bestodds logo

NFL Week 17 Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 27, 2023

Loading...

Week 17 is always an interesting time of the year.

Some teams that are guaranteed a playoff spot will begin benching their star players, while other teams that are looking forward to the 2024 NFL Draft will begin benching their players that failed to move the needle.

This week will also feature plenty of teams vying for the playoffs with serious playoff implications on the line for some clubs.

For example: the Jacksonville Jaguars.

After Week 12, the Jaguars held a record of 8-3, and were in the conversation for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Since, they have lost four straight games, falling to 8-7, and allowing the Houston Texans (8-7) and Indianapolis Colts (8-7) to potentially steal away the AFC South Division from Jacksonville.

All three AFC South teams, Texans, Colts, and Jaguars, are favored at home in Week 17.

Here’s a look at how these three teams stack up in Week 17 with playoff percentages.

AFC SouthPlayoff %Playoff % w/ Week 17 WinPlayoff % w/ Week 17 Loss
Jaguars (8-7)70%82%40%
Texans (8-7)36%51%13%
Colts (8-7)51%69%24%

Houston’s C.J. Stroud is still ‘questionable’ to play, and now would be a crucial time to have him make his return to the field.

Let’s sift through the Week 17 slate and find some potentially profitable wagers, and as always, with the best odds!

Thursday Night Football

New York Jets (+7.5, +278 ML) vs. Cleveland Browns (-7.5, -340 ML)

Total: Over 34.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 35 (-110 | Caesars)

Thursday Night Football heads to downtown Cleveland in Week 17, with the Browns hosting the New York Jets.

The Jets will be starting quarterback Trevor Siemian, and that doesn’t seem too promising against Cleveland’s elite passing defense.

The Browns’ defense has allowed an average of only 180.8 passing yards per game (1st in NFL), and they’ve allowed only 20.7 points per game (12th in NFL).

I don’t expect Joe Flacco to duplicate his game from last week, when he threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns, and I definitely don’t expect the Jets to score 30 points again this week like they did against Washington in Week 16.

I’ll back the primetime under here.

Pick: Under 35 | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Saturday, December 30th

Detroit Lions (+6, +220 ML) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6, -258 ML)

Total: Over 53.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 53.5 (-109 | BetRivers)

Thankfully, for Dak Prescott, he can return home to AT&T Stadium in Week 17.

The Cowboys fell to 10-5 last week, losing two in a row on the road to the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.

All five losses for Dallas have come on the road this season, and Prescott’s home and road splits are not pretty.

Prescott H/R W-L RecordComp %Yards/GameTDINTQB Rating
Home7-074%303.6202122.5
Road3-563%220.810587.1

Whenever Prescott packs his bag for a road trip, he must remember to pack his arm.

Considering that Prescott tends to leave his arm at home, and Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense will be visiting this week, I’m expecting a high score in this one.

Detroit has allowed 20 or more points in 11 of 15 games this season, and the Cowboys currently hold the NFL’s second-best offense, averaging 30.1 points per game.

This comparison of both offenses from BestOdds EDGE shows some offensive strengths.

Both teams are in the top-10 in nearly every offensive category in the NFL.

Lots of offense in this one.

Pick: Over 53.5 | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Sunday, December 31st – 1:00 pm EST

Miami Dolphins (+3.5, +150 ML) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3, -170 ML)

Total: Over 47 (-108 | DraftKings), Under 47 (-109 | BetRivers)

The Baltimore Ravens knocked off the Super Bowl 58 favorite San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, 33-19.

Returning home to Baltimore, the Ravens will host another heavyweight matchup this week.

The Miami Dolphins have the NFL’s top-ranked offense, scoring 30.9 points per game, but their offense will go toe-to-toe with Baltimore’s top-ranked defense, allowing only 16.3 points per game.

The combined record of all teams that Miami has played this season is 84-111 (.430).

The Ravens’ opponents have produced a combined record of 101-94 (.518).

Baltimore has had a tougher schedule than Miami and has still produced a slightly better season record.

