Odds For NFL Week 17

Will Armitage

Updated: Dec 26, 2022

We have just two weeks left of the NFL season.

Divisional titles and playoff seeds are decided in these all-too-important games.

Enjoy it, football fans. We’ll be sweating bullpens before you know it.

Sportsbooks have posted Week 17 lines to view and bet on.

Which teams will cover their Week 17 spreads? Which teams will win outright?

With betting odds for Week 17 finding their range, Read on for our picks and analysis.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, -430 ML) Vs. Tennessee Titans (+9.5, +375 ML)

I particularly dislike this game.

These are two teams I’m low on, despite the Cowboys being 11-4.

I’ll roll with the Cowboys, but want to keep the bet small as I’m not overly confident.

They excelled against the Eagles at the weekend. But they were below par against the Texans and Jags before that. You never know which Cowboys will turn up.

My pick: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

Arizona Cardinals (+4, +170 ML) Vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, -182 ML)

This is my favorite spot of the week.

The rules for Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray are simple:

  1. Bet the Cardinals as underdogs
  2. Bet the Cardinals early in the season
  3. Fade the Cardinals as favorites
  4. Fade the Cardinals late in the season

The Cardinals are on the road receiving just over a field goal in Week 17.

For how bad of a roster the Falcons have, it seems the pieces are starting to mesh slightly better late in the season. And I will fade Kingsbury into the sun in this spot.

I’ll take the points and also bet the Falcons’ ML.

My pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons ML (-182 – Best odds at BetRivers)

Cleveland Browns (+2.5, +120 ML) vs Washington Commanders (-1, -135 ML)

I think the Browns dominate the Commanders in this one.

There are some talented pieces on the Washington defensive.

But the overall composition isn’t well suited to go tit-for-tat with the Browns’ rush attack.

In the meanwhile, the Browns have two elite pass rushers in Jadevon Clowney and Myles Garrett, alongside a talented secondary led by Denzel Ward.

They should easily confuse and overwhelm Carson Wentz or Taylor Heinicke, who are both turnover-prone and significantly overrated in the markets.

Plus, the Browns are gunning for a playoff spot. I expect Deshaun Watson to put up an atypical Watson performance in this Week 17 road game.

My pick: Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Chicago Bears (+6, +205 ML) Vs. Detroit Lions (-5.5, -225 ML)

The Bears and Lions are very similar teams. I have them power-rated almost equally.

But the coaching advantage lies with Dan Campbell, who has put together a frisky Lions squad that usually improves week over week in the NFL.

Their only recent blip was that surprising defeat at the weekend to the Panthers

The Bears have an atrocious roster.

Justin Fields is one of the few quarterbacks that is a downgrade from Jared Goff, despite his ability to rack up some decent rushing yards.

At least the Lions have some foundational pieces in the trenches in Aidan Hutchison and Penei Sewell, both rookies who could see a late-season experience surge.

I’ll take the Lions.

My pick: Detroit Lions +6 (-110) | Playable at number

Denver Broncos (+13.5, +600 ML) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5, -700 ML)

It’s tough to take Patrick Mahomes when he’s laying points.

But this is a tougher schedule spot for the Broncos, and I just don’t believe in Russell Wilson’s Broncos yet.

Frankly, his nearly quarter of a billion-dollar contract (!) looks like an unmitigated disaster!

After playing three straight road games from Weeks 13 to 16, the Chiefs finally got some reprieve with a home game against the Jaguars.

They’re going to be well-rested and motivated for this one.

In the meantime, the Broncos are on the second leg of a two-game road trip.

The line does feel slightly high, so maybe the schedule spot is baked into the line already.

Either way, I’m just going to lay the points with the Chiefs and trust in Mahomes.

I also like the over.

My pick: Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 (-105) | Lean Over at 43.5 with PointsBet

Miami Dolphins (-1, -115 ML) Vs. New England Patriots (+1.5, +105 ML)

The Patriots and losing late-season games against the Dolphins.

Name a more iconic duo.

The last time the Patriots beat the Dolphins in December was in 2016.

To rephrase that more emphatically: The Patriots have lost five consecutive December games against Miami.

The last time they beat the Dolphins this late in the season, Tom Brady was coming off his Deflategate suspension.

I’m taking the Dolphins with the points and on the ML. They will then confine New England to a losing season.

My pick: Miami Dolphins -1 (-110) | Miami Dolphins ML (-120 – Best odds at Bet365)

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, +152 ML) Vs. New York Giants (-3.5, -165 ML)

I like this matchup.

The Colts and the Giants are two teams I think make huge jumps this season.

Specifically behind two offensive lines that will be good and improved quarterback play. I think we can say that Daniel Jones has made a slight jump this season.

However, I hate this line. Daniel Jones is decent when the lines are close but bad in the Meadowlands. 

I’m going to pass altogether.

My pick: Pass

New Orleans Saints (+7, +275 ML) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, -320 ML)

I lean strongly with the Eagles here.

But, like the Colts-Giants game, I hate this line. It’s just a tad high and I generally hate laying exactly a touchdown.

I’m happy to take the ML with the Eagles.

The Eagles have a defensive line that should pressure Andy Dalton into mistakes.

The Saints have a solid defense, but the Eagles’ offensive line and run game should get enough of a push to make the difference.

This also feels like a good under bet in this game, considering both teams should get stuffed by the opposing front seven.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-320) | Lean Under at 44 with BetMGM

Carolina Panthers (+3, +150) Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, -155 ML)

I don’t believe in the Panthers, despite how they dismantled the Lions on Christmas Eve and their 3-1 recent record.

