Odds For NFL Week 4
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We have officially reached the quarter-way point of the NFL season, and by god does it go fast.
Sportsbooks have posted Week 4 lines to view and bet on, and this week’s slate includes mouthwatering matchups on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Which teams should win their Week 4 matchups? Which teams will cover their Week 4 spreads?
Read on for betting odds, picks, and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Thursday Night Football
Miami Dolphins (+3, +135 ML) Vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3, -140 ML)
The Bengals are going to be the most volatile team in the NFL this season.
They’re coming off three wild matchups against three underwhelming teams (Pittsburgh, Dallas, New York Jets), and this should be a similarly intriguing matchup.
The Bengals are still rather weak in the secondary, and that generally means Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase have to rescue the team during games.
The Bengals finished 24th in Pass Defense DVOA last season and seem particularly vulnerable to speed.
The Dolphins have all the speed in the world on the outside, as long as Tua Tagovailoa can get the ball to them in space. Mike McDaniel is superb at that.
Given the high variability, I’m willing to take a shot with the Dolphins on the ML at plus money. Plus, the short week only means higher variance, which makes me inclined to take the underdog more.
My pick: Miami Dolphins ML (+135) | Playable at number
Game Kick Off – 1 p.m. EST
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, -135 ML) Vs. New Orleans Saints (+3, +120 ML)
The Vikings feel like the better team. They have a better quarterback.
The front seven is slightly more talented on paper. And the Saints are going through growing pains with a new head coach.
But can the Vikings go across the pond to London, England and win a game as favorites?
The scary part is the Saints’ defense. They finished third last year in Defense DVOA and second in EPA per play allowed. Marshawn Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu anchor a solid secondary while Cam Jordan and Demario Davis cause damage in the front seven.
The Vikings will need a good pass-rush balance with Dalvin Cook, but the Saints finished first in Rush EPA per play allowed last season and third in Pass EPA per play allowed.
It’s a very interesting matchup, but in the NFL, I will always bet the better defense when they play on neutral turf.
With some books offering +2.5, if you believe the Saints will cover, make sure you look at Caesars or BetRivers which are +3.
My pick: New Orleans Saints +3 (-110) | Playable at number
Week 4: Cleveland Browns (-3, -145 ML) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3, +139 ML)
I look at this Falcons team, and I see some intriguing young secondary pieces and Grady Jarrett.
Kyle Pitts is around, too, but he’ll be catching so many double teams that it may not make a difference.
This plays into Cleveland’s hands. They don’t want to pass, they want to run the ball.
And they have the offensive line to take down an Atlanta defensive front that finished fourth-to-last in Defensive Rush Success Rate in 2021. It doesn’t look much better, either.
The only way the Falcons can stop the Browns’ offensive rush attack – which finished first in the NFL in Rush DVOA behind one of the best offensive lines in the league – is to stack the box.
Jacoby Brissett should be able to complete enough passes off play action there to cover the relatively small spread.
My pick: Cleveland Browns -3 (-110) | Playable at number
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, -275 ML) Vs. Houston Texans (+6.5, +250 ML)
Home underdogs catching over a touchdown have covered the spread at a 55% clip since 2004.
A $100 bettor playing every team in that spot would be up over $1,100 for a 5% ROI.
This trend is 30-18 over just the last three seasons, good for a 62.5% clip.
It’s too sharp of a spot to ignore. The Chargers are impressive, but I’m somewhat bullish on the Texans in these big underdog spots.
They covered three of their last four games in 2021, catching at least a touchdown in each game.
The Titans have not been blown away yet this season. With the Chargers reeling from their embarrassing crushing by the Jags on Sunday, the Texans with a touchdown start seem too generous.
My pick: Houston Texans +6.5 (+100) | Playable at number
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, +260 ML) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7, -300 ML)
The Jaguars are not a good football team. By all accounts, they are the worst team in the NFL.
But the Eagles should not be laying over six points against anyone.
Philadelphia has a very adept rushing attack, but that does not mean they are built to blow teams out. Jalen Hurts still has a lot to prove before the Eagles are considered a high-volume offense.
