NFL Player Prop Bets Week 16
Three weeks remain in the NFL season, and it sure feels like it has flown by.
Category Ratings
Certain teams are battling for playoff seeds, while others are just trying to sneak in and hope for some help.
We’ve provided two player props in this article for Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans (at Dallas) and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (at Miami).
Remember to bet responsibly and keep a careful eye on your bankroll.
Read our Week 16 NFL odds and parlay picks for more information on the upcoming action.
Week 16 Player Props
The odds for both picks were correct at the time of writing. They were also shopped across all legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Mike Evans over 68.5 Rush and Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
This line stands out the most because BetMGM lists Evans’ receiving yards total for 67.5 receiving yards at -145.
Oddly enough, for a discount at -110, you can grab his rush and receiving yard total at just one yard higher.
It holds the best value across all bookmakers, as showcased below.
Odds/Line Comparison for this Prop
| Sportsbook | Odds for the Over | Total |
| BetMGM | -110 | 68.5 (Rush and Receiving) |
| bet365 | -110 | 70.5 (Receiving) |
| Caesars | -117 | 70.5 (Receiving) |
| DraftKings | -120 | 68.5 (Receiving) |
| ESPNBET | -120 | 69.5 (Receiving) |
| BetMGM | -145 | 67.5 (Receiving) |
Notes: Evans’ rushing and receiving yards totals weren’t available at most sportsbooks. Since he hasn’t recorded a rushing attempt since 2021, the content for this tip will focus on the receiving yard aspect.
The Texas A&M product has made history by recording 10 straight seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards. He’s reached the 1,000-yard mark every year he’s been in the league.
A hamstring injury suffered in Week 7 against Baltimore forced him out of three contests, including the majority of that one.
He’s currently sitting at 749 receiving yards (251 short of 1,000) with three games remaining on the schedule.
Baker Mayfield has made it no secret he wants to help his superstar wideout continue the streak.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield said of wide receiver Mike Evans’ 1,000-yard streak: “I’m thinking about it more than Mike is.” pic.twitter.com/geUh9kLedv
— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) December 18, 2024
Since coming back from the injury, the Galveston, Texas native has gone over this line in three of four contests.
He fell one yard short against the Giants in Week 12 during a 30-7 blowout win, largely due to the Bucs shifting to a running game script.
He’s managed to eclipse the line in three consecutive games, and two of those were comfortable victories.
The 31-year-old is coming off his best performance of the campaign: A 159-yard performance against the Los Angeles Chargers when he accrued a season-high nine receptions on 11 targets.
Due to being a deep threat, Evans can beat this line even with a few receptions. Against the Raiders in Week 14, he collected 69 yards on just four receptions.
Since returning, the Super Bowl champion has seen a major uptick in targets (averaging 8.5 per game), not only because Mayfield wants to get him to 1,000 yards but due to being the team’s primary target after Chris Godwin was ruled out for the year.
This week, Evans faces a juicy matchup against a Dallas defense surrendering the sixth-most yards per game (157.35) to opposing wide receiver rooms.
The Cowboys have allowed 15 wide receivers in 14 contests to record 69 or more receiving yards against them. Detroit’s Tim Patrick almost made it 16 but was a yard shy in Week 6.
Leading Receivers vs. Dallas (Past Month)
| Week | Team | Receiver | Receiving Yards |
| Week 12 | Commanders | Terry McLaurin | 102 |
| Week 13 | Giants | Malik Nabers | 69 |
| Week 14 | Bengals | Ja’Marr Chase | 177 |
| Week 15 | Panthers | Jalen Coker | 110 |
Evans will be covered primarily by a trio of Dallas defenders: Slot corner Jourdan Lewis (69% catch rate), right corner Daron Bland (71% catch rate) and Amani Oruwariye (74% catch rate).
The Bucs are four-point favorites over the Cowboys, and if oddsmakers are accurate and the matchup remains close, a balanced game script should be on the cards involving plenty of passing.
Even without balanced game scripts, Evans has still thrived recently.
Many top projection models also predict Evans will enjoy a productive day through the air.
Model Projections for Evans’ Receiving Yards
- FantasyPoints.com: 85.8
- Numberfire: 78.61
- 4for4.com: 78.6
- Covers: 78.1
- ESPN: 77.9
- FantasyPros: 77.8
- Action Network: 74
- BettingPros: 72
- RotoWire: 71.5
- Pro Football Focus (PFF): 68.2
Brock Purdy under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115 at DraftKings)
Purdy’s quarterback rating (QBR) has dropped from 73.4 last campaign to 65.2 this season.
In 16 games last year, Purdy threw for 31 touchdowns compared to just 11 interceptions. Through 13 outings this campaign, he’s thrown for 15 touchdowns and nine picks.
His pass attempts total of 31.5 appears high, as it is usually set between 29.5 and 30.5. The line might move downward come Sunday.
The Iowa State product has gone under this line in 10/13 (76.92%) contests. He is averaging 29.2 pass attempts per game.
In 2023, he went under in 14/16 (87.5%). During his two full seasons as the starter, he’s gone under 31.5 attempts in 24/29 (82.75%) games.
The only two times in 2024 that the former seventh-round pick went over 31.5 attempts were Week 2 against Minnesota (36 attempts) and Week 10 against Tampa Bay (36 attempts).
This is due to both units having extremely weak pass defenses. The Vikings have allowed the most pass attempts per game (37.9), and the Bucs have given up the third most (37.5).
The 49ers play the Dolphins on Sunday, who own the eighth-best pass defense, allowing just 205 yards per game.
Miami is allowing an average of 31.93 pass attempts, and two of its last three opponents have gone under 31.5 attempts: Houston (26) and Green Bay (28).
Sandwiched in the middle were the Jets, but they were without starting running back Breece Hall, so they opted to pass more.
Data projection site Covers’ model predicts the 49ers and Jets will run the fewest total plays (122) among all teams this week due to their play-calling patterns.
The 49ers have rushed on 47.24% of their offensive plays, the seventh-most. Last year, they ran 47.92% of the time, ranking them third.
This factor helps chew the clock, which reduces the number of total plays.
Since the spread is just one point in favor of San Francisco, the game shouldn’t become too out of reach and force them to pass heavily.
DraftKings’ -115 odds for the under 31.5 pass attempts hold value thanks to FanDuel (-120) being the only other bookmaker offering the bet at the time of writing.
Model Projections for Purdy’s Pass Attempts
- RotoWire: 28.60
- BettingPros: 29
- FantasyPoints.com: 30
- Numberfire: 30.01
- Action Network: 30.50
- FantasyPros: 31
- 4for4.com: 31.6
- ESPN: 32