Miami lost to the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs on the road.

I don’t see the road-underdog Dolphins taking down the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens (-3) | Best Odds: (-115) DraftKings

New England Patriots (+12, +520 ML) vs. Buffalo Bills (-12, -650 ML)

Total: Over 40.5 (-110 | Caesars), Under 40.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

Bailey Zappe is attempting to become the new franchise QB for the Patriots, and in the last few weeks, he may have earned a longer look.

In the last three games, Zappe has led New England to two wins, has completed 72.8% of his passes for an average of 225 yards per game, and has thrown six touchdown passes to only two interceptions.

The Buffalo Bills are only 6-8-1 against the spread this season, and when they are favored by more than seven points, they are 2-5 ATS.

Also, Bills’ QB Josh Allen has turned the football over 18 times (15 INT, 3 Fumbles) in 15 games.

A few more in this one, and it’ll be difficult to hang a big number on this scrappy Patriots team.

Pick: Patriots (+12) | Best Odds: (-108) DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons (+3, +135 ML) vs. Chicago Bears (-3, -155 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-115 | FanDuel), Under 38 (-110 | bet365)

The Chicago Bears have won four of their last six games, and the more they win, the more interesting their top selection in the 2024 NFL Draft gets.

Chicago’s rushing defense has become an absolute brick wall, allowing only 80.7 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL).

If the Atlanta Falcons wish to succeed, they need to run.

Here’s how the Falcons fare when they run for less than 130 rushing yards as a team:

ATL OpponentATL Rush YardsResult
Week 3 vs. DET44Loss
Week 4 vs. JAX127Loss
Week 5 vs. HOU96Win
Week 6 vs. WAS106Loss
Week 9 vs. MIN110Loss
Week 13 vs. NYJ90Win
Week 14 vs. TB96Loss
Week 15 vs. CAR52Loss

If 130 or more rushing yards is the “magic number” for the success of Atlanta’s offense, I’m expecting failure in Week 17.

Chicago has only allowed an opposing team to tally 130 or more rushing yards twice all season, Kansas City in Week 3, and Detroit in Week 14.

The Bears are trending upward, and I’ll back them comfortably in Week 17.

Pick: Bears (-3) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

Tennessee Titans (+4.5, +180 ML) vs. Houston Texans (-4.5, -205 ML)

Total: Over 42.5 (-115 | FanDuel), Under 43.5 (-115 | DraftKings)

Tennessee is just 1-6 on the road this season, and when these two last played on December 17th, Houston came out on top by a field goal in overtime in Tennessee.

Case Keenum led the Texans in that win just a few short weeks ago, but C.J. Stroud could be back under center this week.

Assuming that Stroud will be cleared to suit up, I’ll take Houston on the spread before that news breaks; that’ll probably push the line closer to -6.5 or -7.

Also, the Texans have scored at least 20 points in every home game this season, so I’d expect a Stroud-backed Houston offense to put up a sizable number on the Titans’ defense.

Pick: Texans (-4.5) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5, +158 ML) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, -180 ML)

Total: Over 43.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 43.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

The pesky Las Vegas Raiders stole a win from the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last week, and they could potentially play spoiler against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17.

With a win, the Colts have a 69% chance of securing a playoff berth, with a loss, only 24%.

Indianapolis has lost two of their last three games, and in those three matchups, they’ve allowed an average of 25.3 points per game.

This insight from BestOdds EDGE tells me that the Raiders have a puncher’s chance here.

Las Vegas has gone under quite a transformation in their short period under head coach Antonio Pierce.

The rushing defense for the Raiders has been a weak spot, but if they can hold Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ ground game in check, they can pick up their third straight win.

Pick: Raiders Moneyline | Best Odds: (+158) Caesars

Carolina Panthers (+6.5, +245 ML) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, -275 ML)

Total: Over 38 (-110 | bet365), Under 38 (-110 | FanDuel)

Carolina Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young is coming off a career-high 312 yards passing against the Green Bay Packers in Week 16.