They may have only suffered one defeat between them this season. I still expect the wheels to come off soon.
My pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-110) | Playable at number
New York Jets (+4, +167 ML) Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, -175 ML)
Mike Tomlin is the ultimate “Rah-Rah” guy. When his team is down-and-out, he knows how to put together the right game plan and get his guys involved.
He’s a remarkable 45-23-2 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career.
This is the opposite of this spot. The lowly Jets come to town after the Steelers disappeared for the second half against the Browns almost 10 days ago. This screams stale, sleeper spot.
Logically then, Tomlin is just 78-91-2 ATS as a favorite in his career.
This is a great spot for the Jets – who have characteristically struggled this year – to jump Tomlin and the Steelers early.
Plus, the talent differential isn’t that high. The Steelers defense is long past being good.
I reckon a public vote on Joe Flacco versus Mitch Trubisky would be an even split.
I love this spot for the Jets, especially given they’re catching over a field goal.
My pick: New York Jets +4 (-110) | Playable at number
Chicago Bears (+3, +140) Vs. New York Giants (-2.5, -140 ML)
The Giants will need to run past the Bears to win this game.
I think they can do that, considering the Bears finished 25th in Rush EPA per play allowed in 2021 behind a bottom-10 front seven via Defensive Line Yards.
Give the ball to Saquon Barkley and an upgraded Giants offensive line and watch them win this one. I’m definitely not comfortable laying the points with the Giants, however, and would rather bet the ML at no worse than this number.
Caesars has the best odds on this game with -140. BetRivers have the worst odds up at -175.
If New York emerges victorious, those who bet with Caesars would win 25% more than those who bet with BetRivers!! Remember to shop around for the best odds at all times!
My pick: New York Giants ML (-140) | Playable at number
Washington Commanders (+3, +145 ML) Vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, -152 ML)
NL East battles are never pretty. They’re usually grinders, and a divisional road dog catching three points feels like the sharper spot.
The question is, where can the Commanders compete here?
Washington finished 2021 with the seventh-best Rush Defense DVOA, and so they hopefully won’t allow Dallas to establish the run – which Dak Prescott loves to do so he can play-action on big pass plays.
The Commanders are exceedingly weak in the secondary, however, and Dak should shred them.
Carson Wentz will have to keep up but will be facing the pass defense that finished second in Pass Defense DVOA and Pass EPA per play allowed.
The Cowboys also finished 2021 with the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league, and we know how Wentz can fold under pressure.
Alas, I am forced to lay the points with Dallas.
My pick: Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-110) | Playable at number
Tennessee Titans (+3.5, +167 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3, -165 ML)
This is a tough game to pick.
There’s no sharp angle, as Vegas values these two teams the same given the usual field-goal advantage given to the home team on the spread.
Generally, I take better defense at home. The Colts are a top-10 defense, but that’s grounded by their front-seven run defense, as the Colts finished third in 2021 in Rush Defense DVOA.
The big question is if Ryan Tannehill can create offense without the play-action, which I expect to be mostly neutralized in this game.
I think that answer is probably no, but the three-point spread is too fair for me to project value. And given there’s no solid situational spot for both sides, I’ll pass on this one unless the Titans line gets high enough.
My pick: Pass | Play Titans +4.5 if it gets there
Seattle Seahawks (+6, +225 ML) Vs. Detroit Lions (-6, -245 ML)
The Lions being favored is a sight for sore eyes. Detroit were underdogs in every game in 2021 and haven’t been favored since they were laying 3 against the Panthers in November of the COVID season.
The Lions lost that game 20-0, by the way.
I think they lose here, too.
The Seahawks are going to pound the football with Rashaad Penny and an offensive line that has some upside.
The Seahawks tend to be efficient in the rushing game and can move the chains and keep possession.
The Lions beefed up the defensive line in the draft, but they added two pass rushers.
After finishing among the bottom-five teams in Rush EPA per play and Rush Success Rate allowed in 2021, that unit doesn’t look very promising.
