NFL Week 16 Odds

Thomas Snodgrass

Updated: Dec 19, 2023

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Four days of NFL action across the Week 16 slate, with two games being played on Saturday.

And with December 25th falling on a Monday on the calendar, we’ll have a Christmas Triple-Header to close out week 16.

Eight of the 12 games being played on Saturday and Sunday have a spread of around three points, so it should be an interesting weekend.

The Houston Texans (8-6), Denver Broncos (7-7), Seattle Seahawks (7-7), New Orleans Saints (7-7), and Green Bay Packers (6-8) are all currently on the outside looking in at the playoff picture and will be fighting for their postseason lives.

The Texans are 2.5-points favorites against the Cleveland Browns, and the Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans, representing the narrow spread on a few crucial Week 16 matchups.

For more in-depth analysis on every NFL game, all the best and most current odds, and thousands of prop bets, check out BestOdds EDGE.

And before I jump into the Week 16 slate and find some possible wagering options with the best odds, I’d like to wish a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of our BestOdds’ readers.

You are the best.

Hopefully, I can give you a few profitable wagering options this holiday season, specifically in this Week 16 piece.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (+4.5, +176 ML) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4, -198 ML)

Total: Over 45.5 (-110 | DraftKings), Under 46 (-110 | bet365)

The emergence of running back Kyren Williams has added an extra spice to the Los Angeles Rams’ offense.

It’s no longer just Stafford to Kupp, or Stafford to Nacua.

The New Orleans Saints’ rushing defense has fallen apart too, allowing 126.4 rushing yards per game (24th in NFL).

New Orleans did a good job bottling up Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants last week, but Tommy DeVito and the Giants’ passing offense was such a small threat, that the Saints could stack the box against Barkley often.

If the Rams can get an early lead, Williams and the ground game can grind down the clock and keep New Orleans from coming back.

Pick: Rams (-4) | Best Odds: (-108) BetRivers

Saturday, December 23rd – 4:30 p.m. EST

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, -125 ML) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, +120 ML)

Total: Over 37 (-108 | BetRivers), Under 37.5 (-115 | FanDuel)

Once the Pittsburgh Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada a few weeks ago, it seemed like Pittsburgh’s offense was going to start trending upward.

Wrong.

Since the Steelers fired Matt Canada, Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging only 14.3 points per game and they continue to find new ways, and new players like Mason Rudolph, to help keep this offense out of the endzone.

For Cincinnati, when Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending injury, it looked like a lost season for the Bengals.

Wrong.

Since Jake Browning has come in to quarterback the Bengals’ offense, Browning has won three of four starts, produced a passer rating of 107.1, thrown seven touchdowns to three interceptions, and Cincy is averaging 26.3 points per game.

The saying is “two wrongs don’t make a right”.

Let’s see if Pittsburgh can prove that.

Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin is staring down the barrel of his first losing season since taking the top job in Pittsburgh in 2007.

This home game against the Bengals’ iffy defense may be what the Steelers needed.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline | Best Odds: (+120) FanDuel

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EST

Buffalo Bills (-10.5, -675 ML) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+11, +540 ML)

Total: Over 42.5 (-110 | FanDuel), Under 42.5 (-109 | BetRivers)

The Los Angeles Chargers just fired their head coach, lost their starting QB for the year due to injury, and their defense is allowing 24.6 points per game (28th in NFL).

The Buffalo Bills just beat the Dallas Cowboys last week, 31-10.

Josh Allen vs. Easton Stick?

Enough said.

Pick: Bills (-10.5) | BestOdds: (-118) DraftKings

Sunday, December 24th – 1:00 p.m. EST

Indianapolis Colts (+1, -102 ML) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1, -115 ML)

Total: Over 44 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 44.5 (-110 | bet365)

On the brink of potentially taking a lead in the NFC South Division, Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith did the impossible, letting the Carolina Panthers pick up their second win of the season.

A win against the Indianapolis Colts will surely be harder to come by, as Indy continues their strong run, winning five of their last six games.

The under has occurred in nine of 14 games for Atlanta this season, and I expect that to be the case again here.

The Colts could be without leading wide receiver Michael Pittman and running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 16, potentially hurting the Indianapolis offense.

And the Falcons are the Falcons.

Pick: Under 44.5 | Best Odds: (-110) bet365

Green Bay Packers (-4.5, -225 ML) vs. Carolina Panthers (+5, +198 ML)

Total: Over 36 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 36.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

Jordan Love played well under center for the Green Bay Packers in last week’s loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Baker Mayfield could not be caught, as he was in a different stratosphere.

The Packers have a chance to get back on track against the Carolina Panthers.

Carolina did win their second game of the season last week, but it felt more like the Atlanta Falcons lost it more than the Panthers won it.

Carolina’s only 3-9-2 against the spread this season, which is almost as bad as their 2-12 record in the standings.

