Odds For NFL Week 16

Will Armitage

Updated: Dec 19, 2022

Merry Christmas to our loyal readers.

The NFL season doesn’t stop for the Holidays, but it does adjust.

With just three Christmas Day games, we’ll get 13 Saturday NFL games.

With college football in playoff mode, there will be no disruptions this weekend from professional football.

Sportsbooks have posted Week 16 lines for us to view and bet on.

So, which teams will cover their Week 16 spreads? Which teams will win outright?

With NFL odds for Week 16 finding their range, read on for our picks and analysis.

Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, -105 ML) Vs. New York Jets (-1.5, -107 ML)

For once, I like the Jets here.

Short weeks trend towards the home favorite. Plus, coach Robert Saleh should have his Jets playing better football late this season.

The Jets also have the offensive weapons to burn a very weak Jacksonville secondary.

I’ll be on the Jets at this line. FanDuel seems to be out on a limb at +1.5, whereas the other books are in negative territory for the Jets.

The minus 122 might not be the most attractive odds, but at least you are given points for New York.

My pick: New York Jets +1.5 (-122) | Playable at number

Game Kickoff – 1 p.m. EST

Buffalo Bills (-8, -375 ML) Vs. Chicago Bears (+9, +350 ML)

Home underdogs catching over a touchdown have covered at a 55% rate since 2004. But I can’t trust the Bears in this spot.

Chicago is generally a poor football team.

They managed to cover against Philly at the weekend thanks to one moment of magic from a galloping Justin Fields. However, I don’t see lightning striking twice.

The Bills have too many weapons and this is a very straightforward schedule spot.

It’s a weird line. I lean toward Buffalo, but will most likely pass.

My pick: Pass | Lean Buffalo Bills -8 (-114)

Houston Texans (+7, +275 ML) Vs. Tennessee Titans (-7, -300 ML)

You want to fade Mike Vrabel when he’s laying points.

Vrabel is 18-11 ATS as an underdog in his career but just 15-21 as a favorite. He’s 4-7 ATS when laying over a touchdown.

The Texans are going to be frisky. They didn’t have the ATS numbers last season, but they’re due for some positive regression and should be able to keep it within the number against a head coach that often disappoints with expectations.

Plus, the back door is wide open in this one.

My pick: Houston Texans +7 (-105) | Playable at number

Seattle Seahawks (+10, +375 ML) Vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, -450 ML)

The Chiefs finally return home after a three-game road trip.

But the Seahawks are coming off a long week, having played on Thursday night a week ago.

This game is too tough to pick.

While I lean toward Kansas City, the line is just a tad high. If the Chiefs were to fall closer to -8.5, I’d consider a play on them then.

My pick: Pass | Target Kansas City Chiefs at -8.5 (-110) or better

New York Giants (+5.5, +180 ML) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, -180 ML)

This is a very tough game to handicap.

The fact that it you shop around for the best odds on this game you can do so with no juice proves just that.

If you like the Vikings to continue their winning ways, then you want to shop at Bet365. The world’s largest sportsbook has the best odds of -180.

Caesars have the worst odds at -220 on the moneyline, so would be one to avoid for that particular bet.

The Vikings are an explosive offense that should take advantage of the Giants’ relatively weak secondary.

Plus, the Giants are on the second leg of a two-game road trip.

But the Giants can compete in the trenches, and Daniel Jones is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at covering the spread on the road.

Combine that with Kirk Cousins’ abysmal home favorite ATS record – alongside a profitable ATS split for divisional road underdogs – and you’ve got the perfect storm for a Giants cover.

In the end, I’m just going to pass. This is Giants or nothing for me.

My pick: Pass | Lean New York Giants +5.5 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, -175 ML) Vs. New England Patriots (+4, +170 ML)

The Patriots’ second-half schedule is mind-boggling.

They just finished four straight primetime games, which included two Thursday Night games (one on Thanksgiving), a Sunday Night game, and a Monday Night game.

Now, they’ll host the Bengals at home on a Saturday.

It’s easily the weirdest stretch of schedule I’ve ever seen for an NFL team.

I’m trying to ascertain how that affects the psyche of the team, specifically, its young quarterback.

Plus, Mac Jones floundered in the fourth quarter of the season last year.

But the Bengals are on the second leg of a two-game road trip, and it’s a slight sandwich spot.

Cinci traveled to Tampa Bay last week and host the Bills on Monday night next week.

When I first looked at this game, I wrote:

I would love the Patriots here if the line was closer to +3.5 because I believe this game will be close and Bill Belichick is too enticing to avoid as a home underdog.

I’m going to pray that the public pours money into Cincinnati and we can target the Patriots at +3 or better.

Well, my prayers have been answered! BetMGM giving me a +4 for the Patriots is where the best value lies. The other sportsbooks are around +3 or +3.5.

My pick: New England Patriots +4 (-110) at BetMGM

Detroit Lions (-3, -148 ML) Vs. Carolina Panthers (+3, +135 ML)

I don’t think the Panthers are that good.

They are weak in the trenches, Sam Darnold is not that good of a quarterback, and the Carolina “weapons” are mediocre at best.

Dan Campbell has built a solid foundation in Detroit, and he’ll have his team fully ready for a quiet run down the stretch.

Although the Lions are still years away from true contention, every game matters for this squad.

Giving the frisky Lions over just a field goal to overcome against an overrated Panthers team is a gift.

Remember, the Lions covered seven of their last nine games in 2021. Plus they are motoring at the moment, winning six of their last seven.

My pick: Detroit Lions -3 (-105) | Playable at number

Atlanta Falcons (+7, +250 ML) Vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, -250 ML)

I love the Ravens here.

