NFL Player Prop Bets Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback Baker Mayfield collected 317 passing yards against the Chicago Bears in Week 2.

It was the first time Mayfield surpassed 300 passing yards in a game since Week 5 of the 2021 season, when he was still under center for the Cleveland Browns.

It took Mayfield 707 days to throw for 300 yards once again.

The Buccaneers will host the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 3.

The Eagles allowed New England’s Mac Jones to throw for 316 yards on Sunday Night Football in Week 1 and Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins to total 364 passing yards on Thursday Night Football in Week 2.

That’s two quarterbacks eclipsing 300 passing yards against this Philly defense in four days.

Mayfield has an opportunity to make it a three-peat on 300-yard passers against the Eagles to kickoff the 2023 season.

Who knows? Mayfield might have to wait another 707 days.

Whichever outcome you find more likely, Mayfield does have an interesting 230.5 passing yards prop this week, with best odds at Bet365.

Let’s take a look at some more solid prop bets for this NFL Sunday.

Deshaun Watson – QB, Cleveland Browns

From the former Browns’ QB, to the current.

The days of Watson slinging the ball all over the field, and being an annual contender to lead the league in passing yards, feels like ancient history at this point.

I’m not looking for Watson to lead the league in yards, just surpass his passing yards prop of 222.5 in Week 3.

Watson faces the Tennessee Titans this week, and it should be a good opportunity for Watson to become the head honcho of this Cleveland offense now that running back Nick Chubb is on the shelf.

Tennessee has allowed 305 passing yards per game on the young season, allowing exactly 305 passing yards to Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers in the first two games.

Watson doesn’t need 305 passing yards, just 223, and I believe he’ll reach that number.

Pick: Watson – OVER 222.5 Passing Yards

Best Odds: (-114) FanDuel

Javonte Williams – RB, Denver Broncos

If the Broncos can hang around in their Week 3 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, then they shouldn’t abandon their running game.

Essentially, I’m betting on the game script just as much as I am betting on Denver running back Javonte Williams to usurp his rushing prop set at 49.5.

The Dolphins defense got destroyed by the Los Angeles Chargers ground game in Week 1, allowing Austin Ekeler to run for 117 yards, Josh Kelley to run for 91, and Justin Herbert to run for 18 yards, too.

All three of Ekeler, Kelley, and Herbert picked up rushing touchdowns too, for what it’s worth.

Assuming Williams can get at least 12 carries, I like his chances to pick up plenty of yards on the ground this week.

Pick: Williams – OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Best Odds: (-110) Bet365

Travis Kelce – TE, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs take on the Chicago Bears this week, and that’s good news for this Kansas City offense.

The Bears have a few injuries in their defensive secondary, including safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Kyler Gordon.

Oh, yeah! And the Bears’ defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned!

The defensive side of the ball is souring quickly for The Monsters of the Midway.

Great news for Travis Kelce.

Kelce caught just four passes for 26 yards and a touchdown in his first outing of 2023, a 17-9 Chiefs win over the Jaguars in Week 2.

This Chicago defense allowed 245 yards and three touchdowns to Jordan Love of the Packers in Week 1, then got peppered by Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield in Week 2.

I can only imagine what Patrick Mahomes could do against ‘The Monstrosity of the Midway’.

As Mahomes’ top receiver, Kelce is certain to chalk up some numbers.

Pick: Kelce – OVER 74.5 Receiving Yards

Best Odds: (-110) BetMGM

Sam LaPorta – TE, Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions dropped their home-opener to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, and I expect them to bounce back at Ford Field in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons’ defense has done a decent job of controlling the passing game, allowing just 148.5 passing yards per game.

That number might seem really low, but they did face Jordan Love and Carolina’s rookie QB Bryce Young in the last two weeks, so it may be somewhat misleading.

Although Atlanta has kept opposing passers from picking up large passing yardage totals, they still allowed Love to throw for three touchdowns last week.

In Week 1, the Falcons allowed tight end Hayden Hurst to snag Bryce Young’s first career touchdown pass.

This week, I believe we’ll see Lions’ tight end Sam LaPorta catch his first career touchdown against Atlanta.

With the Falcons’ defensive secondary focusing on wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the defensive front seven focusing on keeping Jahmyr Gibbs in check, LaPorta is going to slip right past this defense.

Pick: LaPorta – Any Time Touchdown

Best Odds: (+230) FanDuel