Pick: Packers (-4.5) | Best Odds: (-115) BetMGM

Cleveland Browns (-1, -116 ML) vs. Houston Texans (+2.5, +105 ML)

Total: Over 41 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 41.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

The Cleveland Browns’ defense is elite.

Although they have allowed 20.6 points per game (12th in the NFL), that number would be much lower if poorer offensive play didn’t lead to advantageous field position for their opponents.

Cleveland’s passing defense is their crown jewel, as they are allowing a measly 178.6 passing yards per game and their 14 interceptions are tied for fifth in the NFL, with five of those interceptions coming in the last two weeks.

Houston Texans’ rookie QB C.J. Stroud is questionable with concussion symptoms, wide receiver Nico Collins is questionable, and their top defensive end Will Anderson is questionable.

I’m backing the Browns’ defense here, no question.

The New York Jets recently held Stroud to only 91 yards passing, and in Week 16, I think the Browns can do something similar.

Joe Flacco should be able to continue his stellar job of quarterbacking Cleveland’s offense against Houston’s 26th-ranked passing defense, allowing 259.6 passing yards per game.

Pick: Browns Moneyline | Best Odds: (-116) BetRivers

Detroit Lions (-3.5, -162 ML) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3.5, +148 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-115 | FanDuel), Under 47 (-109 | BetRivers)

The Detroit Lions have the NFL’s fifth-highest scoring offense, averaging 27.3 points per game.

Since their Week 9 bye, they have averaged 30.3 points per game.

The Lions have hit the over on their team total in nine of 14 games, and you can read more about NFL Team Total Betting Stats here.

Also, Detroit’s team total currently sits at 24.5 (over -110/under -110) on FanDuel.

The Minnesota Vikings have lost three of their last four games, with their only win in that time being a historical 3-0 win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

With Nick Mullens in at quarterback, there’s too many questions surrounding the Vikings’ offense right now.

Pick: Lions (-3.5) | Best Odds: (-102) DraftKings

Washington Commanders (+3, +140 ML) vs. New York Jets (-3, -165 ML)

Total: Over 37 (-112 | BetRivers), Under 37.5 (-110 | Caesars)

In the last four games, Washington Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell has thrown for only two touchdowns and has tossed six interceptions.

That means that Howell has thrown less touchdowns in the last four weeks than the number of quarterbacks the Jets have played.

That can’t be good. For either team, that’s bad.

And ultimately, I’d assume that this game will be bad for viewers.

I have to hurry up and take the under before it gets any lower.

Pick: Under 37.5 | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, -140 ML) vs. Tennessee Titans (+2.5, +125 ML)

Total: Over 41.5 (-109 | BetRivers), Under 41.5 (-108 | FanDuel)

With Drew Lock’s late touchdown strike to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to beat the Philadelphia Eagles last Monday, I think it’s fair to say that 2023 is the “Year of the Backup QB”.

Speaking of backup QBs, Titans’ Will Levis went down with a high ankle sprain, so will the former-starting QB Ryan Tannehill, who became a backup QB, become a starter again?

Or will Mike Vrabel look elsewhere on the depth chart for third-string QB Malik Willis?

Seahawks’ quarterback Geno Smith was a game-time call last week, so I expect him to suit up this week, and that gives me enough confidence to back Seattle here.

Both of these teams are trying to fight their way into the playoffs, and the Seahawks look like a playoff team to me.

The Titans don’t.

Pick: Seahawks (-2.5) | Best Odds: (-115) BetRivers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, -105 ML) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, -108 ML)

Total: Over 43.5 (-106 | BetRivers), Under 43.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

Last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield became the first in NFL history to post a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field as a visiting quarterback.

Mayfield completed 22-of-28 passes for 381 yards and four touchdown passes in a 34-20 win for the Bucs over the Green Bay Packers.

Mayfield could have a nice opportunity to put up more big numbers in Week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 28th-ranked passing defense, allowing 270.9 passing yards per game.

The Jags have lost three consecutive games, but their record of 5-1 in road games is intriguing.

Home field is not always an advantage.

I think Mayfield will continue his strong run, but with packed bags in their hands, the “Road Warrior Jags” will keep messing up other people’s houses.

Pick: Jaguars Moneyline | Best Odds: (-105) bet365

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, +180 ML) vs. Chicago Bears (-4.5, -205 ML)

Total: Over 44.5 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 44.5 (-110 | bet365)

It seems like the final five or so minutes of every Chicago Bears game is exciting, whether they win or lose.

The Bears’ defense got Joe Flacco’d last week, allowing the Cleveland Browns’ 38-year-old walk-on to throw for 212 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

This could be a bounce-back opportunity for Chicago, as their No. 1 rushing defense will look to stall the Arizona Cardinals’ rushing-focused offense.

The Cardinals ran for 234 yards against the San Francisco 49ers’ defense last week, and in each of their two wins since Kyler Murray’s return, they have averaged 136 rushing yards.