Some people are high on their roster, and they have interesting pieces in RB D’Onta Foreman and DE Brian Burns.

But I see a rather weak secondary and a bunch of overvalued skill players, including Sam Darnold.

But the Buccaneers are not the same team.

The GOAT is certainly getting older and is protected by an injured inferior offensive line.

I lean toward Carolina here but I will most likely pass.

My pick: Pass | Lean Carolina Panthers +3 (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5, +165 ML) Vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, -180 ML)

Mike Tomlin is 26-10-1 ATS when an underdog against a team with a better record.

Plus, this is a sharp line, and betting divisional road dogs are generally a profitable venture.

The Ravens are a stacked team. But they love to run the ball, and they’re running into one of the best front sevens in the league.

In the meantime, the Steelers are going to commit to the run. They’ll run right into Calais Campbell if he’s fit, and Roquan Smith.

If Pickett even tries to throw the ball, he’ll be overwhelmed by Marcus Peters, Marcus Williams, and Marlon Humphrey in the secondary.

I don’t mean to beat down the team I’m betting on. But I’m trying to make a point about the game script.

This will be a low-scoring, NFC North rock fight. That always favors the underdog and you’ve got the best underdog coach in football on one sideline.

I’ll take the points, and I lean under.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-110) | Lean Under at a paltry 36

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, -200 ML) Vs. Houston Texans (+4, +177 ML)

Who would have thought that the Jags would be top of the AFC South after Christmas?!

There’s a decent amount of quality on the roster and the coaching staff is above average.

Can they go to 8-8 this week? The Texans aren’t a good football team, and Davis Mills can generally cover games but he rarely wins them.

It’s a tough proposition considering the Texans took down the Jags 30-16 last season. But I think we’re upgrading Jacksonville this season and downgrading Houston.

The Texans are playing better football in recent weeks. But I expect this game to revert to type, with Houston suffering their 13th defeat of the season.

My pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -4 (-110) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

San Francisco 49ers (-5, -225 ML) Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5, +205 ML)

I am very interested in taking Kyle Shanahan to take San Fran to 12-4.

Especially against first-year head coach Josh McDaniels and an offensive line littered with holes.

The Raiders made a ton of splashy moves on the outside, and their skill position players are elite.

But good football teams are built from the inside-out, and this Raiders team was not.

The Raiders are also going to be great at pressuring the quarterback, with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones leading the way.

But Shanahan is going to commit to the run game with CMC as well as letting George Kittle pull in a load of catches.

The Niners are going to have plenty of different looks on the ground and in the air.

The Raiders won’t be as effective at stopping that.

I’ll take the Niners on both the spreads and the ML.

My pick: San Francisco 49ers -5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers ML (-225 – Best odds at DraftKings)

New York Jets (-2, -130 ML) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, +115 ML)

When two terrible teams face off, I usually just take the points.

But the Jets do have a more talented roster. The weapons should be good, and Zach Wilson has proved he can play well, even if it’s only in short stints.

He shouldn’t need to try too hard against a Seattle secondary that is stripped to the bone. The days of the Legion of Boom are long gone.

I’ll take the Jets.

My pick: New York Jets -2 (-109) | Playable at number

Minnesota Vikings (+3, +150 ML) Vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, -170 ML)

I love the Vikings here.

The Packers are on the downswing while the Vikings are on the upswing.

Minnesota has rightly stolen the NFC North away from the juggernaut Packers, and are catching a field goal in the process.

The Vikings have an explosive offense behind new head coach Kevin O’Connell, and they should put up a fight against one of the league’s top defenses.

The Minnesota defense isn’t as dominant, but the Packers offense is on the downswing.

Also, think about how many close games Aaron Rodgers has pulled out. Even if you don’t believe the Vikings can win this game outright, I doubt Rodgers wins by more than a field goal.

It’s also always profitable to bet on divisional road underdogs. Give me the Vikings at +3 or better.

Remarkably the Packers have gone 15 games unbeaten in December. I think that remarkable record finishes this weekend.

My pick: Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100) | Playable at number

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (+7, +275 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-7, -300 ML)

The Chargers’ love is warranted. This is a stacked roster. It’s overwhelming how much talent there is in between the lines.

But are we ready to crown the Chargers AFC West champions when they haven’t gotten over the hump yet?

No. The Chiefs are not giving up that mantle any time soon, as long as Mahomes stays fit and stays in Kansas!

Brandon Staley and Justin Herbert are flashy and unique young talents, but they haven’t won anything yet.

Plus, they’re a public team, so they’re generally overvalued in the betting markets.

The Rams can match the Chargers’ talent at every position.

Sean McVay is a two-time NFC Championship-winning head coach and is coming off a Super Bowl. Even though his team is so badly battered and bruised, in Baker they now trust!

Give me the Rams.

My pick: Los Angeles Rams +7 (-109) | playable to +6 (-110)

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (-1, -110 ML) Vs. Cincinnati Bengals +1, +100 ML)

I think the Bengals are overvalued.

They’re just too high variance.

They could win this game by 20 or lose by 20. You just never know with a top-heavy roster that’s questionable on the offensive line and lacks depth all around.

The Bills are too good.

They win this game and I’ll play them at Fanduel as they have the best odds on the moneyline.

My pick: Buffalo Bills ML (-110) | Playable at number

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About the author

Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower league...

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