I’ll take the Seahawks to grind this one out, despite the contrasting starts to their seasons.
My pick: Seattle Seahawks +6 (-110) | Playable at number
Buffalo Bills (-3, -165 ML) Vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3, +150 ML)
The Ravens are getting too much respect here.
They have an average-to-below-average defense and will need all sorts of Lamar Jackson magic to outplay Josh Allen and the Bills’ top-tier defense.
It’s not the sharpest move to bet on road favorites in the NFL, but I can’t help but take the Bills here.
My pick: Buffalo Bills ML (-165) | Playable at number.
Game Kick Off – 4 p.m. EST
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, +104 ML) Vs. Carolina Panthers (-1, -115 ML)
The Panthers seem to be getting a lot of credit with this line.
It has swung around from the Cardinals being 1.5 point favorites to being 1.5-point underdogs.
But I’m always willing to fade Kliff Kingsbury in this position and the Panthers have to win sometimes.
But while Kingsbury is 8-14 ATS as a favorite in his career, that includes a 4-3 ATS mark on the road.
The true-talent differential in this game is too much to ignore, especially at the quarterback position. Even with Baker Mayfield playing well/poorly, Kyler Murray can run circles around him when healthy.
My pick: Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (-110) | Playable at number
New England Patriots (+10, +340 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-10, -385 ML)
The Packers are the much better team and are likely worthy of laying ten points at home.
But I can’t bet against Belichick catching so many points. He’s going to draw up the perfect game plan to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands by running the ball through a Green Bay defense that finished 30th in Rush EPA per play allowed last season.
Belichick’s Patriots also tend to play up-and-down to their competition, especially in the early season – remember the Buccaneers game in 2021?
Rodgers may go full superman to win this game, but Belichick will keep this game close. I see this coming down to a field goal.
New England at double digits is simply too tempting to overlook and is one of my bets of the season to date.
My pick: New England Patriots +10 (-110) | Playable at number
Denver Broncos (+2, +110 ML) Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1, -116 ML)
I think the Raiders are overvalued here.
The Broncos have a better overall roster and a better quarterback when Russell Wilson is healthy.
The Raiders have the pieces, but Josh McDaniels is still going through growing pains and hasn’t put it all together. Las Vegas is now the only team in the league not to win in their first three games this season!
Also, this is a big look-ahead spot for the Raiders, who travel to Kansas City next week for Monday Night Football. Can you say… sleepy.
The Broncos will have to play on Thursday Night Football this week and will likely need the victory.
Rather than bet on the spread, I’ll take the moneyline as this returns better.
My pick: Denver Broncos ML (+110) | Playable at number
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, +115 ML) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, -135 ML)
Our Monday and Sunday Night Football games this week will both be revenge spots.
This one is from the 2020 Super Bowl, as Patrick Mahomes tries to win in Raymond James Stadium on a smaller stage.
I’m not sure if he gets it done, but I’m unwilling to fade him.
When I first wrote about this game in the summer, the Chiefs were 2.5-point underdogs. Now, they are 2.5-point favorites.
It’s for a reason.
The GOAT is creaking at the seams and struggled against the Pack on Sunday.
We have no choice but to take the points with Mahomes and the Chiefs.
My pick: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-110) | Playable at number
Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams (+2, +108 ML) Vs. San Francisco 49ers (PK, -112 ML)
What a great revenge spot for the 49ers, who will look to get back at the Rams for the come-from-behind victory in the NFC Championship game.
And that’s precisely what they’ll do.
Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 7-3 ATS vs. Sean McVay’s Rams in the regular season and have won four straight against them.
Shanahan has owned McVay in the past and it took an all-time collapse for McVay’s Rams to overcome that in the playoffs.
The lines are varied in this MNF game. The Rams were clear 2 point favorites over the summer.
But the current Super Bowl champions are not blowing away their opponents. Now they a best-priced 2-point underdog with BetRivers.
A Pick’em on San Francisco with Caesars is my take on this final game of Week 4.
My pick: San Francisco 49ers PK (-110)
Check out next week’s NFL betting odds.