDER 40.5 (NO vs. NE) | -115 |
Parlay Odds | +2583 |
Good luck to all of you with your parlays for Week 5 of the NFL season.
How To Bet NFL Parlays
A parlay bet is a sports wager that combines several bets on one ticket alone.
Usually, you would go with moneyline bets but can use spreads, totals, and futures.
You can include props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up to 15 or more depending on the sportsbook.
Parlays are wholly customizable meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go.
How many sides will be included, and how difficult is it to make each leg of the parlay or do the same game parlays.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds.
It’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.
If you fancy regular bets, we got the NFL Week 5 odds analysis worth checking out.