In Week 17, Young will get to face the Jaguars 29th-ranked passing defense, allowing 271.7 passing yards per game.

In three of Carolina’s last four games, the final score has resulted in a three-point or less margin, with the Panthers coming out on top in one of them, beating the Falcons 9-7 in Week 15.

If Bryce Young can show some growth and put together back-to-back solid performances, Carolina could keep it close in Jacksonville.

The Jags are favored by 6.5 points, but if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t suit up, that number could drop down to 4.5 or less.

I’ll back Young and the Panthers on the spread before any news about Lawrence’s potential absence breaks.

Pick: Panthers (+6.5) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, -218 ML) vs. New York Giants (+4.5, +188 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 44.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

The Los Angeles Rams have won five of their last six games, and the only loss came to the Baltimore Ravens in overtime.

In their strong six game stretch, the Rams are averaging 29.8 points per game and quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

Based purely on the quality of the QB position for Los Angeles, and the lack of quality from the QB position for New York, it’s impossible to take the Giants here.

Not only will Stafford pick apart this subpar Giants’ defensive secondary, New York’s rushing defense is 29th in the NFL, and Kyren Williams will grind down the clock after the Rams make it a three-possession game.

Also, Los Angeles is still looking to punch their ticket to the playoffs, and with a win, their playoff chances increase from 67% to 87%.

How is the spread only 4.5 points?

Pick: Rams (-4.5) | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

Arizona Cardinals (+11, +430 ML) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5, -550 ML)

Total: Over 48 (-110 | bet365), Under 48.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

The NFL’s worst rushing defense against Jalen Hurts, D’Andre Swift and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles average 131.1 rushing yards per game, and in their last two games, they are averaging 174 yards on the ground.

The Cardinals just allowed the Chicago Bears to pick up 250 rushing yards last week, so Philadelphia is probably going to steamroll Arizona on Sunday.

The Eagles have played in five games against bottom-10 rushing defenses, and in those games, they are only 3-2, and have not won any game by more than eight points.

When the game script calls for running the ball and grinding down the clock, Philly can still come away with the win, but not necessarily cover the spread.

With a spread in double-digits, the clock will be the Cardinals’ friend for the cover.

Pick: Cardinals (+11) | Best Odds: (-112) DraftKings

New Orleans Saints (+2.5, +120 ML) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, -135)

Total: Over 42.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 42.5 (-110 | FanDuel)

Let Baker bake!

Baker Mayfield has thrown for eight touchdowns in his last three games and has thrown zero interceptions.

Mayfield has carried the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back into the NFC South Division lead, but they’ll need another win over the New Orleans Saints to maintain that divisional lead.

In the last four games the Saints are averaging 25.5 points per game and the Bucs are averaging 28.5 in the last four.

These defenses are okay at best, so while their offenses are trending in the right direction, I’ll back the over down in Raymond James Stadium.

Even though the under is 5-2 at Raymond James Stadium.

Pick: Over 42.5 | Best Odds: (-109) BetRivers

San Francisco 49ers (-12.5, -720 ML) vs. Washington Commanders (+13, +575 ML)

Total: Over 49.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 49.5 (-109 | BetRivers)

It appears that the Washington Commanders are moving on from Sam Howell, or at least “giving him some rest”, whatever that means from head coach Ron Rivera.

Jacoby Brissett will be under center for Washington this Sunday, and while he has outperformed Howell in recent weeks, it’s probably not going to be enough to take down the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers took a tough home loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week, in what very well could have been a preview for Super Bowl 58.

I’m thinking that San Francisco will take out their frustrations on a wildly poor Commanders’ defense in Week 17.

Washington’s defense ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (272.5 ypg), 23rd in rushing yards allowed (122.7 ypg), and 32nd in scoring defense (30.2 ppg).

Brock Purdy will use this defense as a get-right game.

After losing to the Ravens at home, the 49ers will head into the Beltway and dismantle the Commanders 30 miles south of Baltimore.