Baltimore is coming home after a two-game road trip while the Falcons are on the second leg of a two-game road trip.

The Falcons are a stripped-down roster, but it’s clear the strength of the team is in the secondary.

But John Harbaugh and the Ravens are going to run it down your throat, and Arthur Smith’s Falcons are not prepared for that.

On the other side, Harbaugh’s defense should have no problem dealing with young Desmond Ridder. Kyle Pitts being injured coincides with Atlanta losing their past three games.

Give me the Ravens by double digits.

If you really want to take Baltimore on the moneyline, be sure to head to PointsBet. They have the clear best odds at -250.

Most other sportsbooks are in the -300s. Caesars has the worst odds at -320.

My pick: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-107) | Playable to -8.5 (-110)

Game Kickoff – 4 p.m. EST

Washington Commanders (+7, +285 ML) Vs. San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, -295 ML)

This is a pretty good spot for Washington.

They’re catching a touchdown on the road against a divisional opponent after having a late Bye in Week 14.

In the meantime, San Francisco has this game sandwiched in-between road games against Seattle and Las Vegas – and that’s a good amount of traveling.

But I’m just not buying what the Commanders are selling.

I don’t know how Taylor Heinicke navigates one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I don’t know how Ron Rivera navigates the Kyle Shanahan run strategy.

But considering the context and the relatively large spread, I’m going to pass altogether. I do lean 49ers, however.

My pick: Pass | Lean San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-115)

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5, +100 ML) Vs. Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, -115 ML)

This is the game where the Eagles claim NFC East supremacy.

The Eagles are so much better in the trenches than the Cowboys. The Eagles are going to run all over Dallas in this one.

Dak Prescott will have to carry the Cowboys to a win, but Darius Slay will be all over CeeDee Lamb. Plus, Fletcher Cox can pressure Prescott given their offensive line injuries.

But in the end, this game will be close either way. Betting divisional road underdogs is always profitable, and the Eagles should keep this within 3 if they don’t win outright.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5, +116 ML) Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, -130 ML)

I absolutely love the Steelers in this game.

That Steelers’ defensive line will hound Derek Carr, especially with a weaker offensive line unit. TJ Watt is going to live in the backfield.

The Raiders are going to sleepwalk into Pittsburgh sandwiched in-between primetime games with the Patriots and 49ers, and they will get a fired-up coach Tomlin in response.

Give me the Steelers ATS and on the ML.

My pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2 (-107) | Pittsburgh Steelers ML (-130)

New Orleans Saints (+3, +160 ML) vs Cleveland Browns (-3.5, -160 ML)

I quite like the Browns in this spot.

The Saints have talent. But most of that talent comes in the passing game, with a pass rush and secondary that rivals any other unit in the NFL. But up front, there are question marks.

The Browns are going to run the ball down the Saints’ throats. In the meantime, Deshaun Watson is talented enough to work around a good pass rush and secondary.

On the other side of the ball, I have no doubts the Cleveland secondary and pass rush can overwhelm Jameis Winston and an average offensive line.

My pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-113) | Playable at number

Christmas Day Games

Green Bay Packers (+4.5, +176 ML) Vs. Miami Dolphins (-4, -195 ML)

I still don’t believe in the Dolphins.

They have a decent roster with solid weapons and a splashy defense, but do they have the tools to take on the Packers as four-point favorites legitimately?

I don’t think so.

Aaron Rodgers is going to prove difficult for Miami in this game, especially with Miami getting this home game sandwiched in-between important divisional matchups with the Patriots and Bills.

My pick: Green Bay Packers +4.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Denver Broncos (+0.5, -107 ML) Vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1.5, +100 ML)

The Broncos don’t have my trust yet. But this is a very tough spot for Sean McVay’s Rams.

This is the only home game the Rams will play in the final four weeks.

They’re also coming off a short week after playing the Packers on Monday Night last week and will go play the Chargers on the road next week.

That’s a Super Bowl championship schedule, I suppose. The problem is these two teams have only managed to win 8 games between them this season!

Neither will be champion this season.

The Broncos’ schedule spot is pretty straightforward, and it’s always profitable to bet divisional road underdogs.

PointsBet is the only book to have Denver as the dog. So that would be the sportsbook to use for those cheering on Brett Rypien to emerge victorious.

I’ll bet on him here, although I don’t love it.

My pick: Denver Broncos +0.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, -185 ML) Vs. Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, +170 ML)

This is also the only home game the Cardinals have in the last four weeks of the season.

It’s going to be a very tough end of the season for coach Kingsbury, who has never closed out seasons strong.

The Buccaneers are in the thick of the NFC playoff race, and I expect them to win this game comfortably.

Especially because Todd Bowles can anticipate every play call the overly-predictable Kingsbury will make.

My pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-110) | Playable at number

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, -155 ML) Vs. Indianapolis Colts (+3, +145 ML)

Are we really buying Brandon Staley in the late season? Can the Chargers finally get over the hump?

There is a massive amount of talent on this roster, but these are legitimate questions out of a coaching staff that has yet to prove themselves.

I’m going to bet against it, especially against a well-coached Colts team that is great in the trenches, can run the ball, and is impressive at home.

The Colts also had their Bye week in Week 14 and come home to a long week after playing in Minnesota last week. This team will be rested.

They will be revved up after giving up the NFL’s largest comeback in Minneapolis! They will want to prove their doubters wrong on MNF.

My pick: Indianapolis Colts +3 (-110) | Playable at number

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About the author

Will has been an avid sports fan since the early 1980s. His first sporting love was a mediocre English soccer team that dwelled in the lower league...

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