Odds For NFL Week 18

Will Armitage

Updated: Jan 2, 2023

We’ve reached the final week of the NFL season.

RedZone is gone, and our Sunday football binges won’t be relived for almost eight months.

So, enjoy it while it lasts.

Sportsbooks have posted Week 18 lines to view and bet on.

Which teams will cover their Week 18 spreads? Which teams will win outright?

With NFL odds for Week 18 in, read on for our picks and analysis for the final week of the NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5, +275 ML) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (-7, -285 ML)

This spread market has moved by a whole two touchdowns since the season began.

In August the Bucs were the favorites by a touchdown heading to Georgia. Today, it’s the home team who is giving the visitors a touchdown start.

The Buccaneers are short on depth on the offensive line, and Grady Jarret has a history of sacking Tom Brady.

The Bucs are probably sleepwalking through Week 18, too, while the young Falcons roster is fighting for roster spots next season.

I think this line is well set and it doesn’t tempt me. The GOAT has taken them to the playoffs yet again, thanks to his usual fourth-quarter heroics on Sunday.

I’ll pass on this divisional battle, especially as we don’t know how much game time will be given to Mr. Brady.

My pick: Pass

New England Patriots (+8.5, +320 ML) Vs. Buffalo Bills (-7.5, -370 ML)

You need to bet on Bill Belichick when he’s down and out.

After last year’s disaster against the Bills in the last half of the season and the playoffs, everyone is going to bet on the Bills.

But giving Belichick over seven points is too many in any situation.

Belichick is going to scheme his way in this game, despite the difference in talent. It’s what he has done his entire career.

The Patriots likely don’t win this one, but they should keep the game within a touchdown. It’s always a profitable venture betting on divisional road underdogs, so let’s do that here.

If you’re really bullish and think New England can actually win it, then head to BetMGM. They have the best odds on the moneyline at +320.

My pick: New England Patriots +8.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, -115 ML) Vs. Chicago Bears (+2.5, +106 ML)

This line is insane.

The Vikings are safely in the playoffs. They have an explosive offense and an above-average defense.

The Bears are a dead football team with a dead football roster and a quarterback who just can’t figure it out.

He’s an admittedly fine runner, but the throwing part leaves a lot to be desired!

Weird things happen this late in the NFL season, but this is as straightforward as it gets. Give me the Vikings at anything less than a field goal.

My pick: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | Playable to -2.5 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5, +236 ML) Vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6, -265 ML)

The Ravens have a loaded roster.

Especially on defense, where I see two guys in the front seven and three in the secondary that I consider plus players.

Those guys are going to hound Joe Burrow and the electric Bengals’ receiving core all day long. Especially when the Bengals’ offensive line is riddled with question marks.

I’m also not sold on the Bengals’ defense. They have talent in the secondary, but less so in the front seven and the Ravens want to run the ball.

Giving John Harbaugh and the Ravens a touchdown is a gift.

My pick: Baltimore Ravens +6.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, -160 ML) Vs. Denver Broncos (+3.5, +145 ML)

The Chargers have talent at every position. They’re arguably the most stacked roster in the NFL.

The Broncos are mediocre and Russell Wilson has stunk this season. He is running into a secondary that includes Derwin James, Bryce Callahan, and Asante Samuel Jr.

I’ll bet on the Chargers converting their fourth downs and competing in this game.

My pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-112) | Playable at number

Detroit Lions (+4.5, +185 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5, -200 ML)

The Lions tend to compete in these games.

They’re also better at the end of the season than at the beginning of the season, as Dan Campbell is consistently improving his roster pieces.

Two things will have to happen for the Lions to cover the four and a half:

  1. The Lions will have to run the ball effectively and play keep away from Aaron Rodgers
  2. Detroit’s defensive linemen will have to pressure an underwhelming Packers offense

Considering the Lions’ talented offensive line and the holes in the Packers’ interior offensive line, I think this happens.

I’m also happy to catch close to a touchdown with a divisional road underdog.

The Packers are on fire at the moment, but if you fancy the Lions on the moneyline, then head to BetRivers.

They currently have the best odds.

My pick: Detroit Lions +4.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Houston Texans (+3, +145 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3, -150 ML)

This line is probably about right.

The Colts emphasize the run.

Their quarterback situation is the worst in the league with injuries stacking up in that position.

Whoever is at the helm, is complemented by some underrated skill weapons. Simply put, this isn’t an offense that likes to blow teams out.

The Texans will be frisky with Davis Mills under center, who has competed in games he never should have.

I’ll be betting on Houston.

My pick: Houston Texans +3 (-110) | Playable at number

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, -400 ML) Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5, +350 ML)

The Chiefs have a history of letdowns in spots like this.

Patrick Mahomes is just 3-7 ATS as a road favorite from Week 11 on.

Think about the Bengals last season. They managed to grind out a late-season victory as home underdogs against Mahomes on their way to making the Super Bowl.

I see Andy Reid and Mahomes laying an egg in this one. They nearly chucked the game away against the Broncos on Sunday.

I predict another ugly victory by less than a score for Kansas City.

My pick: Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (-110) | Playable at number

New York Jets (+3.5, +160) Vs. Miami Dolphins (-3, -170 ML)

The Dolphins should win this game comfortably.