Only four teams have tallied 100 or more total rushing yards against the Bears’ defense this season, with the Kansas City Chiefs tallying the most ground yards back in Week 3 with 153.

The Lions ran for over 100 yards against Chicago’s defense twice in Weeks 11 and 14, but with the Detroit games excluded, the Bears have only allowed an average of 55.2 total rushing yards per game since the loss to Kansas City in Week 3.

If Arizona intends to get to that magic number of 140 or so rushing yards, they’ll have to slam through a brick wall.

Pick: Bears (-4.5) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5, +105 ML) vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5, -120 ML)

Total: Over 51 (-110 | BetMGM), Under 51.5 (-112 | DraftKings)

Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott has not been the same quarterback when on the road compared to home.

Prescott H/RComp%Yards/GameTDINTRating
Home74%303.6202122.5
Road63.2%216.38584.2

Outplaying Tua Tagovailoa in his own house may be too tall a task for Prescott this week.

Especially, if Tyreek Hill is suited up and ready to go for Miami.

Tagovailoa has no jarring home/road splits, as he’s played nearly identical in every situation.

Tua has been a first half monster, throwing 17 of his 25 touchdown passes in the first two quarters.

Another split for Prescott, his passer rating is 109.9 when playing with a lead, but only 81.1 when playing with a deficit.

The Cowboys could struggle playing catch-up in this one.

Pick: Dolphins (-2) | Best Odds: (-120) FanDuel

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots (+6.5, +240 ML) vs. Denver Broncos (-6, -270 ML)

Total: Over 34 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 34.5 (-108 | FanDuel)

Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos may have run out of magic, losing two of their last three games, including a big 42-17 loss to the Detroit Lions last week.

Denver’s offense will need to be clicking if they intend to get out of Empower Field at Mile High with their playoff hopes intact.

The New England Patriots’ defense is superior to the Denver Broncos in almost every category, so the Broncos may need to score just a bit more than the low-scoring Patriots’ offense.

This week, I don’t think they will.

Bailey Zappe has played well enough under center for Bill O’Brien’s offense and I believe Bill Belichick will find a way to steal this game away from Sean Payton in Denver.

The Broncos’ story appears to have credits rolling across the screen prior to the playoffs. It’s over.

Pick: Patriots Moneyline | Best Odds: (+240) FanDuel

Monday Night Football

Las Vegas Raiders (+10, + 400 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10, -476 ML)

Total: Over 41.5 (-115 | DraftKings), Under 42.5 (-110 | Caesars)

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell put on a show against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, throwing for four touchdowns.

That feat will be much harder to duplicate this week against the Kansas City Chiefs’ sixth-ranked passing defense, allowing only 202.5 passing yards per game.

The weakness for the Raiders is their rushing defense, allowing 124.9 rushing yards per game, and that beatable defense on the ground should be a welcoming sight for the return of Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco.

Las Vegas won’t be scoring 60+ points again this week, and Kansas City is only averaging 22.2 points per game since their Week 10 bye.

Give me the under here, even if the Chiefs win by 20 points.

Pick: Under 42.5 | Best Odds: (-110) Caesars

New York Giants (+12, +500 ML) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5, -620 ML)

Total: Over 42 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 43 (-110 | DraftKings)

The New York Giants lost to the New Orleans Saints last week, ending an impressive three-game winning streak under rookie QB Tommy DeVito.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in the midst of a three-game losing streak, getting dumped by Drew Lock and the Seattle Seahawks last Monday.

This feels like a get-right game for the Eagles prior to the playoffs.

New York’s 29th-ranked rushing defense is going to get flattened by Jalen Hurts and D’Andre Swift.

Hurts (74 yards, 2 TD) and Swift (82 yards), both ran well in their loss to Seattle, but if Hurts can keep the ball in the hands of his offense and limit costly turnovers, this NFC East rivalry should be little issue for Philadelphia.

Pick: Eagles (-11.5) | Best Odds: (-110) DraftKings

Baltimore Ravens (+5.5, +200 ML) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5, -225 ML)

Total: Over 46.5 (-110 | BetRivers), Under 46.5 (-110 | bet365)

The Baltimore Ravens are 5.5-point underdogs at the time of this writing, but they have only been underdogs on the spread once before this season (+2.5 vs. Cincinnati in Week 2), and the Ravens won 27-24.

Baltimore is 9-5 against the spread this season, but they have been even better in the first half, winning the spread in the first 30 minutes at a solid clip of 11-3 (78.6% first half cover rate).

You can read more about First Half Against the Spread here.

The San Francisco 49ers cover the first half spread at 8-6 (57.1%), so I expect the Ravens to stick around later into the ball game.

Brock Purdy is the leading candidate for MVP right now, but I would not be surprised if he were outplayed by Lamar Jackson on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Ravens (+5.5) | Best Odds: (-105) FanDuel

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About the author

A fan of both the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, which is rare! Thomas provides sports betting content with the intent to educate and en...

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