Pick: 49ers (-12.5) | Best Odds: (-110) FanDuel

Sunday, December 31st – 4:05 pm EST

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5, +154 ML) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -168 ML)

Total: Over 41 (-110 | Caesars), Under 41.5 (-110 | DraftKings)

Both of these squads will be fighting to stay alive in Week 17.

PIT vs. SEAPlayoff %Playoff % w/ WinPlayoff % w/ Loss
Pittsburgh18%32%7%
Seattle68587%39%

This game is more important for Pittsburgh’s playoff chances than it is for Seattle, and even if the Steelers were to win, they’ll need some other things to break their way.

The Seattle Seahawks lost four straight games from Week 11 through Week 14, and since then they’ve won their last two games, both by touchdown passes in the final minute of the game, one from Drew Lock over the Eagles and the other from Geno Smith over the Titans.

Although the Steelers have a low-scoring offense, the Seahawks haven’t been blowing any team away, so Pittsburgh could have a shot here.

I backed the Steelers and their defense to pick up a win over the Bengals last week, and I’m going back to the well this week.

If Pittsburgh can keep Seattle’s offense under 20 points, they could steal a win at Lumen Field.

Mason Rudolph will just need to limit turnovers.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+154) DraftKings

Sunday, December 31st – 4:25 pm EST

Cincinnati Bengals (+7, +265 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7, -305 ML)

Total: Over 44.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 44.5 (-110 | BetRivers)

The Kansas City Chiefs have lost four of their last six games, and what was once a feared passing offense, has not been as fearsome.

In the last six games, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 249.3 passing yards per game and has thrown nine touchdown passes and six interceptions.

Those numbers are far from the higher expectations set for Mahomes.

But, Cincinnati Bengals interim QB1 Jake Browning has hit a snag as well, throwing three interceptions in a loss to the Steelers last week.

If I had to back a QB to return to form this week, it would clearly be Mahomes.

Cincinnati’s defensive secondary has been awful all season, currently sitting 28th in passing defense, and their total defense is allowing 23 points per game, which is 21st in the NFL.

Kansas City will look more like the Chiefs this week.

Pick: Chiefs (-7) | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, +158 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5, -179 ML)

Total: Over 37.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 37.5 (-108 | DraftKings)

Everyone buckle up, it’s going to be Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham!

Denver Broncos’ head coach Sean Payton decided to bench Russell Wilson for the rest of the season as the team looks for a “spark”.

“Spark” also translates to “better draft pick”.

Stidham has a chance to perform well against the Los Angeles Chargers’ 31st-ranked passing defense, but it’s still Jarrett Stidham.

I don’t think it’s all recency bias, but Easton Stick has done pretty well, producing a passer rating of 94.4 since taking over for Herbert, and that’s enough to have me believe that the Chargers will leave Denver with a win.

Easton Stick gets his first win this Sunday.

Pick: Chargers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+158) FanDuel

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (+2, +110 ML) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, -125 ML)

Total: Over 46 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 46.5 (-105 | FanDuel)

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off back-to-back narrow losses, losing to the Bengals in overtime, 27-24 in Week 15, and losing to the Lions, 30-24 in Week 16.

They are now favored at home by two points over their NFC North rival Green Bay Packers.

The Packers just missed losing three games in a row to the lowly Panthers last week, winning on a field goal in the waning seconds of the game.

Green Bay’s once-effective passing defense has crumbled down the stretch, allowing Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young to throw for a combined 693 yards and six touchdowns in the last two games.

Despite chucking four interceptions against Detroit last week, Nick Mullens has still produced a respectable 86.3 QB rating and has thrown for four touchdown passes in his two starts.

The Packers’ evaporating passing defense will also be without top cornerback Jaire Alexander, so Mullens could have an easier time connecting with Justin Jefferson.

If the Vikings win, they’ll be back to .500 at 8-8, and they’ll have a 49% chance of making the playoffs.
Pick: Vikings Moneyline | Best Odds: (-125) DraftKings

Loading...
chevron up