The Jets are a cold-weather team that has to travel down to south Florida in early January.

While the sharp line is with the Jets as a divisional road underdog catching over a field goal, the Jets don’t have the pieces to compete.

The Jets are particularly weak on defense.

I don’t think Tua or Teddy are great quarterbacks, but Miami has tons of talent at other skill positions. I can see Mike McDaniel scheming his way through this one.

If you disagree and believe that New York will finish their season on a high, then head to the world’s most popular sportsbook Bet365.

They have the standout best odds for the Jets on the moneyline.

My pick: Miami Dolphins -3 (-110) | Playable at number

Carolina Panthers (+4.5, +185 ML) Vs. New Orleans Saints (-4.5, -200 ML)

The Panthers don’t have the horses to compete in a close game against the Saints.

Despite their great victory over the Eagles on Sunday, New Orleans is now out of the playoffs. They have the defense to shut down a Panthers offense that is somewhat overvalued.

The Panthers’ offensive line is okay, but the skill weapons aren’t great despite being big names.

The Human Swiss Army Knife will be the difference between these two franchises that are not going anywhere fast.

I’ll lay the points with the Saints, especially in the Superdome.

My pick: New Orleans Saints -4.5 (-105) | Playable at number

New York Giants (+14, +600 ML) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, -750 ML)

I am inclined to bet the Giants here. Philly has been excellent all season when Jalen has been fit.

Without him, the Eagles are now at risk of not being top seeds in the NFC. If he doesn’t start, this line is definitely out of whack.

Is there enough in the Giants’ front seven to get a push against the Eagles? Philadelphia has the best offensive line in the NFL with a couple of great running backs.

I see the Eagles controlling the time of possession here, perhaps at a 2-to-1 ratio.

If that’s what happens, the Eagles cover. With the uncertainty about who starts for Philadelphia, I’m sitting on the sidelines.

If you are the sort of bettor who likes to back heavy favorites on the moneyline (I don’t), then head to PointsBet.

Why take the -1000 at BetRivers when you could have -750 at PointsBet? You would earn 33% more profit at PointsBet!

Remember to shop around for the best odds. You do it in other aspects of your life, so why wouldn’t you do the same when it comes to betting?!

Don’t leave money behind unnecessarily.

My pick: Pass

Arizona Cardinals (+13.5, +530 ML) Vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13.5, -675 ML)

The Cardinals are challenging the Bears for the worst record in the NFC.

Cardinals’ fans prayed for a healthy and hot Kyler Murray to justify his price tag.

What they got was a .250 season and David Blough under center. Ouch!

It’s the perfect spot for Kliff Kingsbury to completely lay an egg.

He’s done so throughout his college and NFL coaching career. I see him doing that again against a loaded Niners roster with Kyle Shanahan at the helm.

The two touchdown head start will not be enough to stop the rampant 49ers from steamrollering their divisional rivals.

My pick: San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, +245 ML) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, -210 ML)

This is a tough line.

I like the Seahawks’ chances to cover as home favorites especially when they are giving less than a converted touchdown away.

Plus, Seattle emphasizes the run, and the ‘Hawks will try to play keep away from Baker Mayfield.

Back in August, the Rams were -245. Now they are +245.

Seattle is surprisingly gunning for the playoffs.

I expect them to get the job done and pull out a victory. However, the line is too good for me to have a team to cover the spread.

I’ll pass.

My pick: Pass

Dallas Cowboys (-6, -230 ML) Vs. Washington Commanders (+6, +210 ML)

I don’t understand the market’s love for the Commanders.

Outside of a decent defensive line and Kendall Fuller, this roster sucks.

The Cowboys are fighting for top spot in the NFC, and Mike McCarthy loves laying eggs. They have the pieces to out-compete an underwhelming Commanders team.

I thought this line would be a double digit one.

Dallas has kept the scoreboards very busy this year. They have put on the second most points in the NFL.

I expect them to finish the regular season with a flourish and crush their rivals in a high scoring game.

My pick: Dallas Cowboys -6 (-110) | Lean Over at 41.5 with FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee Titans (+7, +240 ML) Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, -300 ML)

It’s tough to play in Jacksonville.

It’s hot down there in Florida, even during the mid-Winter months. You often see teams overwhelmed by the weather, like the Patriots in Miami.

The Titans aren’t exactly a cold-weather team, but the point does stand.

I also like fading Mike Vrabel in games like this

With the winner topping the AFC South, expect a closely fought battle.

However, I would always side with the form team in such games.

I expect the Jags to finish their season with five wins on the bounce. It will be closer than their two-touchdown victory just before Christmas.

It would not surprise me to see young Riley Patterson put Jacksonville ahead with a field goal as time expires.

My pick: Jags to win and Titans to cover (+154.5)

Cleveland Browns (+3, +120 ML) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, -138 ML)

Rather miraculously for a team that started the season 2-6, the Steelers then went 6-2 in the second half of the season.

They are somehow still in the playoff hunt. Out of 239 teams to have started the season with that .250 record, only two have then ever made the playoffs.

Here’s looking at you Mike Tomlin!

With Deshaun underperforming since his return to action, I’m siding with the Steelers to exact revenge for their defeat earlier in the season.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115) | Playable at number

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About the author

Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower league...

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