NFL Week 18 Parlay Picks
The conclusion of the NFL regular season is here, and fans will be keeping an eye on several factors, including qualifying for the playoffs, locking in seeds and…
Category Ratings
And, of course, there will be plenty of punters sweating out bets, too.
We’ve provided a Week 18 parlay below featuring Derrick Henry (BAL vs. CLE) and Jameson Williams (DET vs. MIN).
Henry plays in the first Week 18 contest on Saturday (4:25 p.m. ET) and Williams takes part in the finale on Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET).
Read our Week 18 NFL odds analysis by Sean and my prop picks for more information regarding the upcoming action.
Note: Odds were correct at the time of writing.
Week 18 Parlay
Derrick Henry anytime TD and Jameson Williams 30+ rec yds (-136 at bet365)
Derrick Henry’s Outlook (Anytime TD)
The superstar running back can hit a $500,000 incentive on Sunday against the Browns if he can score a rushing touchdown.
Henry is currently sitting at 14 on the year, and a 15th would earn him the bonus.
The $500,000 isn’t the only thing on the table, also a page in the Ravens’ history books. Henry can break the franchise record for most rushing touchdowns in a season. He’s currently tied with Jamal Lewis (who scored 14 in 2003).
While he needs a rushing touchdown to hit the incentive, this tip also includes receiving touchdowns for this leg of the parlay.
Through 16 games this season, the former 2015 Heisman Trophy Winner has scored a total of 16 touchdowns (averaging one per game).
He’s managed to reach the end zone in 12/16 contests (75%), and Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh will more than likely put him in a position to earn his bonus.
Henry faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing running backs (0.81 per game average).
The Ravens will be playing the starters because they’re still trying to lock in the AFC North title along with the No. 3 seed in the conference heading into the playoffs.
If Henry and Baltimore win, they clench the division. A loss would require Pittsburgh to fall to Cincinnati. The Steelers also play on Saturday but at 8 p.m. ET.
The Ravens are 19.5 to 20-point favorites against the Browns, depending on the bookmaker. This bodes well for a running game script, which frequently puts the rock in Henry’s hands.
Cleveland’s defense is allowing 25 points per game (eighth-most in the league), while Baltimore’s offense is scoring 30.2 points (third-most) per outing. So there should be plenty of opportunities for the five-time Pro Bowler to punch it into the end zone.
This leg of the parlay for Henry to score is -225 at bet365, while other bookmakers such as Caesars (-233), DraftKings (-235), BetRivers (-240) and ESPNBET (-300) list him at worse odds.
Top projection models for betting and fantasy football also forecast Henry to break the plane.
Model Projections for Henry’s Touchdowns
- Action Network: 1.15
- 4for4.com: 1.20
- FantasyPoints.com: 1.11
- RotoWire: 1.05
- Numberfire: 1.01
- FantasyPros: 1.0
- BettingPros: 0.97
- PFF: 0.9
- ESPN: 0.8
Jameson Williams’ Outlook (30+ yards)
Detroit’s WR2 is currently sitting at 967 yards and is just 33 away from hitting the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his NFL career.
Since coming back from injury in Week 10 after missing the prior two contests, Williams has recorded 30 or more yards in 7-of-8 (87.5%) games and has done so in four consecutive.
Throughout the entire season, he’s attained 30 or more yards in 11/14 (78.57%) outings and is averaging 69.07 yards and 5.92 targets per game.
Since Week 10, his usage has ramped up with a 22.2% first-read share, 6.6 targets and 75.8 yards per game.
It’s been a career year for the speedy wideout, and as showcased in the tweet below, he ranks in the top 10 for separation score according to Fantasy Points Data.
Average Separation Score Leaders
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 31, 2024
[2024 Weeks 1-17, min. 300 routes]
1. Mike Evans
2. Zay Flowers
3. Rashod Bateman
4. Nico Collins
5. A.J. Brown
6. Tank Dell
7. Ladd McConkey
8. Romeo Doubs
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
10. Jameson Williams
This week, Williams faces off against a Vikings defense that has allowed the second most receiving yards per game (186.12) to opposing wide receiver rooms.
Minnesota also ranks fifth-worst in the NFL defending the pass, surrendering an average of 243.6 yards per contest.
Over the past five weeks, the Vikings have allowed 11 receivers to record at least 30 yards against them. During that span, every WR2 has also hit the mark.
The Vikings will have their hands full defending Detroit’s Pro Bowlers Jahmyr Gibbs (running back) and fellow wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, which should open things up for Williams.
The winner of Detroit vs. Minnesota will lock in the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, a first-round bye and the NFC North title.
Sportsbooks list the total at 56.5 points, which is the highest of any matchup this week. This implies a back-and-forth shootout with plenty of yards up for grabs.
Most bookmakers feature the 23-year-old’s standard receiving yards total at 58.5 yards.
This leg of the parlay (30+ receiving yards) holds more value at bet365 (-500), compared to BetRivers (-625) and Caesars (-700).
Model Projections for Williams’ Receiving Yards
- ESPN: 72.1
- FantasyPoints.com: 70.3
- PFF: 66.9
- 4for4.com: 66.6
- RotoWire: 66.3
- FantasyPros: 66.2
- BettingPros: 62.1
- DraftSharks: 61.9
- Action Network: 61
- Numberfire: 60.73
Parlay Odds Comparison
The odds for this parlay are much more valuable at bet365 compared to every other bookmaker.
Note: Other sportsbooks didn’t offer alternate yards in increments of 30.
